[SARC] HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK - NWS MOBILE - 630 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2008

[John Brown]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 
630 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2008 
 
COUNTY SPECIFIC MESSAGE: 
 
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST 
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA 
PANHANDLE...AND THE ADJACENT GULF COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND 
NORTHWEST FLORIDA. 
 
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. 
 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME BETTER DEVELOPED FROM EAST TO 
WEST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS TROPICAL STORM FAY APPROACHES THE 
FORECAST AREA FROM THE EAST. GUSTY WINDS...POSSIBLY UP TO TROPICAL 
STORM FORCE...MAY ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWER OR 
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER COASTAL AREAS OF 
NORTHWEST FLORIDA. 
 
OVER THE MARINE AREA NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL STEADILY BUILD 
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS TROPICAL STORM FAY APPROACHES FROM THE 
EAST. SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY BE ADVISED TO REMAIN IN PORT BEGINNING 
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA. A 
TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR EASTERN SECTIONS OF 
THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY. 
 
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. 
 
TROPICAL STORM FAY IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST ACROSS THE EXTREME 
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FURTHER SOUTH 
FAY TRACKS OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS OF NORTHWEST FLORIDA THE 
STRONGER IT MAY BECOME LATER THIS WEEKEND. ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE 
CENTRAL GULF COAST SHOULD STAY ALERT ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND 
FORECAST TRACK OF FAY. AT 5 AM THIS MORNING TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS 
LOCATED OVER THE NORTH FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR GAINESVILLE MOVING 
WEST AT 6 MPH. FAY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM UP THROUGH 
LANDFALL MOVING INLAND ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST LATE 
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. FAY WILL WEAKEN AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 
OVER INLAND AREAS OF NORTHWEST FLORIDA OR ALABAMA JUST NORTH OF THE 
COAST LATE SUNDAY MORNING OR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 
 
AS TROPICAL STORM FAY REACHES THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY OR 
SATURDAY NIGHT WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. EXCESSIVE 
RAINFALL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE TROPICAL STORM WITH STORM TOTALS 
REACHING OR EXCEEDING 15 INCHES FOR MANY AREAS ALONG THE NORTHWEST 
FLORIDA COAST...STRETCHING NORTH AND WEST OVER SOME AREAS IN 
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF THIS MAGNITUDE COULD RESULT 
IN SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING...MAKING HAZARDOUS DRIVING FOR MANY 
AREAS ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND ALABAMA COAST. WIDESPREAD 
FLOODING OF RIVERS AND STREAMS COULD ALSO CONTINUE WELL INTO NEXT 
WEEK. 
 
OVER THE MARINE AREA GUSTY WINDS FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED 
GENERATING VERY ROUGH CONDITIONS...BOTH INSHORE AND OFFSHORE. AS FAY 
MOVES OFF TO THE WEST WINDS WILL BECOME MOSTLY SOUTH GENERATING 
ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS AND TIDES ABOVE NORMAL. 
 
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF FAY... 
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND. ANY LARGE DEVIATION...ESPECIALLY A MORE 
SOUTHERLY TRACK WITH FAY...WILL RESULT IN A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM 
AND WILL HAVE GREATER IMPACTS ON OUR LOCAL FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND. 
STAY TUNED FOR ADDITIONAL FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL 
WEATHER SERVICE. 
 
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... 
 
ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT FOR SEVERE 
WEATHER OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.  ACTIVATION MAY 
BE NEEDED THIS WEEKEND. 



AFFECTED COUNTIES:
IN ALABAMA: BALDWIN, BUTLER, CHOCTAW, CLARKE, CONECUH, COVINGTON, CRENSHAW, ESCAMBIA, MOBILE, MONROE, WASHINGTON, WILCOX.  IN FLORIDA: ESCAMBIA, OKALOOSA, SANTA ROSA.  IN MISSISSIPPI: GEORGE, GREENE, JACKSON, PERRY, STONE, WAYNE.

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John Brown - KE4HIE
ARRL Emergency Coordinator
Covington Co. Alabama 
E-Mail - ke4hie at alaweb.com
Cell Phone - 251-510-1655
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