From ki4rwl@gmail.com Wed Jul 2 21:28:49 2008 Received: from mx-01.oppcatv.com (mx-01.oppcatv.com [12.181.10.220]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with ESMTP id m632Snn8028107 for ; Wed, 2 Jul 2008 21:28:49 -0500 X-ASG-Debug-ID: 1215052092-0e86004f0000-Jdvpox X-Barracuda-URL: http://12.181.10.220:8000/cgi-bin/mark.cgi Received: from wf-out-1314.google.com (localhost [127.0.0.1]) by mx-01.oppcatv.com (Spam Firewall) with ESMTP id B541FB24F7E for ; Wed, 2 Jul 2008 21:28:12 -0500 (CDT) Received: from wf-out-1314.google.com (wf-out-1314.google.com [209.85.200.173]) by mx-01.oppcatv.com with ESMTP id ewJGRg6hcd58qn4I for ; Wed, 02 Jul 2008 21:28:12 -0500 (CDT) Received: by wf-out-1314.google.com with SMTP id 28so603498wfa.16 for ; Wed, 02 Jul 2008 19:28:09 -0700 (PDT) DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; d=gmail.com; s=gamma; h=domainkey-signature:received:received:message-id:date:from:to :subject:mime-version:content-type; bh=2qSFCAHai4araKKjQkuortNKdcvVnL6C86OlAb147oA=; b=jWjMzQU2VeHVFkATgxB4MJIU1c4dMxkZiXc0RxiTkqnGeEPoT7HJk8oZ5gg/xXzswr aoz3DgWj5RlaZeBhqh/Y5gSuAEvNg48vJwafFfi949AO3eZwuF27KjWXLht0mqrvMNOG CcXu1XOEJtRS8dN4STYcRcmapC9un1PFd+26o= DomainKey-Signature: a=rsa-sha1; c=nofws; d=gmail.com; s=gamma; h=message-id:date:from:to:subject:mime-version:content-type; b=uquoFILD7hGJg7O5NtNVhF/Me9Rs6yW2BqUB6dKIGyGMRimlSujQfuQoDPbd72dlxu M+VZfdJ4n6qNosOTadywxElVX2CuXqTVutcF4tOdyPD4EKS7zOh8svEg5WJO07AJBTZL biT/u7JgcZ1b5peN4vmomOmxPevHvqamTlUoo= Received: by 10.142.223.4 with SMTP id v4mr3342622wfg.166.1215052089327; Wed, 02 Jul 2008 19:28:09 -0700 (PDT) Received: by 10.143.155.15 with HTTP; Wed, 2 Jul 2008 19:28:09 -0700 (PDT) Message-ID: <57a221220807021928k3a64083bnbe5774fa6d3af3af@mail.gmail.com> Date: Wed, 2 Jul 2008 21:28:09 -0500 To: wx-alert@alawx.com X-ASG-Orig-Subj: test MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_Part_3352_6022421.1215052089324" X-Barracuda-Connect: wf-out-1314.google.com[209.85.200.173] X-Barracuda-Start-Time: 1215052092 X-Barracuda-Virus-Scanned: by Opp Cablevision Spam Filter at oppcatv.com X-Barracuda-Spam-Score: 0.63 X-Barracuda-Spam-Status: Yes, SCORE=0.63 using per-user scores of TAG_LEVEL=0.5 QUARANTINE_LEVEL=0.8 KILL_LEVEL=4.0 tests=HTML_MESSAGE, HTML_SHORT_LENGTH X-Barracuda-Spam-Report: Code version 3.1, rules version 3.1.55000 Rule breakdown below pts rule name description -------------------------------------------------- 0.63 HTML_SHORT_LENGTH BODY: HTML is extremely short 0.00 HTML_MESSAGE BODY: HTML included in message X-Priority: 5 (Lowest) X-MSMail-Priority: Low Importance: Low X-Barracuda-Spam-Flag: YES X-Mailman-Approved-At: Wed, 02 Jul 2008 21:32:05 -0500 From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] [**SPAM**] test X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 02:28:49 -0000 ------=_Part_3352_6022421.1215052089324 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Content-Disposition: inline test -- 73, Bob KI4RWL ------=_Part_3352_6022421.1215052089324 Content-Type: text/html; charset=ISO-8859-1 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Content-Disposition: inline test

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73,

Bob
KI4RWL ------=_Part_3352_6022421.1215052089324-- From ki4rwl@gmail.com Wed Jul 2 21:33:41 2008 Received: from mx-01.oppcatv.com (mx-01.oppcatv.com [12.181.10.220]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with ESMTP id m632Xfn8028222 for ; Wed, 2 Jul 2008 21:33:41 -0500 X-ASG-Debug-ID: 1215052384-3b4a00010000-Jdvpox X-Barracuda-URL: http://12.181.10.220:8000/cgi-bin/mark.cgi Received: from py-out-1112.google.com (localhost [127.0.0.1]) by mx-01.oppcatv.com (Spam Firewall) with ESMTP id E40B5B25067 for ; Wed, 2 Jul 2008 21:33:04 -0500 (CDT) Received: from py-out-1112.google.com (py-out-1112.google.com [64.233.166.182]) by mx-01.oppcatv.com with ESMTP id Q7zSwlaHy7FNF3pB for ; Wed, 02 Jul 2008 21:33:04 -0500 (CDT) Received: by py-out-1112.google.com with SMTP id p76so368063pyb.1 for ; Wed, 02 Jul 2008 19:33:02 -0700 (PDT) DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; d=gmail.com; s=gamma; h=domainkey-signature:received:received:message-id:date:from:to :subject:mime-version:content-type; bh=X9SxQpX9MBCINd14KQ7Q/O0iSXGIpte0DS3QxtTwYlE=; b=oDlklusDU6JRd5xAQO61aMKYO8hCwKdXNzCmU7TJUrHtsVJoTMZ6WS9RVu6ZJ0ve4I PDdCeHAPAsrzQFhs1Uoon3zkjn/yCcAc66gwhkQQ0D7qMwW1i7Tqt1TElFKD/qcVcq5v 1VzGhTx3cvE8hLNzXgLacieV9Q5BhOLuPMws8= DomainKey-Signature: a=rsa-sha1; c=nofws; d=gmail.com; s=gamma; h=message-id:date:from:to:subject:mime-version:content-type; b=ERP421Ws77KjaOfCFx8cF4GEsc5jb3qPYtuEHhdVciB6vG0VokjUthJpnUylGeynvk N0fy/gzm8VI16q2mpivdVAJG4hMNcfMW7Nug9zHXEUY7aSHitIBZx3QOdIfEgicr7gmx /8VPwoZwZPQcDEjRKldk8aZMRw24j3F9iSwTA= Received: by 10.143.30.16 with SMTP id h16mr3359866wfj.44.1215052380261; Wed, 02 Jul 2008 19:33:00 -0700 (PDT) Received: by 10.143.155.15 with HTTP; Wed, 2 Jul 2008 19:33:00 -0700 (PDT) Message-ID: <57a221220807021933q42861076s73e4338f0c1ff68@mail.gmail.com> Date: Wed, 2 Jul 2008 21:33:00 -0500 To: wx-alert@alawx.com X-ASG-Orig-Subj: test 2 MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_Part_3370_17974367.1215052380263" X-Barracuda-Connect: py-out-1112.google.com[64.233.166.182] X-Barracuda-Start-Time: 1215052384 X-Barracuda-Virus-Scanned: by Opp Cablevision Spam Filter at oppcatv.com X-Barracuda-Spam-Score: 0.63 X-Barracuda-Spam-Status: Yes, SCORE=0.63 using per-user scores of TAG_LEVEL=0.5 QUARANTINE_LEVEL=0.8 KILL_LEVEL=4.0 tests=HTML_MESSAGE, HTML_SHORT_LENGTH X-Barracuda-Spam-Report: Code version 3.1, rules version 3.1.55000 Rule breakdown below pts rule name description -------------------------------------------------- 0.63 HTML_SHORT_LENGTH BODY: HTML is extremely short 0.00 HTML_MESSAGE BODY: HTML included in message X-Priority: 5 (Lowest) X-MSMail-Priority: Low Importance: Low X-Barracuda-Spam-Flag: YES From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] [**SPAM**] test 2 X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 02:33:41 -0000 ------=_Part_3370_17974367.1215052380263 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Content-Disposition: inline test #2 -- 73, Bob KI4RWL ------=_Part_3370_17974367.1215052380263 Content-Type: text/html; charset=ISO-8859-1 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Content-Disposition: inline test #2

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73,

Bob
KI4RWL ------=_Part_3370_17974367.1215052380263-- From ki4rwl@gmail.com Wed Jul 2 21:34:37 2008 Received: from mx-01.oppcatv.com (mx-01.oppcatv.com [12.181.10.220]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with ESMTP id m632Ybn8028246 for ; Wed, 2 Jul 2008 21:34:37 -0500 X-ASG-Debug-ID: 1215052440-3b9d00040000-Jdvpox X-Barracuda-URL: http://12.181.10.220:8000/cgi-bin/mark.cgi Received: from py-out-1112.google.com (localhost [127.0.0.1]) by mx-01.oppcatv.com (Spam Firewall) with ESMTP id 9CF7EB2507D for ; Wed, 2 Jul 2008 21:34:00 -0500 (CDT) Received: from py-out-1112.google.com (py-out-1112.google.com [64.233.166.181]) by mx-01.oppcatv.com with ESMTP id WlFT3LxLuC5l1JOQ for ; Wed, 02 Jul 2008 21:34:00 -0500 (CDT) Received: by py-out-1112.google.com with SMTP id p76so368166pyb.1 for ; Wed, 02 Jul 2008 19:33:59 -0700 (PDT) DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; d=gmail.com; s=gamma; h=domainkey-signature:received:received:message-id:date:from:to :subject:mime-version:content-type; bh=zFfOwkhXw7fOQWSKxGnfLw3yGaGFiw0HODLQdFH75xI=; b=etj2xs0wbBqVvTnizZb2OMhLJ37/IeUgBWavJNxlXzAUloqnuLekaiAbinGNTRhylH Xr8SvoF35TJQ4EgMByHO6exMSwFYJOwjYLq4vwvPqSL2k2i9v5makHsNTswWXhHBprXc M6NB4Ydksds63CYJYstsh/9vKD1VpmDaZz8eo= DomainKey-Signature: a=rsa-sha1; c=nofws; d=gmail.com; s=gamma; h=message-id:date:from:to:subject:mime-version:content-type; b=ez81xWUhKT+Gad4rcrRsup8bzdUgeejpmJT1v+TXcA4HHB28HrQZYKJ66IndgbpiDe 2m/xAncY/cUHjwX1w8c3EO6JiJQNRnkSmzJ4ElCw0vo37Zh6vU5mGodNa4HkR9YOIy6i TZmNx5zKVWIgm+umOuSQqRLtbNnTNxQFAqbGo= Received: by 10.142.135.16 with SMTP id i16mr3339951wfd.165.1215052438882; Wed, 02 Jul 2008 19:33:58 -0700 (PDT) Received: by 10.143.155.15 with HTTP; Wed, 2 Jul 2008 19:33:58 -0700 (PDT) Message-ID: <57a221220807021933y1ec63d4r4cb1c5e6ac8ed2ff@mail.gmail.com> Date: Wed, 2 Jul 2008 21:33:58 -0500 To: wx-alert@alawx.com X-ASG-Orig-Subj: test #3 MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_Part_3378_29984218.1215052438883" X-Barracuda-Connect: py-out-1112.google.com[64.233.166.181] X-Barracuda-Start-Time: 1215052440 X-Barracuda-Virus-Scanned: by Opp Cablevision Spam Filter at oppcatv.com X-Barracuda-Spam-Score: 0.63 X-Barracuda-Spam-Status: Yes, SCORE=0.63 using per-user scores of TAG_LEVEL=0.5 QUARANTINE_LEVEL=0.8 KILL_LEVEL=4.0 tests=HTML_MESSAGE, HTML_SHORT_LENGTH X-Barracuda-Spam-Report: Code version 3.1, rules version 3.1.55000 Rule breakdown below pts rule name description -------------------------------------------------- 0.63 HTML_SHORT_LENGTH BODY: HTML is extremely short 0.00 HTML_MESSAGE BODY: HTML included in message X-Priority: 5 (Lowest) X-MSMail-Priority: Low Importance: Low X-Barracuda-Spam-Flag: YES From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] [**SPAM**] test #3 X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 02:34:37 -0000 ------=_Part_3378_29984218.1215052438883 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Content-Disposition: inline test #3 -- 73, Bob KI4RWL ------=_Part_3378_29984218.1215052438883 Content-Type: text/html; charset=ISO-8859-1 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Content-Disposition: inline test #3

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73,

Bob
KI4RWL ------=_Part_3378_29984218.1215052438883-- From ki4rwl@gmail.com Wed Jul 2 21:36:24 2008 Received: from mx-01.oppcatv.com (mx-01.oppcatv.com [12.181.10.220]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with ESMTP id m632aOn8028278 for ; Wed, 2 Jul 2008 21:36:24 -0500 X-ASG-Debug-ID: 1215052546-3d0100020000-Jdvpox X-Barracuda-URL: http://12.181.10.220:8000/cgi-bin/mark.cgi Received: from wf-out-1314.google.com (localhost [127.0.0.1]) by mx-01.oppcatv.com (Spam Firewall) with ESMTP id 532B2B250C6 for ; Wed, 2 Jul 2008 21:35:47 -0500 (CDT) Received: from wf-out-1314.google.com (wf-out-1314.google.com [209.85.200.168]) by mx-01.oppcatv.com with ESMTP id CjqER5QDjm1WJuLD for ; Wed, 02 Jul 2008 21:35:47 -0500 (CDT) Received: by wf-out-1314.google.com with SMTP id 28so605549wfa.16 for ; Wed, 02 Jul 2008 19:35:43 -0700 (PDT) DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; d=gmail.com; s=gamma; h=domainkey-signature:received:received:message-id:date:from:to :subject:mime-version:content-type; bh=SvU9AnAVe373H30ZMaKKl8XfUT2j6Rjir4pMMUwEEN8=; b=o3p+uKzmoKjG9zgZAEH5OblCdiA3uNWlSojjclejjzxxkiqwdr8OK0qj4B1tGIPM7m X6BY5/tKXNu2ehPqIH7Ovj1vY/4JdvwBE23PUffXp0y8aUTWd5CLmoORQ+Mu1aFlyqwH +EjB3s68LCYi0ctXBnkccYxs6wzb+C6KbiC/Q= DomainKey-Signature: a=rsa-sha1; c=nofws; d=gmail.com; s=gamma; h=message-id:date:from:to:subject:mime-version:content-type; b=wZNBq2LFZ9RHkvOi2j6hcDJyPFmmtcCk2nJO5pdnKlU8VqIJp7SmVKeHjql5CzDVeb XsivSM+4cXFzwpJjszSyuqqYy1Iwn8DB6/B/Mbzkv79vuuTz+K6qau8MuZqWKvxQ66EE wqWui86Gw/LFNO+USJAmmVr8oma9cjf09Kfe0= Received: by 10.142.142.16 with SMTP id p16mr3336132wfd.277.1215052543920; Wed, 02 Jul 2008 19:35:43 -0700 (PDT) Received: by 10.143.155.15 with HTTP; Wed, 2 Jul 2008 19:35:43 -0700 (PDT) Message-ID: <57a221220807021935n1f1d881bq4096de79a8da86e5@mail.gmail.com> Date: Wed, 2 Jul 2008 21:35:43 -0500 To: wx-alert@alawx.com X-ASG-Orig-Subj: test #4 MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_Part_3385_13367376.1215052543924" X-Barracuda-Connect: wf-out-1314.google.com[209.85.200.168] X-Barracuda-Start-Time: 1215052547 X-Barracuda-Virus-Scanned: by Opp Cablevision Spam Filter at oppcatv.com X-Barracuda-Spam-Score: 0.63 X-Barracuda-Spam-Status: No, SCORE=0.63 using per-user scores of TAG_LEVEL=2.0 QUARANTINE_LEVEL=2.1 KILL_LEVEL=4.0 tests=HTML_MESSAGE, HTML_SHORT_LENGTH X-Barracuda-Spam-Report: Code version 3.1, rules version 3.1.55000 Rule breakdown below pts rule name description -------------------------------------------------- 0.63 HTML_SHORT_LENGTH BODY: HTML is extremely short 0.00 HTML_MESSAGE BODY: HTML included in message From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] test #4 X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 02:36:24 -0000 ------=_Part_3385_13367376.1215052543924 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Content-Disposition: inline test #4 -- 73, Bob KI4RWL ------=_Part_3385_13367376.1215052543924 Content-Type: text/html; charset=ISO-8859-1 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Content-Disposition: inline test #4

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73,

Bob
KI4RWL ------=_Part_3385_13367376.1215052543924-- From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 2 21:42:34 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m632gYn8028371 for ; Wed, 2 Jul 2008 21:42:34 -0500 Message-Id: <200807030242.m632gYn8028371@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 02 Jul 2008 21:41:58 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] InterWARN Admin Message - 7/02/08 09:41 PM X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 02:42:35 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) This is a test of the new mailing list. Please delete this message once you receive it. Thanks. --Bob This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 2 23:07:32 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6347Vn8028872 for ; Wed, 2 Jul 2008 23:07:32 -0500 Message-Id: <200807030407.m6347Vn8028872@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 02 Jul 2008 23:06:55 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 04:07:32 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 030405 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 1105 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2008 FLZ005-006-030615- INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRESTVIEW...WRIGHT... FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE...EGLIN AFB... VALPARAISO 1105 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2008 NOW... THROUGH MIDNIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHEAST OKALOOSA COUNTY NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN OKALOOSA COUNTY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 3 01:05:35 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6365Zn8029494 for ; Thu, 3 Jul 2008 01:05:35 -0500 Message-Id: <200807030605.m6365Zn8029494@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 01:04:59 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 06:05:35 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 030554 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME TODAY AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL WINDS THAT ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS COULD OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD AND NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS TODAY. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 3 04:08:52 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6398qn8030501 for ; Thu, 3 Jul 2008 04:08:52 -0500 Message-Id: <200807030908.m6398qn8030501@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 04:08:15 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 09:08:53 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 030858 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 500 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2008 ..TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN... AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 22.7 WEST OR ABOUT 250 MILES...405 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...12.6 N...22.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 3 04:08:53 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6398qn8030504 for ; Thu, 3 Jul 2008 04:08:53 -0500 Message-Id: <200807030908.m6398qn8030504@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 04:08:16 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 09:08:53 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT42 KNHC 030859 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 500 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2008 THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE AND SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO NOW BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A STRONG BURST OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR OVER 12 HOURS NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE APPARENT CENTER OF THE SYSTEM. BANDING FEATURES ARE ALSO BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM LATE YESTERDAY THAT SHOWED SOME RELIABLE 25-30 KT WINDS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MOST GLOBAL MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS...SUGGESTED THE POSSIBILITY OF GENESIS IN THIS AREA OVER A WEEK AGO...A REMARKABLE ACHIEVEMENT. MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGING IS STEERING THE STORM TOWARD THE WEST- NORTHWEST...ABOUT 285/8. THIS RIDGING GETS STRONGER DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A FASTER FORWARD MOTION BY LATE TOMORROW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK UNTIL THE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY REACHES A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG ABOUT 50W-55W AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MODELS THAT SHOW THE STRONGEST REFLECTION OF THE CYCLONE...SUCH AS THE GFS/HWRF/GFDL...TURN THE DEPRESSION MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST... WHILE THE UKMET/ECMWF MODELS KEEP A WEAKER TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE FIVE MODELS ABOVE BUT JUST A SHADE TO THE LEFT OF THAT CONSENSUS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS NEAR THIS SYSTEM...SO THE BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR ON THE FUTURE STRENGTH OF THE DEPRESSION IS THE COOLER WATERS AND MORE STABLE AIR IN ITS PATH. AFTER ABOUT 24 HR ON THE NHC TRACK...SSTS DROP BELOW 26C AND STAY BELOW THAT THRESHOLD FOR A COUPLE DAYS. THEREAFTER SSTS WARM SLIGHTLY AND MOST GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST AN ENVIRONMENT THAT WOULD FAVOR SOME INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS THIS SCENARIO...SHOWING STRENGTHENING AT THE START AND END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN BETWEEN WHILE THE SYSTEM IS OVER THE COOLEST SSTS. THE SHIPS/GFDL MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE BULLISH WITH THIS SYSTEM...MAKING IT A HURRICANE WITHIN 5 DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0900Z 12.6N 22.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 03/1800Z 13.0N 24.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 04/0600Z 13.8N 27.2W 45 KT 36HR VT 04/1800Z 14.7N 30.0W 45 KT 48HR VT 05/0600Z 15.8N 33.3W 45 KT 72HR VT 06/0600Z 17.5N 40.0W 45 KT 96HR VT 07/0600Z 20.0N 46.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 08/0600Z 23.0N 51.0W 55 KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 3 04:09:54 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6399sn8030520 for ; Thu, 3 Jul 2008 04:09:54 -0500 Message-Id: <200807030909.m6399sn8030520@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 04:09:17 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Hazardous Weather Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 09:09:54 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FLUS42 KTAE 030902 HWOTAE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 502 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161- GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-041015- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON- JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN- CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL- IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE- DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- 502 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2008 /402 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2008/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA... SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT... MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH THE COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING. AT THIS TIME...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER... ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOPS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER... ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOPS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP. $$ CAMP This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 3 04:32:21 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m639WLn8030992 for ; Thu, 3 Jul 2008 04:32:21 -0500 Message-Id: <200807030932.m639WLn8030992@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 04:31:44 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 09:32:21 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 030930 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 430 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2008 ALZ061>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-MSZ079-031200- UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN- INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY- COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE... TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY... SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA... FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY... MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW... WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE... EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO...LUCEDALE 430 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2008 NOW...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES BEFORE 5 AM. THESE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH 7 AM. A FEW PLACES WILL RECEIVE A BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING AS THEY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND ON TO SHORE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. MARINERS CAN EXPECT POOR VISIBILITY AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING IN AND NEAR THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 3 05:58:50 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m63Awon8031671 for ; Thu, 3 Jul 2008 05:58:50 -0500 Message-Id: <200807031058.m63Awon8031671@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 05:58:13 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Hazardous Weather Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 10:58:51 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FLUS44 KMOB 031057 HWOMOB HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 600 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2008 ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078- 079-041100- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY- COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY- GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- 600 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2008 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THE COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA... DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. DUE TO AN OUTGOING AFTERNOON TIDE AND A LARGE TIDAL RANGE...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON. DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN...ALL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 3 06:40:37 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m63Bebn8031806 for ; Thu, 3 Jul 2008 06:40:37 -0500 Message-Id: <200807031140.m63Bebn8031806@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 06:40:00 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 11:40:37 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 031138 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 738 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2008 FLZ008-012-014-015-018-027>029-034-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775- 031400- COASTAL WALTON-BAY-GULF-FRANKLIN-JEFFERSON-WAKULLA-TAYLOR- LAFAYETTE-DIXIE- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...INWOOD...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...WHITE CITY...PORT ST. JOE... WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...MONTICELLO... SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS...PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY 738 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2008 /638 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 1000 AM EDT (900 AM CDT)...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES. OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO SURFACE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS. $$ BARRY This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 3 06:41:31 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m63BfVn8031814 for ; Thu, 3 Jul 2008 06:41:31 -0500 Message-Id: <200807031141.m63BfVn8031814@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 06:40:54 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 11:41:31 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 031125 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY-DEVELOPED TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT32 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2. $$ FORECASTER BROWN WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 3 07:36:35 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m63CaZn8031957 for ; Thu, 3 Jul 2008 07:36:35 -0500 Message-Id: <200807031236.m63CaZn8031957@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 07:35:57 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 12:36:35 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 031235 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 735 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2008 ALZ056-059>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-MSZ079-031445- CONECUH-ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN- LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA- INLAND SANTA ROSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA- COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY- COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EVERGREEN...ATMORE...BREWTON... EAST BREWTON...ANDALUSIA...OPP...PRICHARD...SARALAND... BAY MINETTE...TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE... FOLEY...SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA... FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY... MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW... WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE... EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO...LUCEDALE 735 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2008 NOW...THROUGH 10 AM...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST...PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN AT 730 AM WAS FROM THE EASTERN SHORE TO ATMORE AND PENSACOLA. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TEND TO DIMINISH BY MID MORNING AND REDEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 3 08:02:00 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m63D20n8032040 for ; Thu, 3 Jul 2008 08:02:00 -0500 Message-Id: <200807031302.m63D20n8032040@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 08:01:22 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 13:02:00 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 031259 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 859 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2008 FLZ008-010-012>015-018-026>029-034-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775- 031500- COASTAL WALTON-WASHINGTON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-JEFFERSON- LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...INWOOD...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY... FIVE POINTS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY...LYNN HAVEN... UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY...PORT ST. JOE... WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...MONTICELLO... SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS...PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO... CROSS CITY 859 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2008 /759 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 11 AM EDT (10 AM CDT)...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND APALACHEE BAY WILL TRAVEL NORTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH...AND CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND COAST. STORMS MAY STRENGTHEN AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE NEXT TWO HOURS...AND INCLUDE BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. BOATERS MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE LOCALLY CHOPPY WATERS IN AND AROUND THE STORMS. $$ RUBIO This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 3 09:56:06 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m63Eu6n8032631 for ; Thu, 3 Jul 2008 09:56:06 -0500 Message-Id: <200807031456.m63Eu6n8032631@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 09:55:28 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 14:56:06 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 031454 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1054 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2008 FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-031700- INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY- CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY- WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY 1054 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2008 /954 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 1 PM EDT (12 PM CDT)...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...AS WELL AS NEAR SHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS. STORMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT TWO HOURS...AND THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY WINDS. BOATERS MAY EXPERIENCE LOCALLY CHOPPY WATERS. $$ RUBIO This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 3 09:59:59 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m63Exxn8032651 for ; Thu, 3 Jul 2008 09:59:59 -0500 Message-Id: <200807031459.m63Exxn8032651@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 09:59:21 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 14:59:59 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 031454 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2008 ..SECOND TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2008 ATLANTIC SEASON FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS... ..OUTER RAINBANDS AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS... INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BERTHA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 24.7 WEST OR ABOUT 190 MILES...310 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. WHILE THE CENTER OF BERTHA WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TODAY...OUTER RAINBANDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...13.3 N...24.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 3 09:59:59 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m63Exxn8032654 for ; Thu, 3 Jul 2008 09:59:59 -0500 Message-Id: <200807031459.m63Exxn8032654@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 09:59:21 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 14:59:59 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT42 KNHC 031458 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2008 THIS MORNINGS VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH TWO DISTINCT SPIRALING BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 35 KT....THEREFORE THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM...THE SECOND OF THE 2008 ATLANTIC SEASON. RECENT MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. BECAUSE OF THE RELOCATION OF THE CENTER...THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 285/12...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE. BERTHA IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT BERTHA WILL APPROACH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE GFS...HWRF...AND GFDL MODELS THEREFORE SHOW A NORTHWESTWARD TURN LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER AND NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...GFS...HWRF...AND ECMWF MODELS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...HOWEVER...COOLER WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION. SSTS ALONG THE TRACK ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER 48 HOURS WHICH WOULD FAVOR SOME STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WHICH AGAIN SHOULD HALT STRENGTHENING. THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS PREDICT BERTHA TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 72 TO 96 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST WILL REMAIN A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE GFDL AND HWRF SOLUTIONS. OUTER RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH BERTHA ARE EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/1500Z 13.3N 24.7W 35 KT 12HR VT 04/0000Z 13.8N 26.7W 40 KT 24HR VT 04/1200Z 14.7N 29.4W 45 KT 36HR VT 05/0000Z 15.6N 32.5W 45 KT 48HR VT 05/1200Z 16.6N 35.8W 50 KT 72HR VT 06/1200Z 18.5N 42.5W 55 KT 96HR VT 07/1200Z 21.5N 48.5W 55 KT 120HR VT 08/1200Z 25.0N 52.0W 55 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 3 10:55:03 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m63Ft3n8000566 for ; Thu, 3 Jul 2008 10:55:03 -0500 Message-Id: <200807031555.m63Ft3n8000566@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 10:54:25 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 15:55:03 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 031552 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1152 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2008 ALZ065-068-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775- 031800- COFFEE-GENEVA-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON- JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-JEFFERSON-MADISON- LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...GENEVA...HARTFORD... SAMSON...SLOCOMB...MALVERN...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD... HUDSON...BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS... MARIANNA...GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY... CALLAWAY...LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN... WHITE CITY...PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA... CARRABELLE...QUINCY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL... MONTICELLO...MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY... ST. MARKS...PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY 1152 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2008 /1052 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 2 PM EDT (1 PM CDT)...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVEL NORTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...BIG BEND...AND NEAR SHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS. STORMS MAY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE DURING THE NEXT TWO HOURS...WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND GUSTY WINDS. BOATERS MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE LOCALLY CHOPPY WATERS IN AND AROUND THE STORMS. $$ RUBIO This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 3 12:48:03 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m63Hm3n8001211 for ; Thu, 3 Jul 2008 12:48:03 -0500 Message-Id: <200807031748.m63Hm3n8001211@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 12:47:24 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 17:48:03 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 031744 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY-UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM BERTHA LOCATED ABOUT 190 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON BERTHA ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT32 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON BERTHA ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2. $$ FORECASTER BROWN WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 3 13:04:23 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m63I4Nn8001302 for ; Thu, 3 Jul 2008 13:04:23 -0500 Message-Id: <200807031804.m63I4Nn8001302@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 13:03:44 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 18:04:23 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 031802 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 202 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ129>131-142>148-155>161- GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-032015- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON- JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-TIFT- BEN HILL-IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN- SEMINOLE-DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY...TIFTON...FITZGERALD... OCILLA...DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY...COLQUITT...NEWTON...CAMILLA... PELHAM...MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS...NASHVILLE...DONALSONVILLE... BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO...THOMASVILLE...QUITMAN...VALDOSTA...LAKELAND 202 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2008 /102 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 415 PM EDT (315 PM CDT)...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVEL NORTH AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...AS WELL AS NEAR SHORE AND OFF SHORE WATERS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVEL NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. SOME STORMS MAY STRENGTHEN AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE NEXT TWO HOURS...AND THE MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL CONTAIN FREQUENT LIGHTNING...BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...AND WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH. BOATERS MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE LOCALLY CHOPPY WATERS. $$ RUBIO This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 3 14:08:40 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m63J8en8001662 for ; Thu, 3 Jul 2008 14:08:40 -0500 Message-Id: <200807031908.m63J8en8001662@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 14:08:01 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 19:08:40 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 031906 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 206 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2008 ALZ056>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-MSZ078-079-032115- CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE- UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA- COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA- INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-STONE-GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE...LUVERNE... BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON...ANDALUSIA...OPP... PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE...TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE... DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY...SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON... MOLINO...PENSACOLA...FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA... BELLVIEW...ENSLEY...MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON... GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW...WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH... NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE...EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO... WIGGINS...LUCEDALE 206 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2008 NOW... ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG THE NORTHWARD MOVING SEA BREEZE ACROSS SOUTHERN MOBILE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH AND WILL PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 40 MPH ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 3 14:53:23 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m63JrNn8001978 for ; Thu, 3 Jul 2008 14:53:23 -0500 Message-Id: <200807031953.m63JrNn8001978@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 14:52:44 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 19:53:23 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 031950 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 350 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2008 FLZ007>019-026>029-034-032200- INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY- CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY- WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY 350 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2008 /250 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 600 PM EDT (500 PM CDT)...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROPAGATE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY DURING THIS TIME WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE APALACHICOLA RIVER. SOME STORMS WILL CONTAIN FREQUENT LIGHTNING...BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...AND WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH. $$ BARRY This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 3 14:53:23 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m63JrNn8001982 for ; Thu, 3 Jul 2008 14:53:23 -0500 Message-Id: <200807031953.m63JrNn8001982@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 14:52:44 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 19:53:24 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 031950 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 350 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2008 ALZ065>069-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-032200- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-QUITMAN-CLAY-RANDOLPH-CALHOUN- TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-EARLY- MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-DECATUR- GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES...CUTHBERT... SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY...DAWSON... ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTER...ASHBURN...TIFTON... FITZGERALD...OCILLA...DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY...COLQUITT... NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM...MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS... NASHVILLE...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO...THOMASVILLE... QUITMAN...VALDOSTA...LAKELAND 350 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2008 /250 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 600 PM EDT (500 PM CDT)...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. SOME STORMS WILL CONTAIN FREQUENT LIGHTNING...BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...AND WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH. $$ BARRY This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 3 15:51:20 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m63KpKn8002309 for ; Thu, 3 Jul 2008 15:51:20 -0500 Message-Id: <200807032051.m63KpKn8002309@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 15:50:41 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 20:51:20 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 032037 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 500 PM AST THU JUL 03 2008 ..SQUALLY WEATHER MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS... INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BERTHA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 25.6 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES...165 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN MOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. THE CENTER OF BERTHA WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HOWEVER...OUTER RAINBANDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...13.6 N...25.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 3 15:51:20 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m63KpKn8002312 for ; Thu, 3 Jul 2008 15:51:20 -0500 Message-Id: <200807032051.m63KpKn8002312@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 15:50:41 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 20:51:21 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT42 KNHC 032039 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 500 PM EDT THU JUL 03 2008 THE CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH BERTHA HAVE WARMED THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...BANDING FEATURES REMAIN WELL-DEFINED IN VISIBLE IMAGERY AND A RECENT SSMIS MICROWAVE OVERPASS. A SHIP LOCATED ABOUT 45 NM NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AT 1700 UTC REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 29 KT. THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 35 KT...WHICH REMAINS THE INITIAL ADVISORY INTENSITY. THE FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED AS BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THEREAFTER...A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BETWEEN ABOUT 50W-60W WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE FUTURE TRACK OF BERTHA. THE UKMET...ECMWF...AND HWRF MODELS DEPICT A WEAKER AND SHALLOWER BERTHA...KEEPING THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE GFS AND GFDL MAINTAIN A STRONGER TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT TURNS NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT BERTHA WILL BE STRONG AND DEEP ENOUGH TO BE STEERED BY THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...FOLLOWING CLOSELY THE GFDL AND THE GFS. SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT...BUT BERTHA IS FORECAST TO TRACK OVER SSTS OF 25 DEGREES C....WHICH IS THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE SSTS ALONG THE TRACK ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BUT SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE STRONGER LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE SHIPS... LGEM...AND GFDL MODELS PREDICT BERTHA TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 3-5 DAYS. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED AND CONSERVATIVE DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LIMITING FACTORS. THE CENTER OF BERTHA SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TONIGHT...HOWEVER OUTER RAINBANDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/2100Z 13.6N 25.6W 35 KT 12HR VT 04/0600Z 14.1N 27.6W 40 KT 24HR VT 04/1800Z 15.0N 30.8W 45 KT 36HR VT 05/0600Z 16.0N 34.2W 45 KT 48HR VT 05/1800Z 16.9N 37.7W 50 KT 72HR VT 06/1800Z 18.8N 44.5W 55 KT 96HR VT 07/1800Z 21.5N 49.5W 55 KT 120HR VT 08/1800Z 25.0N 52.5W 55 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 3 16:21:32 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m63LLWn8002471 for ; Thu, 3 Jul 2008 16:21:32 -0500 Message-Id: <200807032121.m63LLWn8002471@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 16:20:53 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Severe Thunderstorm Warning X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 21:21:32 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WUUS54 KMOB 032119 SVRMOB FLC033-032145- /O.NEW.KMOB.SV.W.0207.080703T2119Z-080703T2145Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 419 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2008 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... CENTRAL ESCAMBIA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA... * UNTIL 445 PM CDT * AT 414 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS NEAR MCDAVID...OR ABOUT 24 MILES EAST OF BAY MINETTE. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... MCDAVID AND 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OAK GROVE BY 445 PM CDT... IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. LAT...LON 3094 8752 3093 8729 3090 8729 3088 8730 3085 8731 3083 8730 3081 8730 3079 8731 3075 8730 3073 8746 TIME...MOT...LOC 2119Z 172DEG 1KT 3083 8737 $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 3 16:22:55 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m63LMtn8002496 for ; Thu, 3 Jul 2008 16:22:55 -0500 Message-Id: <200807032122.m63LMtn8002496@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 16:22:16 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Severe Thunderstorm Warning X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 21:22:55 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WUUS54 KMOB 032121 SVRMOB ALC053-FLC033-032145- /O.NEW.KMOB.SV.W.0208.080703T2121Z-080703T2145Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 421 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2008 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTH CENTRAL ESCAMBIA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA... SOUTH CENTRAL ESCAMBIA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA... * UNTIL 445 PM CDT * AT 419 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS NEAR WAWBEEK...OR ABOUT 20 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BREWTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 3 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROBINSONVILLE BY 435 PM CDT... WAWBEEK...FLOMATON...6 MILES WEST OF CENTURY AND 8 MILES WEST OF WAHL BY 445 PM CDT... IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. LAT...LON 3116 8735 3102 8720 3089 8736 3099 8752 TIME...MOT...LOC 2121Z 226DEG 3KT 3098 8737 $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 3 16:32:24 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m63LWOn8002553 for ; Thu, 3 Jul 2008 16:32:24 -0500 Message-Id: <200807032132.m63LWOn8002553@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 16:31:45 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 21:32:24 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 032129 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 529 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161- 032330- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON- JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN- CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL- IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE- DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES... CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY... DAWSON...ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTER...ASHBURN... TIFTON...FITZGERALD...OCILLA...DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY... COLQUITT...NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM...MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS... NASHVILLE...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO...THOMASVILLE... QUITMAN...VALDOSTA...LAKELAND 529 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2008 /429 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 730 PM EDT (630 PM CDT)...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG PROPAGATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH. $$ JAMSKI This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 3 16:45:25 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m63LjPn8002623 for ; Thu, 3 Jul 2008 16:45:25 -0500 Message-Id: <200807032145.m63LjPn8002623@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 16:44:47 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Severe Thunderstorm Warning X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 21:45:26 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WUUS54 KMOB 032144 SVRMOB FLC033-113-032215- /O.NEW.KMOB.SV.W.0212.080703T2143Z-080703T2215Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 443 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2008 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... CENTRAL ESCAMBIA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA... WEST CENTRAL SANTA ROSA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA... * UNTIL 515 PM CDT * AT 442 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS NEAR MCDAVID...OR ABOUT 24 MILES EAST OF BAY MINETTE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 3 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... MCDAVID BY 455 PM CDT... 6 MILES NORTH OF MOLINO AND 7 MILES WEST OF CHUMUCKLA BY 515 PM CDT... IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. LAT...LON 3083 8720 3065 8731 3078 8752 3094 8741 TIME...MOT...LOC 2143Z 301DEG 2KT 3081 8737 $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 3 17:11:53 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m63MBrn8002765 for ; Thu, 3 Jul 2008 17:11:53 -0500 Message-Id: <200807032211.m63MBrn8002765@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 17:11:14 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Severe Thunderstorm Warning - Update X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 22:11:53 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WWUS54 KMOB 032209 SVSMOB SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 509 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2008 FLC033-113-032215- /O.CON.KMOB.SV.W.0212.000000T0000Z-080703T2215Z/ ESCAMBIA FL-SANTA ROSA FL- 509 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2008 ..A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT FOR WEST CENTRAL SANTA ROSA AND CENTRAL ESCAMBIA COUNTIES... AT 504 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS NEAR BAY SPRINGS...OR ABOUT 18 MILES EAST OF BAY MINETTE...MOVING WEST AT 3 MPH. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... BAY SPRINGS BY 515 PM CDT... AN EXTENSION TO THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY SOON. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING...PREFERABLY IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR A ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET OR BATHROOM. IF POSSIBLE...GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL OR DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. IF YOU ARE IN MOBILE HOME...EVACUATE IT AND GET ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A NEARBY STURDY BUILDING OR IN AN UNDERGROUND STORM SHELTER. IF NO SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER IS AVAILABLE AND A TORNADO IS FAST APPROACHING... SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...DITCH OR LOW DEPRESSION AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS. LAT...LON 3083 8720 3065 8731 3078 8752 3094 8741 TIME...MOT...LOC 2209Z 086DEG 2KT 3082 8747 $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 3 17:18:04 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m63MI4n8002808 for ; Thu, 3 Jul 2008 17:18:04 -0500 Message-Id: <200807032218.m63MI4n8002808@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 17:17:25 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Severe Thunderstorm Warning X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 22:18:04 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WUUS54 KMOB 032216 SVRMOB ALC003-FLC033-032245- /O.NEW.KMOB.SV.W.0213.080703T2216Z-080703T2245Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 516 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2008 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... WEST CENTRAL ESCAMBIA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA... CENTRAL BALDWIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA... * UNTIL 545 PM CDT * AT 513 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS NEAR WALNUT HILL...OR ABOUT 15 MILES EAST OF BAY MINETTE...MOVING WEST AT 7 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... PHILLIPSVILLE BY 545 PM CDT... IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. LAT...LON 3073 8767 3097 8770 3089 8736 3071 8736 TIME...MOT...LOC 2216Z 097DEG 6KT 3084 8753 $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 3 17:30:15 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m63MUFn8002883 for ; Thu, 3 Jul 2008 17:30:15 -0500 Message-Id: <200807032230.m63MUFn8002883@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 17:29:35 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Local Storm Report X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 22:30:15 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) NWUS54 KMOB 032228 LSRMOB PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 526 PM CDT THU JUL 03 2008 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0415 PM LIGHTNING WIGGINS 30.86N 89.14W 07/03/2008 STONE MS LAW ENFORCEMENT STRUCTURAL DAMAGE FROM LIGHTNING STRIKE TO A FEW BUILDINGS IN WIGGINS && $$ EE This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 3 17:31:20 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m63MVKn8002894 for ; Thu, 3 Jul 2008 17:31:20 -0500 Message-Id: <200807032231.m63MVKn8002894@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 17:30:41 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Severe Thunderstorm Warning X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 22:31:20 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WUUS54 KMOB 032229 SVRMOB ALC053-032300- /O.NEW.KMOB.SV.W.0214.080703T2229Z-080703T2300Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 529 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2008 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... CENTRAL ESCAMBIA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF BREWTON... * UNTIL 600 PM CDT * AT 523 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS NEAR BREWTON. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... APPLETON...6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KIRKLAND AND 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WALLACE BY 600 PM CDT... IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. LAT...LON 3126 8722 3124 8697 3103 8703 3105 8724 TIME...MOT...LOC 2229Z 189DEG 2KT 3113 8712 $$ WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 3 17:46:33 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m63MkXn8003062 for ; Thu, 3 Jul 2008 17:46:33 -0500 Message-Id: <200807032246.m63MkXn8003062@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 17:45:53 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Severe Thunderstorm Warning X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 22:46:33 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WUUS54 KMOB 032245 SVRMOB ALC003-FLC033-032330- /O.NEW.KMOB.SV.W.0215.080703T2245Z-080703T2330Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 545 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2008 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... WEST CENTRAL ESCAMBIA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA... CENTRAL BALDWIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA... * UNTIL 630 PM CDT * AT 544 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS NEAR GATESWOOD...OR ABOUT 16 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BAY MINETTE...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 8 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... GATESWOOD BY 620 PM CDT... GATESWOOD BY 625 PM CDT... IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. LAT...LON 3055 8761 3073 8781 3091 8753 3078 8739 TIME...MOT...LOC 2245Z 047DEG 7KT 3078 8754 $$ WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 3 18:04:48 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m63N4mn8003174 for ; Thu, 3 Jul 2008 18:04:48 -0500 Message-Id: <200807032304.m63N4mn8003174@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 18:04:09 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Severe Thunderstorm Warning - Expiration X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 23:04:49 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WWUS54 KMOB 032302 SVSMOB SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 600 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2008 ALC053-032310- /O.EXP.KMOB.SV.W.0214.000000T0000Z-080703T2300Z/ ESCAMBIA AL- 600 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2008 ..THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL ESCAMBIA COUNTY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 600 PM CDT... AT 600 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING OVER CENTRAL ESCAMBIA COUNTY ALABAMA HAD WEAKENED TO BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS EXPIRED...THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL ESCAMBIA COUNTY ALABAMA WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL. LAT...LON 3126 8722 3124 8697 3103 8703 3105 8724 TIME...MOT...LOC 2229Z 189DEG 2KT 3114 8704 $$ WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 3 18:10:53 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m63NArn8003213 for ; Thu, 3 Jul 2008 18:10:53 -0500 Message-Id: <200807032310.m63NArn8003213@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 18:10:14 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 23:10:53 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 032309 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 709 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161- 040100- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON- JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN- CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL- IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE- DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES... CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY... DAWSON...ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTER...ASHBURN... TIFTON...FITZGERALD...OCILLA...DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY... COLQUITT...NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM...MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS... NASHVILLE...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO...THOMASVILLE... QUITMAN...VALDOSTA...LAKELAND 709 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2008 /609 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 900 PM EDT (800 PM CDT)...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION. MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN PANAMA CITY AND CRAWFORDVILLE. A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH. $$ JAMSKI This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 3 18:23:17 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m63NNHn8003283 for ; Thu, 3 Jul 2008 18:23:17 -0500 Message-Id: <200807032323.m63NNHn8003283@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 18:22:38 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 23:23:17 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 032321 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 621 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2008 ALZ056>064-FLZ001>006-040100- CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE- UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA- COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA- INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE...LUVERNE... BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON...ANDALUSIA...OPP... PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE...TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE... DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY...SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON... MOLINO...PENSACOLA...FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA... BELLVIEW...ENSLEY...MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON... GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW...WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH... NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE...EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO 621 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2008 NOW... THROUGH 800 PM...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED MAINLY OVER BALDWIN...ESCAMBIA AND CONECUH COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA. WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 3 18:32:17 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m63NWHn8003337 for ; Thu, 3 Jul 2008 18:32:17 -0500 Message-Id: <200807032332.m63NWHn8003337@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 18:31:37 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Severe Thunderstorm Warning - Expiration X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 23:32:17 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WWUS54 KMOB 032330 SVSMOB SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 630 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2008 ALC003-FLC033-032332- /O.EXP.KMOB.SV.W.0215.000000T0000Z-080703T2330Z/ BALDWIN AL-ESCAMBIA FL- 630 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2008 ..THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL ESCAMBIA AND CENTRAL BALDWIN COUNTIES HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 630 PM CDT... AT 630 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR GATESWOOD IN EAST CENTRAL BALDWIN COUNTY ALABAMA AND BAY SPRINGS IN EAST CENTRAL ESCAMBIA COUNTY FLORIDA HAVE FALLEN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...THUS THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS EXPIRED...THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL THROUGH 645 PM. LAT...LON 3055 8761 3073 8781 3091 8753 3078 8739 TIME...MOT...LOC 2322Z 047DEG 7KT 3074 8755 $$ WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 3 18:39:18 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m63NdIn8003382 for ; Thu, 3 Jul 2008 18:39:18 -0500 Message-Id: <200807032339.m63NdIn8003382@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 18:38:39 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 23:39:19 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 032335 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BERTHA LOCATED ABOUT 105 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON BERTHA ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT32 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON BERTHA ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2. $$ FORECASTER RHOME WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 3 20:09:01 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m64191n8003832 for ; Thu, 3 Jul 2008 20:09:01 -0500 Message-Id: <200807040109.m64191n8003832@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 20:08:21 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 01:09:02 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 040107 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 907 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2008 FLZ008-012-014-015-018-027-028-034-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775- 040300- COASTAL WALTON-BAY-GULF-FRANKLIN-JEFFERSON-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-DIXIE- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...INWOOD...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...WHITE CITY...PORT ST. JOE... WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...MONTICELLO... SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS...PERRY...CROSS CITY 907 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2008 /807 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 1100 PM EDT (1000 PM CDT)...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND COASTAL WATERS. A FEW OF THE SHOWERS THAT MOVE ASHORE WILL BE BRIEF AND PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. $$ JAMSKI This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 3 21:42:33 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m642gXn8004083 for ; Thu, 3 Jul 2008 21:42:33 -0500 Message-Id: <200807040242.m642gXn8004083@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 21:41:53 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 02:42:33 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 040231 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 PM AST THU JUL 03 2008 ..BERTHA INTENSIFIES SLIGHTLY OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC... INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BERTHA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 27.0 WEST OR ABOUT 185 MILES...300 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BERTHA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. OUTER RAINBANDS COULD CONTINUE TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...13.4 N...27.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER RHOME This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 3 21:42:33 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m642gXn8004086 for ; Thu, 3 Jul 2008 21:42:33 -0500 Message-Id: <200807040242.m642gXn8004086@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 21:41:53 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 02:42:33 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT42 KNHC 040231 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 PM EDT THU JUL 03 2008 BERTHA'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS COURTESY OF A NEW BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT BEGAN AROUND 1900 UTC. BANDING FEATURES ARE ALSO BECOMING MORE PROMINENT IN BOTH CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. BASED ON THIS TREND...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 40 KT WHICH IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KT AND 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BERTHA IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED WITHIN A FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT BUT OVER MARGINALLY WARM SSTS. SUCH CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT-TERM. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND KEEPS BERTHA JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH OUT OF RESPECT OF THE HWRF MODEL. BEYOND 72 HOURS...VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT. A SERIES OF VERY USEFUL MICROWAVE PASSES INDICATES THAT BERTHA IS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT WITH AN INITIAL MOTION MORE TOWARDS THE WEST...280/12. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE RECENT BURST OF CONVECTION IS CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO RESPOND TO THE LARGE MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THIS RIDGE SHOULD KEEP BERTHA ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE A TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AS BERTHA REACHES A BREAK IN THE RIDGE. EVEN THOUGH BOTH THE UKMET AND ECMWF SHOW A SIMILAR EVOLUTION IN THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN...THESE MODELS KEEP A WEAKER AND SHALLOWER CYCLONE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST. SINCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES BERTHA WILL REMAIN A DEEP SYSTEM...A TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST IS INDICATED BEYOND 72 HOURS. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ALBEIT A BIT FARTHER SOUTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION RELOCATION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0300Z 13.4N 27.0W 40 KT 12HR VT 04/1200Z 13.8N 29.2W 45 KT 24HR VT 05/0000Z 14.6N 32.5W 45 KT 36HR VT 05/1200Z 15.5N 35.9W 50 KT 48HR VT 06/0000Z 16.6N 39.4W 55 KT 72HR VT 07/0000Z 18.5N 45.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 08/0000Z 21.5N 51.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 09/0000Z 25.5N 54.0W 60 KT $$ FORECASTER RHOME This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 4 00:45:47 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m645jln8004511 for ; Fri, 4 Jul 2008 00:45:47 -0500 Message-Id: <200807040545.m645jln8004511@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 00:45:06 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 05:45:47 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 040532 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BERTHA..LOCATED ABOUT 185 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER KNABB WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 4 03:49:19 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m648nJn8004934 for ; Fri, 4 Jul 2008 03:49:19 -0500 Message-Id: <200807040849.m648nJn8004934@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 03:48:38 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 08:49:20 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 040843 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 500 AM AST FRI JUL 04 2008 ..BERTHA MOVING AWAY FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS... AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.3 WEST OR ABOUT 315 MILES...505 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING OF BERTHA IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...14.2 N...28.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER KNABB WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 4 04:04:38 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6494cn8004996 for ; Fri, 4 Jul 2008 04:04:38 -0500 Message-Id: <200807040904.m6494cn8004996@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 04:03:57 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 09:04:39 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT42 KNHC 040859 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 500 AM EDT FRI JUL 04 2008 A STRONG BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION BEGAN AT ABOUT 05Z...RESULTING IN SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 06Z OF 45-55 KT. THESE ESTIMATES...HOWEVER...WERE CONTINGENT UPON THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER BEING LOCATED MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...AND RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CONVECTION. PASSIVE MICROWAVE IMAGES FROM TRMM AT 0146Z AND AMSR-E AT 0326Z SUGGEST THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS MOTION ESTIMATE...BUT BENEATH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COLD CLOUD TOP CANOPY. SINCE 06Z...THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED A BIT...SO I DO NOT THINK THE DVORAK ESTIMATES WOULD BE AS HIGH NOW. BEST I CAN TELL FROM FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER SEEMS TO BE MOVING ALONG THE HEADING SUGGESTED BY THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY...OR 290/12... BENEATH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 40 KT FOR NOW...TO SEE IF THE DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS AS BERTHA HEADS TOWARD SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS TODAY. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED TOO MUCH. THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE TRACK FORECAST HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD... MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CHANGE IN THE INITIAL MOTION. THEREAFTER...ONCE BERTHA FINDS ITSELF DUE SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH...THE TRACK HAS BEEN SPED UP AND EDGED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OR WEST...IN ACCORDANCE WITH A WESTWARD SHIFT IN MOST OF THE MODELS. ALL OF THE MODELS STILL FORECAST A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO ALLOW BERTHA TO TURN TO THE RIGHT LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT RECENT RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD DELAYING THIS TURN. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS KEPT CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT THE MODEL SPREAD IS SUBSTANTIAL AT DAYS 4-5. THE MODELS THAT FORECAST A STRONGER BERTHA...SUCH AS THE GFDL...FORECAST MORE OF A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION BY DAY 5...WHILE MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF AND UKMET INSIST ON A WEAKER CYCLONE CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST...LIKE THE TRACK FORECAST...IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS...TAKING A STRONG TROPICAL STORM DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM GUIDANCE. STRENGTHENING SHOULD BE LIMITED BY COOL WATERS DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...AND BY INCREASING SHEAR ON DAYS 4 AND 5. IT IS NOTABLE THAT THE GFDL AND HWRF INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE VERY MUCH IN DISAGREEMENT...INDICATIVE OF GREAT UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST AS WELL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0900Z 14.2N 28.3W 40 KT 12HR VT 04/1800Z 15.0N 30.6W 45 KT 24HR VT 05/0600Z 15.9N 34.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 05/1800Z 16.6N 37.7W 50 KT 48HR VT 06/0600Z 17.3N 41.4W 55 KT 72HR VT 07/0600Z 19.0N 48.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 08/0600Z 21.5N 53.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 09/0600Z 25.0N 56.5W 60 KT $$ FORECASTER KNABB WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 4 04:44:23 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m649iNn8005457 for ; Fri, 4 Jul 2008 04:44:23 -0500 Message-Id: <200807040944.m649iNn8005457@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 04:43:42 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Hazardous Weather Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 09:44:24 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FLUS42 KTAE 040941 HWOTAE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 541 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161- GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-051000- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON- JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN- CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL- IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE- DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- 541 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2008 /441 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2008/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA... SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT... NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING...AND SOME WILL MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT...PUSHING FURTHER INLAND ACROSS THE REGION AS THE DAY WEARS ON. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS WEEKEND...WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE THE USUAL AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED. SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP. $$ 17-GOULD This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 4 05:27:08 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m64AR7n8005761 for ; Fri, 4 Jul 2008 05:27:07 -0500 Message-Id: <200807041027.m64AR7n8005761@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 05:26:26 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 10:27:08 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 041025 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 525 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2008 ALZ061>064-FLZ001>006-041300- UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN- INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE... TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY... SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA... FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY... MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW... WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE... EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO 525 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2008 NOW... ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP INTO THE MORNING HOURS OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THROUGH 8 AM...THESE SHOWERS WILL BRING A QUICK TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN TO AREAS WHERE THEY CROSS...AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 4 05:32:14 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m64AWEn8005780 for ; Fri, 4 Jul 2008 05:32:14 -0500 Message-Id: <200807041032.m64AWEn8005780@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 05:31:33 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 10:32:15 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 041030 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 630 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2008 FLZ008-012-014-015-018-027-028-034-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775- 041300- COASTAL WALTON-BAY-GULF-FRANKLIN-JEFFERSON-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-DIXIE- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...INWOOD...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...WHITE CITY...PORT ST. JOE... WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...MONTICELLO... SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS...PERRY...CROSS CITY 630 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2008 /530 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2008/ NOW... THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR AND OFF THE COAST OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH. THE BEST COVERAGE IS CURRENTLY ACROSS APALACHEE BAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND AROUND THESE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM A TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH WITH POSSIBLE AMOUNTS UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 4 06:37:49 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m64Bbnn8005939 for ; Fri, 4 Jul 2008 06:37:49 -0500 Message-Id: <200807041137.m64Bbnn8005939@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 06:37:07 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 11:37:49 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 041119 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BERTHA..LOCATED ABOUT 315 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BROWN This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 4 07:14:30 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m64CEUn8006027 for ; Fri, 4 Jul 2008 07:14:30 -0500 Message-Id: <200807041214.m64CEUn8006027@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 07:13:49 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 12:14:31 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 041212 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 812 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2008 FLZ008-012-014-015-018-027-028-034-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775- 041400- COASTAL WALTON-BAY-GULF-FRANKLIN-JEFFERSON-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-DIXIE- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...INWOOD...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...WHITE CITY...PORT ST. JOE... WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...MONTICELLO... SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS...PERRY...CROSS CITY 812 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2008 /712 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 1000 AM EDT (900 AM CDT)...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...AND MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE APALACHEE BAY. A FEW OF THE SHOWERS WILL MOVE ONSHORE...BUT WILL BE BE BRIEF AND PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. $$ JAMSKI This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 4 07:51:11 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m64CpBn8006127 for ; Fri, 4 Jul 2008 07:51:11 -0500 Message-Id: <200807041251.m64CpBn8006127@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 07:50:29 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 12:51:11 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 041248 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 748 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2008 ALZ061>064-FLZ001>006-041500- UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN- INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE... TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY... SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA... FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY... MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW... WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE... EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO 748 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2008 NOW... ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THROUGH 10 AM...THESE SHOWERS WILL BRING A QUICK TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN TO AREAS WHERE THEY CROSS...AS THEY MOVE EAST AT 5 MPH. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 4 08:38:59 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m64Dcxn8006258 for ; Fri, 4 Jul 2008 08:38:59 -0500 Message-Id: <200807041338.m64Dcxn8006258@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 08:38:18 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 13:39:00 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 041337 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 937 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2008 FLZ008-012-014-015-018-027-028-034-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775- 041530- COASTAL WALTON-BAY-GULF-FRANKLIN-JEFFERSON-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-DIXIE- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...INWOOD...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...WHITE CITY...PORT ST. JOE... WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...MONTICELLO... SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS...PERRY...CROSS CITY 937 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2008 /837 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 1130 AM EDT (1030 AM CDT)...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF WATERS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...AND MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE PANHANDLE NEAR SHORE WATERS. A FEW OF THE SHOWERS WILL MOVE ONSHORE...MAINLY IN GULF AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES...BUT WILL BE BRIEF AND PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. $$ JAMSKI This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 4 09:22:46 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m64EMkn8006363 for ; Fri, 4 Jul 2008 09:22:46 -0500 Message-Id: <200807041422.m64EMkn8006363@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 09:22:04 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 14:22:47 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 041420 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 920 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2008 ALZ061>064-FLZ001>006-041630- UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN- INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE... TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY... SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA... FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY... MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW... WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE... EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO 920 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2008 NOW... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST FROM SOUTHERN BALDWIN COUNTY EAST ALONG THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH THROUGH LATE MORNING. AS WE APPROACH NOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING INLAND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR...INCREASING IN STRENGTH AND COVERAGE DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW STORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD BECOME STRONG PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AROUND 45 MPH...VERY HEAVY RAINS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 4 09:36:59 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m64Eaxn8006398 for ; Fri, 4 Jul 2008 09:36:59 -0500 Message-Id: <200807041436.m64Eaxn8006398@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 09:36:17 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Hazardous Weather Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 14:36:59 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FLUS44 KMOB 041433 HWOMOB HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 933 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2008 ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078- 079-051200- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY- COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY- GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- 933 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2008 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND THE ADJACENT GULF COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA. DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL DEVELOP INLAND DURING THE COURSE OF THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SCATTERED STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AROUND 45 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAINS FALLING AT A RATE OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH...LARGE HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. DUE TO AN OUTGOING AFTERNOON TIDE AND A LARGE TIDAL RANGE...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON. THOSE PLANNING A TRIP TO THE GULF BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD USE CAUTION WHEN ENTERING THE WATER. PAY ATTENTION TO THE LOCAL FLAG WARNING SYSTEMS AND HEED THE ADVICE OF THE LOCAL BEACH PATROL. DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY. A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN...ALL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... STORM SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTIVATION FOR SEVERE STORMS IS NOT EXPECTED. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 4 09:56:17 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m64EuHn8006455 for ; Fri, 4 Jul 2008 09:56:17 -0500 Message-Id: <200807041456.m64EuHn8006455@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 09:55:35 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 14:56:17 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 041449 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 AM AST FRI JUL 04 2008 ..BERTHA A LITTLE STRONGER... AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 29.7 WEST OR ABOUT 385 MILES...625 KM...WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST TODAY OR TONIGHT... BUT SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN A DAY OR TWO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...14.9 N...29.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 4 09:56:17 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m64EuHn8006458 for ; Fri, 4 Jul 2008 09:56:17 -0500 Message-Id: <200807041456.m64EuHn8006458@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 09:55:35 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 14:56:18 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT42 KNHC 041449 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 AM EDT FRI JUL 04 2008 THE CLOUD PATTERN OF BERTHA CONSISTS OF A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE LOW CLOUDS. A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS THAT WAS RECEIVED JUST AFTER THE ISSUANCE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...SUGGEST THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE AROUND 45 KT. THE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE HAS CHANGE LITTLE SINCE THAT TIME AND THE LATEST DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB SUPPORT A 45 KT INITIAL INTENSITY. BERTHA WILL BE PASSING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SO NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM. BETWEEN 24 AND 72 HOURS...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING AS SSTS INCREASE AND THE SHEAR REMAINS LOW. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR COULD INCREASE THEREAFTER...SO THE NEW FORECAST KEEPS THE INTENSITY JUST SHY OF HURRICANE STRENGTH. HOWEVER....IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND GFDL MODELS FORECAST BERTHA TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 3-4 DAYS. BERTHA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT A LITTLE FASTER PACE...290/14. THE STORM SHOULD REMAIN ON THIS GENERAL HEADING DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS IT IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. THE GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO SHIFT WESTWARD...BUT THERE REMAINS TWO DISTINCT ENVELOPES...ONE THAT CONSISTS OF THE HWRF AND GFDL THAT TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND DAY 3....AND THE OTHER WHICH KEEPS BERTHA ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED WESTWARD TO REFLECT THE SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/1500Z 14.9N 29.7W 45 KT 12HR VT 05/0000Z 15.7N 32.1W 45 KT 24HR VT 05/1200Z 16.5N 35.6W 45 KT 36HR VT 06/0000Z 17.2N 39.2W 50 KT 48HR VT 06/1200Z 17.9N 42.9W 55 KT 72HR VT 07/1200Z 19.5N 49.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 08/1200Z 21.5N 54.5W 60 KT 120HR VT 09/1200Z 24.0N 59.0W 60 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 4 10:21:50 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m64FLon8006644 for ; Fri, 4 Jul 2008 10:21:50 -0500 Message-Id: <200807041521.m64FLon8006644@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 10:21:08 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Hazardous Weather Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 15:21:50 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FLUS44 KMOB 041519 AAA HWOMOB HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 1017 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2008 ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078- 079-051200- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY- COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY- GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- 1017 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2008 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND THE ADJACENT GULF COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA. DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL DEVELOP INLAND DURING THE COURSE OF THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SCATTERED STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AROUND 45 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAINS FALLING AT A RATE OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE INLAND AREAS...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH AND VERY FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. DUE TO AN OUTGOING AFTERNOON TIDE AND A LARGE TIDAL RANGE...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON. THOSE PLANNING A TRIP TO THE GULF BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD USE CAUTION WHEN ENTERING THE WATER. PAY ATTENTION TO THE LOCAL FLAG WARNING SYSTEMS AND HEED THE ADVICE OF THE LOCAL BEACH PATROL. DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY. A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN...ALL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... STORM SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTIVATION FOR SEVERE STORMS IS NOT EXPECTED. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 4 10:34:02 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m64FY2n8006712 for ; Fri, 4 Jul 2008 10:34:02 -0500 Message-Id: <200807041534.m64FY2n8006712@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 10:33:20 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 15:34:02 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 041532 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 1032 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2008 ALZ054>064-FLZ001>006-041730- WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON- UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN- INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CAMDEN...PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD... MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE...LUVERNE...BRANTLEY... ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON...ANDALUSIA...OPP...PRICHARD... SARALAND...BAY MINETTE...TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE... FAIRHOPE...FOLEY...SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO... PENSACOLA...FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW... ENSLEY...MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE... CRESTVIEW...WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN... SEMINOLE...EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO 1032 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2008 NOW... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM SOUTH MOBILE COUNTY EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND INLAND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 1 PM WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW STORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD BECOME STRONG PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AROUND 45 MPH...VERY HEAVY RAINS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. ALL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AT 10 MPH. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 4 11:00:28 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m64G0Sn8006796 for ; Fri, 4 Jul 2008 11:00:28 -0500 Message-Id: <200807041600.m64G0Sn8006796@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 10:59:46 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 16:00:28 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 041558 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1158 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2008 FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GMZ730-750-755-765-041800- INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY- CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY- WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY 1158 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2008 /1058 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 200 PM EDT (100 PM CDT)...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SLOWLY ADVANCING SEA BREEZE FRONT OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE CONCENTRATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND AND EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN BIG BEND...AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO 25 MPH...HEAVY RAIN AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. $$ JAMSKI This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 4 11:00:28 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m64G0Sn8006799 for ; Fri, 4 Jul 2008 11:00:28 -0500 Message-Id: <200807041600.m64G0Sn8006799@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 10:59:46 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 16:00:28 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 041558 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1158 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2008 ALZ065>069-GAZ120>124-142-041800- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-QUITMAN-CLAY-RANDOLPH-CALHOUN- TERRELL-EARLY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES...CUTHBERT... SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY...DAWSON... DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY 1158 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2008 /1058 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 200 PM EDT (100 PM CDT)...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. $$ JAMSKI This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 4 11:57:32 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m64GvWn8007010 for ; Fri, 4 Jul 2008 11:57:32 -0500 Message-Id: <200807041657.m64GvWn8007010@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 11:56:50 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 16:57:32 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 041655 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 1155 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2008 ALZ054>064-FLZ001>006-041830- WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON- UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN- INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CAMDEN...PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD... MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE...LUVERNE...BRANTLEY... ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON...ANDALUSIA...OPP...PRICHARD... SARALAND...BAY MINETTE...TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE... FAIRHOPE...FOLEY...SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO... PENSACOLA...FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW... ENSLEY...MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE... CRESTVIEW...WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN... SEMINOLE...EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO 1155 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2008 NOW... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM SOUTH MOBILE COUNTY EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND INLAND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 3 PM WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW STORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD BECOME STRONG PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AROUND 45 MPH...VERY HEAVY RAINS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. ALL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AT 10 MPH. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 4 12:44:15 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m64HiFn8007311 for ; Fri, 4 Jul 2008 12:44:15 -0500 Message-Id: <200807041744.m64HiFn8007311@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 12:43:32 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 17:44:15 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 041729 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BERTHA..LOCATED ABOUT 385 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BROWN WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 4 12:55:34 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m64HtYn8007446 for ; Fri, 4 Jul 2008 12:55:34 -0500 Message-Id: <200807041755.m64HtYn8007446@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 12:54:52 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 17:55:35 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 041753 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 153 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2008 FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GMZ730-750-755-765-042000- INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY- CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY- WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY 153 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2008 /1253 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 400 PM EDT (300 PM CDT)...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND COASTAL COUNTIES...AND MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO 25 MPH...HEAVY RAIN AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. $$ JAMSKI This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 4 12:55:34 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m64HtYn8007449 for ; Fri, 4 Jul 2008 12:55:34 -0500 Message-Id: <200807041755.m64HtYn8007449@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 12:54:52 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 17:55:35 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 041753 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 153 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2008 ALZ065>069-GAZ120>124-142-042000- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-QUITMAN-CLAY-RANDOLPH-CALHOUN- TERRELL-EARLY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES...CUTHBERT... SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY...DAWSON... DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY 153 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2008 /1253 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 400 PM EDT (300 PM CDT)...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. $$ JAMSKI This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 4 13:37:15 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m64IbFn8007726 for ; Fri, 4 Jul 2008 13:37:15 -0500 Message-Id: <200807041837.m64IbFn8007726@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 13:36:32 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 18:37:15 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 041835 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 135 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2008 ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-042130- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY- GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM... MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN... PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE... LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON... ANDALUSIA...OPP...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE... TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY... SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA... FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY... MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW... WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE... EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT... NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE 135 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2008 NOW... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER 6 PM. A FEW STORMS WILL BECOME STRONG...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AROUND 45 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS FALLING AT A RATE OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AT AROUND 10 MPH. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 4 14:29:10 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m64JTAn8007999 for ; Fri, 4 Jul 2008 14:29:10 -0500 Message-Id: <200807041929.m64JTAn8007999@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 14:28:27 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 19:29:10 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 041927 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 327 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2008 FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GMZ730-750-755-765-042130- INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY- CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY- WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY 327 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2008 /227 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 530 PM EDT (430 PM CDT)...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...AND MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. OVER THE APALACHEE BAY...A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. $$ JAMSKI This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 4 14:29:10 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m64JTAn8008002 for ; Fri, 4 Jul 2008 14:29:10 -0500 Message-Id: <200807041929.m64JTAn8008002@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 14:28:27 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 19:29:10 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 041927 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 327 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2008 ALZ065>069-GAZ120>124-142-042130- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-QUITMAN-CLAY-RANDOLPH-CALHOUN- TERRELL-EARLY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES...CUTHBERT... SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY...DAWSON... DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY 327 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2008 /227 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 530 PM EDT (430 PM CDT)...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. $$ JAMSKI This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 4 14:39:19 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m64JdJn8008066 for ; Fri, 4 Jul 2008 14:39:19 -0500 Message-Id: <200807041939.m64JdJn8008066@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 14:38:36 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Special Weather Statement X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 19:39:19 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WWUS84 KMOB 041937 SPSMOB SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 232 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2008 FLZ003>006-042000- INLAND OKALOOSA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRESTVIEW... 232 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2008 ..STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING DETECTED ALONG THE SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTY LINE... AT 232 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE SANTA ROSA...OKALOOSA COUNTY LINE SOUTHWEST OF GALLIVER. THE THUNDERSTORM WAS MOVING TO THE EAST AT 8 MPH. THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND... GALLIVER...HOLT AND MILLIGAN THROUGH 300 PM CDT. ANOTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEASTERN SANTA ROSA COUNTY JUST NORTH OF MUNSON. THIS STORM WILL MOVE EAST INTO NORTHEASTERN OKALOOSA COUNTY WEST OF THE ESCAMBIA FARMS AREA THROUGH 3 PM. THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG COULD DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THE STORMS HAVE PASSED. THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN BRIEF PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 4 15:40:23 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m64KeNn8008423 for ; Fri, 4 Jul 2008 15:40:23 -0500 Message-Id: <200807042040.m64KeNn8008423@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 15:39:40 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 20:40:23 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 042038 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 338 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2008 ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-042230- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY- GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM... MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN... PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE... LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON... ANDALUSIA...OPP...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE... TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY... SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA... FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY... MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW... WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE... EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT... NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE 338 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2008 NOW... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER 6 PM. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10. A FEW STORMS WILL BECOME STRONG...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AROUND 45 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS FALLING AT A RATE OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING TO THE EAST AT AROUND 10 MPH. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 4 15:47:24 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m64KlOn8008460 for ; Fri, 4 Jul 2008 15:47:24 -0500 Message-Id: <200807042047.m64KlOn8008460@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 15:46:41 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 20:47:24 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 042031 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 500 PM AST FRI JUL 04 2008 ..BERTHA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC... AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.6 WEST OR ABOUT 505 MILES...815 KM...WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST TONIGHT...BUT SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...15.5 N...31.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 4 15:47:24 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m64KlOn8008463 for ; Fri, 4 Jul 2008 15:47:24 -0500 Message-Id: <200807042047.m64KlOn8008463@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 15:46:41 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 20:47:24 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT42 KNHC 042030 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 500 PM EDT FRI JUL 04 2008 BERTHA HAD A RATHER RAGGED APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AROUND MID-DAY...HOWEVER...SINCE THEN A NEW BURST OF CONVECTION WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS HAS DEVELOPED NEAR AND NORTH OF THE CENTER. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS BERTHA TRAVERSES OVER COOLER WATERS. THEREAFTER...THE SSTS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE PROJECTED TRACK...HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE IN THE 3-5 DAY TIME PERIOD. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND KEEPS BERTHA'S INTENSITY BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE GFDL CONTINUES TO SHOW BERTHA REACHING HURRICANE STATUS...BUT THE SHIPS MODEL HAS BACKED OFF A LITTLE...AND IS IN LINE WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. BERTHA CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE AND IS NOW MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 290/16. LITTLE CHANGE IN HEADING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS THE STORM REMAINS SOUTH OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE. THE GFDL TRACK HAS NOW SHIFTED WESTWARD AND HAS JOINED THE REMAINDER OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...EXCEPT FOR THE HWRF WHICH STILL INSISTS ON A NORTHWESTWARD TURN. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST REMAINS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 48 HOURS BUT HAS SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTHWESTWARD AT DAYS 3-5... IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/2100Z 15.5N 31.6W 45 KT 12HR VT 05/0600Z 16.2N 34.2W 45 KT 24HR VT 05/1800Z 16.8N 37.8W 45 KT 36HR VT 06/0600Z 17.4N 41.5W 50 KT 48HR VT 06/1800Z 17.9N 45.2W 55 KT 72HR VT 07/1800Z 19.2N 51.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 08/1800Z 21.5N 56.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 09/1800Z 23.5N 60.5W 60 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 4 16:34:15 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m64LYFn8008934 for ; Fri, 4 Jul 2008 16:34:15 -0500 Message-Id: <200807042134.m64LYFn8008934@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 16:33:32 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 21:34:16 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 042130 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 530 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2008 FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GMZ730-750-755-765-042330- INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY- CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY- WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY 530 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2008 /430 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 730 PM EDT (630 PM CDT)...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...AND MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. OVER THE APALACHEE BAY...A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. $$ BARRY This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 4 16:34:15 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m64LYFn8008937 for ; Fri, 4 Jul 2008 16:34:15 -0500 Message-Id: <200807042134.m64LYFn8008937@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 16:33:32 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 21:34:16 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 042130 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 530 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2008 ALZ065>069-042330- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH 430 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2008 NOW... THROUGH 630 PM CDT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. $$ BARRY This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 4 16:52:35 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m64LqZn8009290 for ; Fri, 4 Jul 2008 16:52:35 -0500 Message-Id: <200807042152.m64LqZn8009290@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 16:51:52 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Special Weather Statement X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 21:52:36 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WWUS84 KMOB 042150 SPSMOB SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 449 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2008 ALZ055-056-059-FLZ001-003-042230- ESCAMBIA-CONECUH-MONROE-INLAND ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BREWTON...EVERGREEN AND MONROEVILLE... 449 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2008 ..STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING DETECTED OVER ESCAMBIA...CONECUH... MONROE AND SANTA ROSA COUNTIES... AT 448 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM PACKARDS BEND TO 2 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KIRKLAND...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. THESE LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND... KEITH...PETERMAN...CASTLEBERRY...RIVER RIDGE...NICHBURG...TUNNEL SPRINGS AND BURNT CORN THROUGH 530 PM CDT. THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG COULD BRING DOWN DEAD TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. LOCAL LOSS OF ELECTRICAL POWER MAY RESULT FROM DOWNED POWER LINES. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...OR SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 4 16:54:39 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m64Lsdn8009316 for ; Fri, 4 Jul 2008 16:54:39 -0500 Message-Id: <200807042154.m64Lsdn8009316@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 16:53:56 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Special Weather Statement X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 21:54:39 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WWUS84 KMOB 042152 SPSMOB SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED TEXT... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 449 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2008 ALZ055-056-059-FLZ001-003-042230- ESCAMBIA-CONECUH-MONROE-INLAND ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BREWTON...EVERGREEN AND MONROEVILLE... 449 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2008 ..STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING DETECTED OVER ESCAMBIA...CONECUH... MONROE AND SANTA ROSA COUNTIES... AT 448 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM PACKARDS BEND TO 2 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KIRKLAND...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...KEITH...PETERMAN...CASTLEBERRY...RIVER RIDGE...NICHBURG...TUNNEL SPRINGS AND BURNT CORN THROUGH 530 PM CDT. THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG COULD BRING DOWN DEAD TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. LOCAL LOSS OF ELECTRICAL POWER MAY RESULT FROM DOWNED POWER LINES. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...OR SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED. $$ WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 4 17:15:04 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m64MF4n8009445 for ; Fri, 4 Jul 2008 17:15:04 -0500 Message-Id: <200807042215.m64MF4n8009445@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 17:14:21 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 22:15:04 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 042212 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 512 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2008 ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-050015- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY- GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM... MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN... PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE... LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON... ANDALUSIA...OPP...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE... TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY... SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA... FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY... MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW... WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE... EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT... NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE 512 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2008 NOW... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING OVER INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...MOVING EAST AROUND 20 MPH. WIND GUSTS FROM 45 TO 55 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 800 PM. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES IF THREATENING WEATHER IS APPROACHING YOURS AREA. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AFFECTING ESCAMBIA...MONROE AND CONECUH COUNTIES IN ALABAMA AND GEORGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI DURING THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 4 18:06:54 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m64N6sn8009725 for ; Fri, 4 Jul 2008 18:06:54 -0500 Message-Id: <200807042306.m64N6sn8009725@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 18:06:10 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Special Weather Statement X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 23:06:54 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WWUS84 KMOB 042305 SPSMOB SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 604 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2008 FLZ001-003-042330- INLAND ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- 604 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2008 ..A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS BEING DETECTED OVER ESCAMBIA AND SANTA ROSA COUNTIES... AT 603 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES SOUTH OF CENTURY...MOVING EAST AT 3 MPH. THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND... CENTURY...FLOMATON AND JAY THROUGH 630 PM CDT. THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG COULD DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 4 18:09:59 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m64N9xn8009745 for ; Fri, 4 Jul 2008 18:09:59 -0500 Message-Id: <200807042309.m64N9xn8009745@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 18:09:16 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Local Storm Report X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 23:10:00 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) NWUS54 KMOB 042307 LSRMOB PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 607 PM CDT FRI JUL 04 2008 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0600 PM HAIL CENTURY 30.98N 87.26W 07/04/2008 E0.50 INCH ESCAMBIA FL COUNTY OFFICIAL && $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 4 18:50:36 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m64Noan8009974 for ; Fri, 4 Jul 2008 18:50:36 -0500 Message-Id: <200807042350.m64Noan8009974@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 18:49:52 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 23:50:36 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 042337 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BERTHA..LOCATED ABOUT 505 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER RHOME This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 4 19:47:46 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m650lkn8010271 for ; Fri, 4 Jul 2008 19:47:46 -0500 Message-Id: <200807050047.m650lkn8010271@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 19:47:03 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Local Storm Report X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 00:47:47 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) NWUS54 KMOB 050033 LSRMOB PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 732 PM CDT FRI JUL 04 2008 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0650 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 W RIDERWOOD 32.13N 88.36W 07/04/2008 CHOCTAW AL PUBLIC TREES DOWN IN SCOTT MOUNTAIN ON COUNTY ROAD 9. 0655 PM TSTM WND DMG GILBERTOWN 31.88N 88.32W 07/04/2008 CHOCTAW AL PUBLIC TREES DOWN IN GILBERTOWN && $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 4 20:11:06 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m651B6n8010424 for ; Fri, 4 Jul 2008 20:11:06 -0500 Message-Id: <200807050111.m651B6n8010424@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 20:10:22 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 01:11:06 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 050109 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 800 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2008 ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-050230- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY- GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM... MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN... PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE... LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON... ANDALUSIA...OPP...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE... TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY... SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA... FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY... MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW... WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE... EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT... NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE 800 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2008 NOW... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...MOVING EASTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. WIND GUSTS FROM 45 TO 55 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 930 PM. ISOLATED CASES OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 930 PM. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS IF THREATENING WEATHER IS APPROACHING YOUR AREA. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AFFECTING CLARKE...WILCOX AND MONROE COUNTIES IN ALABAMA...AND WAYNE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI DURING THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 4 21:38:33 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m652cXn8010889 for ; Fri, 4 Jul 2008 21:38:33 -0500 Message-Id: <200807050238.m652cXn8010889@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 21:37:49 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 02:38:33 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 050234 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 PM AST FRI JUL 04 2008 ..BERTHA CONTINUING WESTWARD...STILL NO IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LAND... AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.5 WEST OR ABOUT 630 MILES...1015 KM...WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR. A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...16.0 N...33.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER RHOME WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 4 21:38:33 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m652cXn8010892 for ; Fri, 4 Jul 2008 21:38:33 -0500 Message-Id: <200807050238.m652cXn8010892@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 21:37:49 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 02:38:34 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT42 KNHC 050234 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 PM EDT FRI JUL 04 2008 MICROWAVE IMAGERY OVER THE LAST 12-24 HOURS INDICATES THAT BERTHA HAS BEEN STAIR-STEPPING ITS WAY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OSCILLATING BETWEEN A WESTWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD HEADING WITH EACH NEW CONVECTIVE BURST. IRONING ALL THIS OUT YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 280/18...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. A STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST- NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. WHILE MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS STILL SHOW A WEAKNESS DEVELOPING IN THE RIDGE NORTH OF BERTHA IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...THEY HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS A MORE WESTWARD MOTION OF BERTHA DUE TO A WEAKER AND SHALLOWER DEPICTION OF THE CYCLONE. THE EXCEPTION IS THE HWRF WHICH FORECASTS A STRONGER AND DEEPER BERTHA TURNING NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND 72 HOURS DUE TO THE WEAKNESS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE WESTWARD BUT IS STILL NORTH OF MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SINCE ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN STRENGTH WOULD ALLOW BERTHA TO RESPOND TO THE DEEPER AND MORE NORTHWARD STEERING. BERTHA CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A CONVECTIVE BURSTING PATTERN WITH THE LATEST BURST BEGINNING AROUND 2300 UTC. AVAILABLE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRENGTH WITH THE INITIAL INTENSITY HELD AT 45 KT. BERTHA IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER MARGINALLY WARM SSTS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT INTENSIFICATION. THEREAFTER...SSTS GRADUALLY INCREASE ALONG THE PROJECTED TRACK AND BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN. VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST SO ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT IS SHOWN BEYOND 72 HOURS. THIS FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH THE HWRF MODEL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/0300Z 16.0N 33.5W 45 KT 12HR VT 05/1200Z 16.4N 36.2W 45 KT 24HR VT 06/0000Z 17.0N 39.8W 45 KT 36HR VT 06/1200Z 17.6N 43.6W 50 KT 48HR VT 07/0000Z 18.1N 47.3W 55 KT 72HR VT 08/0000Z 20.0N 53.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 09/0000Z 22.0N 58.5W 60 KT 120HR VT 10/0000Z 24.0N 63.0W 60 KT $$ FORECASTER RHOME WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 4 22:21:32 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m653LWn8011129 for ; Fri, 4 Jul 2008 22:21:32 -0500 Message-Id: <200807050321.m653LWn8011129@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 04 Jul 2008 22:20:48 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 03:21:32 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 050320 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 1000 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2008 ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-050430- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY- GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM... MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN... PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE... LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON... ANDALUSIA...OPP...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE... TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY... SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA... FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY... MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW... WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE... EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT... NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE 1000 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2008 NOW... A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING OVER INLAND SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA MOVING EASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTING AND BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THU8THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING HOURS. MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE NORTH OF A LINE FROM WAYNESBORO MISSISSIPPI TO ANDALUSIA ALABAMA THROUGH 1130 PM. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 5 01:12:20 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m656CKn8014927 for ; Sat, 5 Jul 2008 01:12:20 -0500 Message-Id: <200807050612.m656CKn8014927@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 01:11:35 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 06:12:20 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 050556 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 630 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER KNABB WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 5 03:45:00 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m658j0n8019537 for ; Sat, 5 Jul 2008 03:45:00 -0500 Message-Id: <200807050845.m658j0n8019537@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 03:44:15 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 08:45:01 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 050838 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 500 AM AST SAT JUL 05 2008 ..BERTHA SPEEDING ALONG OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC... AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.3 WEST OR ABOUT 750 MILES...1205 KM...WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BERTHA WILL BE ABOUT HALF WAY BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES BY TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TODAY...BUT GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...16.5 N...35.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER KNABB This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 5 04:09:31 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6599Vn8020288 for ; Sat, 5 Jul 2008 04:09:31 -0500 Message-Id: <200807050909.m6599Vn8020288@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 04:08:46 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Hazardous Weather Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 09:09:32 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FLUS42 KTAE 050904 HWOTAE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 504 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161- GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-061000- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON- JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN- CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL- IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE- DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- 504 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2008 /404 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA... SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE REGION TODAY...HELPING THE SEA BREEZE TO SPAWN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH WILL HAVE ITS GREATEST INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS RIDGE MAY DECREASE RAIN CHANCES EVEN FURTHER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHILE INCREASING AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 90S OVER THE INTERIOR. SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT SPOTTERS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR ANY STRONG STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP. $$ 17-GOULD This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 5 04:15:32 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m659FWn8020595 for ; Sat, 5 Jul 2008 04:15:32 -0500 Message-Id: <200807050915.m659FWn8020595@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 04:14:47 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 09:15:32 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT42 KNHC 050900 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 500 AM EDT SAT JUL 05 2008 BERTHA IS PASSING OVER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF ROUGHLY 25 DEGREES CELSIUS...ABOUT THE COOLEST THE CYCLONE HAS ENCOUNTERED YET DURING THE USUAL DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM...AND IT HAS BEEN STRUGGLING TO PRODUCE VERY MUCH DEEP CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 06Z WERE 35-45 KT...AND WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE THE WINDS HAVE WEAKENED...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 45 KT FOR NOW. DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS...BERTHA HAS AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN AS THE UNDERLYING WATER TEMPERATURES STEADILY WARM BY ABOUT A DEGREE CELSIUS PER DAY ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. ALL OF THE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY MODELS FORECAST INTENSIFICATION THROUGH 72 HOURS...WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM REACHING 65 KT BY THEN...WHILE HWRF AND GFDL ARE MORE CONSERVATIVE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS AND IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN PEAKING AT 60 KT. ONE SHOULD NOT PAY TOO MUCH ATTENTION TO THE EXACT INTENSITY FORECAST...HOWEVER. THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE INCLUDED IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE INDICATES ROUGHLY EQUAL CHANCES OF BERTHA BEING A TROPICAL STORM OR A HURRICANE AT 3 TO 5 DAYS. WHETHER OR NOT BERTHA BECOMES A HURRICANE WOULD SEEM TO DEPEND ON HOW WELL IT SURVIVES ITS STAY OVER COOLER WATERS...AND JUST HOW MUCH WIND SHEAR IMPACTS THE CYCLONE ONCE IT REACHES THE WARMER WATERS...AND BOTH OF THOSE FACTORS ARE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN RIGHT NOW. A COUPLE OF RECENT MICROWAVE OVERPASSES FROM AMSU AND AMSR-E PROVIDE THE BASIS FOR THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 285/18. OVERALL THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES NO STRONG INDICATION THAT BERTHA WILL DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE CURRENT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY ALONG ABOUT 55W IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO BECOME LESS PRONOUNCED AND TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND MOST OF THE GUIDANCE TRACKS SHOW BERTHA BYPASSING THIS FEATURE WITH JUST A SLIGHT BEND TO THE RIGHT ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. THE HWRF IS THE ONLY DYNAMICAL MODEL CURRENTLY CALLING FOR BERTHA TO TURN NORTHWARD BEFORE REACHING 60W. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS HARDLY BUDGED ON THIS CYCLE...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY FASTER AND TO THE LEFT AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. THIS NEW TRACK IS MOST SIMILAR TO THE GFDL...GFS...AND ECMWF...BUT THE TRACK FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS SIGNIFICANT AS REFLECTED BY THE CONTINUING LARGE SPREAD IN THE LONG-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/0900Z 16.5N 35.3W 45 KT 12HR VT 05/1800Z 17.0N 38.0W 45 KT 24HR VT 06/0600Z 17.6N 41.8W 50 KT 36HR VT 06/1800Z 18.2N 45.6W 55 KT 48HR VT 07/0600Z 19.0N 49.3W 60 KT 72HR VT 08/0600Z 20.5N 56.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 09/0600Z 22.5N 61.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 10/0600Z 24.5N 66.0W 60 KT $$ FORECASTER KNABB WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 5 05:34:58 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m65AYvn8023479 for ; Sat, 5 Jul 2008 05:34:58 -0500 Message-Id: <200807051034.m65AYvn8023479@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 05:34:12 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Hazardous Weather Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 10:34:58 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FLUS44 KMOB 051031 HWOMOB HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 545 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008 ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078- 079-061200- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY- COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY- GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- 545 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THE COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA... DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...BRIEF...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS. DUE TO AN OUTGOING AFTERNOON TIDE AND A LARGE TIDAL RANGE...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON. DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON FROM SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN...WITH ALL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 5 05:44:09 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m65Ai9n8023776 for ; Sat, 5 Jul 2008 05:44:09 -0500 Message-Id: <200807051044.m65Ai9n8023776@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 05:43:24 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 10:44:10 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 051042 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 642 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2008 FLZ008-012-014-015-027-028-034-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-051200- COASTAL WALTON-BAY-GULF-FRANKLIN-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-DIXIE- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...INWOOD...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...WHITE CITY...PORT ST. JOE... WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...CROSS CITY 642 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2008 /542 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 830 AM EDT (730 AM CDT)...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE COASTAL AREAS. MOST OF THE SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 5 06:32:56 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m65BWun8025081 for ; Sat, 5 Jul 2008 06:32:56 -0500 Message-Id: <200807051132.m65BWun8025081@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 06:32:11 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 11:32:57 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 051125 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER KNABB This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 5 07:27:58 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m65CRwn8025956 for ; Sat, 5 Jul 2008 07:27:58 -0500 Message-Id: <200807051227.m65CRwn8025956@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 07:27:13 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 12:27:58 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 051225 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 825 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2008 FLZ008-012-014-015-027-028-034-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-051430- COASTAL WALTON-BAY-GULF-FRANKLIN-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-DIXIE- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...INWOOD...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...WHITE CITY...PORT ST. JOE... WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...CROSS CITY 825 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2008 /725 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 1030 AM EDT (930 AM CDT)...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. $$ BARRY This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 5 09:25:59 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m65EPxn8027895 for ; Sat, 5 Jul 2008 09:25:59 -0500 Message-Id: <200807051425.m65EPxn8027895@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 09:25:14 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 14:26:00 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 051424 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1024 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2008 FLZ008-012-014-015-026>029-034-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-051630- COASTAL WALTON-BAY-GULF-FRANKLIN-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE- DIXIE- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...INWOOD...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...WHITE CITY...PORT ST. JOE... WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...SWEETWATER... SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS...PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY 1024 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2008 /924 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 1230 PM EDT (1130 AM CDT)...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE OVER THE PANHANDLE WATERS BEYOND 20 MILES FROM SHORE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND PUSH INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. $$ BARRY This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 5 10:06:40 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m65F6dn8028150 for ; Sat, 5 Jul 2008 10:06:40 -0500 Message-Id: <200807051506.m65F6dn8028150@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 10:05:54 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 15:06:40 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 051452 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 AM AST SAT JUL 05 2008 ..BERTHA MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC... AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.3 WEST OR ABOUT 885 MILES...1420 KM...WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND ABOUT 1705 MILES...2740 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BERTHA WILL BE ABOUT HALF WAY BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES BY TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TODAY...BUT GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...16.6 N...37.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 5 10:06:40 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m65F6en8028153 for ; Sat, 5 Jul 2008 10:06:40 -0500 Message-Id: <200807051506.m65F6en8028153@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 10:05:54 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 15:06:40 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT42 KNHC 051452 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 AM EDT SAT JUL 05 2008 WHILE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS BERTHA STRUGGLED A LITTLE BIT...HOWEVER NOW THAT IT IS HEADING FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS BERTHA APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. THE CYCLONE HAS MAINTAINED A CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN BETWEEN 35-45 KT AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS UNCHANGED. CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING AS SSTS ALONG THE PROJECTED PATH GRADUALLY INCREASE AND THE SHEAR REMAINS LOW DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED THROUGH 48 HOURS BUT NOW PREDICTS BERTHA TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE AMOUNT OF PREDICTED SHEAR...THE INTENSITY IS HELD A LITTLE BELOW THE LGEM...SHIPS...AND GFDL MODELS WHICH SHOW ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION. BERTHA HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE MORE WESTWARD DURING THE PAST 6-12 HOURS AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/18. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BETWEEN 50W-60W IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE PREDOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SHOULD KEEP BERTHA ON A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING AT A RATHER BRISK PACE. THERE REMAINS A LARGE AMOUNT OF MODEL SPREADS AT DAYS 4 AND 5. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE MODEL TRACKS HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE NORTHWARD...EXCEPT FOR THE UKMET WHICH KEEPS A WEAKER TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING WESTWARD. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SHIFTED VERY CLOSE TO THE NHC TRACK...SO LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED FROM THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/1500Z 16.6N 37.3W 45 KT 12HR VT 06/0000Z 17.0N 40.1W 45 KT 24HR VT 06/1200Z 17.6N 43.9W 50 KT 36HR VT 07/0000Z 18.4N 47.6W 55 KT 48HR VT 07/1200Z 19.1N 51.2W 60 KT 72HR VT 08/1200Z 20.8N 57.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 09/1200Z 23.0N 62.5W 65 KT 120HR VT 10/1200Z 25.0N 67.0W 65 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 5 11:36:20 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m65GaKn8028715 for ; Sat, 5 Jul 2008 11:36:20 -0500 Message-Id: <200807051636.m65GaKn8028715@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 11:35:34 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 16:36:20 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 051634 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1234 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2008 FLZ007>019-026>029-034-051845- INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY- CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY- WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY 1234 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2008 /1134 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 245 PM EDT (145 PM CDT)...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND PUSH INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN BIG BEND COUNTIES OF FRANKLIN...LIBERTY...GADSDEN...WAKULLA AND LEON. $$ BARRY This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 5 11:36:20 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m65GaKn8028718 for ; Sat, 5 Jul 2008 11:36:20 -0500 Message-Id: <200807051636.m65GaKn8028718@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 11:35:34 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 16:36:21 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 051634 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1234 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2008 ALZ065>069-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-051845- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-QUITMAN-CLAY-RANDOLPH-CALHOUN- TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-EARLY- MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-DECATUR- GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES...CUTHBERT... SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY...DAWSON... ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTER...ASHBURN...TIFTON... FITZGERALD...OCILLA...DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY...COLQUITT... NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM...MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS... NASHVILLE...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO...THOMASVILLE... QUITMAN...VALDOSTA...LAKELAND 1234 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2008 /1134 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 245 PM EDT (145 PM CDT)...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. $$ BARRY This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 5 12:24:05 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m65HO5n8028987 for ; Sat, 5 Jul 2008 12:24:05 -0500 Message-Id: <200807051724.m65HO5n8028987@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 12:23:19 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 17:24:06 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 051721 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 885 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BROWN This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 5 12:52:45 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m65Hqjn8029218 for ; Sat, 5 Jul 2008 12:52:45 -0500 Message-Id: <200807051752.m65Hqjn8029218@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 12:51:59 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 17:52:46 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 051751 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 1251 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008 ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-060000- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY- GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM... MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN... PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE... LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON... ANDALUSIA...OPP...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE... TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY... SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA... FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY... MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW... WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE... EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT... NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE 1251 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008 NOW... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE TO SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA. THE GREATEST THREAT WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ALONG WITH WINDS GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH. WHILE NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...AN ISOLATED STORM COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE AN PRODUCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH AND PENNY SIZE HAIL. IF OUTDOORS TODAY AND YOU HEAR THUNDER...BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO A PLACE OF SHELTER QUICKLY AS LIGHTNING CAN BE A THREAT TO YOUR SAFETY EVEN IF THE THUNDERSTORM IS MANY MILES AWAY FROM YOUR LOCATION. IF DRIVING...BE PREPARED TO SLOW YOUR DRIVING SPEEDS IF YOU ENCOUNTER VISIBILITY REDUCING HEAVY RAIN. DURING AND FOLLOWING HEAVY RAINS...ROADWAYS WILL HAVE PONDING WATER WHICH CAN INCREASE THE POTENTIAL OF HYDROPLANING. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 5 13:34:26 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m65IYQn8029574 for ; Sat, 5 Jul 2008 13:34:26 -0500 Message-Id: <200807051834.m65IYQn8029574@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 13:33:39 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 18:34:26 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 051832 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 232 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2008 FLZ007>019-026>029-034-052045- INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY- CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY- WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY 232 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2008 /132 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 430 PM EDT (330 PM CDT)...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND PUSH INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF THE INLAND FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FROM INLAND WALTON EAST THROUGH WASHINGTON...CENTRAL CALHOUN AND LEON COUNTIES. A FEW STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUST TO 30 MPH... BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL. $$ BLOCK This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 5 13:34:26 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m65IYQn8029577 for ; Sat, 5 Jul 2008 13:34:26 -0500 Message-Id: <200807051834.m65IYQn8029577@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 13:33:39 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 18:34:26 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 051832 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 232 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2008 ALZ065>069-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-052045- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-QUITMAN-CLAY-RANDOLPH-CALHOUN- TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-EARLY- MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-DECATUR- GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES...CUTHBERT... SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY...DAWSON... ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTER...ASHBURN...TIFTON... FITZGERALD...OCILLA...DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY...COLQUITT... NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM...MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS... NASHVILLE...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO...THOMASVILLE... QUITMAN...VALDOSTA...LAKELAND 232 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2008 /132 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 430 PM EDT (330 PM CDT)...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. INITIALLY...MOST OF THE GEORGIA PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM MILLER TO LEE COUNTIES. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH...HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL. $$ BLOCK This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 5 14:23:17 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m65JNHn8030011 for ; Sat, 5 Jul 2008 14:23:17 -0500 Message-Id: <200807051923.m65JNHn8030011@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 14:22:30 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Local Storm Report X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 19:23:17 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) NWUS52 KTAE 051914 LSRTAE PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 314 PM EDT SAT JUL 05 2008 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0300 PM HAIL SCREAMER 31.66N 85.21W 07/05/2008 E1.00 INCH HENRY AL LAW ENFORCEMENT && $$ FOURNIER This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 5 14:55:54 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m65Jtsn8030273 for ; Sat, 5 Jul 2008 14:55:54 -0500 Message-Id: <200807051955.m65Jtsn8030273@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 14:55:08 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Special Weather Statement X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 19:55:54 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WWUS84 KMOB 051953 SPSMOB SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 253 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008 ALZ052-053-055-056-059-062-052045- ESCAMBIA-WASHINGTON-CONECUH-MONROE-CLARKE-UPPER BALDWIN- 253 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008 ..STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING DETECTED OVER ESCAMBIA... WASHINGTON...CONECUH...MONROE...CLARKE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES... AT 251 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF CARLTON TO MEGARGEL...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 17 MPH. THESE LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND... ELISKA...CARLTON...MT PLEASANT...GOODWAY...URIAH...CHRYSLER AND MINEOLA THROUGH 345 PM CDT. THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG COULD DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED. THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN BRIEF PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING. $$ WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 5 15:42:33 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m65KgXn8030687 for ; Sat, 5 Jul 2008 15:42:33 -0500 Message-Id: <200807052042.m65KgXn8030687@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 15:41:46 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 20:42:33 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 052034 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 500 PM AST SAT JUL 05 2008 ..BERTHA RACING WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC... AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.3 WEST OR ABOUT 1015 MILES...1635 KM...WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND ABOUT 1570 MILES...2530 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK BERTHA WILL REMAIN OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...16.7 N...39.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 5 15:42:33 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m65KgXn8030690 for ; Sat, 5 Jul 2008 15:42:33 -0500 Message-Id: <200807052042.m65KgXn8030690@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 15:41:46 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 20:42:33 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT42 KNHC 052040 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 500 PM EDT SAT JUL 05 2008 BERTHA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THIS MORNING. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A UNANIMOUS 45 KT...WHICH REMAINS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING ALONG THE PROJECTED PATH. BERTHA IS CURRENTLY OVER SSTS OF ABOUT 25 DEGREES CELSIUS...BUT THE SSTS WILL BE INCREASING BY ABOUT ONE DEGREE PER DAY DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW AT LEAST DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS...BUT PROJECTED TO INCREASE A LITTLE THEREAFTER. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WHICH SHOWED BERTHA BECOMING A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 3 DAYS...FOLLOWED BY LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE HWRF... GFDL...LGEM AND SHIPS MODELS. BERTHA CONTINUES RACING WESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 275/18. A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER...THERE IS A VERY LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE MODELS WHICH MAINTAIN A DEEPER AND STRONGER BERTHA TURN THE CYCLONE MORE NORTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...THE MODELS THAT DEPICT A WEAKER AND SHALLOWER CYCLONE CONTINUE TO TRACK IT WESTWARD SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK ASSUMES THAT BERTHA WILL REMAIN DEEP ENOUGH TO DECELERATE DUE TO THE WEAKER RIDGE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT SIMILAR THEREAFTER...AND IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF...NOGAPS...AND THE GUNA MODEL CONSENSUS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF BERTHA WILL EVER POSE A THREAT TO ANY LAND AREAS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/2100Z 16.7N 39.3W 45 KT 12HR VT 06/0600Z 17.1N 42.1W 45 KT 24HR VT 06/1800Z 17.8N 45.9W 50 KT 36HR VT 07/0600Z 18.5N 49.5W 55 KT 48HR VT 07/1800Z 19.3N 52.8W 60 KT 72HR VT 08/1800Z 20.8N 58.1W 65 KT 96HR VT 09/1800Z 22.5N 63.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 10/1800Z 25.0N 67.0W 65 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 5 15:56:59 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m65Kuxn8031496 for ; Sat, 5 Jul 2008 15:56:59 -0500 Message-Id: <200807052056.m65Kuxn8031496@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 15:56:13 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Special Weather Statement X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 20:57:00 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WWUS84 KMOB 052054 SPSMOB SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 354 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008 ALZ056-052130- CONECUH- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EVERGREEN... 354 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008 ..A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS BEING DETECTED OVER CONECUH COUNTY... AT 351 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES WEST OF BELLEVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 13 MPH. THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND... BELLEVILLE...LOREE...I65 AND US 84...CHINA...EVERGREEN AND I65 AND AL 83 THROUGH 430 PM CDT. THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG COULD DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. THIS STORM COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN BRIEF PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING. $$ WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 5 16:07:07 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m65L77n8032133 for ; Sat, 5 Jul 2008 16:07:07 -0500 Message-Id: <200807052107.m65L77n8032133@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 16:06:20 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Significant Weather Alert X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 21:07:07 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WWUS82 KTAE 052104 SPSTAE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 504 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2008 FLZ007-009-052145- HOLMES-INLAND WALTON- 404 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008 ..A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR HOLMES AND WALTON COUNTIES... * UNTIL 445 PM CDT AT 403 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...MOVING EAST AT 6 MPH. DIME SIZE HAIL...OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...AND WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS...AND IS ALSO PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. RELAY REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...YOU MAY CONTACT THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. $$ 24-BLOCK WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 5 16:31:29 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m65LVTn8001174 for ; Sat, 5 Jul 2008 16:31:29 -0500 Message-Id: <200807052131.m65LVTn8001174@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 16:30:42 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Local Storm Report X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 21:31:29 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) NWUS52 KTAE 052114 LSRTAE PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 514 PM EDT SAT JUL 05 2008 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0430 PM TSTM WND DMG 12 W OCILLA 31.60N 83.45W 07/05/2008 IRWIN GA EMERGENCY MNGR TREES DOWN ON WHITE RIVER ROAD. && $$ JAMSKI This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 5 16:44:41 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m65Lifn8002037 for ; Sat, 5 Jul 2008 16:44:41 -0500 Message-Id: <200807052144.m65Lifn8002037@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 16:43:54 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 21:44:41 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 052140 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 440 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008 ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-052345- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY- GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM... MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN... PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE... LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON... ANDALUSIA...OPP...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE... TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY... SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA... FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY... MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW... WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE... EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT... NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE 440 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008 NOW... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER INLAND AREAS SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE COAST AROUND 10 MPH. WIND GUSTS FROM 35 TO 45 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AFFECTING MOBILE...BALDWIN CONECUH...COVINGTON...BUTLER AND CRENSHAW COUNTIES IN ALABAMA...AND ESCAMBIA AND SANTA ROSA COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH ALONG WITH PENNY SIZE HAIL. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS IF THREATENING WEATHER IS APPROACHING YOURS AREA. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 5 16:58:06 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m65Lw6n8002886 for ; Sat, 5 Jul 2008 16:58:06 -0500 Message-Id: <200807052158.m65Lw6n8002886@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 16:57:19 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Special Weather Statement X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 21:58:06 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WWUS84 KMOB 052156 SPSMOB SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 454 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008 ALZ057-058-052345- BUTLER-CRENSHAW- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LUVERNE... 454 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008 ..STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING DETECTED OVER BUTLER AND CRENSHAW COUNTIES... AT 452 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5 MILES NORTH OF HONORAVILLE TO 2 MILES EAST OF PIGEON CREEK...MOVING EAST AT 13 MPH. THIS AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...HONORAVILLE...SAVILLE...RUTLEDGE AND BRADLEYTON THROUGH 630 PM CDT. THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG COULD DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED. $$ WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 5 17:28:36 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m65MSan8004804 for ; Sat, 5 Jul 2008 17:28:36 -0500 Message-Id: <200807052228.m65MSan8004804@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 17:27:49 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Significant Weather Alert X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 22:28:36 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WWUS82 KTAE 052226 SPSTAE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 620 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ008>011-016-GAZ127-129-142>148-155>161-052315- BAKER-BERRIEN-BROOKS-COASTAL WALTON-COFFEE-COLQUITT-COOK-DALE-DECATUR-EARLY-GADSDEN-GENEVA-GRADY- HENRY-HOLMES-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LANIER-LOWNDES-MILLER-MITCHELL-SEMINOLE- THOMAS-TIFT-WASHINGTON-WORTH- 620 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2008 ..SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR BAKER...BERRIEN... BROOKS...COFFEE...COLQUITT...COOK...DALE...DECATUR...EARLY... GADSDEN...GENEVA...GRADY...HENRY...HOLMES...HOUSTON...JACKSON... LANIER...LOWNDES...MILLER...MITCHELL...SEMINOLE...THOMAS...TIFT... WALTON...WASHINGTON AND WORTH COUNTIES... * UNTIL 715 PM EDT/615 PM CDT/ AT 615 PM EDT/515 PM CDT/...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LARGE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED MULTI-COUNTY AREA OF POSSIBLE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS BOUNDED BY WALTON COUNTY FLORIDA TO BROOKS COUNTY GEORGIA ON THE SOUTH...AND COFFEE COUNTY ALABAMA TO BERRIEN COUNTY GEORGIA ON THE NORTH. THE STORMS WERE SAGGING SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH. DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS. SOME HAVE A HISTORY OF KNOCKING DOWN TREE LIMBS. THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS...AND IS ALSO PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. RELAY REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...YOU MAY CONTACT THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. $$ 24-BLOCK This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 5 17:28:36 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m65MSan8004808 for ; Sat, 5 Jul 2008 17:28:36 -0500 Message-Id: <200807052228.m65MSan8004808@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 17:27:49 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Special Weather Statement X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 22:28:36 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WWUS84 KMOB 052226 SPSMOB SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 525 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008 ALZ060-052315- COVINGTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANDALUSIA... 525 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008 ..STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING DETECTED OVER COVINGTON COUNTY... AT 520 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6 MILES NORTH OF EODA TO NEAR SANFORD...MOVING EAST AT 8 MPH. THESE LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...BABBIE...OPP AND ANDALUSIA THROUGH 615 PM CDT. THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG COULD DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED. $$ WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 5 17:56:01 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m65Mu0n8006509 for ; Sat, 5 Jul 2008 17:56:01 -0500 Message-Id: <200807052256.m65Mu0n8006509@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 17:55:14 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Special Weather Statement X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 22:56:01 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WWUS84 KMOB 052253 SPSMOB SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 553 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008 FLZ003-004-052345- INLAND SANTA ROSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA- 553 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008 ..STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING DETECTED OVER SANTA ROSA COUNTY... AT 543 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3 MILES EAST OF MILTON NEAR WHITING FIELD TO NEAR PACE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 16 MPH. THESE LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND... BAGDAD THROUGH 645 PM CDT. THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG COULD DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 5 18:02:59 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m65N2xn8006950 for ; Sat, 5 Jul 2008 18:02:59 -0500 Message-Id: <200807052302.m65N2xn8006950@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 18:02:13 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Urban/Small Stream Flood Advisory X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 23:03:00 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WGUS82 KTAE 052301 FLSTAE FLOOD ADVISORY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 701 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2008 ALC031-061-060000- /O.NEW.KTAE.FA.Y.0017.080705T2301Z-080706T0000Z/ /00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ 601 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED AN * URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IN... SOUTHERN COFFEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF ENTERPRISE... WESTERN GENEVA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF GENEVA... * UNTIL 700 PM CDT * AT 600 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A CLUSTER OF STRONG AND SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE AFFECTED AREAS. THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...WITH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE FLOODING OF ROAD INTERSECTIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND HIGHWAYS IS EXPECTED. DRIVERS SHOULD REDUCE SPEEDS TO AVOID POSSIBLE HYDROPLANING. LAT...LON 3134 8617 3135 8580 3100 8582 3100 8618 $$ 8-JAMSKI This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 5 18:18:19 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m65NIJn8007900 for ; Sat, 5 Jul 2008 18:18:19 -0500 Message-Id: <200807052318.m65NIJn8007900@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 18:17:32 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Significant Weather Alert X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 23:18:19 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WWUS82 KTAE 052316 SPSTAE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 714 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2008 ALZ065-066-068-069-FLZ007>011-GAZ155>161-060015- BROOKS-COASTAL WALTON-COFFEE-DALE-DECATUR-GENEVA-GRADY-HOLMES-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-JACKSON-LANIER-LOWNDES-SEMINOLE-THOMAS-WASHINGTON- 614 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008 ..SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR BROOKS...COFFEE...DALE... DECATUR...GENEVA...GRADY...HOLMES...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LANIER... LOWNDES...SEMINOLE...THOMAS...WALTON AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES... * UNTIL 715 PM CDT/815 PM EDT/ AT 708 PM EDT/600 PM CDT/...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SAGGING MULTI-COUNTY LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG ..BOUNDED BY WALTON COUNTY FLORIDA EAST TO THE LOWNDES-MADISON COUNTY BORDER ON THE SOUTH...AND BY COFFEE COUNTY ALABAMA SOUTHEAST TO SEMINOLE COUNTY GEORGIA AND THEN EAST TO LANIER COUNTY ON THE NORTH. THE STORMS WERE LOCATED AT THE BASE OF A DIGGING TROUGH AND WERE DROPPING SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH. THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG COULD DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS...AND IS ALSO PRODUCING EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. RELAY REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...YOU MAY CONTACT THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. $$ 24-BLOCK This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 5 18:33:37 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m65NXbn8008850 for ; Sat, 5 Jul 2008 18:33:37 -0500 Message-Id: <200807052333.m65NXbn8008850@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 18:32:50 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Local Storm Report X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 23:33:37 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) NWUS52 KTAE 052330 LSRTAE PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 730 PM EDT SAT JUL 05 2008 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0450 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 N OZARK 31.50N 85.64W 07/05/2008 DALE AL FIRE DEPT/RESCUE MICROBURST DESTROYED A SHED AND DOWNED A FEW TREES AT A RESIDENCE ON COUNTY ROAD 21 NORTH OF OZARK. && $$ JAMSKI This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 5 18:45:47 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m65Njkn8009611 for ; Sat, 5 Jul 2008 18:45:47 -0500 Message-Id: <200807052345.m65Njkn8009611@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 18:45:00 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 23:45:48 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 052342 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 1015 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER RHOME WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 5 18:51:00 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m65Np0n8009947 for ; Sat, 5 Jul 2008 18:51:00 -0500 Message-Id: <200807052351.m65Np0n8009947@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 18:50:13 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Local Storm Report X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 23:51:00 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) NWUS52 KTAE 052348 LSRTAE PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 748 PM EDT SAT JUL 05 2008 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0730 PM TSTM WND DMG 11 W ENTERPRISE 31.31N 86.04W 07/05/2008 COFFEE AL EMERGENCY MNGR A TREE WAS BLOWN INTO A POWER LINE SPARKING A FIRE ALONG HIGHWAY 87. && $$ JAMSKI This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 5 19:02:07 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m66027n8010643 for ; Sat, 5 Jul 2008 19:02:07 -0500 Message-Id: <200807060002.m66027n8010643@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 19:01:20 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Significant Weather Alert X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 06 Jul 2008 00:02:07 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WWUS82 KTAE 052359 SPSTAE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 753 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2008 ALZ068-FLZ007>010-060100- COASTAL WALTON-GENEVA-HOLMES-INLAND WALTON-WASHINGTON- 658 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008 ..SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR GENEVA...HOLMES...WALTON AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES... * UNTIL 800 PM CDT AT 656 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY STRONG...ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF GENEVA COUNTY...AND THE NORTH HALF OF WALTON...HOLMES AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES. THE STORMS WERE LOCATED AT THE BASE OF A DIGGING TROUGH AND WERE DROPPING SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH. PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS. EARLIER...STORMS JUST UPSTREAM IN DALE AND COFFEE COUNTIES IN ALABAMA...KNOCKED DOWN A POWER POLL..A TREE AND TREE LIMBS. ALSO...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. ALSO...THEY ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS. RELAY REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...YOU MAY CONTACT THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. $$ 24-BLOCK This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 5 19:05:15 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6605Fn8010859 for ; Sat, 5 Jul 2008 19:05:15 -0500 Message-Id: <200807060005.m6605Fn8010859@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 19:04:28 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Special Weather Statement X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 06 Jul 2008 00:05:15 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WWUS84 KMOB 060003 SPSMOB SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 703 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008 ALZ060-060030- COVINGTON- 703 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008 ..A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS BEING DETECTED OVER COVINGTON COUNTY... AT 657 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HOWELLS...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND... HOWELLS THROUGH 730 PM CDT. THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG COULD DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. $$ ! WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 5 19:25:38 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m660Pcn8011907 for ; Sat, 5 Jul 2008 19:25:38 -0500 Message-Id: <200807060025.m660Pcn8011907@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 19:24:51 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 06 Jul 2008 00:25:39 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 060023 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 722 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008 ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-060200- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY- GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM... MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN... PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE... LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON... ANDALUSIA...OPP...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE... TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY... SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA... FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY... MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW... WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE... EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT... NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE 722 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008 NOW... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOWLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE OVER SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE COAST AROUND 10 MPH. WIND GUSTS FROM 20 TO 30 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH 9 PM. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 5 20:05:14 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6615En8012147 for ; Sat, 5 Jul 2008 20:05:14 -0500 Message-Id: <200807060105.m6615En8012147@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 20:04:27 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Local Storm Report X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 06 Jul 2008 01:05:15 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) NWUS54 KMOB 060059 LSRMOB PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 759 PM CDT SAT JUL 05 2008 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0600 PM LIGHTNING 2 N MULAT 30.58N 87.13W 07/05/2008 SANTA ROSA FL FIRE DEPT/RESCUE LIGHTNING STRUCK A COTTAGE ON ROXIES LANE NEAR PACE...STARTING A FIRE THAT GUTTED A STORAGE ROOM. NO INJURIES OCCURRED. TIME ESTIMATED. && $$ DL This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 5 20:29:43 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m661Thn8012319 for ; Sat, 5 Jul 2008 20:29:43 -0500 Message-Id: <200807060129.m661Thn8012319@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 20:28:56 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Significant Weather Alert X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 06 Jul 2008 01:29:44 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WWUS82 KTAE 060128 SPSTAE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 926 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2008 FLZ007-008-010-060230- COASTAL WALTON-INLAND WALTON-WASHINGTON- 828 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008 ..SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR WALTON AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES... * UNTIL 930 PM CDT AT 826 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BONIFAY TO 11 MILES EAST OF DE FUNIAK SPRINGS TO 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF DORCAS...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM BONIFAY TO 11 MILES EAST OF DE FUNIAK SPRINGS TO 17 MILES NORTHWEST OF DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 7 MPH. PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS...AND IS ALSO PRODUCING OCCASIONAL FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. RELAY REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...YOU MAY CONTACT THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. $$ 24-BLOCK WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 5 20:47:01 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m661l1n8012763 for ; Sat, 5 Jul 2008 20:47:01 -0500 Message-Id: <200807060147.m661l1n8012763@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 20:46:14 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Local Storm Report X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 06 Jul 2008 01:47:02 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) NWUS52 KTAE 060137 LSRTAE PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 937 PM EDT SAT JUL 05 2008 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0300 PM HAIL SCREAMER 31.66N 85.21W 07/05/2008 E1.00 INCH HENRY AL LAW ENFORCEMENT 0430 PM TSTM WND DMG 12 W OCILLA 31.60N 83.45W 07/05/2008 IRWIN GA EMERGENCY MNGR TREES DOWN ON WHITE RIVER ROAD. 0450 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 N OZARK 31.50N 85.64W 07/05/2008 DALE AL FIRE DEPT/RESCUE MICROBURST DESTROYED A SHED AND DOWNED A FEW TREES AT A RESIDENCE ON COUNTY ROAD 21 NORTH OF OZARK. 0730 PM TSTM WND DMG 11 W ENTERPRISE 31.31N 86.04W 07/05/2008 COFFEE AL EMERGENCY MNGR A TREE WAS BLOWN INTO A POWER LINE SPARKING A FIRE ALONG HIGHWAY 87. && $$ JAMSKI This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 5 21:49:01 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m662n1n8014607 for ; Sat, 5 Jul 2008 21:49:01 -0500 Message-Id: <200807060249.m662n1n8014607@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 21:48:13 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 06 Jul 2008 02:49:01 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 060232 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 PM AST SAT JUL 05 2008 ..BERTHA RACING WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.2 WEST OR ABOUT 1140 MILES...1835 KM...WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND ABOUT 1445 MILES...2325 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...17.0 N...41.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER RHOME WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 5 21:49:01 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m662n1n8014610 for ; Sat, 5 Jul 2008 21:49:01 -0500 Message-Id: <200807060249.m662n1n8014610@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 21:48:13 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 06 Jul 2008 02:49:01 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT42 KNHC 060234 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 PM EDT SAT JUL 05 2008 LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT BERTHA CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A CONVECTIVE BURSTING PATTERN WITH THE CENTER CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED AND SO IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY...45 KT. BERTHA IS BEGINNING TO ENCOUNTER WARMER WATERS AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE 27 DEGREE CELSIUS ISOTHERM IN 36-48 HOURS. SINCE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT DURING THIS PERIOD...SLOW STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED. THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN BEYOND 48 HOURS DUE TO SPREAD IN THE TRACK MODELS AND THE RESULTING DIFFERENCES IN THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS BERTHA MIGHT EXPERIENCE. A TRACK MORE TOWARDS THE NORTH WOULD ALLOW MORE STRENGTHENING WHILE A TRACK MORE TOWARDS THE WEST WOULD RESULT IN INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. SINCE THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST TAKES BERTHA INTO AN AREA WITH MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR...ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST BEYOND 72 HOURS. THIS NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY MODELS. BERTHA CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY WESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 280/18. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS COURTESY OF A STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THEREAFTER... THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND TRACK MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. IN FACT...THE SPREAD IN THE TRACK MODELS SPAN NEARLY 1300 MILES AT DAY 5 WITH THE UKMET MODEL KEEPING BERTHA HEADED WESTWARD AND THE HWRF TURNING THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LIES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK MODEL ENVELOPE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS LARGER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS OF BERTHA. ACCORDINGLY...IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF BERTHA WILL OR WILL NOT POSE A THREAT TO ANY LAND AREAS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/0300Z 17.0N 41.2W 45 KT 12HR VT 06/1200Z 17.4N 44.0W 45 KT 24HR VT 07/0000Z 18.1N 47.6W 50 KT 36HR VT 07/1200Z 18.9N 51.0W 55 KT 48HR VT 08/0000Z 19.6N 53.7W 60 KT 72HR VT 09/0000Z 21.5N 59.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 10/0000Z 23.5N 63.5W 65 KT 120HR VT 11/0000Z 26.0N 67.5W 65 KT $$ FORECASTER RHOME WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 5 21:50:02 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m662o2n8014659 for ; Sat, 5 Jul 2008 21:50:02 -0500 Message-Id: <200807060250.m662o2n8014659@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 21:49:15 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 06 Jul 2008 02:50:03 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 060247 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1047 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2008 ALZ065>069-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-060500- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-QUITMAN-CLAY-RANDOLPH-CALHOUN- TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-EARLY- MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-DECATUR- GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES...CUTHBERT... SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY...DAWSON... ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTER...ASHBURN...TIFTON... FITZGERALD...OCILLA...DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY...COLQUITT... NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM...MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS... NASHVILLE...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO...THOMASVILLE... QUITMAN...VALDOSTA...LAKELAND 1047 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2008 /947 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 100 AM EDT (1200 AM CDT)...PATCHES OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST- SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE NEAR THE STATE LINE...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED OVER HOUSTON...EARLY...MILLER...AND SEMINOLE COUNTIES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. $$ GOULD This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 5 21:50:02 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m662o2n8014662 for ; Sat, 5 Jul 2008 21:50:02 -0500 Message-Id: <200807060250.m662o2n8014662@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 21:49:15 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 06 Jul 2008 02:50:03 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 060247 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1047 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2008 FLZ007>014-GMZ750-770-060500- INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY- CALHOUN-GULF- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA 1047 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2008 /947 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 1200 AM CDT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST OF BAY AND WALTON COUNTIES EXTENDING OFFSHORE TO 30 NM. $$ GOULD This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 5 23:15:43 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m664Fhn8015863 for ; Sat, 5 Jul 2008 23:15:43 -0500 Message-Id: <200807060415.m664Fhn8015863@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 23:14:55 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 06 Jul 2008 04:15:43 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 060413 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1213 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2008 ALZ065>069-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-060700- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-QUITMAN-CLAY-RANDOLPH-CALHOUN- TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-EARLY- MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-DECATUR- GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES...CUTHBERT... SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY...DAWSON... ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTER...ASHBURN...TIFTON... FITZGERALD...OCILLA...DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY...COLQUITT... NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM...MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS... NASHVILLE...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO...THOMASVILLE... QUITMAN...VALDOSTA...LAKELAND 1213 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2008 /1113 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 300 AM EDT (200 AM CDT)...PATCHES OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN WITH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ALONG AND TO THE WEST OF A LINE FROM ALBANY TO CAIRO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. $$ GOULD This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 5 23:15:43 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m664Fhn8015866 for ; Sat, 5 Jul 2008 23:15:43 -0500 Message-Id: <200807060415.m664Fhn8015866@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 23:14:55 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 06 Jul 2008 04:15:43 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 060413 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1213 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2008 FLZ007>014-GMZ750-770-060700- INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY- CALHOUN-GULF- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA 1213 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2008 /1113 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 1200 AM CDT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS... WITH PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN LINGERING FURTHER INLAND. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS...ESPECIALLY FROM PANAMA CITY TO POINTS SOUTH AND WEST OUT TO 40 NM IN THE GULF WATERS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. $$ GOULD This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 5 23:27:51 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m664Rpn8015905 for ; Sat, 5 Jul 2008 23:27:51 -0500 Message-Id: <200807060427.m664Rpn8015905@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 05 Jul 2008 23:27:03 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 06 Jul 2008 04:27:51 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 060425 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 1125 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008 ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-060830- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY- WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM... MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN... PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE... LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON... ANDALUSIA...OPP...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE... TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY... SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA... FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY... MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW... WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE... EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT... NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE 1125 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008 NOW... A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH AND BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...MOSTLY ISOLATED IN COVERAGE...CAN EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 6 00:52:15 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m665qFn8016161 for ; Sun, 6 Jul 2008 00:52:15 -0500 Message-Id: <200807060552.m665qFn8016161@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 06 Jul 2008 00:51:27 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 06 Jul 2008 05:52:15 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 060536 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 1140 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER KNABB WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 6 03:22:03 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m668M3n8016938 for ; Sun, 6 Jul 2008 03:22:03 -0500 Message-Id: <200807060822.m668M3n8016938@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 06 Jul 2008 03:21:14 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 06 Jul 2008 08:22:03 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 060819 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 319 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2008 ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-061100- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY- WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM... MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN... PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE... LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON... ANDALUSIA...OPP...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE... TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY... SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA... FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY... MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW... WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE... EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT... NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE 319 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2008 NOW... THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DOT SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THROUGH 6 AM...THESE SHOWERS WILL BRING RAINFALL TOTALS UP TO HALF AN INCH...ALONG WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 6 03:55:28 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m668tSn8017121 for ; Sun, 6 Jul 2008 03:55:28 -0500 Message-Id: <200807060855.m668tSn8017121@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 06 Jul 2008 03:54:39 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 06 Jul 2008 08:55:28 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 060842 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 500 AM AST SUN JUL 06 2008 ..BERTHA APPROACHING WARMER WATERS AND EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.2 WEST OR ABOUT 1310 MILES...2110 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/HR. A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS BERTHA REMAINS OVER THE WATERS OF THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC. IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF BERTHA WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT ANY LAND AREAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...17.3 N...43.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 22 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER KNABB WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 6 03:55:28 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m668tSn8017124 for ; Sun, 6 Jul 2008 03:55:28 -0500 Message-Id: <200807060855.m668tSn8017124@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 06 Jul 2008 03:54:39 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 06 Jul 2008 08:55:28 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT42 KNHC 060851 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 500 AM EDT SUN JUL 06 2008 NOT MANY CHANGES TO REPORT WITH BERTHA THIS MORNING. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY WESTWARD ALONG A HEADING OF ABOUT 280/19 TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...AND A GRADUAL SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED AS HEIGHTS BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST OF BERTHA OVER THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE MODELS STILL DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...BUT THEY HAVE GENERALLY COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT ON A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY THEN...ALTHOUGH AT A FORWARD SPEED OF ABOUT HALF OF BERTHA'S CURRENT MOTION. THE OUTLIER IS THE HWRF THAT FORECASTS A MUCH SOONER TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ALONG ABOUT 58W. NONE OF THE MODELS...HOWEVER...FORECAST BERTHA TO REACH 30 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE WITHIN FIVE DAYS. WHILE THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO BE MUCH WEAKER BY THE END OF THE FIVE-DAY FORECAST PERIOD...THE MODELS DO NOT DEPICT A HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGH THAT WOULD ACCELERATE BERTHA INTO THE MIDDLE LATITUDES. SO IT IS FAR TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF OR WHEN BERTHA WILL RECURVE. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT...TOWARD BUT NOT AS FAR EAST AS THE CONSENSUS. THE WATERS BENEATH BERTHA ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT 26 CELSIUS AND CONTINUE TO GET WARMER AS THE CYCLONE PROCEEDS WESTWARD...AND BY 48 HOURS FROM NOW THEY SHOULD BE APPROACHING 28 CELSIUS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD NOT STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD...SO GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN LINE WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...AND BERTHA COULD BE A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE WATERS WILL BE PLENTY WARM...SO THE DETERMINING FACTOR ON THE INTENSITY OF BERTHA WILL PROBABLY BE WIND SHEAR. THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FORECAST BY THE MODELS AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 IS COMPLEX...AND IT IS HARD TO DETERMINE JUST HOW MUCH SHEAR WILL BE AFFECTING BERTHA DURING THAT PERIOD. DESPITE TAKING INTO ACCOUNT A MODEST INCREASE IN SHEAR BASED ON THE GFS MODEL WIND FIELDS...THE SHIPS AND LGEM FORECAST 70-75 KT AT 72-120 HOURS...SO THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST PEAKS AT 70 KT...A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN AT THOSE LONG RANGES...HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE INTENSITY FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/0900Z 17.3N 43.2W 45 KT 12HR VT 06/1800Z 17.9N 46.1W 50 KT 24HR VT 07/0600Z 18.7N 49.5W 55 KT 36HR VT 07/1800Z 19.6N 52.5W 60 KT 48HR VT 08/0600Z 20.4N 55.1W 65 KT 72HR VT 09/0600Z 22.5N 60.0W 70 KT 96HR VT 10/0600Z 24.5N 64.0W 70 KT 120HR VT 11/0600Z 27.0N 67.5W 70 KT $$ FORECASTER KNABB WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 6 03:57:30 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m668vUn8017146 for ; Sun, 6 Jul 2008 03:57:30 -0500 Message-Id: <200807060857.m668vUn8017146@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 06 Jul 2008 03:56:42 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Hazardous Weather Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 06 Jul 2008 08:57:31 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FLUS42 KTAE 060854 HWOTAE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 454 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161- GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-070900- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON- JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN- CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL- IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE- DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- 454 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2008 /354 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2008/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA... SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. ALTHOUGH A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED...SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND SMALL HAIL. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND SLOWLY TREND DOWN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RETURN THROUGH THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THIS RIDGE MAY DECREASE THE RAIN CHANCES EVEN FURTHER ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHICH WILL LEAD TO INCREASING AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 90S OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS. SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP. $$ GIBBS/GOULD This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 6 05:20:12 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m66AK1n8022130 for ; Sun, 6 Jul 2008 05:20:01 -0500 Message-Id: <200807061020.m66AK1n8022130@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 06 Jul 2008 05:19:13 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Hazardous Weather Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 06 Jul 2008 10:20:12 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FLUS44 KMOB 061018 HWOMOB HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 530 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2008 ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078- 079-071200- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY- COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY- GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- 530 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2008 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THE COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA... DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...BRIEF...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS. WINDS GUSTING TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS. DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON FROM MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN...WITH ALL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 6 06:43:24 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m66BhOn8022570 for ; Sun, 6 Jul 2008 06:43:24 -0500 Message-Id: <200807061143.m66BhOn8022570@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 06 Jul 2008 06:42:35 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 06 Jul 2008 11:43:25 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 061138 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER KNABB WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 6 06:51:37 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m66Bpbn8022623 for ; Sun, 6 Jul 2008 06:51:37 -0500 Message-Id: <200807061151.m66Bpbn8022623@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 06 Jul 2008 06:50:48 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 06 Jul 2008 11:51:37 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 061149 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 749 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2008 FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-061400- INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY- CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY- WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY 749 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2008 /649 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 10 AM EDT (9 AM CDT)...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE ASHORE BEFORE QUICKLY DISSIPATING...MAINLY FROM APALACHICOLA EASTWARD. $$ FOURNIER This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 6 07:01:48 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m66C1mn8022686 for ; Sun, 6 Jul 2008 07:01:48 -0500 Message-Id: <200807061201.m66C1mn8022686@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 06 Jul 2008 07:00:59 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 06 Jul 2008 12:01:48 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 061159 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 659 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2008 ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-061400- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY- WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM... MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN... PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE... LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON... ANDALUSIA...OPP...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE... TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY... SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA... FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY... MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW... WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE... EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT... NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE 659 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2008 NOW... SEVERAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THROUGH 9 AM...THESE SHOWERS WILL BRING RAINFALL TOTALS OF UP TO AN INCH...ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AS THEY MOVE SOUTH OVER WILXOC...CLARKE...CHOCTAW... MONRO AND BUTLER COUNTIES. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THESE SHOWERS WILL INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 6 08:41:36 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m66Dfan8023213 for ; Sun, 6 Jul 2008 08:41:36 -0500 Message-Id: <200807061341.m66Dfan8023213@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 06 Jul 2008 08:40:46 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 06 Jul 2008 13:41:36 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 061339 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 839 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2008 ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-061900- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY- GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM... MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN... PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE... LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON... ANDALUSIA...OPP...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE... TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY... SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA... FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY... MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW... WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE... EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT... NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE 839 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2008 NOW... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 MPH. THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE THUNDERSTORMS...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE LIKELY. NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...HOWEVER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL. IF OUTDOORS TODAY AND YOU HEAR THUNDER...BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO A PLACE OF SHELTER QUICKLY AS LIGHTNING CAN BE A THREAT TO YOUR SAFETY EVEN IF THE THUNDERSTORM IS MANY MILES AWAY FROM YOUR LOCATION. IF DRIVING...BE PREPARED TO SLOW YOUR DRIVING SPEEDS IF YOU ENCOUNTER VISIBILITY REDUCING HEAVY RAIN. DURING AND FOLLOWING HEAVY RAINS...ROADWAYS WILL HAVE PONDING WATER WHICH CAN INCREASE THE POTENTIAL OF HYDROPLANING. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 6 09:01:51 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m66E1pn8023329 for ; Sun, 6 Jul 2008 09:01:51 -0500 Message-Id: <200807061401.m66E1pn8023329@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 06 Jul 2008 09:01:01 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 06 Jul 2008 14:01:51 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 061358 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 958 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161- GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-061600- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON- JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN- CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL- IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE- DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES... CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY... DAWSON...ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTER...ASHBURN... TIFTON...FITZGERALD...OCILLA...DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY... COLQUITT...NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM...MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS... NASHVILLE...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO...THOMASVILLE... QUITMAN...VALDOSTA...LAKELAND 958 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2008 /858 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2008/ NOW... THROUGH NOON EDT (11 AM CDT)...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY MOVE ASHORE FROM ALLIGATOR POINT TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER. A LARGE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND WILL BE APPROACHING THE ELBA AREA IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA BY 11 AM CDT. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. $$ FOURNIER This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 6 09:46:38 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m66Ekcn8023580 for ; Sun, 6 Jul 2008 09:46:38 -0500 Message-Id: <200807061446.m66Ekcn8023580@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 06 Jul 2008 09:45:48 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 06 Jul 2008 14:46:38 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 061444 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 AM AST SUN JUL 06 2008 ..BERTHA MOVING BRISKLY WESTWARD AND FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN... AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.1 WEST OR ABOUT 1185 MILES...1905 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR. A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS BERTHA REMAINS OVER THE WATERS OF THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC. IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF BERTHA WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT ANY LAND AREAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...17.4 N...45.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 6 10:01:56 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m66F1un8023672 for ; Sun, 6 Jul 2008 10:01:56 -0500 Message-Id: <200807061501.m66F1un8023672@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 06 Jul 2008 10:01:07 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 06 Jul 2008 15:01:57 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT42 KNHC 061446 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 AM EDT SUN JUL 06 2008 A SERIES OF MICROWAVE OVERPASSES THIS MORNING SHOW THAT BERTHA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. QUIKSCAT DATA FROM 0852 UTC INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN ABOUT 45 KT...WHICH AGREES WITH THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES. HOWEVER...RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION WHICH MAY FORETELL AN INCREASE IN STRENGTH. SSTS UNDER BERTHA HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 26 CELSIUS AND ARE EXPECTED TO WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS. SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW...SO GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND BERTHA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THAT TIME. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHAT EFFECT AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL HAVE ON THE CYCLONE. IF IT REMAINS IN PLACE...THE TROUGH WOULD PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH HOWEVER...WHICH WOULD KEEP BERTHA IN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. DUE TO THESE UNCERTAINTIES THE INTENSITY FORECAST BEYOND 3 DAYS KEEPS BERTHA AT THE SAME STRENGTH. BERTHA CONTINUES MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD OR 280/18 KT. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH A REDUCTION IS FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A LITTLE LESS SPREAD IN THE MODELS THIS MORNING...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWING A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TURN IN 2-3 DAYS AS THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BEGIN TO WEAKEN. THE HWRF CONTINUES TO INSIST ON THE TURN OCCURRING MUCH SOONER...WHILE THE UKMET REMAINS THE WESTERNMOST MODEL BUT WITH A WEAKENED TROPICAL CYCLONE OR EVEN AN OPEN WAVE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED EASTWARD...BUT IT REMAINS LEFT OF MOST OF THE GUIDANCE AND ALSO LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/1500Z 17.4N 45.1W 45 KT 12HR VT 07/0000Z 18.0N 47.8W 50 KT 24HR VT 07/1200Z 18.9N 50.9W 55 KT 36HR VT 08/0000Z 19.7N 53.5W 60 KT 48HR VT 08/1200Z 20.5N 56.0W 65 KT 72HR VT 09/1200Z 22.5N 60.5W 70 KT 96HR VT 10/1200Z 25.0N 64.0W 70 KT 120HR VT 11/1200Z 27.0N 66.5W 70 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 6 10:52:55 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m66Fqtn8024162 for ; Sun, 6 Jul 2008 10:52:55 -0500 Message-Id: <200807061552.m66Fqtn8024162@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 06 Jul 2008 10:52:05 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 06 Jul 2008 15:52:55 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 061550 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1150 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161- GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-061800- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON- JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN- CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL- IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE- DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES... CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY... DAWSON...ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTER...ASHBURN... TIFTON...FITZGERALD...OCILLA...DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY... COLQUITT...NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM...MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS... NASHVILLE...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO...THOMASVILLE... QUITMAN...VALDOSTA...LAKELAND 1150 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2008 /1050 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 2 PM EDT (1 PM CDT)...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL INITIALLY BE ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AS THE SEA BREEZE FRONT MOVES INLAND...BUT SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP ELSEWHERE AS WELL. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH EAST OF THE APALACHICOLA AND CHATTAHOOCHEE RIVERS...AND TOWARD THE EAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH WEST OF THESE RIVERS. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND SMALL HAIL. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. $$ FOURNIER This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 6 11:29:37 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m66GTbn8024481 for ; Sun, 6 Jul 2008 11:29:37 -0500 Message-Id: <200807061629.m66GTbn8024481@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 06 Jul 2008 11:28:47 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 06 Jul 2008 16:29:37 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 061627 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 1130 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2008 ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-062000- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY- GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM... MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN... PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE... LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON... ANDALUSIA...OPP...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE... TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY... SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA... FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY... MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW... WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE... EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT... NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE 1130 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2008 NOW... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. THEY ARE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 MPH. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE BEACH AREAS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE THUNDERSTORMS...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE LIKELY. NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...HOWEVER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL. IF OUTDOORS TODAY AND YOU HEAR THUNDER...BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO A PLACE OF SHELTER QUICKLY AS LIGHTNING CAN BE A THREAT TO YOUR SAFETY EVEN IF THE THUNDERSTORM IS MANY MILES AWAY FROM YOUR LOCATION. IF DRIVING...BE PREPARED TO SLOW YOUR DRIVING SPEEDS IF YOU ENCOUNTER VISIBILITY REDUCING HEAVY RAIN. DURING AND FOLLOWING HEAVY RAINS...ROADWAYS WILL HAVE PONDING WATER WHICH CAN INCREASE THE POTENTIAL OF HYDROPLANING. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 6 12:11:17 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m66HBHn8024762 for ; Sun, 6 Jul 2008 12:11:17 -0500 Message-Id: <200807061711.m66HBHn8024762@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 06 Jul 2008 12:10:27 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Local Storm Report X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 06 Jul 2008 17:11:18 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) NWUS54 KMOB 061708 LSRMOB PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 1207 PM CDT SUN JUL 06 2008 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 1033 AM LIGHTNING THOMASVILLE 31.91N 87.74W 07/06/2008 CLARKE AL EMERGENCY MNGR LIGHTNING STRUCK A HOUSE AND CAUSED MODERATE DAMAGE && $$ CULLEN This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 6 12:22:26 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m66HMQn8024839 for ; Sun, 6 Jul 2008 12:22:26 -0500 Message-Id: <200807061722.m66HMQn8024839@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 06 Jul 2008 12:21:36 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Special Weather Statement X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 06 Jul 2008 17:22:27 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WWUS84 KMOB 061720 SPSMOB SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 1212 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2008 ALZ052-059-061>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-079-061815- UPPER MOBILE-ESCAMBIA-WASHINGTON-INLAND OKALOOSA-INLAND ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-GEORGE-PERRY-GREENE-WAYNE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEAKESVILLE...LUCEDALE...CRESTVIEW...FORT WALTON BEACH...NAVARRE...BAY MINETTE AND DOWNTOWN MOBILE... 1212 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2008 ..A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF ESCAMBIA...WASHINGTON...GEORGE...PERRY...GREENE...WAYNE...BALDWIN... MOBILE...OKALOOSA AND SANTA ROSA COUNTIES THROUGH 115 PM THIS AFTERNOON... AT 1211 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM WAYNESBORO TO CHATOM TO ATMORE AND CRESTVIEW...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THESE LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND... VAUGHN...CHASTANG...VINEGAR BEND...STOCKTON...STRENGTHFORD...I65 AND AL 287...PINEOLA AND I65 AND AL 59 THROUGH 115 PM CDT. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS IS FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM LIGHTNING. REMEMBER...IF YOU HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. IN ADDITION...THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE SUDDEN WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH AND SMALL HAIL. WINDS THIS STRONG COULD DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED. THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN BRIEF PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 6 12:49:53 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m66Hnrn8025039 for ; Sun, 6 Jul 2008 12:49:53 -0500 Message-Id: <200807061749.m66Hnrn8025039@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 06 Jul 2008 12:49:03 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 06 Jul 2008 17:49:54 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 061733 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 1185 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BROWN WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 6 13:00:13 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m66I0Dn8025111 for ; Sun, 6 Jul 2008 13:00:13 -0500 Message-Id: <200807061800.m66I0Dn8025111@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 06 Jul 2008 12:59:22 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 06 Jul 2008 18:00:13 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 061758 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 158 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161- GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-062000- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON- JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN- CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL- IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE- DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES... CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY... DAWSON...ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTER...ASHBURN... TIFTON...FITZGERALD...OCILLA...DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY... COLQUITT...NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM...MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS... NASHVILLE...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO...THOMASVILLE... QUITMAN...VALDOSTA...LAKELAND 158 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2008 /1258 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 4 PM EDT (3 PM CDT)...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. THE STORMS EAST OF THE ALABAMA GEORGIA STATE LINE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH WHILE THE STORMS WEST OF THE STATE LINE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE EAST. THE STRONGER STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND SMALL HAIL. $$ FOURNIER This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 6 13:58:13 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m66IwDn8025471 for ; Sun, 6 Jul 2008 13:58:13 -0500 Message-Id: <200807061858.m66IwDn8025471@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 06 Jul 2008 13:57:22 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 06 Jul 2008 18:58:13 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 061856 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 256 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161- GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-062100- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON- JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN- CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL- IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE- DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES... CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY... DAWSON...ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTER...ASHBURN... TIFTON...FITZGERALD...OCILLA...DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY... COLQUITT...NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM...MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS... NASHVILLE...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO...THOMASVILLE... QUITMAN...VALDOSTA...LAKELAND 256 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2008 /156 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 500 PM EDT (400 PM CDT)...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL RAIN...AND SMALL HAIL. $$ JAMSKI This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 6 15:16:43 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m66KGhn8025892 for ; Sun, 6 Jul 2008 15:16:43 -0500 Message-Id: <200807062016.m66KGhn8025892@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 06 Jul 2008 15:15:52 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 06 Jul 2008 20:16:43 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 062014 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 414 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161- 062200- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON- JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN- CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL- IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE- DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES... CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY... DAWSON...ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTER...ASHBURN... TIFTON...FITZGERALD...OCILLA...DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY... COLQUITT...NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM...MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS... NASHVILLE...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO...THOMASVILLE... QUITMAN...VALDOSTA...LAKELAND 414 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2008 /314 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 600 PM EDT (500 PM CDT)...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL RAIN...AND SMALL HAIL. $$ JAMSKI This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 6 16:08:25 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m66L8Pn8026195 for ; Sun, 6 Jul 2008 16:08:25 -0500 Message-Id: <200807062108.m66L8Pn8026195@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 06 Jul 2008 16:07:35 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 06 Jul 2008 21:08:26 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 062057 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 500 PM AST SUN JUL 06 2008 ..BERTHA STRENGTHENING...COULD BECOME A HURRICANE... AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.0 WEST OR ABOUT 1055 MILES...1700 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR. A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF BERTHA WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT ANY LAND AREAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND BERTHA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...18.1 N...47.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 6 16:08:26 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m66L8Pn8026198 for ; Sun, 6 Jul 2008 16:08:25 -0500 Message-Id: <200807062108.m66L8Pn8026198@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 06 Jul 2008 16:07:35 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 06 Jul 2008 21:08:26 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT42 KNHC 062057 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 500 PM EDT SUN JUL 06 2008 A COUPLE OF MICROWAVE IMAGES JUST RECEIVED SUGGEST THAT BERTHA'S VORTEX IS TILTED A LITTLE. THE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER. HOWEVER...THESE IMAGES ALSO SUGGEST THAT THE OVERALL STRUCTURE HAS IMPROVED WITH THE APPEARANCE OF AN EYE FEATURE...SUGGESTING THAT BERTHA IS STRENGTHENING. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 45 KT AT 18Z...BUT WITH THE IMPROVING STRUCTURE THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50 KT. CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND BERTHA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE. HOWEVER...INDICATIONS ARE THAT BEYOND 48 HOURS...WESTERLY SHEAR COULD HALT ANY ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS MODELS. BERTHA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 285/17 KT. ALL OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A NORTHWEST TURN AS THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WEAKENS IN A FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AS TO WHEN THE TURN OCCURS. THE HWRF AND GFDL...WHICH DEPICT A STRONG TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE. THE UKMET WHICH KEEPS BERTHA WEAKER IS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD...BUT STILL REMAINS WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/2100Z 18.1N 47.0W 50 KT 12HR VT 07/0600Z 18.7N 49.6W 55 KT 24HR VT 07/1800Z 19.5N 52.3W 60 KT 36HR VT 08/0600Z 20.2N 54.6W 65 KT 48HR VT 08/1800Z 20.9N 56.7W 70 KT 72HR VT 09/1800Z 23.0N 60.5W 70 KT 96HR VT 10/1800Z 26.0N 64.0W 70 KT 120HR VT 11/1800Z 29.0N 65.5W 70 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 6 16:10:29 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m66LATn8026225 for ; Sun, 6 Jul 2008 16:10:29 -0500 Message-Id: <200807062110.m66LATn8026225@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 06 Jul 2008 16:09:38 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 06 Jul 2008 21:10:29 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 062108 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 508 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2008 FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-062300- INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY- CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY- WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL- DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER- MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS- BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES... CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY... DAWSON...ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTER...ASHBURN... TIFTON...FITZGERALD...OCILLA...DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY... COLQUITT...NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM...MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS... NASHVILLE...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO...THOMASVILLE... QUITMAN...VALDOSTA...LAKELAND 508 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2008 /408 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 700 PM EDT (600 PM CDT)...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. $$ JAMSKI This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 6 16:59:28 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m66LxSn8026490 for ; Sun, 6 Jul 2008 16:59:28 -0500 Message-Id: <200807062159.m66LxSn8026490@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 06 Jul 2008 16:58:37 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 06 Jul 2008 21:59:28 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 062157 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 457 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2008 ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-070000- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY- GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM... MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN... PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE... LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON... ANDALUSIA...OPP...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE... TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY... SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA... FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY... MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW... WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE... EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT... NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE 457 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2008 NOW... A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME WESTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AFFECTING MOST AREAS IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON AND MOBILE COUNTIES IN ALABAMA DURING THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS. OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH SOME OF THE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 8 PM. OTHER DEVELOPMENT TO EAST OVER SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL BE POSSIBLE ALSO THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS IF THREATENING WEATHER IS APPROACHING YOURS AREA. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 6 18:41:10 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m66NfAn8027040 for ; Sun, 6 Jul 2008 18:41:10 -0500 Message-Id: <200807062341.m66NfAn8027040@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 06 Jul 2008 18:40:19 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 06 Jul 2008 23:41:10 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 062329 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 1055 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER AVILA This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 6 21:44:25 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m672iPn8028214 for ; Sun, 6 Jul 2008 21:44:25 -0500 Message-Id: <200807070244.m672iPn8028214@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 06 Jul 2008 21:43:34 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 07 Jul 2008 02:44:25 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 070234 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 PM AST SUN JUL 06 2008 ..BERTHA RIGHT ON TRACK...APPEARS TO BE ON ITS WAY TO BECOME A HURRICANE... AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.9 WEST OR ABOUT 930 MILES...1500 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. IT TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF BERTHA EVENTUALLY AFFECT ANY LAND AREAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BERTHA WILL LIKELY BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM... MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...18.6 N...48.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 6 21:44:25 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m672iPn8028217 for ; Sun, 6 Jul 2008 21:44:25 -0500 Message-Id: <200807070244.m672iPn8028217@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 06 Jul 2008 21:43:34 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 07 Jul 2008 02:44:25 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT42 KNHC 070234 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 PM EDT SUN JUL 06 2008 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS GRADUALLY IMPROVED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE CONVECTION IS SYMMETRIC ABOUT THE CENTER WHILE THE OUTFLOW HAS BEEN EXPANDING WESTWARD...TYPICAL OF AN INTENSIFYING CYCLONE. FURTHERMORE...CONSECUTIVE MICROWAVE DATA SHOW A WELL DEFINED RING OF DEEP CONVECTION...OR EYE-LIKE FEATURE... WHICH IS GRADUALLY BECOMING ALIGNED VERTICALLY. THIS COULD EVENTUALLY BE THE PRECURSOR OF AN EYE FORMATION. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED AND NOW SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS. THE OCEAN IS PLENTY WARM AHEAD OF BERTHA SO THE SHEAR WILL BE THE MAIN PRIMARY LARGE SCALE FACTOR CONTROLLING THE FUTURE INTENSITY. WE ARE NOT CONSIDERING EYEWALL CYCLES AT THIS TIME...IN CASE AN EYE FORMS. BECAUSE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO... STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED AND BERTHA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY. THEREAFTER...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO FLUCTUATE SO NO IMPORTANT CHANGES IN INTENSITY ARE FORECAST. THE CENTER IS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH AS IT APPEARS TO BE REALIGNING WITH THE MID-LEVEL VORTEX. THIS IS NOT A CHANGE IN TRACK SINCE BERTHA IS STILL MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 KNOTS. A WEAKNESS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG 50 TO 55 DEGREES WEST WILL PROBABLY CAUSE BERTHA TO BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN SOON. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD SOME IN A DAY OR TWO CAUSING BERTHA TO CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TRACK. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN AGAIN AND BERTHA SHOULD SLOW DOWN CONSIDERABLY AS INDICATED BY SOME GLOBAL MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT. NO NEED TO DISCUSS EVERY MODEL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/0300Z 18.6N 48.9W 55 KT 12HR VT 07/1200Z 19.3N 51.5W 60 KT 24HR VT 08/0000Z 20.0N 54.5W 70 KT 36HR VT 08/1200Z 21.0N 57.0W 70 KT 48HR VT 09/0000Z 22.0N 59.5W 70 KT 72HR VT 10/0000Z 24.0N 62.0W 70 KT 96HR VT 11/0000Z 27.0N 64.5W 70 KT 120HR VT 12/0000Z 30.0N 65.5W 70 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 6 22:06:13 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6736Dn8028344 for ; Sun, 6 Jul 2008 22:06:13 -0500 Message-Id: <200807070306.m6736Dn8028344@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 06 Jul 2008 22:05:21 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 07 Jul 2008 03:06:13 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 070304 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1104 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2008 FLZ008-012-014-015-018-027-028-034-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775- 070600- COASTAL WALTON-BAY-GULF-FRANKLIN-JEFFERSON-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-DIXIE- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...INWOOD...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...WHITE CITY...PORT ST. JOE... WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...MONTICELLO... SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS...PERRY...CROSS CITY 1104 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2008 /1004 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 200 AM EDT (100 AM CDT)...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE. SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE ONSHORE...ESPECIALLY OVER GULF...FRANKLIN...TAYLOR...AND DIXIE COUNTIES DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. $$ GOULD This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 7 00:59:55 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m675xtn8029063 for ; Mon, 7 Jul 2008 00:59:55 -0500 Message-Id: <200807070559.m675xtn8029063@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 07 Jul 2008 00:59:03 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 07 Jul 2008 05:59:55 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 070557 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 157 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2008 FLZ008-012-014-015-018-019-027>029-034-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775- 070900- COASTAL WALTON-BAY-GULF-FRANKLIN-JEFFERSON-MADISON-WAKULLA-TAYLOR- LAFAYETTE-DIXIE- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...INWOOD...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...WHITE CITY...PORT ST. JOE... WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...MONTICELLO...MADISON... GREENVILLE...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS...PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO... CROSS CITY 157 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2008 /1257 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 500 AM EDT (400 AM CDT)...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH AT 10 MPH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE ONSHORE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER DIXIE AND BAY COUNTIES. $$ GOULD This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 7 03:45:47 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m678jln8029916 for ; Mon, 7 Jul 2008 03:45:47 -0500 Message-Id: <200807070845.m678jln8029916@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 07 Jul 2008 03:44:55 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Hazardous Weather Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 07 Jul 2008 08:45:48 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FLUS42 KTAE 070841 HWOTAE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 441 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161- GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-080930- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON- JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN- CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL- IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE- DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- 441 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2008 /341 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2008/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA... SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND SMALL HAIL. DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S LATER IN THE WEEK. SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 7 03:45:48 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m678jmn8029919 for ; Mon, 7 Jul 2008 03:45:48 -0500 Message-Id: <200807070845.m678jmn8029919@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 07 Jul 2008 03:44:55 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 07 Jul 2008 08:45:48 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 070843 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 443 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2008 FLZ008-012-014-015-018-019-027>029-034-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775- 071145- COASTAL WALTON-BAY-GULF-FRANKLIN-JEFFERSON-MADISON-WAKULLA-TAYLOR- LAFAYETTE-DIXIE- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...INWOOD...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...WHITE CITY...PORT ST. JOE... WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...MONTICELLO...MADISON... GREENVILLE...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS...PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO... CROSS CITY 443 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2008 /343 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 800 AM EDT (700 AM CDT) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE ONSHORE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER BAY...GULF...FRANKLIN...AND DIXIE COUNTIES. FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS. $$ GOULD This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 7 03:50:45 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m678ojn8029960 for ; Mon, 7 Jul 2008 03:50:45 -0500 Message-Id: <200807070850.m678ojn8029960@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 07 Jul 2008 03:49:53 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 07 Jul 2008 08:50:45 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 070845 TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 500 AM AST MON JUL 07 2008 ..BERTHA BECOMES THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2008 ATLANTIC SEASON... AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.2 WEST OR ABOUT 845 MILES... 1365 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS BERTHA REMAINS OVER THE WATERS OF THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF BERTHA WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT ANY LAND AREAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...19.3 N...50.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER KNABB This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 7 04:06:04 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m67964n8030069 for ; Mon, 7 Jul 2008 04:06:04 -0500 Message-Id: <200807070906.m67964n8030069@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 07 Jul 2008 04:05:12 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 07 Jul 2008 09:06:05 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT42 KNHC 070900 TCDAT2 HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 500 AM EDT MON JUL 07 2008 IN THE HOURS LEADING UP TO 00Z...SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE MICROWAVE OVERPASSES OCCURRED ON ROUGHLY AN HOURLY BASIS...AND ALMOST MADE IT SEEM LIKE WE WERE RECEIVING RADAR FIXES. THOSE IMAGES REVEALED A WELL-DEFINED AND VERTICALLY-ALIGNED EYE FEATURE...AND MORE RECENTLY AN IMAGE FROM AMSU TAKEN AT 0517Z ALSO DEPICTED AN EYE. THE MICROWAVE EYE DIAMETER APPEARS TO BE ABOUT 15-20 N MI. GOES INFRARED IMAGERY HAS INTERMITTENTLY EXHIBITED HINTS OF AN EYE...ESPECIALLY AROUND 06Z WHEN SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE BOTH 65 KT. OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW THE HURRICANE THRESHOLD...BUT GIVEN THE MICROWAVE SIGNATURES THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE... THE FIRST OF THE 2008 ATLANTIC SEASON...WITH AN INTENSITY OF 65 KT. WHILE A HURRICANE DOES NOT FORM EVERY YEAR IN JULY IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN...IT HAS CERTAINLY HAPPENED BEFORE...INCLUDING IN 1996 WHEN ANOTHER HURRICANE BERTHA FORMED...COINCIDENTALLY ALSO ON JULY 7. EXTRAPOLATION OF THE EARLIER SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES MATCHES UP QUITE WELL WITH MORE RECENT GEOSTATIONARY FIXES TO YIELD AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 285/17. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF BERTHA IS PROVIDING THE STEERING...BUT THAT FEATURE IS FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALLOWING BERTHA'S TRACK TO STEADILY BEND TO THE RIGHT...BUT ALSO SLOW DOWN SUBSTANTIALLY. ALL OF THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT THERE REMAINS A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF SPREAD REGARDING AT WHAT LONGITUDE BERTHA WILL TURN. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS EDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT TOWARD THE CONSENSUS AND IS A TAD SLOWER AT THE END. GIVEN THE WEAK STEERING CURRENTS AND LACK OF A HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...IT IS STILL NOT GUARANTEED THAT BERTHA WILL RECURVE. THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS NEAR BERTHA ARE NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE APPRECIABLY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHILE UNDERLYING SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM A LITTLE MORE...SO SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ALONG THE LINES OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE. AT 3 TO 5 DAYS...THE GLOBAL MODELS DISAGREE ON THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND SO IT REMAINS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH WIND SHEAR WILL AFFECT BERTHA THEN. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST PEAKS AT 80 KT WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THEN SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING SHEAR...AND DUE TO COOLER WATERS AS BERTHA PROGRESSES NORTHWARD ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/0900Z 19.3N 50.2W 65 KT 12HR VT 07/1800Z 19.9N 52.5W 70 KT 24HR VT 08/0600Z 20.8N 55.0W 75 KT 36HR VT 08/1800Z 21.7N 57.1W 80 KT 48HR VT 09/0600Z 22.7N 59.0W 80 KT 72HR VT 10/0600Z 25.0N 62.0W 75 KT 96HR VT 11/0600Z 28.0N 64.0W 70 KT 120HR VT 12/0600Z 30.5N 64.5W 70 KT $$ FORECASTER KNABB This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 7 05:16:25 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m67AGPn8030986 for ; Mon, 7 Jul 2008 05:16:25 -0500 Message-Id: <200807071016.m67AGPn8030986@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 07 Jul 2008 05:15:32 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 07 Jul 2008 10:16:26 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 071014 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 514 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2008 ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-071315- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY- GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM... MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN... PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE... LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON... ANDALUSIA...OPP...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE... TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY... SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA... FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY... MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW... WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE... EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT... NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE 514 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2008 NOW... SEVERAL AREA OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING REDUCED VISIBILITIES OF ONE MILE OR LESS. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS INDICATING THE DEVELOPING FOG IS EXPANDING IN COVERAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND THE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE. WHILE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED...ISOLATED RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY OF ONE-QUARTER MILE OR LESS WILL OCCUR IN LOW LYING AND OTHER FOG PRONE AREAS. IF DRIVING IN DENSE FOG...SLOW DOWN...USE LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS...AND LEAVE PLENTY OF DISTANCE BETWEEN YOUR VEHICLE AND THE VEHICLE AHEAD OF YOU. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 7 05:18:28 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m67AISn8031004 for ; Mon, 7 Jul 2008 05:18:28 -0500 Message-Id: <200807071018.m67AISn8031004@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 07 Jul 2008 05:17:35 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 07 Jul 2008 10:18:28 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 071017 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 617 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2008 FLZ008-012>015-017>019-026>029-034-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775- 071300- COASTAL WALTON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-LEON-JEFFERSON-MADISON- LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...INWOOD...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE... TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO...MADISON...GREENVILLE... SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS...PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO... CROSS CITY 617 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2008 /517 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 900 AM EDT (800 AM CDT)...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE ONSHORE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER BAY...GULF... FRANKLIN...AND DIXIE COUNTIES. GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS. AS THEY MOVE FURTHER INLAND...ANY STORMS WILL WEAKEN TO LIGHTER SHOWERS. $$ GOULD This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 7 06:14:24 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m67BEOn8031303 for ; Mon, 7 Jul 2008 06:14:24 -0500 Message-Id: <200807071114.m67BEOn8031303@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 07 Jul 2008 06:13:31 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Hazardous Weather Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 07 Jul 2008 11:14:24 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FLUS44 KMOB 071111 HWOMOB HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 611 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2008 ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078- 079-081115- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY- COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY- GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- 611 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2008 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...THE COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY...WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS UP TO 45 MPH BEING THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE DEVELOPING CLOSE TO AREA BAYS...WATERWAYS AND THE GULF COASTAL WATERS. BOATERS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF SQUALLS IN THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER OR NEAR AREA WATERS. DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK. A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN...WITH ALL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 7 06:38:45 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m67Bcjn8031438 for ; Mon, 7 Jul 2008 06:38:45 -0500 Message-Id: <200807071138.m67Bcjn8031438@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 07 Jul 2008 06:37:52 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 07 Jul 2008 11:38:45 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 071131 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY-UPGRADED HURRICANE BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 845 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER KNABB WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 7 07:17:34 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m67CHYn8031689 for ; Mon, 7 Jul 2008 07:17:34 -0500 Message-Id: <200807071217.m67CHYn8031689@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 07 Jul 2008 07:16:41 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 07 Jul 2008 12:17:34 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 071215 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 815 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2008 FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-071400- INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY- CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY- WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY 815 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2008 /715 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 10 AM EDT (9 AM CDT)...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INLAND AS WELL. $$ FOURNIER This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 7 09:02:21 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m67E2Ln8032259 for ; Mon, 7 Jul 2008 09:02:21 -0500 Message-Id: <200807071402.m67E2Ln8032259@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 07 Jul 2008 09:01:28 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 07 Jul 2008 14:02:22 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 071400 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1000 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2008 FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-071600- INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY- CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY- WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY 1000 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2008 /900 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2008/ NOW... THROUGH NOON EDT (11 AM CDT)...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE. A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER LAND AS WELL...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. $$ FOURNIER This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 7 09:42:01 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m67Eg1n8032468 for ; Mon, 7 Jul 2008 09:42:01 -0500 Message-Id: <200807071442.m67Eg1n8032468@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 07 Jul 2008 09:41:07 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 07 Jul 2008 14:42:01 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 071433 TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 AM AST MON JUL 07 2008 ..BERTHA STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...COULD REACH CATEGORY TWO INTENSITY LATER TODAY... AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.3 WEST OR ABOUT 775 MILES... 1250 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST WITH A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND BERTHA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...19.6 N...51.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER RHOME This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 7 09:42:01 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m67Eg1n8032471 for ; Mon, 7 Jul 2008 09:42:01 -0500 Message-Id: <200807071442.m67Eg1n8032471@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 07 Jul 2008 09:41:08 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 07 Jul 2008 14:42:01 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT42 KNHC 071432 TCDAT2 HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 AM EDT MON JUL 07 2008 BERTHA'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS BECOME MORE IMPRESSIVE DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH A DISTINCT EYE NOW APPARENT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 80 KT IN LINE WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE VARIOUS SATELLITE ESTIMATES. IN THE SHORT-TERM...THERE ARE NO APPARENT ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS WHICH WOULD INHIBIT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TODAY AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR BERTHA TO BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN BEYOND 36 HOURS AS THE GLOBAL MODELS DISAGREE ON THE DETAILS OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE GFS FORECAST THE MOST UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH BERTHA ESSENTIALLY RUNNING INTO THE TROUGH. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE SHIPS AND LGEM STATISTICAL MODELS...WHICH INCLUDE ATMOSPHERIC INFORMATION FROM THE GFS...SHOW CONSIDERABLE WEAKENING. MEANWHILE...THE UKMET...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS SHOWS A MUCH MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND DELAY WEAKENING UNTIL THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARDS THE HIGHER SHEAR SCENARIO INDICATED BY THE GFS BUT DOES NOT WEAKEN BERTHA AS FAST AS THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE HURRICANE'S HEADING DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED... 285/13. HOWEVER...BERTHA IS BEGINNING TO ENCOUNTER A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL TURN TOWARDS THE NORTH AND A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED. THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THIS EVOLUTION...BUT THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD AMONGST THE MODELS ON WHAT LONGITUDE BERTHA WILL TURN NORTH. WHILE THE DEGREE OF THE TURN HAS IMPORTANT IMPLICATIONS REGARDING POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO BERMUDA...IT IS MUCH TO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF BERTHA WILL ACTUALLY THREATEN THAT ISLAND. HOWEVER...INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/1500Z 19.6N 51.3W 80 KT 12HR VT 08/0000Z 20.3N 53.3W 90 KT 24HR VT 08/1200Z 21.2N 55.5W 90 KT 36HR VT 09/0000Z 22.1N 57.5W 85 KT 48HR VT 09/1200Z 23.2N 59.2W 80 KT 72HR VT 10/1200Z 25.5N 62.0W 75 KT 96HR VT 11/1200Z 28.5N 63.5W 70 KT 120HR VT 12/1200Z 31.0N 63.5W 70 KT $$ FORECASTER RHOME WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 7 10:12:36 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m67FCan8032645 for ; Mon, 7 Jul 2008 10:12:36 -0500 Message-Id: <200807071512.m67FCan8032645@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 07 Jul 2008 10:11:42 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 07 Jul 2008 15:12:36 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 071455 TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 18...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 AM AST MON JUL 07 2008 ..CORRECTED PRESSURE... ..BERTHA STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...COULD REACH CATEGORY TWO INTENSITY LATER TODAY... AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.3 WEST OR ABOUT 775 MILES... 1250 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST WITH A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND BERTHA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...19.6 N...51.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER RHOME WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 7 10:57:35 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m67FvZn8000413 for ; Mon, 7 Jul 2008 10:57:35 -0500 Message-Id: <200807071557.m67FvZn8000413@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 07 Jul 2008 10:56:41 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 07 Jul 2008 15:57:36 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 071555 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1155 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161- GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-071800- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON- JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN- CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL- IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE- DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES... CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY... DAWSON...ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTER...ASHBURN... TIFTON...FITZGERALD...OCILLA...DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY... COLQUITT...NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM...MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS... NASHVILLE...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO...THOMASVILLE... QUITMAN...VALDOSTA...LAKELAND 1155 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2008 /1055 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 2 PM EDT (1 PM CDT)...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR EAST OF A LINE FROM ALBANY GEORGIA TO PANAMA CITY FLORIDA...AS THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE IS VERY DRY WEST OF THIS LINE. DESPITE THIS DRY AIR...A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST OF PANAMA CITY AND ALBANY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING FLOW...ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL MOVE SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY. $$ FOURNIER This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 7 12:06:42 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m67H6gn8001354 for ; Mon, 7 Jul 2008 12:06:42 -0500 Message-Id: <200807071706.m67H6gn8001354@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 07 Jul 2008 12:05:48 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 07 Jul 2008 17:06:42 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 071705 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 105 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161- GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-071900- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON- JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN- CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL- IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE- DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES... CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY... DAWSON...ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTER...ASHBURN... TIFTON...FITZGERALD...OCILLA...DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY... COLQUITT...NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM...MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS... NASHVILLE...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO...THOMASVILLE... QUITMAN...VALDOSTA...LAKELAND 105 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2008 /1205 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 3 PM EDT (2 PM CDT)...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ALBANY GEORGIA TO PANAMA CITY FLORIDA. WEST OF THIS LINE THE SHOWERS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED AS THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE IS MUCH DRIER. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS...MAINLY FROM CAPE SAN BLAS SOUTH AND EASTWARD. DUE TO WEAK STEERING CURRENTS ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL TEND TO MOVE SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY. $$ FOURNIER This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 7 12:45:18 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m67HjIn8001803 for ; Mon, 7 Jul 2008 12:45:18 -0500 Message-Id: <200807071745.m67HjIn8001803@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 07 Jul 2008 12:44:24 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 07 Jul 2008 17:45:18 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 071740 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 775 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER RHOME This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 7 13:28:24 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m67ISOn8002083 for ; Mon, 7 Jul 2008 13:28:24 -0500 Message-Id: <200807071828.m67ISOn8002083@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 07 Jul 2008 13:27:30 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 07 Jul 2008 18:28:25 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 071826 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 226 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>010-GAZ120>124-142-072000- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-QUITMAN-CLAY-RANDOLPH-CALHOUN-TERRELL-EARLY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...GEORGETOWN... FORT GAINES...CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON... LEARY...DAWSON...DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY 226 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2008 /126 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 4 PM EDT (3 PM CDT)...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. DUE TO WEAK STEERING CURRENTS ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL TEND TO MOVE SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 7 15:48:41 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m67Kmfn8002813 for ; Mon, 7 Jul 2008 15:48:41 -0500 Message-Id: <200807072048.m67Kmfn8002813@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 07 Jul 2008 15:47:47 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 07 Jul 2008 20:48:41 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 072035 TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 500 PM AST MON JUL 07 2008 ..BERTHA STRENGTHEN TO A MAJOR HURRICANE WITH 115 MPH WINDS... AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.1 WEST OR ABOUT 730 MILES... 1175 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 1150 MILES...1855 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BERTHA IS NOW A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...20.1 N...52.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER RHOME WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 7 15:48:41 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m67Kmfn8002816 for ; Mon, 7 Jul 2008 15:48:41 -0500 Message-Id: <200807072048.m67Kmfn8002816@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 07 Jul 2008 15:47:47 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 07 Jul 2008 20:48:42 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT42 KNHC 072035 TCDAT2 HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 500 PM EDT MON JUL 07 2008 BERTHA'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A VERY DISTINCT EYE NOW SURROUNDED BY A RING OF COLD CLOUD TOPS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T NUMBERS WERE UNANIMOUSLY 5.0 BUT OBJECTIVE NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO 6.0 FOR THE PAST 3 HOURS. THIS SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KT MAKING BERTHA A MAJOR CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. BERTHA'S INTENSIFICATION TO MAJOR HURRICANE TODAY HIGHLIGHTS THE DIFFICULTIES OF FORECASTING RAPID INTENSITY CHANGES. IN THE SHORT-TERM...SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW AND THE INTENSITY WILL BE PRIMARILY CONTROLLED BY EYEWALL CYCLES. AS A RESULT...SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY. IN A DAY OR TWO...THE GFS MODEL STILL INDICATES INCREASING SHEAR. THE SHIPS AND LGEM STATISTICAL MODELS...WHICH BASE THEIR SHEAR ESTIMATES FROM THE GFS...SHOW WEAKENING BEYOND 24 HOURS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. BERTHA HAS BEEN MOVING MORE TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED...BOTH INDICATIONS THAT THE HURRICANE HAS REACHED THE MUCH-ANTICIPATED WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. SINCE BERTHA COULD BE WOBBLING...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE BASED ON A 12 HOUR AVERAGE IS 300/10. TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GRADUAL NORTHWARD TURN DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE STEERING CURRENTS COULD BECOME WEAK LEADING TO INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST. EVEN THOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST...IT IS STILL WAY TOO SOON TO DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT BERTHA WILL AFFECT BERMUDA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/2100Z 20.1N 52.1W 100 KT 12HR VT 08/0600Z 20.8N 53.5W 100 KT 24HR VT 08/1800Z 21.7N 55.4W 95 KT 36HR VT 09/0600Z 22.9N 57.3W 90 KT 48HR VT 09/1800Z 24.0N 59.0W 85 KT 72HR VT 10/1800Z 26.5N 61.5W 80 KT 96HR VT 11/1800Z 29.0N 62.5W 75 KT 120HR VT 12/1800Z 31.5N 62.5W 75 KT $$ FORECASTER RHOME WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 7 15:49:44 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m67Knin8002834 for ; Mon, 7 Jul 2008 15:49:44 -0500 Message-Id: <200807072049.m67Knin8002834@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 07 Jul 2008 15:48:49 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 07 Jul 2008 20:49:44 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 072046 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 446 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2008 ALZ065>069-072230- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH 346 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2008 NOW... THROUGH 530 PM CDT...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA FROM SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. OTHERS WILL GRAZE THE BORDER WITH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE STORMS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH AND WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT AREAS FROM DOTHAN SOUTH AND EAST. $$ 18-WOOL This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 7 15:49:44 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m67Knin8002837 for ; Mon, 7 Jul 2008 15:49:44 -0500 Message-Id: <200807072049.m67Knin8002837@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 07 Jul 2008 15:48:49 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 07 Jul 2008 20:49:44 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 072046 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 446 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2008 FLZ007>014-GMZ750-770-072230- INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY- CALHOUN-GULF- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA 446 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2008 /346 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 530 PM CDT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE STORMS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH AND WILL BE PRIMARILY CONCENTRATED BOTH NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 AND JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST FROM PANAMA CITY TO EGLIN AIR FORCE BASE. $$ 18-WOOL This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 7 16:39:44 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m67Ldin8003113 for ; Mon, 7 Jul 2008 16:39:44 -0500 Message-Id: <200807072139.m67Ldin8003113@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 07 Jul 2008 16:38:49 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 07 Jul 2008 21:39:44 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 072137 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 437 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2008 ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-072345- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY- GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM... MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN... PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE... LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON... ANDALUSIA...OPP...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE... TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY... SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA... FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY... MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW... WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE... EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT... NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE 437 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2008 NOW... ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE WEST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 7 PM. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR OVER INLAND AREAS...PRIMARILY ALONG THE I-65 CORRIDOR OF BUTLER AND CONECUH COUNTIES OF ALABAMA AND STONE COUNTY OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE BRIEF WIND GUSTS FROM 35 TO 45 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND SMALL HAIL. ALTHOUGH THESE STORMS ARE PRESENTLY BELOW SEVERE LEVELS...WIND GUSTS FROM THESE STORMS CAN DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND SMALL UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 7 18:36:42 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m67Nagn8003709 for ; Mon, 7 Jul 2008 18:36:42 -0500 Message-Id: <200807072336.m67Nagn8003709@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 07 Jul 2008 18:35:48 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 07 Jul 2008 23:36:43 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 072329 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 730 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER AVILA This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 7 19:15:46 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m680Fkn8003927 for ; Mon, 7 Jul 2008 19:15:46 -0500 Message-Id: <200807080015.m680Fkn8003927@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 07 Jul 2008 19:14:52 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 08 Jul 2008 00:15:47 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 080012 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 812 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>018-026-027-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>159-080200- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON- JEFFERSON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-QUITMAN-CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY- LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL- COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES... CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY... DAWSON...ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTER...ASHBURN... TIFTON...FITZGERALD...OCILLA...DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY... COLQUITT...NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM...MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS... NASHVILLE...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO...THOMASVILLE... QUITMAN 812 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2008 /712 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 1000 PM EDT...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATED WITH MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND...THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA REMAINING DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. $$ MROCZKA This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 7 19:39:04 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m680d4n8004141 for ; Mon, 7 Jul 2008 19:39:04 -0500 Message-Id: <200807080039.m680d4n8004141@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 07 Jul 2008 19:38:09 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 08 Jul 2008 00:39:04 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 080013 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 713 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2008 ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-080215- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY- WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM... MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN... PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE... LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON... ANDALUSIA...OPP...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE... TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY... SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA... FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY... MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW... WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE... EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT... NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE 713 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2008 NOW... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 9 PM...GRADUALLY DISSIPATING IN COVERAGE. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...PRIMARILY ALONG THE EAST OF I-65 AND NORTH OF I-10. MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...PRIMARILY OVER GREENE COUNTY. THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE BRIEF WIND GUSTS FROM 35 TO 45 MPH...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND SMALL HAIL. ALTHOUGH THESE STORMS ARE PRESENTLY BELOW SEVERE LEVELS... WIND GUSTS FROM THESE STORMS CAN DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND SMALL UNSECURED OBJECTS. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 7 21:40:03 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m682e3n8005082 for ; Mon, 7 Jul 2008 21:40:03 -0500 Message-Id: <200807080240.m682e3n8005082@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 07 Jul 2008 21:39:07 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 08 Jul 2008 02:40:03 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 080235 TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 PM AST MON JUL 07 2008 ..POWERFUL HURRICANE BERTHA OVER OPEN WATERS... AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.8 WEST OR ABOUT 695 MILES... 1115 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 1085 MILES...1745 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BERTHA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE 12 TO 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WEAKENING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...20.8 N...52.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 7 21:40:03 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m682e3n8005085 for ; Mon, 7 Jul 2008 21:40:03 -0500 Message-Id: <200807080240.m682e3n8005085@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 07 Jul 2008 21:39:08 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 08 Jul 2008 02:40:03 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT42 KNHC 080236 TCDAT2 HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 PM EDT MON JUL 07 2008 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BETWEEN 1900 AND 2300 UTC...BOTH NHC AND CIMSS OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS WERE OSCILLATING AROUND 6.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. NORMALLY THESE NUMBERS CORRESPOND TO AN INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS. DURING THAT TIME THE EYE BECAME VERY DISTINCT AND WAS SURROUNDED BY VERY COLD TOPS. BERTHA COULD HAVE REACHED A PEAK INTENSITY A LITTLE BIT HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED DURING THAT PERIOD. SINCE THEN...OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE COME DOWN A LITTLE BIT AND NEW ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED. THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO BE CONTROLLED BY EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WHEN BERTHA COULD FLUCTUATE IN INTENSITY. THEREAFTER... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHT WEAKENING DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR BUT NOT AS MUCH WEAKENING AS PREDICTED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. NEVERTHELESS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE TRACK FORECAST HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE CERTAIN SINCE THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS SMALLER. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS WHILE APPROACHING A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD SOME AND THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR A CONTINUATION OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR A DAY OR TWO....FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. BY DAYS 4 AND 5 THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AND BERTHA WILL PROBABLY MEANDER FOR A LITTLE BIT. BERTHA IS CERTAINLY NOT THE ONLY MAJOR HURRICANE THAT HAS FORMED IN THE MONTH OF JULY. THE LAST OCCURRENCES WERE HURRICANES DENNIS AND EMILY IN 2005. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/0300Z 20.8N 52.8W 105 KT 12HR VT 08/1200Z 21.5N 54.2W 100 KT 24HR VT 09/0000Z 22.5N 56.0W 100 KT 36HR VT 09/1200Z 23.5N 58.0W 95 KT 48HR VT 10/0000Z 25.0N 59.5W 85 KT 72HR VT 11/0000Z 27.5N 61.5W 80 KT 96HR VT 12/0000Z 30.0N 62.0W 75 KT 120HR VT 13/0000Z 32.0N 62.0W 75 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 8 00:43:18 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m685hIn8006031 for ; Tue, 8 Jul 2008 00:43:18 -0500 Message-Id: <200807080543.m685hIn8006031@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 08 Jul 2008 00:42:22 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 08 Jul 2008 05:43:19 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 080529 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 1085 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER PASCH This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 8 03:21:07 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m688L6n8006633 for ; Tue, 8 Jul 2008 03:21:06 -0500 Message-Id: <200807080821.m688L6n8006633@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 08 Jul 2008 03:20:10 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 08 Jul 2008 08:21:07 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 080818 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 418 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2008 FLZ008-012-014-015-027-028-034-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-081100- COASTAL WALTON-BAY-GULF-FRANKLIN-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-DIXIE- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...INWOOD...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...WHITE CITY...PORT ST. JOE... WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...CROSS CITY 418 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2008 /318 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 700 AM EDT (600 AM CDT)...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH ACROSS APALACHEE BAY. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER FRANKLIN...WAKULLA...JEFFERSON...AND TAYLOR COUNTIES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. $$ GOULD This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 8 03:46:31 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m688kVn8006780 for ; Tue, 8 Jul 2008 03:46:31 -0500 Message-Id: <200807080846.m688kVn8006780@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 08 Jul 2008 03:45:34 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 08 Jul 2008 08:46:31 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 080831 TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 500 AM AST TUE JUL 08 2008 ..POWERFUL BERTHA MAINTAINING MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS... AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.3 WEST OR ABOUT 675 MILES... 1085 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 1035 MILES...1660 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BERTHA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY MAY OCCUR TODAY... BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...21.4 N...53.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER PASCH WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 8 03:46:31 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m688kVn8006783 for ; Tue, 8 Jul 2008 03:46:31 -0500 Message-Id: <200807080846.m688kVn8006783@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 08 Jul 2008 03:45:34 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 08 Jul 2008 08:46:31 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT42 KNHC 080832 TCDAT2 HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 500 AM EDT TUE JUL 08 2008 THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS DISTINCT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. NONETHELESS...BERTHA HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A FAIRLY SYMMETRICAL RING OF COLD CLOUD TOPS AROUND THE CENTER. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE COME DOWN SLIGHTLY BUT CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES...BOTH OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE... REMAIN CLOSE TO 105 KT. HENCE THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS UNCHANGED. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ASSOCIATED WITH EYEWALL REPLACEMENTS COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. IN THE LONGER-TERM... THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING AS BERTHA MOVES TOWARDS HIGHER LATITUDES. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE SHIPS MODEL...WHICH WEAKENS BERTHA TO MINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS ICON. EYE FIXES GIVE A MOTION ESTIMATE OF 310/9 WHICH IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT BERTHA WILL HEAD FOR A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND TURN NORTHWARD LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS HAVE BEEN CALLING FOR THIS SCENARIO MORE CONSISTENTLY THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS STILL TO THE WEST OF MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL TRACKS AS WELL AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS. BY DAY 5...STEERING CURRENTS COULD BECOME QUITE WEAK AND BERTHA MAY MOVE SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY AS IT WAITS TO BE EVENTUALLY PICKED UP BY A TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/0900Z 21.4N 53.3W 105 KT 12HR VT 08/1800Z 22.2N 54.4W 100 KT 24HR VT 09/0600Z 23.4N 55.9W 95 KT 36HR VT 09/1800Z 24.7N 57.4W 90 KT 48HR VT 10/0600Z 26.0N 58.6W 85 KT 72HR VT 11/0600Z 28.0N 59.5W 80 KT 96HR VT 12/0600Z 30.0N 59.5W 75 KT 120HR VT 13/0600Z 32.0N 59.0W 70 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 8 04:25:18 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m689PHn8007352 for ; Tue, 8 Jul 2008 04:25:18 -0500 Message-Id: <200807080925.m689PHn8007352@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 08 Jul 2008 04:24:21 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Hazardous Weather Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 08 Jul 2008 09:25:18 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FLUS42 KTAE 080915 HWOTAE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 515 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161- GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-090900- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON- JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN- CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL- IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE- DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- 515 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2008 /415 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2008/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA... SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN TODAY. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 8 05:22:14 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m68AMEn8007859 for ; Tue, 8 Jul 2008 05:22:14 -0500 Message-Id: <200807081022.m68AMEn8007859@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 08 Jul 2008 05:21:17 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 08 Jul 2008 10:22:15 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 081019 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 619 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2008 FLZ008-012-014-015-018-027-028-034-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775- 081300- COASTAL WALTON-BAY-GULF-FRANKLIN-JEFFERSON-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-DIXIE- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...INWOOD...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...WHITE CITY...PORT ST. JOE... WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...MONTICELLO... SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS...PERRY...CROSS CITY 619 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2008 /519 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 900 AM EDT (800 AM CDT)...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH ACROSS APALACHEE BAY AND THE WATERS OFF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT A FEW MAY IMPACT WAKULLA FRANKLIN AND GULF COUNTIES. $$ GOULD This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 8 05:24:18 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m68AOIn8007877 for ; Tue, 8 Jul 2008 05:24:18 -0500 Message-Id: <200807081024.m68AOIn8007877@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 08 Jul 2008 05:23:21 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 08 Jul 2008 10:24:18 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 081021 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 521 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2008 ALZ063-064-FLZ002-004-006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-081330- LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA- COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY- COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE... FAIRHOPE...FOLEY...SPANISH FORT...PENSACOLA...FERRY PASS... BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY...MYRTLE GROVE... PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH... NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE...EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO 521 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2008 NOW... SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...WILL MOVE NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH OVER THE GULF WATERS THIS MORNING. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL OCCASIONALLY MOVE OVER AREA BEACHES BEFORE DISSIPATING. IF CAUGHT ON THE OPEN WATER AND A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES YOUR AREA...BE PREPARED TO MOVE BELOW DECK AND AWAY FROM METAL OBJECTS. IF WHILE VENTURING OUT ON AREA BEACHES...AND YOU HEAR THUNDER...LIGHTNING CAN BE CLOSE ENOUGH AS TO POSE A HAZARD. BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO A PLACE OF SHELTER. EARLY MORNING WATERSPOUTS ARE ALSO POSSIBILITY...SO KEEP A WATCHFUL EYE. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 8 06:08:04 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m68B84n8008116 for ; Tue, 8 Jul 2008 06:08:04 -0500 Message-Id: <200807081108.m68B84n8008116@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 08 Jul 2008 06:07:07 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Hazardous Weather Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 08 Jul 2008 11:08:04 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FLUS44 KMOB 081105 HWOMOB HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 605 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2008 ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078- 079-091115- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY- COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY- GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- 605 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2008 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...THE COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY...WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS UP TO 45 MPH BEING THE MAIN THREATS. THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FORMING IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT SUPPORTS A MODERATE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WET MICRO-BURST WINDS. THEREFORE...A FEW OF THE ISOLATED STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE DAMAGING WINDS. DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN...WITH ALL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 8 06:34:27 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m68BYRn8008265 for ; Tue, 8 Jul 2008 06:34:27 -0500 Message-Id: <200807081134.m68BYRn8008265@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 08 Jul 2008 06:33:30 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 08 Jul 2008 11:34:27 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 081129 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 1035 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER PASCH WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 8 08:45:54 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m68Djrn8008963 for ; Tue, 8 Jul 2008 08:45:54 -0500 Message-Id: <200807081345.m68Djrn8008963@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 08 Jul 2008 08:44:56 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 08 Jul 2008 13:45:54 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 081343 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 843 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2008 ALZ063-064-FLZ002-004-006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-081600- LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA- COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY- COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE... FAIRHOPE...FOLEY...SPANISH FORT...PENSACOLA...FERRY PASS... BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY...MYRTLE GROVE... PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH... NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE...EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO 843 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2008 NOW... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE OVER THE GULF WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TO THE WEST AT 10 MPH. WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF WATERS AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST THROUGH LATE MORNING. THESE WATERSPOUTS WILL BE VISIBLE TO BEACH-GOERS AND WILL POSE A THREAT TO BOATERS WHO GET TOO CLOSE TO THEM. BOATERS SHOULD AVOID WATERSPOUTS AS THEY CAN SINK SMALL BOATS AND CAUSE SERIOUS INJURY TO THOSE ON BOARD. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE INLAND AREAS BETWEEN 11 AM AND 3 PM. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE INLAND AREAS WILL BECOME STRONG PRODUCING WIND GUSTS FROM 40 TO 50 MPH...IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...SMALL HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAINS. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 8 08:45:54 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m68Djsn8008966 for ; Tue, 8 Jul 2008 08:45:54 -0500 Message-Id: <200807081345.m68Djsn8008966@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 08 Jul 2008 08:44:56 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 08 Jul 2008 13:45:54 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 081343 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 843 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2008 ALZ051>062-FLZ001-003-005-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-081600- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA- INLAND SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM... MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN... PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE... LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON... ANDALUSIA...OPP...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE...CENTURY... FLOMATON...MOLINO...JAY...CRESTVIEW...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON... BEAUMONT...NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS... LUCEDALE 843 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2008 NOW... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTH ALABAMA DURING THE COURSE OF THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS IN COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL MOVE TO THE WEST AT 10 MPH. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME STRONG PRODUCING WIND GUSTS FROM 40 TO 50 MPH...IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...SMALL HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAINS. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 8 08:57:00 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m68Dv0n8009081 for ; Tue, 8 Jul 2008 08:57:00 -0500 Message-Id: <200807081357.m68Dv0n8009081@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 08 Jul 2008 08:56:03 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 08 Jul 2008 13:57:01 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 081355 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 955 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2008 FLZ008-012-014-015-018-027-028-034-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775- 081600- COASTAL WALTON-BAY-GULF-FRANKLIN-JEFFERSON-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-DIXIE- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...INWOOD...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...WHITE CITY...PORT ST. JOE... WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...MONTICELLO... SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS...PERRY...CROSS CITY 955 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2008 /855 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2008/ NOW... THROUGH THE LATE MORNING...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GULF WATERS AND MOVE NORTHWEST ONTO THE COAST FROM AROUND ALLIGATOR POINT TO APALACHICOLA. OTHER SCATTERED ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP INLAND BY NOON. $$ GOREE This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 8 09:52:57 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m68Eqvn8009384 for ; Tue, 8 Jul 2008 09:52:57 -0500 Message-Id: <200807081452.m68Eqvn8009384@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 08 Jul 2008 09:51:59 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 08 Jul 2008 14:52:57 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 081441 TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 AM AST TUE JUL 08 2008 ..BERTHA WEAKENS BUT STILL A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE... AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.8 WEST OR ABOUT 660 MILES... 1065 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 975 MILES...1570 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...22.1 N...53.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER RHOME WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 8 09:52:57 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m68Eqvn8009387 for ; Tue, 8 Jul 2008 09:52:57 -0500 Message-Id: <200807081452.m68Eqvn8009387@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 08 Jul 2008 09:51:59 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 08 Jul 2008 14:52:57 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT42 KNHC 081440 TCDAT2 HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 AM EDT TUE JUL 08 2008 CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOW A RAPID DEGRADATION OF BERTHA'S STRUCTURE DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. THE EYE HAS DISAPPEARED AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY. THERE IS ALSO EVIDENCE IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY THAT THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE EYEWALL HAS ERODED. A BLEND OF THE FINAL T AND CI NUMBERS FROM THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KT AND LATEST OBJECTIVE T NUMBERS SUGGEST AN EVEN LOWER INTENSITY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY SET AT 90 KT. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT BERTHA HAS FINALLY ENCOUNTERED THE HIGHER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WE'VE BEEN FORECASTING. ADDITIONALLY...THE CYCLONE IS MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS AND THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT IT COULD BE ENTRAINING DRY AIR. BOTTOM LINE...THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS RATHER HOSTILE AND BERTHA SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN THE SHORT-TERM. TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE SHEAR COULD RELAX AND SSTS INCREASE SO THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE RE-INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN INTENSITY FORECASTING...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MERELY SHOWS SLOW WEAKENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE VARIOUS INTENSITY MODELS. BERTHA HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE OR 315/9. BERTHA SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WEAKENS AND IS REPLACED BY A WEAK TROUGH. SINCE THE STEERING CURRENTS COULD BECOME RATHER WEAK AS A RESULT OF THIS EVOLUTION...BERTHA COULD MOVE SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST. IT IS FOR THIS REASON THAT INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TRACK MODELS HAVE NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE LAST FORECAST SO ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/1500Z 22.1N 53.8W 90 KT 12HR VT 09/0000Z 23.1N 54.9W 85 KT 24HR VT 09/1200Z 24.3N 56.4W 80 KT 36HR VT 10/0000Z 25.5N 57.8W 80 KT 48HR VT 10/1200Z 26.6N 58.7W 75 KT 72HR VT 11/1200Z 28.5N 59.5W 70 KT 96HR VT 12/1200Z 30.5N 59.5W 65 KT 120HR VT 13/1200Z 32.5N 58.5W 65 KT $$ FORECASTER RHOME WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 8 11:05:28 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m68G5Sn8009792 for ; Tue, 8 Jul 2008 11:05:28 -0500 Message-Id: <200807081605.m68G5Sn8009792@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 08 Jul 2008 11:04:29 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 08 Jul 2008 16:05:28 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 081602 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 1102 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2008 ALZ063-064-FLZ002-004-006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-081800- LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA- COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY- COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE... FAIRHOPE...FOLEY...SPANISH FORT...PENSACOLA...FERRY PASS... BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY...MYRTLE GROVE... PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH... NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE...EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO 1102 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2008 NOW... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE OVER THE GULF WATERS WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP INLAND DURING THE COURSE OF THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE WATERSPOUTS WILL BE VISIBLE TO BEACH-GOERS AND WILL POSE A THREAT TO BOATERS WHO GET TOO CLOSE TO THEM. BOATERS SHOULD AVOID WATERSPOUTS AS THEY CAN SINK SMALL BOATS AND CAUSE SERIOUS INJURY TO THOSE ON BOARD. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE INLAND AREAS AND INSHORE WATERWAYS THROUGH 3 PM. THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS FROM JUST NORTH OF PENSACOLA AND ACROSS THE MOBILE BAY AREA. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME STRONG PRODUCING WIND GUSTS FROM 40 TO 50 MPH...IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...SMALL HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAINS. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 8 11:05:28 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m68G5Sn8009795 for ; Tue, 8 Jul 2008 11:05:28 -0500 Message-Id: <200807081605.m68G5Sn8009795@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 08 Jul 2008 11:04:30 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 08 Jul 2008 16:05:28 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 081602 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 1102 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2008 ALZ051>062-FLZ001-003-005-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-081800- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA- INLAND SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM... MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN... PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE... LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON... ANDALUSIA...OPP...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE...CENTURY... FLOMATON...MOLINO...JAY...CRESTVIEW...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON... BEAUMONT...NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS... LUCEDALE 1102 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2008 NOW... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. MOVEMENT OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TO THE WEST AT 10 MPH. THROUGH 1 PM...THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS FROM THE PENSACOLA AREA WESTWARD ACROSS THE MOBILE BAY AREA...AND INLAND ACROSS THE CITRONELLE...CHATOM...LUCEDALE AND LEAKESVILLE AREAS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME STRONG PRODUCING WIND GUSTS FROM 40 TO 50 MPH...IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...SMALL HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAINS. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 8 11:54:20 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m68GsJn8010088 for ; Tue, 8 Jul 2008 11:54:20 -0500 Message-Id: <200807081654.m68GsJn8010088@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 08 Jul 2008 11:53:21 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Local Storm Report X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 08 Jul 2008 16:54:20 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) NWUS54 KMOB 081652 LSRMOB PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 1152 AM CDT TUE JUL 08 2008 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 1148 AM WATER SPOUT HOLLINGERS ISLAND 30.55N 88.11W 07/08/2008 MOBILE AL PUBLIC PUBLIC REPORTED WATER SPOUT OVER MOBILE BAY NEAR THE DOG RIVER BRIDGE. && $$ GARMON This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 8 12:14:34 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m68HEYn8010205 for ; Tue, 8 Jul 2008 12:14:34 -0500 Message-Id: <200807081714.m68HEYn8010205@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 08 Jul 2008 12:13:36 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 08 Jul 2008 17:14:34 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 081711 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 111 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>011-GAZ120>131-142>148-155-081915- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-QUITMAN-CLAY-RANDOLPH-CALHOUN-TERRELL- DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER- MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES... CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY... DAWSON...ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTER...ASHBURN... TIFTON...FITZGERALD...OCILLA...DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY... COLQUITT...NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM...MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS... NASHVILLE...DONALSONVILLE 111 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2008 /1211 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2008/ NOW...THROUGH 300 PM EDT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD DOMINATE AS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST...AND SHOULD NOT MOVE NORTH UNTIL THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS. $$ BLOEMER/GODSEY This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 8 12:40:57 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m68Hevn8010354 for ; Tue, 8 Jul 2008 12:40:57 -0500 Message-Id: <200807081740.m68Hevn8010354@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 08 Jul 2008 12:39:58 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 08 Jul 2008 17:40:57 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 081733 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 975 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER RHOME WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 8 14:07:53 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m68J7rn8011248 for ; Tue, 8 Jul 2008 14:07:53 -0500 Message-Id: <200807081907.m68J7rn8011248@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 08 Jul 2008 14:06:55 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 08 Jul 2008 19:07:53 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 081755 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 1254 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2008 ALZ063-064-FLZ002-004-006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-081930- LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA- COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY- COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE... FAIRHOPE...FOLEY...SPANISH FORT...PENSACOLA...FERRY PASS... BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY...MYRTLE GROVE... PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH... NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE...EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO 1254 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2008 NOW... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 THROUGH 6 PM...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE BEACHES AND OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME STRONG PRODUCING WIND GUSTS FROM 40 TO 50 MPH...IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...SMALL HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAINS. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 8 14:07:53 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m68J7rn8011251 for ; Tue, 8 Jul 2008 14:07:53 -0500 Message-Id: <200807081907.m68J7rn8011251@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 08 Jul 2008 14:06:55 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 08 Jul 2008 19:07:54 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 081755 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 1254 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2008 ALZ051>062-FLZ001-003-005-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-081930- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA- INLAND SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM... MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN... PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE... LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON... ANDALUSIA...OPP...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE...CENTURY... FLOMATON...MOLINO...JAY...CRESTVIEW...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON... BEAUMONT...NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS... LUCEDALE 1254 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2008 NOW... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. MOVEMENT OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME STRONG PRODUCING WIND GUSTS FROM 40 TO 50 MPH...IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...SMALL HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAINS. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 8 14:09:58 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m68J9wn8011275 for ; Tue, 8 Jul 2008 14:09:58 -0500 Message-Id: <200807081909.m68J9wn8011275@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 08 Jul 2008 14:08:59 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Hazardous Weather Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 08 Jul 2008 19:09:58 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FLUS44 KMOB 081859 HWOMOB HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 158 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2008 ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078- 079-091115- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY- COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY- GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- 158 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2008 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND THE ADJACENT GULF COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA. DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 THROUGH SUNSET...AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 50 MPH...AND SMALL HAIL. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAN AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP WITH LOCALIZED WINDS TO NEAR 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE INLAND AREAS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...RE-DEVELOPING OFFSHORE DURING THE EARLY MORNING. DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN...WITH ALL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... STORMS SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTIVATION FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 8 14:44:28 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m68JiSn8011520 for ; Tue, 8 Jul 2008 14:44:28 -0500 Message-Id: <200807081944.m68JiSn8011520@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 08 Jul 2008 14:43:29 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 08 Jul 2008 19:44:28 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 081928 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 328 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026-027-GAZ142>147-155>161-082100- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON- JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL- COLQUITT-COOK-SEMINOLE-DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY...COLQUITT...NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM... MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO... THOMASVILLE...QUITMAN...VALDOSTA...LAKELAND 328 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2008 /228 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 500 PM EDT (400 PM CDT)...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SLOWLY OFF TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST ACROSS PORTION OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. ANY STORMS SHOULD BE BRIEF IN NATURE BUT MAY PRODUCE A HEAVY DOWNPOUR AND SCATTERED LIGHTNING STRIKES. $$ MROCZKA This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 8 14:44:39 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m68Jidn8011529 for ; Tue, 8 Jul 2008 14:44:39 -0500 Message-Id: <200807081944.m68Jidn8011529@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 08 Jul 2008 14:43:41 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 08 Jul 2008 19:44:39 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 081923 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 223 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2008 ALZ063-064-FLZ002-004-006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-082200- LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA- COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY- COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE... FAIRHOPE...FOLEY...SPANISH FORT...PENSACOLA...FERRY PASS... BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY...MYRTLE GROVE... PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH... NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE...EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO 223 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2008 NOW... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 THROUGH 7 PM...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BEACHES AND OVER THE GULF WATERS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS FROM 40 TO 50 MPH...IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...SMALL HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAINS. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE INLAND AREAS SHORTLY AFTER 7 PM...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 8 14:44:39 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m68Jidn8011532 for ; Tue, 8 Jul 2008 14:44:39 -0500 Message-Id: <200807081944.m68Jidn8011532@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 08 Jul 2008 14:43:41 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 08 Jul 2008 19:44:39 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 081923 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 223 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2008 ALZ051>062-FLZ001-003-005-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-082200- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA- INLAND SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM... MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN... PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE... LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON... ANDALUSIA...OPP...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE...CENTURY... FLOMATON...MOLINO...JAY...CRESTVIEW...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON... BEAUMONT...NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS... LUCEDALE 223 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2008 NOW... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 6 PM... MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH ACROSS THE REGION. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WILL BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS FROM 40 TO 50 MPH...IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...SMALL HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAINS. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 8 15:44:18 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m68KiIn8011867 for ; Tue, 8 Jul 2008 15:44:18 -0500 Message-Id: <200807082044.m68KiIn8011867@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 08 Jul 2008 15:43:20 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 08 Jul 2008 20:44:19 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 082032 TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 500 PM AST TUE JUL 08 2008 ..BERTHA WEAKENS TO A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE... AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.8 WEST OR ABOUT 620 MILES... 1000 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 900 MILES...1450 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF COULD BEGIN TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF BERMUDA LATE TOMORROW. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...22.7 N...54.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER RHOME WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 8 15:44:18 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m68KiIn8011870 for ; Tue, 8 Jul 2008 15:44:18 -0500 Message-Id: <200807082044.m68KiIn8011870@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 08 Jul 2008 15:43:20 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 08 Jul 2008 20:44:19 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT42 KNHC 082031 TCDAT2 HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 500 PM EDT TUE JUL 08 2008 BERTHA'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION CONTINUES TO DEGRADE THIS AFTERNOON AND DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS HAVE FALLEN DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 75 KT BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THE VARIOUS INTENSITY ESTIMATES. INDEED...BERTHA'S RAPID INTENSIFICATION YESTERDAY HAS BEEN EQUALED BY ITS RAPID WEAKENING TODAY. SUCH INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS REMAIN A FORECASTING CHALLENGE AND SERVE AS AN IMPORTANT REMINDER FOR THE UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSITY FORECASTS. GIVEN THE CURRENT TREND IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...CONTINUED WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT-TERM. MOST OF THE INTENSITY MODELS SUGGEST THAT BERTHA MIGHT EVEN REGAIN SOME STRENGTH LATER IN THE FORECAST AS THE SHEAR RELAXES AND THE SSTS INCREASE. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS SLIGHT WEAKENING IN THE SHORT-TERM WITH LITTLE CHANGE THEREAFTER. BERTHA CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 310/10. BERTHA SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WEAKENS AND IS REPLACED BY A WEAK TROUGH. THIS EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN COULD RESULT IN THE STEERING CURRENTS BECOMING RATHER WEAK BEYOND 72 HOURS...AND BERTHA COULD MOVE SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST. IT IS FOR THIS REASON THAT INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TRACK MODELS HAVE NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY AND NEITHER HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/2100Z 22.7N 54.8W 75 KT 12HR VT 09/0600Z 23.6N 56.0W 70 KT 24HR VT 09/1800Z 24.8N 57.4W 65 KT 36HR VT 10/0600Z 26.0N 58.5W 65 KT 48HR VT 10/1800Z 27.0N 59.2W 65 KT 72HR VT 11/1800Z 29.0N 60.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 12/1800Z 31.0N 59.5W 60 KT 120HR VT 13/1800Z 33.0N 58.5W 60 KT $$ FORECASTER RHOME WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 8 15:57:49 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m68Kvnn8011955 for ; Tue, 8 Jul 2008 15:57:49 -0500 Message-Id: <200807082057.m68Kvnn8011955@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 08 Jul 2008 15:56:51 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Special Weather Statement X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 08 Jul 2008 20:57:50 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WWUS84 KMOB 082055 SPSMOB SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 355 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2008 ALZ056-082145- CONECUH- 355 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2008 ..A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS BEING DETECTED OVER CONECUH COUNTY... AT 355 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF I65 AND CR 6...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND... LENOX...BELLEVILLE...LOREE AND NICHBURG THROUGH 445 PM CDT. THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG COULD DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 8 17:04:10 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m68M4An8012369 for ; Tue, 8 Jul 2008 17:04:10 -0500 Message-Id: <200807082204.m68M4An8012369@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 08 Jul 2008 17:03:11 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 08 Jul 2008 22:04:10 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 082201 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 501 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2008 ALZ063-064-FLZ002-004-006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-090000- LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA- COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY- COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE... FAIRHOPE...FOLEY...SPANISH FORT...PENSACOLA...FERRY PASS... BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY...MYRTLE GROVE... PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH... NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE...EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO 501 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2008 NOW... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE WITH STORMS SLIPPING NORTH AND NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INLAND AREAS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF BECOMING STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE BRIEF WIND GUSTS FROM 40 TO 50 MPH...IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...SMALL HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAINS. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO SHOW A DIMINISHING TREND OVER THE INLAND AREAS SHORTLY AFTER 7 PM. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO PERSIST OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 8 17:04:10 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m68M4An8012372 for ; Tue, 8 Jul 2008 17:04:10 -0500 Message-Id: <200807082204.m68M4An8012372@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 08 Jul 2008 17:03:11 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 08 Jul 2008 22:04:10 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 082201 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 501 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2008 ALZ051>062-FLZ001-003-005-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-090000- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA- INLAND SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM... MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN... PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE... LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON... ANDALUSIA...OPP...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE...CENTURY... FLOMATON...MOLINO...JAY...CRESTVIEW...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON... BEAUMONT...NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS... LUCEDALE 501 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2008 NOW... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 7 PM... MOVING NORTH AND NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ACROSS THE REGION. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF BECOMING STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE BRIEF WIND GUSTS FROM 40 TO 50 MPH...IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...SMALL HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAINS. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER 7 PM. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 8 18:47:59 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m68Nlxn8012890 for ; Tue, 8 Jul 2008 18:47:59 -0500 Message-Id: <200807082347.m68Nlxn8012890@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 08 Jul 2008 18:47:00 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 08 Jul 2008 23:47:59 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 082330 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER AVILA WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 8 21:35:56 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m692Zun8013764 for ; Tue, 8 Jul 2008 21:35:56 -0500 Message-Id: <200807090235.m692Zun8013764@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 08 Jul 2008 21:34:57 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 09 Jul 2008 02:35:57 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 090231 TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 PM AST TUE JUL 08 2008 ..BERTHA CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER THE ATLANTIC... AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.8 WEST OR ABOUT 580 MILES... 935 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 840 MILES...1350 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF COULD BEGIN TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF BERMUDA LATE TOMORROW. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...23.1 N...55.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 8 21:35:57 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m692Zvn8013767 for ; Tue, 8 Jul 2008 21:35:57 -0500 Message-Id: <200807090235.m692Zvn8013767@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 08 Jul 2008 21:34:57 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 09 Jul 2008 02:35:57 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT42 KNHC 090231 TCDAT2 HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 PM EDT TUE JUL 08 2008 THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH BERTHA. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS IN A WELL-DEFINED CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. BASED ON DVORAK T-NUMBERS...THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INTENSITY IS 70 KNOTS. I AM NOT QUITE SURE IF BERTHA HAS GIVEN UP AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. THE HURRICANE IS HEADING FOR WARMER WATERS AND LOWER SHEAR SO REINTENSIFICATION IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. BECAUSE OF THE MIXED SIGNALS AMONG GUIDANCE...WITH THE SHIPS MODEL WEAKENING THE HURRICANE AND BOTH GFDL AND HWRF SUGGESTING SLIGHT STRENGTHENING...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS OPTED TO KEEP BERTHA AS A 70 KT HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND GRADUAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED. BERTHA HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED BEYOND 48 HOURS AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...THIS GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION BETWEEN 48 AND 120 HOURS IS EXPECTED TO BE PAINFULLY SLOW SINCE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO BE VERY WEAK. THERE WAS A SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE. UNANIMOUSLY...THEY ALL SHIFTED A DEGREE OR TWO WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE HWRF WHICH WAS FARTHER EAST AND HAS NOW JOINED THE REST OF THE MODEL SUITE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST WAS SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT TO THE WEST AND IS NOW ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...IN FACT...JUST EAST OF THE GFDL AND THE HWRF. I DO NOT WANT TO CHANGE THE TRACK TOO MUCH SINCE I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE GUIDANCE SHIFTS BACK TO THE EAST IN THE NEXT RUN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/0300Z 23.1N 55.8W 70 KT 12HR VT 09/1200Z 24.0N 57.0W 70 KT 24HR VT 10/0000Z 25.5N 58.5W 70 KT 36HR VT 10/1200Z 27.0N 60.0W 70 KT 48HR VT 11/0000Z 28.0N 60.5W 70 KT 72HR VT 12/0000Z 30.0N 61.0W 70 KT 96HR VT 13/0000Z 31.5N 61.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 14/0000Z 33.5N 60.0W 60 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 9 00:54:27 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m695sRn8014834 for ; Wed, 9 Jul 2008 00:54:27 -0500 Message-Id: <200807090554.m695sRn8014834@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 09 Jul 2008 00:53:27 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 09 Jul 2008 05:54:28 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 090543 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 840 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER PASCH WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 9 03:42:28 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m698gSn8015703 for ; Wed, 9 Jul 2008 03:42:28 -0500 Message-Id: <200807090842.m698gSn8015703@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 09 Jul 2008 03:41:28 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 09 Jul 2008 08:42:28 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 090830 TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 500 AM AST WED JUL 09 2008 ..CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE BERTHA CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD... AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.5 WEST OR ABOUT 560 MILES... 905 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 790 MILES...1275 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...23.5 N...56.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER PASCH This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 9 03:42:28 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m698gSn8015706 for ; Wed, 9 Jul 2008 03:42:28 -0500 Message-Id: <200807090842.m698gSn8015706@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 09 Jul 2008 03:41:28 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 09 Jul 2008 08:42:28 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT42 KNHC 090833 TCDAT2 HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 500 AM EDT WED JUL 09 2008 THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH BERTHA APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE CIRCULAR AND ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. A SLIGHT EXPANSION OF THE CIRRUS CANOPY OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION SUGGESTS THAT VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BE DECREASING. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH WATER VAPOR ANIMATIONS WHICH SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE NEAR 27N 68W MOVING WESTWARD AND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. DVORAK SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ONLY 55 TO 65 KT AND THEREFORE THE CURRENT WIND SPEED IS ADJUSTED TO 65 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH USES THE GFS UPPER-LEVEL WIND FORECAST DOES NOT SHOW A DECREASE IN SHEAR OR ANY STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS...BOTH OF WHICH HAVE SOME LIMITED SKILL IN INTENSITY PREDICTION...FORECAST A MODEST INCREASE IN STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. MY WIND SPEED FORECAST ONLY HINTS AT THE POSSIBILITY OF RE-INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER BERTHA WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE WARM WATERS FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS AND SINCE OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS DO NOT APPEAR INHIBITING...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE IT BECOME STRONGER AGAIN. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF SCATTER IN THE CENTER FIXES OVERNIGHT...MY ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS STILL NORTHWESTWARD OR 305/9. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH OF BERTHA IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN AS A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF OF THE U.S. EAST COAST IN 2-3 DAYS. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE THE MOTION OF THE HURRICANE TO SLOW FURTHER AND TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD AROUND THAT TIME. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE TROUGH WILL MISS BERTHA AND LEAVE IT IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS UNTIL NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WHEN A NEW AND STRONGER TROUGH APPROACHES THE EAST COAST. A VERY SLOW MOTION IS INDICATED AROUND DAYS 3-4 DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING AND BERTHA COULD ALSO MOVE ERRATICALLY AROUND THAT TIME. BY DAY 5 THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IN RESPONSE TO THE SECOND TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE VARIABLE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...TVCN. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO KNOW WHETHER BERTHA WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON BERMUDA. INTERESTS ON THAT ISLAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/0900Z 23.5N 56.5W 65 KT 12HR VT 09/1800Z 24.2N 57.8W 65 KT 24HR VT 10/0600Z 25.4N 59.2W 70 KT 36HR VT 10/1800Z 26.8N 60.2W 70 KT 48HR VT 11/0600Z 28.0N 61.0W 70 KT 72HR VT 12/0600Z 30.0N 61.5W 70 KT 96HR VT 13/0600Z 31.0N 61.5W 65 KT 120HR VT 14/0600Z 33.0N 61.0W 60 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 9 03:56:54 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m698usn8015791 for ; Wed, 9 Jul 2008 03:56:54 -0500 Message-Id: <200807090856.m698usn8015791@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 09 Jul 2008 03:55:54 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 09 Jul 2008 08:56:54 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 090853 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 453 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2008 FLZ008-012-014-015-GMZ750-770-091100- COASTAL WALTON-BAY-GULF-FRANKLIN- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...INWOOD...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...WHITE CITY...PORT ST. JOE... WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE 453 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2008 /353 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 6 AM CDT...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLE COASTAL WATERS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND RAPIDLY DISSIPATE. $$ BARR This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 9 04:29:20 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m699TKn8016328 for ; Wed, 9 Jul 2008 04:29:20 -0500 Message-Id: <200807090929.m699TKn8016328@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 09 Jul 2008 04:28:19 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Hazardous Weather Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 09 Jul 2008 09:29:20 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FLUS42 KTAE 090915 HWOTAE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 515 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161- GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-100915- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON- JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN- CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL- IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE- DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- 515 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2008 /415 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2008/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA... SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE FOCUS WILL BE ACROSS THE FLORIDA WESTERN BIG BEND...PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL CONTINUE BUT DECREASE EACH DAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP. $$ BLOCK This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 9 05:31:24 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m69AVOn8016814 for ; Wed, 9 Jul 2008 05:31:24 -0500 Message-Id: <200807091031.m69AVOn8016814@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 09 Jul 2008 05:30:24 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 09 Jul 2008 10:31:25 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 091029 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 629 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2008 FLZ008-012-014-015-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-091230- COASTAL WALTON-BAY-GULF-FRANKLIN- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...INWOOD...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...WHITE CITY...PORT ST. JOE... WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE 629 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2008 /529 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 8 AM CDT...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND RAPIDLY DISSIPATE. $$ BARRY This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 10 11:23:20 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6AGNKn8028669 for ; Thu, 10 Jul 2008 11:23:20 -0500 Message-Id: <200807101623.m6AGNKn8028669@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 10 Jul 2008 11:22:12 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] InterWARN Admin Message - 7/10/08 11:22 AM X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 10 Jul 2008 16:23:21 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) test This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 10 12:19:17 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6AHJHn8029028 for ; Thu, 10 Jul 2008 12:19:17 -0500 Message-Id: <200807101719.m6AHJHn8029028@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 10 Jul 2008 12:18:09 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 10 Jul 2008 17:19:18 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 101716 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 1216 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2008 ALZ052-053-055>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-MSZ075-076-078-079-102000- WASHINGTON-CLARKE-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA- COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN- INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY- PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHATOM...MILLRY...JACKSON... THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN... GREENVILLE...LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON... EAST BREWTON...ANDALUSIA...OPP...PRICHARD...SARALAND... BAY MINETTE...TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE... FOLEY...SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA... FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY... MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW... WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE... EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT...NEW AUGUSTA... LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE 1216 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2008 NOW... THROUGH 3 PM...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL SLOWLY SPREAD FURTHER INLAND. WIND GUSTS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL TYPICALLY BE 25 MPH OR LESS WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 10 12:21:21 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6AHLLn8029048 for ; Thu, 10 Jul 2008 12:21:21 -0500 Message-Id: <200807101721.m6AHLLn8029048@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 10 Jul 2008 12:20:13 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 10 Jul 2008 17:21:21 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 101718 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 118 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>011-101930- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS 1218 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2008 NOW... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS WALTON...HOLMES...WASHINGTON AND WESTERN JACKSON COUNTIES OF THE EASTERN PANHANDLE...AND ACROSS COFFEE...DALE... GENEVA...HENRY AND WESTERN HOUSTON COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. $$ DUVAL This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 10 12:26:16 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6AHQGn8029086 for ; Thu, 10 Jul 2008 12:26:16 -0500 Message-Id: <200807101726.m6AHQGn8029086@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 10 Jul 2008 12:25:08 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 10 Jul 2008 17:26:16 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 101718 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 485 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 10 13:38:40 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6AIcen8029501 for ; Thu, 10 Jul 2008 13:38:40 -0500 Message-Id: <200807101838.m6AIcen8029501@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 10 Jul 2008 13:37:32 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Special Weather Statement X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 10 Jul 2008 18:38:40 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WWUS84 KMOB 101836 SPSMOB SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 135 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2008 ALZ059-062-FLZ001-101915- ESCAMBIA-INLAND ESCAMBIA-UPPER BALDWIN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BAY MINETTE... 135 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2008 ..A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS BEING DETECTED OVER ESCAMBIA AND BALDWIN COUNTIES... AT 131 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM NEAR I65 AND AL 59...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND... I65 AND AL 287...CARNEY...DYAS...RABUN AND I65 AND CR 47 THROUGH 215 PM CDT. THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG COULD DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. $$ WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 10 16:00:05 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6AL05n8030200 for ; Thu, 10 Jul 2008 16:00:05 -0500 Message-Id: <200807102100.m6AL05n8030200@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 10 Jul 2008 15:58:56 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 10 Jul 2008 21:00:06 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 102044 TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 500 PM AST THU JUL 10 2008 ..BERTHA STILL A NORTHWESTWARD-MOVING CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE... IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXTENT TO WHICH BERTHA COULD IMPACT BERMUDA. INTERESTS ON THAT ISLAND SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BERTHA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.8 WEST OR ABOUT 425 MILES... 685 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...BERTHA WILL SLOWLY APPROACH BERMUDA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH... 140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BERTHA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES. LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF HAVE STARTED TO AFFECTED BERMUDA. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...27.2 N...60.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 10 16:00:06 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6AL06n8030203 for ; Thu, 10 Jul 2008 16:00:06 -0500 Message-Id: <200807102100.m6AL06n8030203@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 10 Jul 2008 15:58:56 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 10 Jul 2008 21:00:06 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT42 KNHC 102043 TCDAT2 HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 500 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2008 A RECENT TRMM OVERPASS AND GOES VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDING NOTED EARLIER HAS WRAPPED UP INTO AN OUTER EYEWALL WITH A DIAMETER OF ABOUT 75 N MI. THIS FEATURE SURROUNDS THE ORIGINAL INNER EYE WHICH IS ABOUT 10 N MI WIDE. BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS IN THE INNER EYEWALL...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 75 KT. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD IN THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND HAS INCREASED SINCE THIS MORNING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/9. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPLEX STEERING PATTERN...CONSISTING OF A BROAD MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF BERTHA THAT ARE MOVING EASTWARD...AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 28N69W THAT IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD. IN THE SHORT TERM...THIS PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE BERTHA TO TURN NORTHWARD AS SHOWN IN THE NEW FORECAST TRACK. DURING THE 36-72 HR PERIOD...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LIKELY TO BLOCK BERTHA'S NORTHWARD MOTION...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ERRATIC MOTION NEAR OR TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA. THEREAFTER...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS CURRENTLY AGREE THAT A SECOND TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BYPASS BERTHA...LEAVING THE STORM TRAPPED IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. IN A MAJOR SHIFT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...NONE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW BERTHA REACHING 40N IN 5 DAYS. BASED ON THIS...THE FORECAST TRACK WILL CALL FOR A SLOWER NORTHWARD MOTION THAN IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE... WITH THE TRACK SMOOTHING THROUGH SOME OF THE ERRATIC MOTION FORECASTS IN THE MODELS. THE NEW TRACK IS CLOSER TO BERMUDA THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND BERTHA COULD COME EVEN CLOSER TO BERMUDA IF THE JOGS TO THE LEFT IN THE UKMET AND CANADIAN MODELS VERIFY. AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS BUILDING OVER BERTHA...AND THE STORM STILL HAS A DAY OR TWO MORE OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THUS...EVEN THOUGH NONE OF THE FORECAST MODELS CALL FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...THE HURRICANE COULD RE-INTENSIFY AT THE END OF THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. BASED ON THIS...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING IN 24 HR. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT FROM UNDER THE ANTICYCLONE AND ENCOUNTER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS SHOULD OCCUR AS BERTHA REACHES COOLER WATERS AND RESULT IN A WEAKENING TREND. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/2100Z 27.2N 60.8W 75 KT 12HR VT 11/0600Z 28.0N 61.7W 75 KT 24HR VT 11/1800Z 29.0N 62.2W 80 KT 36HR VT 12/0600Z 29.8N 62.5W 80 KT 48HR VT 12/1800Z 30.5N 62.5W 75 KT 72HR VT 13/1800Z 31.5N 62.5W 70 KT 96HR VT 14/1800Z 33.0N 62.5W 60 KT 120HR VT 15/1800Z 36.0N 62.0W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 10 18:17:04 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6ANH4n8030968 for ; Thu, 10 Jul 2008 18:17:04 -0500 Message-Id: <200807102317.m6ANH4n8030968@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 10 Jul 2008 18:15:54 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 10 Jul 2008 23:17:04 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 102312 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 712 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007-009-011-GAZ121-123-142>144-155-110100- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-HOLMES-JACKSON- CLAY-CALHOUN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-SEMINOLE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...HUDSON...BONIFAY... MARIANNA...GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...FORT GAINES... ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY...DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY... COLQUITT...NEWTON...DONALSONVILLE 712 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2008 /612 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 8 PM CDT...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. THEY WILL AFFECT AREAS FROM ENTERPRISE TO FORT RUCKER AND OZARK DURING THIS TIME. $$ 18-WOOL This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 10 19:03:24 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6B03On8031204 for ; Thu, 10 Jul 2008 19:03:24 -0500 Message-Id: <200807110003.m6B03On8031204@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 10 Jul 2008 19:02:14 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 00:03:24 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 102353 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 425 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER KNABB This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 10 20:56:29 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6B1uTn8031833 for ; Thu, 10 Jul 2008 20:56:29 -0500 Message-Id: <200807110156.m6B1uTn8031833@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 10 Jul 2008 20:55:18 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 01:56:29 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 110153 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 953 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2008 FLZ008-012-014-GMZ750-770-110400- COASTAL WALTON-BAY-GULF- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...INWOOD...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...WHITE CITY...PORT ST. JOE... WEWAHITCHKA 953 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2008 /853 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 11 PM CDT...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...MAINLY BEYOND 20 MILES FROM THE COAST. $$ 18-WOOL This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 10 21:49:33 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6B2nXn8032122 for ; Thu, 10 Jul 2008 21:49:33 -0500 Message-Id: <200807110249.m6B2nXn8032122@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 10 Jul 2008 21:48:22 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 02:49:33 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 110247 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 947 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2008 ALZ051>058-060-110500- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- COVINGTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM... MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN... PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE... LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ANDALUSIA...OPP 947 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2008 NOW...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG AND NORTH OF A THOMASVILLE...CAMDEN...HIGHLAND HOME LINE WILL DRIFT EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT. INTENSITY OF THE STORMS HAS DIMINISHED A BIT AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINS. RADAR INDICATES UP TO AN INCH AN HOUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 10 21:51:20 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6B2pKn8032143 for ; Thu, 10 Jul 2008 21:51:20 -0500 Message-Id: <200807110251.m6B2pKn8032143@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 10 Jul 2008 21:50:09 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 02:51:20 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 110245 TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 PM AST THU JUL 10 2008 ..CATEGORY ONE BERTHA MOVING A LITTLE MORE SLOWLY... IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXTENT TO WHICH BERTHA COULD IMPACT BERMUDA. INTERESTS ON THAT ISLAND SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BERTHA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.2 WEST OR ABOUT 385 MILES... 620 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THIS TRACK...BERTHA WILL SLOWLY APPROACH BERMUDA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BERTHA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES. LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...27.7 N...61.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER KNABB This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 10 22:06:39 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6B36dn8032233 for ; Thu, 10 Jul 2008 22:06:39 -0500 Message-Id: <200807110306.m6B36dn8032233@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 10 Jul 2008 22:05:29 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 03:06:40 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT42 KNHC 110300 TCDAT2 HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2008 A SERIES OF MICROWAVE OVERPASSES THROUGHOUT THE DAY INDICATE THAT THE INNER EYEWALL HAS BEEN SLOWLY DETERIORATING...WHILE A NEW OUTER EYEWALL HAS BEEN TAKING SHAPE. THE MOST RECENT IMAGE...FROM SSMIS AT 2319Z...DEPICTS THE OUTER EYEWALL AS A COMPLETELY CLOSED RING AT A RADIUS OF ABOUT 60 N MI...WITH BARELY HALF OF THE INNER EYEWALL REMAINING. TRENDS IN GEOSTATIONARY INFRARED IMAGERY REFLECT THE EVOLVING STRUCTURE...AS THE EYE HAS JUST ABOUT DISAPPEARED WHILE CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN COOLING ABOVE THE OUTER RING SEEN IN THE MICROWAVE. IN ADDITION...A QUIKSCAT PASS BACK AT 23Z DEPICTED A SECONDARY WIND MAXIMUM IN THE OUTER EYEWALL. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 00Z WERE ALL 75 KT...BUT IT IS HARD TO ESTIMATE EVEN VERY SHORT-TERM INTENSITY CHANGES GIVEN THE ONGOING STRUCTURAL CHANGES...EVEN THOUGH THE OCEAN AND ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENTS ARE NOT PROHIBITIVE FOR STRENGTHENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BERTHA WILL WEAKEN SOME UPON THE FINAL DEMISE OF THE INNER EYEWALL...AND IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE NEW OUTER EYEWALL WILL EVENTUALLY CONTRACT AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME STRENGTHENING...BUT I AM NOT GOING TO TRY TO EXPLICITLY FORECAST SUCH CHANGES. THE MOST PRUDENT APPROACH...WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE...IS TO KEEP THE INTENSITY LEVEL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING AS THE WIND SHEAR POTENTIALLY INCREASES AND BERTHA PASSES OVER GRADUALLY COOLER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST HAS JUST A SLIGHTLY LOWER PEAK INTENSITY THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. BERTHA APPEARS TO BE GRADUALLY SLOWING DOWN...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 315/7. THE FORECAST AND ITS SUPPORTING REASONING HAVE NOT REALLY CHANGED FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS OR SO...INCLUDING A VERY SLOW FORWARD MOTION IN A COUPLE OF DAYS NEAR BERMUDA. BEYOND THAT TIME...ESSENTIALLY ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND FORECAST A FASTER MOTION AT 4-5 DAYS...THIS TIME FORECASTING BERTHA TO BE PULLED NORTHWARD A LITTLE SOONER BY A TROUGH ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST BY THEN...WITH SLIGHTLY LESS RIDGING TO THE NORTH TO BLOCK BERTHA'S POLEWARD PROGRESS. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST DOES NOT COMPLETELY BUY INTO THIS MUCH OF A SHIFT IN THE MODELS...BUT IT IS ADJUSTED EASTWARD AND MOST OF THE WAY TOWARD THE CONSENSUS. SINCE THIS NEW TRACK STILL DOES NOT FORECAST BERTHA TO BE GOING ANY FASTER THAN ABOUT 5-7 KT AT THE END OF THE FIVE-DAY PERIOD...THIS ADJUSTMENT DOES NOT REPRESENT A HUGE CHANGE IN WHERE WE EXPECT BERTHA TO BE IN FIVE DAYS. THE LATEST WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT ACCOMPANYING THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE INDICATES THAT...GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECASTS OF BERTHA'S TRACK...INTENSITY...AND SIZE...THERE ROUGHLY A 50% CHANCE THAT WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WILL AFFECT BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0300Z 27.7N 61.2W 75 KT 12HR VT 11/1200Z 28.4N 61.9W 75 KT 24HR VT 12/0000Z 29.5N 62.6W 75 KT 36HR VT 12/1200Z 30.4N 62.6W 75 KT 48HR VT 13/0000Z 31.1N 62.3W 70 KT 72HR VT 14/0000Z 32.5N 61.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 15/0000Z 34.5N 60.5W 60 KT 120HR VT 16/0000Z 37.0N 59.0W 55 KT $$ FORECASTER KNABB WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 10 22:31:15 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6B3VFn8032369 for ; Thu, 10 Jul 2008 22:31:15 -0500 Message-Id: <200807110331.m6B3VFn8032369@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 10 Jul 2008 22:30:04 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 03:31:15 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 110320 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1120 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2008 ALZ065>067-GAZ120>131-142>148-110500- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-QUITMAN-CLAY-RANDOLPH-CALHOUN-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY- LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL- COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES... CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY... DAWSON...ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTER...ASHBURN... TIFTON...FITZGERALD...OCILLA...DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY... COLQUITT...NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM...MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS... NASHVILLE 1120 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2008 /1020 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 100 AM EDT (MIDNIGHT CDT)...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM ELBA ALABAMA TO NASHVILLE GEORGIA. FREQUENT LIGHTNING... WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. $$ JAMSKI This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 10 22:31:15 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6B3VFn8032372 for ; Thu, 10 Jul 2008 22:31:15 -0500 Message-Id: <200807110331.m6B3VFn8032372@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 10 Jul 2008 22:30:04 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 03:31:15 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 110320 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1120 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2008 FLZ008-012-014-GMZ750-770-110500- COASTAL WALTON-BAY-GULF- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...INWOOD...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...WHITE CITY...PORT ST. JOE... WEWAHITCHKA 1120 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2008 /1020 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2008/ NOW... THROUGH MIDNIGHT CDT...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...MAINLY BEYOND 20 MILES FROM THE COAST. $$ JAMSKI This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 11 00:11:54 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6B5Bsn8000416 for ; Fri, 11 Jul 2008 00:11:54 -0500 Message-Id: <200807110511.m6B5Bsn8000416@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 00:10:43 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 05:11:55 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 110509 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 109 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2008 ALZ065>069-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-110715- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-QUITMAN-CLAY-RANDOLPH-CALHOUN- TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-EARLY- MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-DECATUR- GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES...CUTHBERT... SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY...DAWSON... ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTER...ASHBURN...TIFTON... FITZGERALD...OCILLA...DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY...COLQUITT... NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM...MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS... NASHVILLE...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO...THOMASVILLE... QUITMAN...VALDOSTA...LAKELAND 109 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2008 /1209 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 300 AM EDT (200 AM CDT)...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA... SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM GENEVA ALABAMA TO VALDOSTA GEORGIA. FREQUENT LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER BEN HILL...TURNER...IRWIN...TIFT...WORTH AND BERRIEN COUNTIES. $$ JAMSKI This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 11 00:24:06 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6B5O6n8000498 for ; Fri, 11 Jul 2008 00:24:06 -0500 Message-Id: <200807110524.m6B5O6n8000498@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 00:22:54 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 05:24:06 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 110514 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 385 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 11 02:02:53 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6B72rn8001203 for ; Fri, 11 Jul 2008 02:02:53 -0500 Message-Id: <200807110702.m6B72rn8001203@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 02:01:41 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 07:02:53 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 110659 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 259 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007-009-011-110900- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-HOLMES-JACKSON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...HUDSON...BONIFAY... MARIANNA...GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS 159 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2008 NOW... THROUGH 400 AM CDT...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA PANHANDLE. $$ JAMSKI This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 11 02:02:53 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6B72rn8001206 for ; Fri, 11 Jul 2008 02:02:53 -0500 Message-Id: <200807110702.m6B72rn8001206@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 02:01:41 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 07:02:53 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 110659 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 259 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2008 FLZ008-012-014-GMZ750-770-110900- COASTAL WALTON-BAY-GULF- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...INWOOD...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...WHITE CITY...PORT ST. JOE... WEWAHITCHKA 259 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2008 /159 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 400 AM CDT...A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...MAINLY BEYOND 20 NAUTICAL MILES FROM THE COAST. $$ JAMSKI This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 11 03:42:34 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6B8gYn8002023 for ; Fri, 11 Jul 2008 03:42:34 -0500 Message-Id: <200807110842.m6B8gYn8002023@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 03:41:22 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 08:42:34 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 110831 TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 500 AM AST FRI JUL 11 2008 ..BERTHA CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... INTERESTS ON BERMUDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BERTHA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE ISSUED FOR THE ISLAND LATER TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.7 WEST OR ABOUT 350 MILES... 565 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST AND A SLOWER FORWARD MOTION ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...BERTHA WILL SLOWLY APPROACH BERMUDA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BERTHA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES. LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...28.0 N...61.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 11 03:57:53 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6B8vrn8002140 for ; Fri, 11 Jul 2008 03:57:53 -0500 Message-Id: <200807110857.m6B8vrn8002140@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 03:56:40 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 08:57:53 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT42 KNHC 110849 TCDAT2 HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 500 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2008 THE LATEST SATELLITE MICROWAVE DATA AT 02Z INDICATED THAT BERTHA WAS CONTINUING ITS EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE...WITH A FRAGMENT OF THE OLD INNER EYEWALL REMAINING INSIDE THE 60 N MI WIDE OUTER EYEWALL. INFRARED IMAGERY SINCE THEN SUGGESTS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF THE HURRICANE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 77 KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 75 KT. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS NOW FAIR TO GOOD IN ALL DIRECTIONS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 315/6. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT BERTHA WILL TURN NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 36 HR AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE MOVES EASTWARD. SERIOUS GUIDANCE DIVERGENCE OCCURS BEYOND THAT TIME. THE GFS IS NOW CALLING FOR A SLOW EASTWARD MOTION FROM 48-120 HR...THE UKMET CALLING FOR A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION...AND THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS TRAPPING BERTHA IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND STALLING IT NEAR 31N61W. THE OTHER DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE FORECAST BERTHA TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO WEAK RIDGING TO THE EAST AND A SERIES OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. SINCE THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY...THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WILL BE TO CALL FOR A SLOWER NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AFTER 48 HR. THE NEW TRACK LIES ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE. BERTHA IS CURRENTLY UNDER A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...WITH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECASTING THIS TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST 36 HR. BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL KEEP BERTHA AT 75 KT DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER... THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF SOME STRENGTHENING AT THE END OF THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. STARTING IN 48-72 HR...IT IS EXPECTED THAT BERTHA WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT FROM UNDER THE ANTICYCLONE AND ENCOUNTER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS...COMBINED WITH DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...SHOULD CAUSE BERTHA TO WEAKEN. OCEAN ANALYSES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEANOGRAPHIC AND MARINE LABORATORY SHOW THAT THE WARM WATER UNDER BERTHA IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW...AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM COULD UPWELL COLDER WATER UNDERNEATH IT. THIS COULD PARTICULARLY BE A FACTOR IF BERTHA STALLS FOR 24 HR OR MORE. THE LATEST WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES INDICATE THAT...GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECASTS OF BERTHA'S TRACK...INTENSITY...AND SIZE...THERE REMAINS ROUGHLY A 50% CHANCE THAT WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WILL AFFECT BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE ISSUED FOR THE ISLAND LATER TODAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0900Z 28.0N 61.7W 75 KT 12HR VT 11/1800Z 28.8N 62.3W 75 KT 24HR VT 12/0600Z 29.7N 62.6W 75 KT 36HR VT 12/1800Z 30.4N 62.5W 75 KT 48HR VT 13/0600Z 31.3N 62.0W 70 KT 72HR VT 14/0600Z 32.5N 61.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 15/0600Z 34.0N 60.5W 60 KT 120HR VT 16/0600Z 36.0N 59.0W 55 KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 11 04:40:44 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6B9ein8002865 for ; Fri, 11 Jul 2008 04:40:44 -0500 Message-Id: <200807110940.m6B9ein8002865@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 04:39:31 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Hazardous Weather Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 09:40:45 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FLUS42 KTAE 110936 HWOTAE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 536 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161- GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-120945- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON- JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN- CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL- IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE- DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- 536 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2008 /436 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2008/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA... SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA LATER TODAY KICKING OFF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT CONTINUING INTO THE NIGHTTIME. THE FOCUS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. LATE NIGHT FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND AIDED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GENERATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE WILL LIKELY BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY YIELDING A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION. NORMAL SUMMER TIME LEVELS ARE LIKELY DURING MOST OF THE WORKWEEK. SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP. $$ BLOCK This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 11 05:01:02 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6BA12n8003219 for ; Fri, 11 Jul 2008 05:01:02 -0500 Message-Id: <200807111001.m6BA12n8003219@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 04:59:49 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Hazardous Weather Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 10:01:02 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FLUS44 KMOB 110958 HWOMOB HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 500 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2008 ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078- 079-121200- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY- COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY- GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- 500 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2008 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...THE COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP STARTING ALONG THE COAST AND SPREADING INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE LIMITS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND PRODUCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH. DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN...WITH ALL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 11 06:30:33 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6BBUXn8003923 for ; Fri, 11 Jul 2008 06:30:33 -0500 Message-Id: <200807111130.m6BBUXn8003923@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 06:29:20 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 11:30:33 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 111123 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 11 08:27:44 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6BDRin8004833 for ; Fri, 11 Jul 2008 08:27:44 -0500 Message-Id: <200807111327.m6BDRin8004833@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 08:26:30 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 13:27:44 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 111325 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 925 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>017-026-027-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-111530- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON- LIBERTY-WAKULLA- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...SWEETWATER... SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS 925 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2008 /825 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2008/ NOW... THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS... A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN SCATTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT GULF COASTAL WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 11 09:49:02 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6BEn2n8005367 for ; Fri, 11 Jul 2008 09:49:02 -0500 Message-Id: <200807111449.m6BEn2n8005367@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 09:47:48 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 14:49:02 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 111435 TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 AM AST FRI JUL 11 2008 ..BERTHA ABOUT A WEEK OLD...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SCHEDULED FOR LATER TODAY... AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.0 WEST OR ABOUT 310 MILES... 500 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... BERTHA'S FRINGES WILL BE NEARING BERMUDA ON SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BERTHA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRPLANE IS SCHEDULED TO CHECK BERTHA LATER TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES. LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...28.5 N...62.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 11 09:49:02 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6BEn2n8005370 for ; Fri, 11 Jul 2008 09:49:02 -0500 Message-Id: <200807111449.m6BEn2n8005370@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 09:47:48 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 14:49:02 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT42 KNHC 111437 TCDAT2 HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 34 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2008 MICROWAVE DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW A SMALL FRAGMENT OF THE INNER EYEWALL WITHIN A BETTER DEFINED AND LARGER RING OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER EYEWALL. CONVENTIONAL VIS/IR IMAGES SHOW THAT BERTHA'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE WITH GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. DVORAK T-NUMBERS STILL SUGGEST AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS. THE FIRST RECONNAISSANCE MISSION INTO BERTHA WILL BE LATER TODAY...SO I WILL BE MORE CONFIDENT WITH THE INITIAL INTENSITY WHEN THE PLANE GETS THERE. THE CURRENT CLOUD PATTERN CONFIGURATION...ANNULAR TYPE...AND LOW SHEAR SUGGEST THAT THE INTENSITY WILL NOT CHANGE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREFORE...BERTHA IS KEPT AT 75 KNOTS UNTIL SHEAR INCREASES AND MOVES OVER A COOLER OCEAN. THEN...A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED. ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT THE OUTER EYEWALL COULD SHRINK RESULTING IN INTENSIFICATION... I AM NOT CONSIDERING IT IN THIS FORECAST BECAUSE I HAVE NO IDEA WHEN OR IF THIS CYCLE WILL OCCUR. BERTHA IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY...AS ANTICIPATED...TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 KNOTS IN BETWEEN A SMALL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP BERTHA WITHIN VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS FOR THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS. BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BE VERY SLOW AND BERTHA IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE THAN 300 N MI IN THREE DAYS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH LATEST GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS THE CORE OF BERTHA MOVING WELL EAST OF BERMUDA BUT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND FARTHER OUT AND COULD REACH THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS. THEREFORE...GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECASTS OF BERTHA'S...TRACK... INTENSITY...AND SIZE...THE WEATHER SERVICE OF BERMUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/1500Z 28.5N 62.0W 75 KT 12HR VT 12/0000Z 29.2N 62.5W 75 KT 24HR VT 12/1200Z 30.2N 62.6W 75 KT 36HR VT 13/0000Z 30.8N 62.2W 75 KT 48HR VT 13/1200Z 31.5N 61.5W 70 KT 72HR VT 14/1200Z 32.5N 60.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 15/1200Z 34.5N 59.5W 60 KT 120HR VT 16/1200Z 37.0N 58.5W 55 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 11 10:01:25 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6BF1Pn8005446 for ; Fri, 11 Jul 2008 10:01:25 -0500 Message-Id: <200807111501.m6BF1Pn8005446@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 10:00:11 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Local Storm Report X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 15:01:26 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) NWUS54 KMOB 111459 LSRMOB PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 959 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2008 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0952 AM WATER SPOUT 1 S MARY ESTHER 30.41N 86.64W 07/11/2008 OKALOOSA FL OTHER FEDERAL WATER SPOUT IN SANTA ROSA SOUND JUST SOUTH OF MARY ESTHER. && $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 11 10:16:45 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6BFGjn8005528 for ; Fri, 11 Jul 2008 10:16:45 -0500 Message-Id: <200807111516.m6BFGjn8005528@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 10:15:31 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 15:16:45 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 111513 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 1013 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2008 ALZ056-059>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-111800- CONECUH-ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN- LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA- INLAND SANTA ROSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA- COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY- COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EVERGREEN...ATMORE...BREWTON... EAST BREWTON...ANDALUSIA...OPP...PRICHARD...SARALAND... BAY MINETTE...TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE... FOLEY...SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA... FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY... MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW... WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE... EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO 1013 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2008 NOW... THROUGH 1 PM...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE COASTAL WATERS WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH WILL ACCOMPANY THE THUNDERSTORMS. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 11 10:23:41 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6BFNfn8005569 for ; Fri, 11 Jul 2008 10:23:41 -0500 Message-Id: <200807111523.m6BFNfn8005569@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 10:22:26 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 15:23:41 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 111520 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1120 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>128-142>146-155>158- GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-111730- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON- JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN- CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-EARLY-MILLER- BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-SEMINOLE-DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES... CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY... DAWSON...ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTER...ASHBURN... DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY...COLQUITT...NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM... MOULTRIE...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO...THOMASVILLE 1120 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2008 /1020 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2008/ NOW... INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS...OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. THE GREATEST NUMBER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE PANHANDLE FROM NORTH OF APALACHICOLA TO BRISTOL AND BLOUNTSTOWN AND WEST TO CHIPLEY AND DESTIN. OVER GEORGIA ALBANY AND CAMILLA CAN EXPECT SOME ACTIVITY BY NOON. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 11 12:26:53 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6BHQrn8006208 for ; Fri, 11 Jul 2008 12:26:53 -0500 Message-Id: <200807111726.m6BHQrn8006208@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 12:25:38 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 17:26:53 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 111724 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 124 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161- GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-111930- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON- JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN- CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL- IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE- DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES... CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY... DAWSON...ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTER...ASHBURN... TIFTON...FITZGERALD...OCILLA...DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY... COLQUITT...NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM...MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS... NASHVILLE...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO...THOMASVILLE... QUITMAN...VALDOSTA...LAKELAND 124 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2008 /1224 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2008/ NOW...THROUGH 300 PM EDT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHICH IS CURRENTLY MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COUNTIES WEST OF TALLAHASSEE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA. ALL STORMS WILL FOLLOW A GRADUAL EASTWARD TRACK AND A FEW MAY PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 MPH. $$ GOREE/BLOEMER This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 11 12:52:19 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6BHqJn8006351 for ; Fri, 11 Jul 2008 12:52:19 -0500 Message-Id: <200807111752.m6BHqJn8006351@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 12:51:04 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 17:52:20 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 111747 TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE BERTHA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 34A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 200 PM AST FRI JUL 11 2008 ..AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE REACHES BERTHA... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.0 WEST OR ABOUT 300 MILES...480 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... BERTHA'S FRINGES WILL BE NEARING BERMUDA ON SATURDAY. PRELIMINARY DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS COULD BE A LITTLE BIT STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. HOWEVER...UNTIL THIS DATA IS CONFIRMED...THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BERTHA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 977 MB...28.85 INCHES. LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...28.7 N...62.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 11 12:52:20 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6BHqJn8006354 for ; Fri, 11 Jul 2008 12:52:19 -0500 Message-Id: <200807111752.m6BHqJn8006354@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 12:51:04 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 17:52:20 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 111748 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 3XX MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER AVILA WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 11 13:07:38 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6BI7cn8006471 for ; Fri, 11 Jul 2008 13:07:38 -0500 Message-Id: <200807111807.m6BI7cn8006471@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 13:06:23 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 18:07:38 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 111754 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2008 ..CORRECTION TO MILES FROM BERMUDA FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER AVILA WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 11 13:22:17 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6BIMHn8006565 for ; Fri, 11 Jul 2008 13:22:17 -0500 Message-Id: <200807111822.m6BIMHn8006565@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 13:21:02 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Special Weather Statement X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 18:22:17 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WWUS84 KMOB 111820 SPSMOB SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 120 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2008 ALZ060-FLZ005-111900- COVINGTON-INLAND OKALOOSA- 120 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2008 ..A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS BEING DETECTED OVER SOUTHERN COVINGTON AND NORTHERN OKALOOSA COUNTIES... AT 118 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF RED OAK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND... WATKINS BRIDGE...LAUREL HILL...SVEA...LOCKHART AND STEDMAN THROUGH 200 PM CDT. THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG COULD DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. $$ WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 11 13:24:58 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6BIOwn8006580 for ; Fri, 11 Jul 2008 13:24:58 -0500 Message-Id: <200807111824.m6BIOwn8006580@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 13:23:43 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 18:24:59 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 111822 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 122 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2008 ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078- 079-112130- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY- COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY- GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM... MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN... PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE... LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON... ANDALUSIA...OPP...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE... TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY... SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA... FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY... MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW... WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE... EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT... NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE 122 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2008 NOW... THROUGH 430 PM...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 25 MPH. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 11 13:54:31 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6BIsVn8006758 for ; Fri, 11 Jul 2008 13:54:31 -0500 Message-Id: <200807111854.m6BIsVn8006758@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 13:53:15 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 18:54:31 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 111852 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 252 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161- GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-112100- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON- JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN- CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL- IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE- DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES... CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY... DAWSON...ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTER...ASHBURN... TIFTON...FITZGERALD...OCILLA...DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY... COLQUITT...NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM...MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS... NASHVILLE...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO...THOMASVILLE... QUITMAN...VALDOSTA...LAKELAND 252 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2008 /152 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2008/ NOW...THROUGH 500 PM EDT...WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AROUND THE REGION WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SEVERAL OF THESE STORMS HAVE ALREADY PRODUCED FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH. AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES THE MORE SIGNIFICANT STORMS WILL BE INLAND WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS. $$ GOREE/BLOEMER This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 11 14:51:40 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6BJpen8007064 for ; Fri, 11 Jul 2008 14:51:40 -0500 Message-Id: <200807111951.m6BJpen8007064@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 14:50:24 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 19:51:40 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 111949 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 349 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161- GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-112200- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON- JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN- CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL- IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE- DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES... CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY... DAWSON...ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTER...ASHBURN... TIFTON...FITZGERALD...OCILLA...DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY... COLQUITT...NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM...MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS... NASHVILLE...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO...THOMASVILLE... QUITMAN...VALDOSTA...LAKELAND 349 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2008 /249 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 6 PM EDT (5 PM CDT)...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVEL SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...AND SOME WILL CONTAIN FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 TO 40 MPH...AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. BOATERS IN NEAR SHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE CHOPPY SEAS IN AND AROUND THE STORMS. $$ RUBIO This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 11 15:31:18 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6BKVIn8007282 for ; Fri, 11 Jul 2008 15:31:18 -0500 Message-Id: <200807112031.m6BKVIn8007282@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 15:30:02 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Special Weather Statement X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 20:31:18 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WWUS84 KMOB 112029 SPSMOB SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 328 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2008 FLZ003-004-112100- INLAND SANTA ROSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA- 328 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2008 ..A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS BEING DETECTED OVER SANTA ROSA COUNTY... AT 327 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM NEAR JAY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 17 MPH. THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND... BERRYDALE THROUGH 400 PM CDT. THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG COULD DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. $$ WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 11 15:55:37 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6BKtbn8007409 for ; Fri, 11 Jul 2008 15:55:37 -0500 Message-Id: <200807112055.m6BKtbn8007409@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 15:54:21 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 20:55:38 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 112040 TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 500 PM AST FRI JUL 11 2008 ..LARGE EYE OF BERTHA LEISURELY MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.2 WEST OR ABOUT 270 MILES...435 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL EAST OF BERMUDA BUT ANY DEV ****ERROR: INCOMPLETE DATA SC SC SC SC B1 B2 B2 B2 OV OV POP 12HR 10 10 10 10 50 QPF 12HR 0 0 0 0 0.16 RAIN SHWRS C C C C TSTMS C C C C OBVIS PF PF HEAT INDEX 80 82 86 85 81 83 83 MAX HEAT 84 86 86 84 85 DATE 07/14 TUE 07/15/08 WED 07/16/08 THU 07/17/08 FRI 07/18/08 EDT 6HRLY 14 20 02 08 14 20 02 08 14 20 02 08 14 20 02 08 14 20 UTC 6HRLY 18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 MAX/MIN 82 63 86 62 88 66 90 68 89 TEMP 79 75 66 66 86 77 66 66 88 80 70 70 90 82 72 71 89 82 DEWPT 64 62 58 58 55 57 59 60 59 61 63 64 63 65 65 66 65 66 PWIND DIR NW N N W W W W SW SW WIND CHAR LT LT LT LT LT LT LT LT LT AVG CLOUDS OV B2 B1 SC FW FW CL CL FW FW CL FW FW FW FW FW SC FW POP 12HR 50 30 10 10 10 10 10 10 20 RAIN SHWRS C C C C S TSTMS C C S $$ NJZ003-004-120915- BERGEN-EASTERN PASSAIC- 406 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2008 DATE 07/11/08 SAT 07/12/08 SUN 07/13/08 MON EDT 3HRLY 17 20 23 02 05 08 11 14 17 20 23 02 05 08 11 14 17 20 23 02 05 08 UTC 3HRLY 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 MIN/MAX 61 65 68 84 87 89 62 65 67 86 65 68 69 TEMP 82 78 72 69 66 72 81 85 84 78 73 70 67 71 78 82 82 77 73 70 68 71 DEWPT 56 58 61 62 61 64 64 63 63 64 65 64 64 65 65 64 65 66 67 66 66 66 RH 41 50 68 78 84 76 56 48 49 62 76 81 90 81 64 55 56 69 81 87 93 84 WIND DIR SW SW S S SE SW SW SW S S S S S S S S S S S S SW W WIND SPD 5 3 1 1 1 1 3 6 10 8 4 3 2 3 8 10 10 6 3 2 3 4 WIND GUST 16 20 17 CLOUDS SC FW FW FW FW FW FW FW FW FW FW FW SC SC SC SC B1 B2 B2 OV OV OV POP 12HR 10 10 10 10 50 QPF 12HR 0 0 0 0 0.16 RAIN SHWRS C C C C TSTMS C C C C OBVIS PF PF HEAT INDEX 83 86 85 83 83 MAX HEAT 84 87 87 84 85 DATE 07/14 TUE 07/15/08 WED 07/16/08 THU 07/17/08 FRI 07/18/08 EDT 6HRLY 14 20 02 08 14 20 02 08 14 20 02 08 14 20 02 08 14 20 UTC 6HRLY 18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 MAX/MIN 81 63 85 63 88 67 90 68 88 TEMP 79 75 66 66 85 77 67 67 88 80 70 70 90 82 72 71 88 81 DEWPT 64 62 58 58 56 58 59 60 60 62 63 64 64 65 65 66 65 66 PWIND DIR NW N N W W W W SW SW WIND CHAR LT LT LT LT LT LT LT LT LT AVG CLOUDS OV B2 B1 SC FW FW CL CL FW FW CL FW FW FW FW FW SC SC POP 12HR 50 30 10 10 10 10 10 10 20 RAIN SHWRS C C C C S TSTMS C C S $$ NJZ002-120915- WESTERN PASSAIC- 406 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2008 DATE 07/11/08 SAT 07/12/08 SUN 07/13/08 MON EDT 3HRLY 17 20 23 02 05 08 11 14 17 20 23 02 05 08 11 14 17 20 23 02 05 08 UTC 3HRLY 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 MIN/MAX 61 83 85 87 62 86 63 65 66 TEMP 79 75 67 64 62 67 79 83 83 76 69 66 63 67 77 80 80 75 71 66 65 67 DEWPT 57 59 60 60 59 61 63 62 62 63 63 61 60 62 63 63 63 64 64 63 63 63 RH 47 58 78 87 90 81 58 49 49 64 81 84 90 84 62 56 56 69 79 90 93 87 WIND DIR SW SW S SE NE NW SW SW S S S S S S S S S S S S SW NW WIND SPD 3 1 0 0 0 0 3 5 6 4 3 2 2 2 6 9 8 3 1 1 2 4 CLOUDS SC SC SC FW FW FW FW SC FW FW FW FW SC SC SC SC B1 B2 B2 OV OV OV POP 12HR 10 10 10 10 50 QPF 12HR 0 0 0 0 0.19 RAIN SHWRS C C C C TSTMS C C C C OBVIS PF PF HEAT INDEX 80 84 84 81 80 MAX HEAT 82 85 86 83 83 DATE 07/14 TUE 07/15/08 WED 07/16/08 THU 07/17/08 FRI 07/18/08 EDT 6HRLY 14 20 02 08 14 20 02 08 14 20 02 08 14 20 02 08 14 20 UTC 6HRLY 18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 MAX/MIN 78 58 84 58 86 62 88 63 86 TEMP 75 71 61 62 84 74 62 62 86 77 66 66 88 79 67 66 86 78 DEWPT 61 60 55 56 54 56 56 58 58 60 60 62 62 64 63 64 64 65 PWIND DIR NW N NW W W W W SW SW WIND CHAR LT LT LT LT LT LT LT LT LT AVG CLOUDS OV B1 B1 SC FW FW CL CL FW FW CL FW FW FW FW FW SC SC POP 12HR 50 30 10 10 10 10 10 10 20 RAIN SHWRS C C C C S TSTMS C C S $$ NYZ067-068-120915- ORANGE-PUTNAM- 406 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2008 DATE 07/11/08 SAT 07/12/08 SUN 07/13/08 MON EDT 3HRLY 17 20 23 02 05 08 11 14 17 20 23 02 05 08 11 14 17 20 23 02 05 08 UTC 3HRLY 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 MIN/MAX 58 60 62 82 86 89 60 62 65 82 86 88 61 65 67 TEMP 80 75 67 63 61 67 78 83 84 77 70 66 64 68 77 81 81 76 71 67 65 68 DEWPT 58 60 61 60 59 62 63 63 63 64 63 61 60 62 63 64 64 66 65 63 63 63 RH 47 60 81 90 93 84 60 51 49 64 78 84 87 81 62 56 56 71 81 87 93 84 WIND DIR SW SW S S S SW SW SW S S S S S S S S S S S SW SW W WIND SPD 2 1 1 1 1 1 4 6 8 5 4 3 2 4 9 10 9 4 3 2 3 4 WIND GUST 16 18 20 CLOUDS SC SC SC FW FW FW FW SC FW FW FW FW SC SC SC SC B1 B2 B2 OV OV OV POP 12HR 10 10 10 10 50 QPF 12HR 0 0 0 0 0.17-0.37 RAIN SHWRS C C C C TSTMS C C C C OBVIS PF PF HEAT INDEX 80 84 85 83 82 MAX HEAT 84 87 87 85 85 DATE 07/14 TUE 07/15/08 WED 07/16/08 THU 07/17/08 FRI 07/18/08 EDT 6HRLY 14 20 02 08 14 20 02 08 14 20 02 08 14 20 02 08 14 20 UTC 6HRLY 18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 MAX/MIN 78 59 84 58 86 62 88 64 86 TEMP 76 71 62 63 84 75 62 62 86 77 66 66 88 79 68 67 86 78 DEWPT 61 60 56 56 55 57 56 58 59 61 61 62 63 65 63 64 65 66 PWIND DIR NW N NW N W W W S SW WIND CHAR LT LT LT LT LT LT LT LT LT AVG CLOUDS OV B2 B1 SC FW FW CL CL FW FW CL FW FW FW FW FW SC SC POP 12HR 50 30 10 10 10 10 10 10 20 RAIN SHWRS C C C C S TSTMS C C S $$ NYZ069-070-120915- ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER- 406 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2008 DATE 07/11/08 SAT 07/12/08 SUN 07/13/08 MON EDT 3HRLY 17 20 23 02 05 08 11 14 17 20 23 02 05 08 11 14 17 20 23 02 05 08 UTC 3HRLY 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 MIN/MAX 59 61 64 82 84 87 61 63 66 82 85 86 64 67 68 TEMP 81 74 67 64 62 69 78 83 82 75 70 66 65 70 77 80 80 75 72 68 67 70 DEWPT 58 60 60 60 60 62 63 64 64 64 64 62 61 63 64 64 65 66 66 65 65 65 RH 46 62 78 87 93 78 60 53 55 69 81 87 87 78 64 58 60 74 81 90 93 84 WIND DIR S S S S SE NW SW SW S S S S S S S S S S S SW W W WIND SPD 4 2 1 1 0 1 3 6 8 6 3 2 2 3 8 9 9 5 3 2 3 4 WIND GUST 17 CLOUDS SC SC SC FW FW FW FW SC FW FW FW FW SC SC SC SC B1 B2 B2 B2 OV OV POP 12HR 10 10 10 10 50 QPF 12HR 0 0 0 0 0.13-0.19 RAIN SHWRS C C C C TSTMS C C C C OBVIS PF PF HEAT INDEX 81 84 83 82 81 MAX HEAT 84 85 86 84 84 DATE 07/14 TUE 07/15/08 WED 07/16/08 THU 07/17/08 FRI 07/18/08 EDT 6HRLY 14 20 02 08 14 20 02 08 14 20 02 08 14 20 02 08 14 20 UTC 6HRLY 18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 MAX/MIN 80 62 84 61 86 64 88 66 87 TEMP 77 73 65 65 84 76 65 65 86 78 68 68 88 80 70 69 87 80 DEWPT 63 61 57 57 55 57 58 59 60 62 62 63 64 65 64 65 66 66 PWIND DIR NW N NW N W W W S SW WIND CHAR LT LT LT LT LT LT LT LT LT AVG CLOUDS OV B2 B1 SC FW FW CL CL FW FW CL FW FW FW FW FW SC SC POP 12HR 50 30 10 10 10 10 10 10 20 RAIN SHWRS C C C C S TSTMS C C S $$ NYZ071-120915- SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER- 406 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2008 DATE 07/11/08 SAT 07/12/08 SUN 07/13/08 MON EDT 3HRLY 17 20 23 02 05 08 11 14 17 20 23 02 05 08 11 14 17 20 23 02 05 08 UTC 3HRLY 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 MIN/MAX 63 66 68 84 85 88 64 66 68 83 84 86 68 TEMP 81 76 72 69 67 72 79 84 83 77 73 69 68 72 78 80 80 75 72 70 69 72 DEWPT 56 59 61 61 61 63 63 64 64 64 65 64 64 65 64 65 66 66 67 67 67 67 RH 42 56 68 76 81 73 58 51 53 64 76 84 87 79 62 60 62 74 84 90 93 84 WIND DIR S S S S S W SW S S S S S S S S S S S S SW W W WIND SPD 5 3 2 2 1 1 3 8 10 8 4 2 3 3 8 10 11 6 4 3 4 5 WIND GUST 17 CLOUDS SC FW FW FW FW FW FW FW FW FW FW FW FW SC SC SC B1 B2 B2 B2 OV OV POP 12HR 10 10 10 10 50 QPF 12HR 0 0 0 0 0.13 RAIN SHWRS C C C C TSTMS C C C C OBVIS PF PF HEAT INDEX 81 80 85 84 82 80 MAX HEAT 82 86 86 83 83 DATE 07/14 TUE 07/15/08 WED 07/16/08 THU 07/17/08 FRI 07/18/08 EDT 6HRLY 14 20 02 08 14 20 02 08 14 20 02 08 14 20 02 08 14 20 UTC 6HRLY 18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 MAX/MIN 81 64 84 64 86 67 89 69 87 TEMP 79 75 67 67 84 77 67 67 86 79 70 70 89 81 72 72 87 81 DEWPT 64 62 59 58 56 58 60 60 60 62 64 64 64 65 66 66 66 67 PWIND DIR W N N W W W W SW SW WIND CHAR LT LT GN LT LT LT LT LT LT AVG CLOUDS OV B2 B1 SC FW FW CL CL FW FW CL FW FW FW FW FW SC SC POP 12HR 50 30 10 10 10 10 10 10 20 RAIN SHWRS C C C C S TSTMS C C S $$ CTZ005-006-120915- NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN- 406 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2008 DATE 07/11/08 SAT 07/12/08 SUN 07/13/08 MON EDT 3HRLY 17 20 23 02 05 08 11 14 17 20 23 02 05 08 11 14 17 20 23 02 05 08 UTC 3HRLY 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 MIN/MAX 58 60 64 81 84 88 60 62 65 81 83 86 65 66 68 TEMP 79 74 66 63 62 68 78 82 82 75 69 66 64 69 76 79 79 74 70 68 67 70 DEWPT 57 59 60 60 60 63 64 64 64 64 63 62 61 63 64 64 66 66 66 65 65 65 RH 47 59 81 90 93 84 62 55 55 69 81 87 90 81 66 60 64 76 87 90 93 84 WIND DIR S S S S S SW SW S S S S S S S S S S S S SW SW W WIND SPD 4 3 2 1 1 2 4 8 10 6 3 2 2 3 8 10 10 8 5 2 3 4 CLOUDS SC SC SC FW FW FW FW FW FW FW FW FW FW SC SC SC B1 B2 B2 B2 OV OV POP 12HR 10 10 10 10 50 QPF 12HR 0 0 0 0 0.05-0.18 RAIN SHWRS C C C C TSTMS C C C C OBVIS PF PF HEAT INDEX 83 83 80 MAX HEAT 84 85 86 82 83 DATE 07/14 TUE 07/15/08 WED 07/16/08 THU 07/17/08 FRI 07/18/08 EDT 6HRLY 14 20 02 08 14 20 02 08 14 20 02 08 14 20 02 08 14 20 UTC 6HRLY 18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 MAX/MIN 79 61 82 59 85 63 86 65 85 TEMP 77 73 64 64 82 74 63 63 85 77 67 66 86 78 68 68 85 78 DEWPT 65 63 58 58 56 58 58 59 60 62 62 63 64 65 64 65 66 67 PWIND DIR W N NW NE W W W S SW WIND CHAR LT LT LT LT LT LT LT LT LT AVG CLOUDS OV B2 B1 SC FW FW CL CL FW FW CL FW FW FW FW FW SC SC POP 12HR 50 30 10 10 10 10 10 10 20 RAIN SHWRS C C C C S TSTMS C C S $$ CTZ009-010-120915- SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN- 406 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2008 DATE 07/11/08 SAT 07/12/08 SUN 07/13/08 MON EDT 3HRLY 17 20 23 02 05 08 11 14 17 20 23 02 05 08 11 14 17 20 23 02 05 08 UTC 3HRLY 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 MIN/MAX 61 63 67 78 83 85 63 65 67 80 82 84 68 TEMP 78 74 69 66 65 70 77 81 81 75 71 68 66 70 75 78 77 73 71 69 68 71 DEWPT 58 61 62 63 62 63 65 64 65 65 65 64 64 65 65 65 66 67 67 67 67 67 RH 50 64 78 90 90 78 67 56 58 71 81 87 93 84 71 64 69 81 87 93 97 87 WIND DIR S SW S S S SW SW S S S SW SW S S S S S S S SW SW W WIND SPD 5 3 2 2 2 3 4 8 10 6 3 2 2 3 8 10 9 8 5 3 3 4 WIND GUST 18 16 CLOUDS FW FW SC FW FW FW FW FW FW FW FW FW FW SC SC SC B1 B2 B2 B2 B2 OV POP 12HR 10 10 10 10 50 QPF 12HR 0 0 0 0 0.04-0.13 RAIN SHWRS C S S C TSTMS C S S C OBVIS PF PF PF HEAT INDEX 82 82 MAX HEAT 82 85 85 DATE 07/14 TUE 07/15/08 WED 07/16/08 THU 07/17/08 FRI 07/18/08 EDT 6HRLY 14 20 02 08 14 20 02 08 14 20 02 08 14 20 02 08 14 20 UTC 6HRLY 18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 MAX/MIN 81 63 83 62 85 65 87 67 86 TEMP 78 75 66 66 83 75 66 65 85 78 69 68 87 80 70 70 86 79 DEWPT 66 63 60 59 57 59 60 60 61 63 64 64 65 66 66 66 66 67 PWIND DIR W N NW NW W W W S SW WIND CHAR LT LT GN LT GN LT LT LT LT AVG CLOUDS OV B2 B1 SC FW FW CL CL FW FW CL FW FW FW FW FW FW SC POP 12HR 50 30 10 10 10 10 10 10 20 RAIN SHWRS C C C C S TSTMS C C S $$ CTZ007-008-120915- NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON- 406 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2008 DATE 07/11/08 SAT 07/12/08 SUN 07/13/08 MON EDT 3HRLY 17 20 23 02 05 08 11 14 17 20 23 02 05 08 11 14 17 20 23 02 05 08 UTC 3HRLY 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 MIN/MAX 58 60 62 79 83 86 61 63 65 77 81 84 65 67 68 TEMP 77 73 66 63 61 68 77 81 80 74 68 66 64 69 76 77 76 72 70 68 67 70 DEWPT 59 60 61 61 60 62 63 63 63 63 64 63 62 64 64 64 66 67 67 66 66 67 RH 54 64 84 93 97 81 62 54 56 69 87 90 93 84 66 64 71 84 90 93 97 90 WIND DIR S S SE SE S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S SW SW WIND SPD 5 3 2 1 1 1 5 8 11 6 4 2 2 3 8 11 10 6 3 2 3 4 CLOUDS FW FW SC FW FW FW FW FW FW FW FW FW FW SC SC SC SC B1 B1 B2 B2 OV POP 12HR 10 10 10 10 40 QPF 12HR 0 0 0 0 0.05 RAIN SHWRS S S C TSTMS S S C OBVIS PF PF PF HEAT INDEX 81 80 MAX HEAT 82 84 85 82 82 DATE 07/14 TUE 07/15/08 WED 07/16/08 THU 07/17/08 FRI 07/18/08 EDT 6HRLY 14 20 02 08 14 20 02 08 14 20 02 08 14 20 02 08 14 20 UTC 6HRLY 18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 MAX/MIN 80 62 81 60 84 63 85 65 84 TEMP 77 73 65 65 81 73 63 63 84 76 67 66 85 78 68 68 84 77 DEWPT 66 64 59 59 57 59 58 59 60 63 62 64 64 65 64 65 65 66 PWIND DIR W N NW N W W W S SW WIND CHAR LT LT GN LT LT LT LT LT LT AVG CLOUDS OV B2 B1 SC FW FW CL CL FW CL CL FW FW FW FW FW FW SC POP 12HR 50 40 10 10 10 10 10 10 20 RAIN SHWRS C C C C S TSTMS C C S $$ CTZ011-012-120915- SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON- 406 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2008 DATE 07/11/08 SAT 07/12/08 SUN 07/13/08 MON EDT 3HRLY 17 20 23 02 05 08 11 14 17 20 23 02 05 08 11 14 17 20 23 02 05 08 UTC 3HRLY 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 MIN/MAX 60 61 64 76 78 80 61 64 66 75 77 80 65 67 68 TEMP 74 71 67 64 62 68 74 76 75 71 69 67 65 69 73 74 73 70 69 69 68 71 DEWPT 60 61 62 62 61 63 64 64 64 64 65 64 63 65 66 66 67 68 68 67 68 68 RH 62 71 84 93 97 84 71 66 69 79 87 90 93 87 79 76 81 93 97 93100 90 WIND DIR S S SE SE S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S SW SW SW WIND SPD 6 3 2 1 1 2 6 8 9 5 4 3 3 4 9 10 10 6 4 4 4 4 WIND GUST 18 17 16 CLOUDS FW FW SC FW FW FW FW FW FW FW FW FW FW SC SC SC SC B1 B1 B2 B2 OV POP 12HR 10 10 10 10 40 QPF 12HR 0 0 0 0 0.04 RAIN SHWRS S S C TSTMS S S C OBVIS PF PF PF DATE 07/14 TUE 07/15/08 WED 07/16/08 THU 07/17/08 FRI 07/18/08 EDT 6HRLY 14 20 02 08 14 20 02 08 14 20 02 08 14 20 02 08 14 20 UTC 6HRLY 18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 MAX/MIN 79 63 81 61 83 65 84 66 83 TEMP 76 74 66 66 81 73 64 64 83 76 68 68 84 77 69 68 83 77 DEWPT 67 64 61 60 59 61 60 60 62 64 64 65 65 66 66 66 67 67 PWIND DIR SW N NW N W W W SW SW WIND CHAR LT LT GN LT GN LT LT LT LT AVG CLOUDS OV B2 B1 SC FW FW CL CL FW CL CL FW FW FW FW FW FW SC POP 12HR 50 40 10 10 10 10 10 10 20 RAIN SHWRS C C C C S TSTMS C C S $$ NYZ077-078-080-120915- NASSAU-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK- 406 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2008 DATE 07/11/08 SAT 07/12/08 SUN 07/13/08 MON EDT 3HRLY 17 20 23 02 05 08 11 14 17 20 23 02 05 08 11 14 17 20 23 02 05 08 UTC 3HRLY 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 MIN/MAX 63 67 69 72 80 83 65 67 69 75 81 83 69 TEMP 77 74 71 69 68 72 77 78 77 73 71 69 67 70 75 77 75 72 71 70 69 72 DEWPT 56 61 63 63 62 63 62 63 63 64 65 65 64 66 66 66 67 68 68 67 68 68 RH 48 64 76 81 81 73 60 60 62 73 81 87 90 87 74 69 76 87 90 90 97 87 WIND DIR S S S S S SW S S S S S S S S S S S S S SW SW W WIND SPD 6 4 3 3 3 4 5 10 12 10 8 5 4 6 10 12 12 10 8 6 5 6 WIND GUST 16 23 23 23 23 20 17 16 CLOUDS FW FW FW FW FW FW FW FW FW FW FW FW FW SC SC SC B1 B1 B2 B2 B2 OV POP 12HR 10 10 10 10 50 QPF 12HR 0 0 0 0 0.05 RAIN SHWRS S S C TSTMS S S C OBVIS PF PF DATE 07/14 TUE 07/15/08 WED 07/16/08 THU 07/17/08 FRI 07/18/08 EDT 6HRLY 14 20 02 08 14 20 02 08 14 20 02 08 14 20 02 08 14 20 UTC 6HRLY 18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 MAX/MIN 81 65 83 64 85 68 87 69 86 TEMP 79 75 68 68 83 76 67 67 85 78 71 71 87 80 72 71 86 80 DEWPT 66 63 60 59 57 59 61 61 61 63 64 65 64 66 66 67 66 67 PWIND DIR W N NE NW W W SW SW SW WIND CHAR GN LT GN LT GN LT GN LT GN AVG CLOUDS OV B2 B1 SC SC FW CL CL FW FW CL FW FW FW FW FW SC SC POP 12HR 50 40 10 10 10 10 10 10 20 RAIN SHWRS C C C C S TSTMS C C S $$ NYZ079-081-120915- NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK- 406 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2008 DATE 07/11/08 SAT 07/12/08 SUN 07/13/08 MON EDT 3HRLY 17 20 23 02 05 08 11 14 17 20 23 02 05 08 11 14 17 20 23 02 05 08 UTC 3HRLY 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 MIN/MAX 59 62 66 75 79 82 62 64 66 76 78 80 68 TEMP 75 70 67 65 63 69 74 76 75 72 70 68 66 69 72 74 73 71 70 69 69 72 DEWPT 57 61 62 62 61 63 62 63 64 65 65 65 64 65 64 65 67 68 68 68 69 69 RH 54 73 84 90 93 81 66 64 69 79 84 90 93 87 76 74 81 90 93 97100 90 WIND DIR S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S SW SW SW WIND SPD 6 3 1 1 2 2 5 9 10 8 5 4 3 5 8 11 9 6 5 4 5 6 CLOUDS FW FW FW FW FW FW FW FW FW FW FW FW FW SC SC SC SC B1 B1 B2 B2 OV POP 12HR 10 10 10 10 40 QPF 12HR 0 0 0 0 0.04 RAIN SHWRS S S C TSTMS S S C OBVIS PF PF PF DATE 07/14 TUE 07/15/08 WED 07/16/08 THU 07/17/08 FRI 07/18/08 EDT 6HRLY 14 20 02 08 14 20 02 08 14 20 02 08 14 20 02 08 14 20 UTC 6HRLY 18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 MAX/MIN 80 64 81 62 82 65 85 67 83 TEMP 77 74 67 67 81 74 65 65 82 76 68 68 85 78 70 69 83 78 DEWPT 67 65 61 61 59 61 60 62 62 65 64 65 66 67 66 68 67 68 PWIND DIR SW N N NE W W SW SW SW WIND CHAR GN LT GN LT GN LT GN LT GN AVG CLOUDS OV B2 B1 SC FW FW CL CL FW CL CL FW FW FW FW FW FW FW POP 12HR 50 40 10 10 10 10 10 10 20 RAIN SHWRS C C C C S TSTMS C C S $$ WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 11 15:55:37 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6BKtbn8007412 for ; Fri, 11 Jul 2008 15:55:37 -0500 Message-Id: <200807112055.m6BKtbn8007412@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 15:54:21 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 20:55:38 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT42 KNHC 112041 TCDAT2 HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 500 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2008 AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING BERTHA AND FOUND A 976 MB MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE. THE MAXIMUM REPORTED WINDS AT FLIGHT LEVEL...700 MB...HAVE BEEN OF THE ORDER OF 90 TO 99 KNOTS IN NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST QUADRANTS RESPECTIVELY. MAXIMUM SFMR WINDS WERE 72 KNOTS BUT THE DATA WAS RAIN CONTAMINATED. A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO MEASUREMENTS FOR THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 80 KNOTS. LATEST AMSU DATA SHOW THAT THE INNER WALL HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED AND IS ALMOST CLOSED AGAIN...SO THE CHANGE FOR REINTENSIFICATION EXISTS. AT THIS TIME...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...BERTHA SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN WHEN IT REACHES COOLER WATER AND HIGHER SHEAR. BERTHA HAS SLOWLY BEGAN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 4 KNOTS AROUND THE EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES COAST IS GOING TO BYPASS BERTHA AND WILL LEAVE THE HURRICANE EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS FOR A FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLOW MOTION TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. LONG RANGE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT BERTHA WILL CONTINUE WITHIN VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS AND I WILL NOT BE SURPRISED IF BERTHA KEEPS MEANDERING A LITTLE LONGER. IN FACT...SOME MODELS KEEP BERTHA LOOPING FOR SEVERAL DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/2100Z 29.1N 62.2W 80 KT 12HR VT 12/0600Z 29.5N 62.7W 80 KT 24HR VT 12/1800Z 30.2N 62.7W 80 KT 36HR VT 13/0600Z 30.6N 62.5W 75 KT 48HR VT 13/1800Z 31.5N 62.3W 70 KT 72HR VT 14/1800Z 32.5N 62.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 15/1800Z 34.0N 61.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 16/1800Z 35.0N 60.0W 55 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 11 16:04:54 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6BL4sn8007486 for ; Fri, 11 Jul 2008 16:04:54 -0500 Message-Id: <200807112104.m6BL4sn8007486@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 16:03:38 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 21:04:54 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 112102 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 502 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161- GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-112300- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON- JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN- CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL- IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE- DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES... CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY... DAWSON...ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTER...ASHBURN... TIFTON...FITZGERALD...OCILLA...DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY... COLQUITT...NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM...MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS... NASHVILLE...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO...THOMASVILLE... QUITMAN...VALDOSTA...LAKELAND 502 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2008 /402 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 7 PM EDT (6 PM CDT)...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE HEAVIER STORMS WILL BE IN NORTH COFFEE...DALE...HENRY...NORTHWEST HOUSTON...QUITMAN..RANDOLPH...BROOKS AND LOWNDES COUNTIES. THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVEL SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...AND SOME WILL CONTAIN FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.THESE STORMS WILL START TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS. BOATERS IN NEAR SHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE CHOPPY SEAS IN AND AROUND THE STORMS. $$ SABREE/RUBIO This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 11 16:54:55 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6BLstn8007763 for ; Fri, 11 Jul 2008 16:54:55 -0500 Message-Id: <200807112154.m6BLstn8007763@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 16:53:39 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Local Storm Report X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 21:54:55 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) NWUS52 KTAE 112151 LSRTAE PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 551 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2008 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0130 PM LIGHTNING 1 S DESSER 30.87N 84.86W 07/11/2008 SEMINOLE GA TRAINED SPOTTER NUMEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. ONE HOUSE WAS STRUCK BY LIGHTNING WITH NO MAJOR DAMAGE. 0330 PM TSTM WND GST 4 S ABBEVILLE 31.51N 85.25W 07/11/2008 E45.00 MPH HENRY AL EMERGENCY MNGR ONE TRACTOR TRAILER WAS BLOWN OFF THE ROAD. 0431 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 W OZARK 31.46N 85.67W 07/11/2008 DALE AL LAW ENFORCEMENT TWO TREES WERE DOWN ON HIGHWAY 27 TOWARDS COUNTY ROUTE 16. 0530 PM FLOOD CUTHBERT 31.77N 84.79W 07/11/2008 RANDOLPH GA LAW ENFORCEMENT SOME WATER WAS OVER THE ROAD IN TOWN AND AT BENEVOLENCE ROAD FROM 300 PM TO 530 PM EDT. ONE TREE WAS ALSO DOWN. && $$ WOOL This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 11 16:55:57 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6BLtvn8007777 for ; Fri, 11 Jul 2008 16:55:57 -0500 Message-Id: <200807112155.m6BLtvn8007777@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 16:54:41 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 21:55:57 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 112153 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 553 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161- GMZ730-750-755-765-120000- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON- JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN- CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL- IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE- DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES... CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY... DAWSON...ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTER...ASHBURN... TIFTON...FITZGERALD...OCILLA...DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY... COLQUITT...NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM...MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS... NASHVILLE...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO...THOMASVILLE... QUITMAN...VALDOSTA...LAKELAND 553 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2008 /453 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 8 PM EDT (7 PM CDT)...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVEL SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE MOST INTENSE OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE ALABAMA AND GEORGIA COUNTIES...AND WILL CONTAIN OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND PROLONGED PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL. DUE TO HIGH RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS...MINOR FLOODING IN SOME AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE. STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT TWO HOURS...AND A STRAY SHOWER MAY LINGER OVER ADJACENT FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS. $$ RUBIO This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 11 17:59:53 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6BMxrn8008187 for ; Fri, 11 Jul 2008 17:59:53 -0500 Message-Id: <200807112259.m6BMxrn8008187@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 17:58:37 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 22:59:54 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 112257 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 557 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2008 ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ076-079-120200- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-GREENE-GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM... MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN... PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE... LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON... ANDALUSIA...OPP...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE... TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY... SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA... FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY... MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW... WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE... EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...LUCEDALE 557 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2008 NOW...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND AREAS OF GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. JUST BEFORE 6 PM...THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOST NUMEROUS BETWEEN GREENVILLE AND EVERGREEN. THAT AREA AND THE AREA JUST TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AROUND LUVERNE AND ANDALUSIA CAN EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN...POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS AN INCH THROUGH 7 PM. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL POP UP THIS EVENING AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS MERGE AND DEVELOP NEW SHOWERS AND STORMS. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...BUT A FEW STORMS WILL OCCASIONALLY PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 11 18:27:32 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6BNRWn8008408 for ; Fri, 11 Jul 2008 18:27:32 -0500 Message-Id: <200807112327.m6BNRWn8008408@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 18:26:15 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 23:27:32 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 112324 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 724 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161- GMZ730-750-755-765-120130- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON- JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN- CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL- IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE- DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES... CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY... DAWSON...ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTER...ASHBURN... TIFTON...FITZGERALD...OCILLA...DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY... COLQUITT...NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM...MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS... NASHVILLE...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO...THOMASVILLE... QUITMAN...VALDOSTA...LAKELAND 724 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2008 /624 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 930 PM EDT (830 PM CDT)...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVEL SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS WILL BE LOCATED IN THE NORTH PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY IN THE ALABAMA AND GEORGIA COUNTIES...AND COULD PRODUCE PROLONGED PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL IN SOME PLACES. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR WILL CONTAIN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DUE TO HIGH RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS...MINOR FLOODING IN SOME AREAS MAY BE POSSIBLE. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DECREASE DURING THE NEXT TWO HOURS. $$ RUBIO This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 11 18:58:54 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6BNwsn8008572 for ; Fri, 11 Jul 2008 18:58:54 -0500 Message-Id: <200807112358.m6BNwsn8008572@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 18:57:37 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 23:58:54 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 112348 TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE BERTHA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 35A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 800 PM AST FRI JUL 11 2008 ..CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE BERTHA STILL SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND CRAWLING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.3 WEST OR ABOUT 250 MILES...400 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY... FOLLOWED BY A CONTINUED SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BERTHA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BERTHA COULD COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO BERMUDA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO BRING WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE TO THAT ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES. THE OUTER BANDS OF BERTHA ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN BERMUDA OF 1 TO 2 INCHES DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...29.3 N...62.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER KNABB WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 11 18:58:54 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6BNwsn8008575 for ; Fri, 11 Jul 2008 18:58:54 -0500 Message-Id: <200807112358.m6BNwsn8008575@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 18:57:37 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 23:58:55 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 112349 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER KNABB This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 11 19:38:50 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6C0con8008828 for ; Fri, 11 Jul 2008 19:38:50 -0500 Message-Id: <200807120038.m6C0con8008828@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 19:37:33 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 00:38:50 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 120028 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 828 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161- GMZ730-750-755-765-120230- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON- JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN- CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL- IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE- DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES... CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY... DAWSON...ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTER...ASHBURN... TIFTON...FITZGERALD...OCILLA...DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY... COLQUITT...NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM...MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS... NASHVILLE...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO...THOMASVILLE... QUITMAN...VALDOSTA...LAKELAND 828 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2008 /728 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 1030 PM EDT (930 PM CDT)...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVEL SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH THROUGHOUT THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND LARGE ACCUMULATIONS MAY CAUSE MINOR LOCALIZED FLOODING. MOST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT TWO HOURS...BECOMING MAINLY VERY LIGHT. $$ RUBIO This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 11 20:22:35 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6C1MZn8009073 for ; Fri, 11 Jul 2008 20:22:35 -0500 Message-Id: <200807120122.m6C1MZn8009073@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 20:21:18 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 01:22:35 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 120120 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 920 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161- GMZ730-750-755-765-120330- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON- JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN- CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL- IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE- DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES... CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY... DAWSON...ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTER...ASHBURN... TIFTON...FITZGERALD...OCILLA...DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY... COLQUITT...NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM...MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS... NASHVILLE...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO...THOMASVILLE... QUITMAN...VALDOSTA...LAKELAND 920 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2008 /820 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 1130 PM EDT (1030 PM CDT)...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVEL SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE HEAVIEST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY THE ALABAMA AND GEORGIA COUNTIES...AND SOME LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DUE TO HIGH RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. THE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERALL DURING THE NEXT TWO HOURS. $$ RUBIO This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 11 21:29:56 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6C2Tun8009442 for ; Fri, 11 Jul 2008 21:29:56 -0500 Message-Id: <200807120229.m6C2Tun8009442@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 21:28:38 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 02:29:56 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 120227 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1027 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161- GMZ730-750-755-765-120445- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON- JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN- CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL- IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE- DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES... CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY... DAWSON...ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTER...ASHBURN... TIFTON...FITZGERALD...OCILLA...DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY... COLQUITT...NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM...MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS... NASHVILLE...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO...THOMASVILLE... QUITMAN...VALDOSTA...LAKELAND 1027 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2008 /927 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 1230 AM EDT (1130 PM CDT)...SCATTERED MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVEL SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. $$ BLOCK This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 11 22:02:09 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6C329n8009644 for ; Fri, 11 Jul 2008 22:02:09 -0500 Message-Id: <200807120302.m6C329n8009644@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 22:00:52 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 03:02:10 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 120246 TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 PM AST FRI JUL 11 2008 ..SLOW FORWARD MOTION OF BERTHA NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE SOON... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.4 WEST OR ABOUT 245 MILES... 395 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. BERTHA IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THE MOTION COULD OCCASIONALLY BE ERRATIC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BERTHA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BERTHA COULD COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO BERMUDA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO BRING WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE TO THAT ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES. LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OUTER BANDS OF BERTHA ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN BERMUDA OF 1 TO 2 INCHES DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...29.4 N...62.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER KNABB This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 11 22:17:28 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6C3HSn8009729 for ; Fri, 11 Jul 2008 22:17:28 -0500 Message-Id: <200807120317.m6C3HSn8009729@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 22:16:10 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 03:17:29 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT42 KNHC 120300 TCDAT2 HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 36 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2008 THE GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF BERTHA HAS NOT CHANGED THAT MUCH SINCE THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DEPARTED SEVERAL HOURS AGO...AND THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE ABOUT THE SAME...SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 80 KT. BOTH INFRARED AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGEST THERE IS STILL SOMETHING OF AN INNER EYEWALL THAT REFUSES TO COMPLETELY GO AWAY...WHILE THE OUTER EYEWALL PERSISTS AS A CLOSED RING AT A SLIGHTLY SMALLER RADIUS THAN 24 HOURS AGO. ALL OF THAT MEANS THAT THE WELL-ADVERTISED EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS NOT EXACTLY PROCEEDING AT A BLISTERING PACE...AND I AM REALLY NOT SURE HOW THE INNER CORE STRUCTURE WILL EVOLVE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. PERSISTENCE MIGHT BE A GOOD GUIDE...SO A VERY SLOW CHANGE IN BERTHA'S STRUCTURE WILL BE THE ASSUMPTION DRIVING THE FLAT INTENSITY FORECAST THROUGH 24 HOURS. VERY GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST THEREAFTER...IN ACCORDANCE WITH A CONSENSUS OF OUR PRIMARY INTENSITY MODELS...AS BERTHA TAKES ITS TIME MOVING TOWARD COOLER WATERS. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALMOST AN EXACT COPY OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. BERTHA IS CAUGHT IN A VERY WEAK STEERING REGIME AS IT CONTINUES MOVING...BARELY...AT 335/4. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS DO NOT OFFER MUCH PROGNOSTIC EVIDENCE THAT A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WITH SUFFICIENT AMPLITUDE WILL BE ABLE TO GET BERTHA MOVING MUCH FASTER WITHIN THE FIVE-DAY FORECAST PERIOD. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG THE U.S. NORTHEAST COAST WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BYPASS BERTHA WELL TO THE NORTH...AND NONE OF THE MODELS FORECAST BERTHA TO ACCELERATE AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH WITHIN FIVE DAYS...ALTHOUGH THAT TROUGH LOOKS TO BE STRONGER AND MIGHT TRULY PICK UP BERTHA BEYOND THAT TIME. IN BETWEEN THOSE TWO TROUGHS...THE MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW MUCH OF A RIDGE MIGHT FORM NORTH OF BERTHA...AND SOME OF THEM FORECAST BERTHA TO STALL WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. IN ADDITION...MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW AT LEAST SOME SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION ON DAY 5...IN RESPONSE TO A CUTOFF LOW FORECAST TO BE NOT FAR NORTHEAST OF BERTHA BY THAT TIME. THE RESULT OF THE COMPLICATED SET OF INDIVIDUAL MODEL TRACKS IS A CONSENSUS THAT LEADS ME TO SLOW DOWN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST JUST SLIGHTLY...ALSO WITH A NUDGE TO THE WEST...ALONG A TRACK SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THAT SIMPLY BENDS BERTHA'S MOTION GRADUALLY TO THE RIGHT... AT A SPEED OF ABOUT 3 KT THROUGHOUT THE FIVE-DAY FORECAST. SOME ERRATIC MOTION AT SOME POINT ALONG THE WAY WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING. THE PROBABILITY OF WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE OCCURRING IN BERMUDA WITHIN THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...AS CONVEYED IN THE WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT INCLUDED IN EACH ADVISORY PACKAGE...HAS BEEN GRADUALLY RISING DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AND HAS NOW REACHED 58%. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0300Z 29.4N 62.4W 80 KT 12HR VT 12/1200Z 30.0N 62.6W 80 KT 24HR VT 13/0000Z 30.6N 62.6W 80 KT 36HR VT 13/1200Z 31.2N 62.5W 75 KT 48HR VT 14/0000Z 31.7N 62.4W 70 KT 72HR VT 15/0000Z 33.0N 62.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 16/0000Z 34.0N 61.5W 60 KT 120HR VT 17/0000Z 35.0N 60.5W 60 KT $$ FORECASTER KNABB WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 11 22:20:33 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6C3KXn8009753 for ; Fri, 11 Jul 2008 22:20:33 -0500 Message-Id: <200807120320.m6C3KXn8009753@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 22:19:15 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 03:20:33 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 120317 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1117 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>011-013-016>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148- 155>161-GMZ730-755-765-120545- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-CALHOUN-GADSDEN-LEON-JEFFERSON-MADISON- LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-RANDOLPH- TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-EARLY- MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-DECATUR- GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...BLOUNTSTOWN...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES... CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY... DAWSON...ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTER...ASHBURN... TIFTON...FITZGERALD...OCILLA...DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY... COLQUITT...NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM...MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS... NASHVILLE...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO...THOMASVILLE... QUITMAN...VALDOSTA...LAKELAND 1117 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2008 /1017 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 130 AM EDT (1230 AM CDT)...PATCHY DRIZZLE AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVEL SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. $$ BLOCK This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 11 23:22:43 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6C4Mhn8010075 for ; Fri, 11 Jul 2008 23:22:43 -0500 Message-Id: <200807120422.m6C4Mhn8010075@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 23:21:25 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 04:22:43 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 120420 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1220 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161- GMZ730-750-755-765-120645- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON- JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN- CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL- IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE- DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES... CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY... DAWSON...ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTER...ASHBURN... TIFTON...FITZGERALD...OCILLA...DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY... COLQUITT...NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM...MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS... NASHVILLE...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO...THOMASVILLE... QUITMAN...VALDOSTA...LAKELAND 1220 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2008 /1120 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 230 AM EDT (130 AM CDT)...PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS GULF AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. $$ BLOCK This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 12 00:50:09 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6C5o9n8010525 for ; Sat, 12 Jul 2008 00:50:09 -0500 Message-Id: <200807120550.m6C5o9n8010525@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 00:48:51 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 05:50:10 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 120541 TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE BERTHA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 36A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 200 AM AST SAT JUL 12 2008 ..BERTHA REMAINS ON A SLOW TRACK TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. AT 200 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.6 WEST OR ABOUT 230 MILES... 370 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. BERTHA IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THE MOTION COULD OCCASIONALLY BE ERRATIC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BERTHA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BERTHA COULD COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO BERMUDA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO BRING WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE TO THAT ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES. LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OUTER BANDS OF BERTHA ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN BERMUDA OF 1 TO 2 INCHES DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. REPEATING THE 200 AM AST POSITION...29.5 N...62.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 12 00:50:10 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6C5oAn8010528 for ; Sat, 12 Jul 2008 00:50:10 -0500 Message-Id: <200807120550.m6C5oAn8010528@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 00:48:51 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 05:50:10 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 120547 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 230 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 12 03:53:23 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6C8rNn8011476 for ; Sat, 12 Jul 2008 03:53:23 -0500 Message-Id: <200807120853.m6C8rNn8011476@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 03:52:04 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 08:53:23 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 120837 TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 500 AM AST SAT JUL 12 2008 ..LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MOTION OR INTENSITY OF BERTHA... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THE ISLAND LATER TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.5 WEST OR ABOUT 225 MILES... 365 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF BERMUDA...BUT THE MOTION COULD OCCASIONALLY BE ERRATIC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BERTHA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BERTHA COULD COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO BERMUDA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO BRING WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE TO THAT ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES. LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OUTER BANDS OF BERTHA ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN BERMUDA OF 1 TO 2 INCHES DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...29.7 N...62.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 12 03:53:23 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6C8rNn8011479 for ; Sat, 12 Jul 2008 03:53:23 -0500 Message-Id: <200807120853.m6C8rNn8011479@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 03:52:04 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 08:53:24 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT42 KNHC 120849 TCDAT2 HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 37 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 500 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2008 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE INNER EYEWALL REMNANT OF BERTHA IS FINALLY DISSIPATING...WITH THE CLOUD TOPS COOLING IN THE LARGE OUTER EYEWALL. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM 6 HR AGO...AND BASED ON THIS AND PERSISTENCE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 80 KT. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE BUT HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/4...AND THE 4 KT FORWARD SPEED COULD BE GENEROUS. BERTHA IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING FLOW...WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE TROUGH TO BYPASS BERTHA WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE FORMING NORTH OF THE HURRICANE. THE ECMWF...NOGAPS...AND CANADIAN MODEL RESPOND TO THIS BY JOGGING BERTHA TO THE WEST CLOSER TO BERMUDA....WHILE THE GFS... HWRF..AND GFDL CALL FOR A NORTHWARD MOTION A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST. THIS PORTION OF THE NEW FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A NORTHWARD MOTION FOR ABOUT 72 HR...WITH THE 48-72 HR POSITION A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK IN DEFERENCE TO THE MODELS FORECASTING A WESTWARD JOG. AFTER 72 HR...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THAT A NEW TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO LIFT BERTHA TO THE NORTHEAST OR EAST AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED. HOWEVER...THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS MODELS RUNS...AND THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN BOTH THE DIRECTION AND SPEED OF MOTION. THUS...THE NEW FORECAST FOR THOSE TIMES IS ONLY SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN THE CURRENT GUIDANCE. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE LAST SEVERAL ADVISORIES. BERTHA SHOULD MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY FOR THE FIRST 24-36 HR WHILE UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AND OVER WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES. BY 36 HR...THE HURRICANE SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES COOLER WATERS. THEN...BY 72 HR THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE THE WEAKENING RATE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IDENTICAL TO THE LAST ADVISORY THROUGH 48 HR...THEN SHOWS MORE WEAKENING DUE TO THE EXPECTED SHEAR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR BERMUDA LATER THIS MORNING. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0900Z 29.7N 62.5W 80 KT 12HR VT 12/1800Z 30.1N 62.6W 80 KT 24HR VT 13/0600Z 30.7N 62.6W 80 KT 36HR VT 13/1800Z 31.3N 62.6W 75 KT 48HR VT 14/0600Z 31.9N 62.6W 70 KT 72HR VT 15/0600Z 33.5N 62.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 16/0600Z 35.0N 61.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 17/0600Z 36.5N 59.5W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 12 04:58:37 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6C9wbn8012401 for ; Sat, 12 Jul 2008 04:58:37 -0500 Message-Id: <200807120958.m6C9wbn8012401@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 04:57:17 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Hazardous Weather Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 09:58:38 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FLUS42 KTAE 120956 HWOTAE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 555 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161- GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-130955- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON- JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN- CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL- IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE- DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-555 555 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2008 /455 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA WILL SAG SOUTH INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA TODAY...RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE...SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER LOW TODAY...HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TONIGHT. DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA BEHIND THE TROUGH. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS...WITH HIGHER COVERAGE OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ALONG WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE FRONT. THEN THE BERMUDA RIDGE WILL BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DAILY SEA BREEZES. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP. $$ JAMSKI This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 12 05:20:06 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6CAK6n8012523 for ; Sat, 12 Jul 2008 05:20:06 -0500 Message-Id: <200807121020.m6CAK6n8012523@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 05:18:46 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Hazardous Weather Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 10:20:07 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FLUS44 KMOB 121016 HWOMOB HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 515 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008 ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078- 079-131200- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY- COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY- GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- 515 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND THE GULF COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA. DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING AND INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MAIN HAZARDS FROM STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS FROM 40 TO 50 MPH. ISOLATED STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE LIMITS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND PRODUCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH A STRONG OUTGOING TIDE THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN...WITH ALL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 12 05:48:29 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6CAmTn8012672 for ; Sat, 12 Jul 2008 05:48:29 -0500 Message-Id: <200807121048.m6CAmTn8012672@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 05:47:09 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 10:48:30 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 121045 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 545 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008 ALZ063-064-FLZ002-004-006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-121245- LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA- COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY- COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE... FAIRHOPE...FOLEY...SPANISH FORT...PENSACOLA...FERRY PASS... BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY...MYRTLE GROVE... PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH... NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE...EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO 545 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008 NOW... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM SOUTH BALDWIN COUNTY EASTWARD ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 17 MPH. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS THROUGH LATE MORNING...AND WILL DEVELOP INLAND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 AFTER 9 AM. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 12 06:56:36 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6CBuan8013033 for ; Sat, 12 Jul 2008 06:56:36 -0500 Message-Id: <200807121156.m6CBuan8013033@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 06:55:15 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 11:56:36 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 121143 TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE BERTHA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 37A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 800 AM AST SAT JUL 12 2008 ..BERTHA BARELY MOVING... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THE ISLAND LATER TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.6 WEST OR ABOUT 220 MILES... 360 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. BERTHA HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...A NORTH-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TRACK NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR SHOULD BEGIN LATER THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF BERMUDA...BUT THE MOTION COULD OCCASIONALLY BE ERRATIC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BERTHA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BERTHA COULD COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO BERMUDA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO BRING WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE TO THAT ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES. LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OUTER BANDS OF BERTHA ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN BERMUDA OF 1 TO 2 INCHES DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...29.7 N...62.6W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 12 06:56:36 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6CBuan8013036 for ; Sat, 12 Jul 2008 06:56:36 -0500 Message-Id: <200807121156.m6CBuan8013036@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 06:55:16 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 11:56:36 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 121146 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 220 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER AVILA WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 12 07:16:01 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6CCG1n8013146 for ; Sat, 12 Jul 2008 07:16:01 -0500 Message-Id: <200807121216.m6CCG1n8013146@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 07:14:41 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 12:16:02 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 121212 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 712 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008 ALZ063-064-FLZ002-004-006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-121400- LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA- COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY- COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE... FAIRHOPE...FOLEY...SPANISH FORT...PENSACOLA...FERRY PASS... BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY...MYRTLE GROVE... PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH... NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE...EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO 712 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008 NOW... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM AROUND DAUPHIN ISLAND...EAST TO PENSACOLA BEACH AND OFFSHORE OVER THE GULF WATERS WILL CONTINUE MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 17 MPH. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS THROUGH LATE MORNING...AND WILL DEVELOP INLAND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 AFTER 10 AM. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 12 08:46:35 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6CDkZn8013637 for ; Sat, 12 Jul 2008 08:46:35 -0500 Message-Id: <200807121346.m6CDkZn8013637@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 08:45:14 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 13:46:35 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 121343 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 840 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008 ALZ063-064-FLZ002-004-006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-121600- LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA- COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY- COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE... FAIRHOPE...FOLEY...SPANISH FORT...PENSACOLA...FERRY PASS... BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY...MYRTLE GROVE... PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH... NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE...EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO 840 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008 NOW... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... MOVING SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 20 KNOTS. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 5 TO 35 MILES OFFSHORE...STRETCHING FROM NAVARRE BEACH TO DESTIN IN FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. WINDS GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING STRIKES AND ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE COAST AND ONSHORE GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS IF THREATENING WEATHER IS APPROACHING YOUR AREA. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 12 09:35:27 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6CEZRn8013939 for ; Sat, 12 Jul 2008 09:35:27 -0500 Message-Id: <200807121435.m6CEZRn8013939@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 09:34:06 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Hazardous Weather Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 14:35:27 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FLUS42 KTAE 121431 HWOTAE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1031 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161- GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-131000- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON- JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN- CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL- IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE- DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- 1031 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2008 /931 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA... SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT... A SQUEEZE PLAY BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND A TROUGH TO OUR EAST WILL HELP THE SEA BREEZE SPAWN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD EVEN APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS. DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA BEHIND THE TROUGH. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS...WITH HIGHER COVERAGE OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ALONG WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE FRONT. THEN THE BERMUDA RIDGE WILL BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DAILY SEA BREEZES. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY...BUT SPOTTERS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WHICH MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP. $$ JAMSKI/GOULD This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 12 09:44:30 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6CEiUn8014000 for ; Sat, 12 Jul 2008 09:44:30 -0500 Message-Id: <200807121444.m6CEiUn8014000@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 09:43:09 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 14:44:30 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 121433 TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 38 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 AM AST SAT JUL 12 2008 ..BERTHA REMAINS ADRIFT... AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.6 WEST OR ABOUT 210 MILES... 340 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. BERTHA HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/HR LATER TODAY. THIS GENERAL SLOW MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF BERMUDA...BUT THE MOTION COULD OCCASIONALLY BE ERRATIC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BERTHA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL CHECK BERTHA LATER TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES. LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OUTER BANDS OF BERTHA ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN BERMUDA OF 1 TO 2 INCHES DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...29.9 N...62.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 12 09:44:30 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6CEiUn8014003 for ; Sat, 12 Jul 2008 09:44:30 -0500 Message-Id: <200807121444.m6CEiUn8014003@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 09:43:09 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 14:44:30 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT42 KNHC 121433 TCDAT2 HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 38 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2008 AFTER A WEEK OR SO...I AM RUNNING OUT OF THINGS TO SAY ABOUT BERTHA. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE YESTERDAY AND CONSISTS OF A LARGE DIFFUSE EYE SURROUNDED BY MODERATE CONVECTION. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE BEEN DECREASING AND GIVEN THE CURRENT SATELLITE STRUCTURE THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 75 KNOTS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER WILL CHECK BERTHA LATER TODAY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. DUE TO ITS SLOW MOTION...BERTHA IS PROBABLY CAUSING UPWELLING AND THIS COULD RESULT IN A FASTER WEAKENING TREND. BERTHA HAS BARELY MOVED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...PERHAPS TO THE NORTH ABOUT 2 KNOTS. THE CURRENT PATTERN OF WEAK STEERING CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT STILL FAVORS A GENERAL SLOW NORTHERLY TRACK DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...AS BERTHA GETS CLOSER TO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BUT MAINTAINING ITS SLOW PACE. DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SCENARIO AND HAS NOW BEGUN TO TURN BERTHA TOWARD THE EAST BEYOND DAY FOUR. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/1500Z 29.9N 62.6W 75 KT 12HR VT 13/0000Z 30.2N 62.7W 75 KT 24HR VT 13/1200Z 30.7N 62.7W 75 KT 36HR VT 14/0000Z 31.3N 62.7W 70 KT 48HR VT 14/1200Z 32.0N 62.7W 65 KT 72HR VT 15/1200Z 34.0N 62.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 16/1200Z 35.5N 60.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 17/1200Z 36.0N 58.0W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 12 10:19:11 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6CFJBn8014184 for ; Sat, 12 Jul 2008 10:19:11 -0500 Message-Id: <200807121519.m6CFJBn8014184@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 10:17:50 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 15:19:11 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 121516 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1116 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2008 FLZ007>019-026>029-034-121700- INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY- CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY- WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY 1116 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2008 /1016 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 100 PM EDT (1200 PM CDT)...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND AREAS. THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY OVER TAYLOR...DIXIE...BAY...AND GULF COUNTIES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 12 11:37:34 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6CGbYn8014617 for ; Sat, 12 Jul 2008 11:37:34 -0500 Message-Id: <200807121637.m6CGbYn8014617@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 11:36:12 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 16:37:34 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 121635 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 1135 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008 ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-121845- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY- WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM... MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN... PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE... LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON... ANDALUSIA...OPP...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE... TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY... SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA... FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY... MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW... WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE... EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT... NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE 1135 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008 NOW... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY BE EAST OF A LINE STRETCHING FROM THOMASVILLE TO MOBILE IN ALABAMA DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST OF THIS AREA CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND BRIEF PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 1 PM. ISOLATED CASES OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADAR OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS IF THREATENING WEATHER IS APPROACHING YOUR AREA. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 12 12:11:14 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6CHBEn8014886 for ; Sat, 12 Jul 2008 12:11:14 -0500 Message-Id: <200807121711.m6CHBEn8014886@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 12:09:53 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 17:11:15 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 121708 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 108 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2008 FLZ007>019-026>029-034-121900- INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY- CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY- WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY 108 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2008 /1208 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 300 PM EDT (200 PM CDT)...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND AREAS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND GUSTY WINDS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER TO A HALF OF AN INCH WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 12 12:11:15 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6CHBFn8014889 for ; Sat, 12 Jul 2008 12:11:15 -0500 Message-Id: <200807121711.m6CHBFn8014889@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 12:09:53 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 17:11:15 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 121708 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 108 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2008 ALZ065>069-121900- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH 1208 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008 NOW... THROUGH 300 PM EDT (200 PM CDT)...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 12 12:29:33 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6CHTXn8015045 for ; Sat, 12 Jul 2008 12:29:33 -0500 Message-Id: <200807121729.m6CHTXn8015045@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 12:28:11 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 17:29:33 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 121726 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 1224 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008 ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-122000- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY- WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM... MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN... PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE... LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON... ANDALUSIA...OPP...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE... TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY... SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA... FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY... MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW... WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE... EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT... NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE 1224 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008 NOW... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY BE EAST OF A LINE STRETCHING FROM THOMASVILLE TO MOBILE IN ALABAMA DURING THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST OF THIS AREA CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND BRIEF PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 1 PM. ISOLATED CASES OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADAR OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS IF THREATENING WEATHER IS APPROACHING YOUR AREA. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 12 12:47:43 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6CHlhn8015201 for ; Sat, 12 Jul 2008 12:47:43 -0500 Message-Id: <200807121747.m6CHlhn8015201@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 12:46:21 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 17:47:43 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 121733 TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE BERTHA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 38A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 200 PM AST SAT JUL 12 2008 ..AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS A SLIGHTLY WEAKER BERTHA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.5 WEST OR ABOUT 215 MILES... 345 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. BERTHA HAS BEEN MEANDERING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY. HOWEVER...BERTHA SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/HR LATER TONIGHT. THIS GENERAL SLOW MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF BERMUDA...BUT THE MOTION COULD OCCASIONALLY BE ERRATIC. PRELIMINARY DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BERTHA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. NO IMPORTANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES. LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OUTER BANDS OF BERTHA ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN BERMUDA OF 1 TO 2 INCHES DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...29.9 N...62.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST. $$ WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 12 12:47:43 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6CHlhn8015204 for ; Sat, 12 Jul 2008 12:47:43 -0500 Message-Id: <200807121747.m6CHlhn8015204@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 12:46:21 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 17:47:43 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 121736 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 215 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER AVILA This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 12 13:17:31 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6CIHVn8015452 for ; Sat, 12 Jul 2008 13:17:31 -0500 Message-Id: <200807121817.m6CIHVn8015452@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 13:16:09 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Special Weather Statement X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 18:17:31 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WWUS84 KMOB 121814 SPSMOB SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 114 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008 FLZ005-006-121900- INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA- 114 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008 ..A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS BEING DETECTED OVER OKALOOSA COUNTY... AT 108 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTH OF DORCAS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 16 MPH. THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND... EAST CENTRAL OKALOOSA COUNTY THROUGH 200 PM CDT. THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG COULD DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 12 13:44:55 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6CIitn8015686 for ; Sat, 12 Jul 2008 13:44:55 -0500 Message-Id: <200807121844.m6CIitn8015686@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 13:43:32 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 18:44:55 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 121842 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 135 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008 ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-122200- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY- WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM... MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN... PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE... LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON... ANDALUSIA...OPP...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE... TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY... SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA... FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY... MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW... WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE... EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT... NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE 135 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008 NOW... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND MOVE SOUTHWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY BE EAST OF A LINE STRETCHING FROM BUTLER TO MOBILE IN ALABAMA INCLUDING THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE DURING THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST OF THIS AREA CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND BRIEF PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 4 PM. ISOLATED CASES OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADAR OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS IF THREATENING WEATHER IS APPROACHING YOUR AREA. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 12 13:58:08 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6CIw7n8015792 for ; Sat, 12 Jul 2008 13:58:07 -0500 Message-Id: <200807121858.m6CIw7n8015792@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 13:56:45 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 18:58:08 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 121856 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 256 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2008 FLZ007>019-026>029-034-122100- INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY- CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY- WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY 256 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2008 /156 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 5 PM EDT (4 PM CDT)...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRAVEL SOUTH AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG AND CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTING...AND GUSTY WINDS. STORMS MAY INTENSIFY AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE NEXT TWO HOURS...WHILE SOME STORMS AND GUST FRONTS MAY COLLIDE AND PRODUCE ADDITIONAL STORMS. $$ RUBIO This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 12 13:58:08 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6CIw8n8015795 for ; Sat, 12 Jul 2008 13:58:08 -0500 Message-Id: <200807121858.m6CIw8n8015795@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 13:56:45 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 18:58:08 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 121856 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 256 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2008 ALZ065>069-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-122100- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-QUITMAN-CLAY-RANDOLPH-CALHOUN- TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-EARLY- MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-DECATUR- GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES...CUTHBERT... SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY...DAWSON... ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTER...ASHBURN...TIFTON... FITZGERALD...OCILLA...DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY...COLQUITT... NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM...MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS... NASHVILLE...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO...THOMASVILLE... QUITMAN...VALDOSTA...LAKELAND 256 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2008 /156 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 5 PM EDT (4 PM CDT)...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRAVEL SOUTH AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. STORMS MAY CONTAIN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND GUSTY WINDS...AND MAY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE DURING THE NEXT TWO HOURS. $$ RUBIO This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 12 13:58:08 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6CIw8n8015798 for ; Sat, 12 Jul 2008 13:58:08 -0500 Message-Id: <200807121858.m6CIw8n8015798@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 13:56:46 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Special Weather Statement X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 18:58:08 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WWUS84 KMOB 121856 SPSMOB SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 155 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008 ALZ056>060-121945- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANDALUSIA... 155 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008 ..STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO ESCAMBIA... COVINGTON...CONECUH...BUTLER AND CRENSHAW COUNTIES... AT 150 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF PAUL TO 2 MILES NORTHWEST OF DOZIER...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 26 MPH. THESE LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND... ROSE HILL...PAUL...RIVER FALLS...LOANGO...BROOKLYN...BOYKIN... ANDALUSIA AND EODA THROUGH 245 PM CDT. THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG COULD DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED. THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN BRIEF PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING. $$ WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 12 14:12:21 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6CJCLn8015925 for ; Sat, 12 Jul 2008 14:12:21 -0500 Message-Id: <200807121912.m6CJCLn8015925@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 14:10:59 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Urban/Small Stream Flood Advisory X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 19:12:22 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WGUS84 KMOB 121909 FLSMOB FLOOD ADVISORY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 209 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008 ALC003-FLC033-091-113-122000- /O.NEW.KMOB.FA.Y.0012.080712T1909Z-080712T2000Z/ /00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ 209 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED AN * URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR... SOUTHEASTERN ESCAMBIA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF PENSACOLA... SOUTHERN OKALOOSA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF FORT WALTON BEACH... SOUTHEASTERN SANTA ROSA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF NAVARRE... SOUTHEASTERN BALDWIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA... * UNTIL 300 PM CDT * AT 204 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATED VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA. PONDING OF WATER IN STREETS IN URBAN AREAS...MINOR FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. LAT...LON 3047 8769 3050 8714 3047 8714 3034 8726 3034 8725 3034 8721 3039 8718 3041 8703 3046 8693 3046 8694 3052 8703 3044 8709 3045 8710 3050 8711 3052 8710 3057 8648 3046 8650 3044 8658 3040 8652 3026 8766 $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 12 14:25:34 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6CJPYn8016045 for ; Sat, 12 Jul 2008 14:25:34 -0500 Message-Id: <200807121925.m6CJPYn8016045@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 14:24:12 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Severe Thunderstorm Warning X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 19:25:35 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WUUS54 KMOB 121922 SVRMOB ALC039-122000- /O.NEW.KMOB.SV.W.0222.080712T1922Z-080712T2000Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 222 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... COVINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF ANDALUSIA... * UNTIL 300 PM CDT * AT 213 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS NEAR RIVER FALLS...OR NEAR ANDALUSIA...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... BECK BY 240 PM CDT... LIBERTYVILLE BY 245 PM CDT... RED OAK BY 300 PM CDT... IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. LAT...LON 3110 8639 3107 8660 3140 8660 3141 8646 TIME...MOT...LOC 1922Z 357DEG 13KT 3132 8652 $$ WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 12 14:42:53 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6CJgrn8016236 for ; Sat, 12 Jul 2008 14:42:53 -0500 Message-Id: <200807121942.m6CJgrn8016236@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 14:41:30 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Urban/Small Stream Flood Advisory X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 19:42:53 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WGUS84 KMOB 121940 FLSMOB FLOOD ADVISORY...CORRECTED TEXT... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 240 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008 ALC003-FLC033-091-113-122000- /O.NEW.KMOB.FA.Y.0013.080712T1940Z-080712T2000Z/ /00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ 240 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED AN * URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR... SOUTHEASTERN ESCAMBIA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF PENSACOLA... SOUTHERN OKALOOSA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF FORT WALTON BEACH... SOUTHEASTERN SANTA ROSA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF NAVARRE... SOUTHEASTERN BALDWIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA... * UNTIL 300 PM CDT * AT 209 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN BALDWIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS AND MINOR FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. LAT...LON 3047 8769 3050 8714 3047 8714 3034 8726 3034 8725 3034 8721 3039 8718 3041 8703 3046 8693 3046 8694 3052 8703 3044 8709 3045 8710 3050 8711 3052 8710 3057 8648 3046 8650 3044 8658 3040 8652 3026 8766 $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 12 14:50:51 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6CJopn8016365 for ; Sat, 12 Jul 2008 14:50:51 -0500 Message-Id: <200807121950.m6CJopn8016365@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 14:49:28 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 19:50:51 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 121947 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 347 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-122200- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON- JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY 347 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2008 /247 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 6 PM EDT (5 PM CDT)...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRAVEL SOUTH AROUND 20 TO 15 MPH ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG AND CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY WINDS. STORMS MAY INTENSIFY AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE NEXT TWO HOURS...WHILE SOME STORMS AND GUST FRONTS MAY COLLIDE TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL STORMS. $$ RUBIO This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 12 15:10:18 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6CKAIn8016635 for ; Sat, 12 Jul 2008 15:10:18 -0500 Message-Id: <200807122010.m6CKAIn8016635@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 15:08:56 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 20:10:19 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 122006 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 305 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008 ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-122300- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY- WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM... MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN... PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE... LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON... ANDALUSIA...OPP...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE... TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY... SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA... FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY... MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW... WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE... EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT... NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE 305 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008 NOW... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER INLAND AND COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND MOVE SOUTHWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN COVINGTON COUNTY IN ALABAMA AND NORTHERN OKALOOSA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE STRETCHING FROM DAUPHIN ISLAND TO BUTLER IN ALABAMA INCLUDING THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE DURING THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST OF THIS AREA CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND BRIEF PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 5 PM. ISOLATED CASES OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADAR OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS IF THREATENING WEATHER IS APPROACHING YOUR AREA. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 12 15:21:26 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6CKLQn8016756 for ; Sat, 12 Jul 2008 15:21:26 -0500 Message-Id: <200807122021.m6CKLQn8016756@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 15:20:03 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 20:21:26 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 122018 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST...UPDATE... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 315 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008 ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-122300- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY- WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM... MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN... PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE... LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON... ANDALUSIA...OPP...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE... TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY... SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA... FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY... MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW... WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE... EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT... NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE 315 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008 NOW... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER INLAND AND COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND MOVE SOUTHWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COVINGTON COUNTY IN ALABAMA....AND SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE STRETCHING FROM DAUPHIN ISLAND TO BUTLER IN ALABAMA INCLUDING THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE DURING THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST OF THIS AREA CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND BRIEF PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 5 PM. ISOLATED CASES OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADAR OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS IF THREATENING WEATHER IS APPROACHING YOUR AREA. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 12 15:49:06 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6CKn6n8017021 for ; Sat, 12 Jul 2008 15:49:06 -0500 Message-Id: <200807122049.m6CKn6n8017021@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 15:47:43 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Local Storm Report X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 20:49:07 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) NWUS54 KMOB 122043 LSRMOB PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 343 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0230 PM TSTM WND DMG ANDALUSIA 31.31N 86.48W 07/12/2008 COVINGTON AL EMERGENCY MNGR TREES DOWN IN ANDALUSIA AND RIVER FALLS && $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 12 15:50:53 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6CKorn8017047 for ; Sat, 12 Jul 2008 15:50:53 -0500 Message-Id: <200807122050.m6CKorn8017047@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 15:49:30 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 20:50:53 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 122035 TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 39 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 500 PM AST SAT JUL 12 2008 ..BERTHA BARELY A HURRICANE... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.6 WEST OR ABOUT 210 MILES... 340 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. BERTHA HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE DAY BUT IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A NORTHWARD DRIFT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF BERTHA WILL BE SLOWLY PASSING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF BERMUDA...DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BUT THE MOTION COULD OCCASIONALLY BE ERRATIC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BERTHA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES. LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE OUTER BANDS OF BERTHA ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN BERMUDA OF 1 TO 2 INCHES DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...29.9 N...62.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 1 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 12 15:50:53 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6CKorn8017050 for ; Sat, 12 Jul 2008 15:50:53 -0500 Message-Id: <200807122050.m6CKorn8017050@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 15:49:30 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 20:50:53 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT42 KNHC 122037 TCDAT2 HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 39 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 500 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2008 AN AIR FORCE PLANE HAS COMPLETED TWO PASSES THROUGH THE EYE OF BERTHA AND THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 79 AND 74 KT. THE SFMR ON BOARD OF THE PLANE DID NOT REPORT ANY HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...IN FACT...THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE 58 KNOTS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 65 KNOTS...MAKING BERTHA BARELY A HURRICANE. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE NOT HOSTILE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING BUT BERTHA HAS BEEN LOCATED TOO MANY HOURS IN THE SAME AREA PRODUCING UPWELLING. THE HURRICANE HAS LOST A LOT OF THE DEEP CONVECTION BUT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS LARGE AND VIGOROUS WHILE THE OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED. THEREFORE...BERTHA COULD GATHER SOME STRENGTH WHEN IT GETS OUT THAT AREA OF COOL WATERS INDUCED BY THE HURRICANE ITSELF. FOR NOW...BERTHA IS KEPT AS A 65 KNOT HURRICANE FOR A DAY OR TWO WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR. BERTHA IS LIKELY TO BECOME LARGER AS IT GAINS LATITUDE AND BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW. BERTHA HAS BARELY MOVED DURING THE DAY. THE PATTERN OF WEAK STEERING CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO....SO ONLY A PAINFULLY SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS ANTICIPATED. BEYOND THREE DAYS...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO BE FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE CIRCULATION AND LOCATED BETWEEN AN EASTWARD MOVING TROUGH AND A LARGER CUT OFF LOW TO THE EAST. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE BERTHA ON A SLOW EASTWARD TRACK. THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED MY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AS WELL AS THE DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/2100Z 29.9N 62.6W 65 KT 12HR VT 13/0600Z 30.4N 62.7W 65 KT 24HR VT 13/1800Z 31.0N 62.7W 65 KT 36HR VT 14/0600Z 32.0N 62.8W 65 KT 48HR VT 14/1800Z 33.0N 62.8W 60 KT 72HR VT 15/1800Z 34.5N 61.5W 55 KT 96HR VT 16/1800Z 35.5N 59.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 17/1800Z 35.5N 56.0W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 12 15:52:56 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6CKqun8017074 for ; Sat, 12 Jul 2008 15:52:56 -0500 Message-Id: <200807122052.m6CKqun8017074@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 15:51:34 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 20:52:57 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 122050 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 450 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>123-142>144-155-156- 122300- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON- JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN- CLAY-RANDOLPH-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-SEMINOLE-DECATUR- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES... CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY... DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY...COLQUITT...NEWTON...DONALSONVILLE... BAINBRIDGE 450 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2008 /350 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 7 PM EDT (6 PM CDT)...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRAVEL SOUTH AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...AND PARTS OF EXTREME SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SMALL HAIL. STORMS MAY INTENSIFY AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE NEXT TWO HOURS...WHILE SOME STORMS AND GUST FRONTS MAY COLLIDE TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL STORMS. $$ RUBIO This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 12 16:55:06 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6CLt6n8017587 for ; Sat, 12 Jul 2008 16:55:06 -0500 Message-Id: <200807122155.m6CLt6n8017587@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 16:53:42 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Local Storm Report X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 21:55:06 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) NWUS52 KTAE 122152 LSRTAE PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 552 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2008 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0400 PM TSTM WND DMG GENEVA 31.04N 85.88W 07/12/2008 GENEVA AL EMERGENCY MNGR TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN DOWNTOWN GENEVA. 0520 PM TSTM WND GST 15 NW FORT RUCKER 31.50N 85.90W 07/12/2008 M59 MPH COFFEE AL TRAINED SPOTTER ALSO REPORTED 0.75 INCH HAIL && $$ FOURNIER This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 12 17:04:24 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6CM4On8017641 for ; Sat, 12 Jul 2008 17:04:24 -0500 Message-Id: <200807122204.m6CM4On8017641@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 17:03:00 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 22:04:24 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 122202 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 601 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>123-142>144-155-156- GMZ730-750-755-765-130015- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON- JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN- CLAY-RANDOLPH-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-SEMINOLE-DECATUR- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES... CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY... DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY...COLQUITT...NEWTON...DONALSONVILLE... BAINBRIDGE 601 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2008 /501 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 8 PM EDT (7 PM CDT)...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRAVEL SOUTH AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...AND PARTS OF EXTREME SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...AS WELL AS NEAR SHORE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SMALL HAIL. STORMS MAY INTENSIFY AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY WHERE STORMS AND GUST FRONTS COLLIDE AND PRODUCE ADDITIONAL STORMS. $$ RUBIO This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 12 18:36:14 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6CNaEn8018129 for ; Sat, 12 Jul 2008 18:36:14 -0500 Message-Id: <200807122336.m6CNaEn8018129@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 18:34:50 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Special Weather Statement X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 23:36:14 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WWUS84 KMOB 122333 SPSMOB SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 633 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008 ALZ054>057-130015- CONECUH-MONROE-BUTLER-WILCOX- 633 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008 ..A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS BEING DETECTED OVER SOUTHEAST WILCOX COUNTIES... AT 628 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM OVER RUTHVEN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 12 MPH. THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND... AWIN...AL 47 AND CR 29 ROADS...TURNBULL...BUTLER SPRINGS...MIDWAY AND PINE ORCHARD THROUGH 715 PM CDT. THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG COULD DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. $$ WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 12 18:50:20 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6CNoKn8018202 for ; Sat, 12 Jul 2008 18:50:20 -0500 Message-Id: <200807122350.m6CNoKn8018202@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 18:48:57 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Local Storm Report X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 23:50:21 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) NWUS54 KMOB 122347 LSRMOB PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 646 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0618 PM TSTM WND GST MOBILE AIRPORT 30.68N 88.24W 07/12/2008 M58 MPH MOBILE AL ASOS 0611 PM TSTM WND GST DOWNTOWN MOBILE 30.69N 88.04W 07/12/2008 M56 MPH MOBILE AL ASOS 0611 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 2 E DOWNTOWN MOBILE 30.69N 88.01W 07/12/2008 M43 MPH MOBILE AL MESONET HIGH WIND REPORTED AT USS ALABAMA SITE. && $$ JOEM This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 12 18:55:13 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6CNtDn8018231 for ; Sat, 12 Jul 2008 18:55:13 -0500 Message-Id: <200807122355.m6CNtDn8018231@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 18:53:50 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 23:55:14 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 122352 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 752 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161- GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-130200- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON- JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN- CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL- IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE- DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES... CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY... DAWSON...ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTER...ASHBURN... TIFTON...FITZGERALD...OCILLA...DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY... COLQUITT...NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM...MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS... NASHVILLE...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO...THOMASVILLE... QUITMAN...VALDOSTA...LAKELAND 752 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2008 /652 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 10 PM EDT (9 PM CDT)...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRAVEL SOUTH AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND EASTERN PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY WINDS. IN ADDITION...BOATERS IN AND AROUND THE STORMS MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE LOCALLY CHOPPY WATERS. $$ RUBIO This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 12 19:09:30 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6D09Un8018320 for ; Sat, 12 Jul 2008 19:09:30 -0500 Message-Id: <200807130009.m6D09Un8018320@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 19:08:07 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 00:09:31 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 122356 TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE BERTHA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 39A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 800 PM AST SAT JUL 12 2008 ..CATEGORY ONE BERTHA SITTING STATIONARY SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.5 WEST OR ABOUT 215 MILES... 345 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. BERTHA HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE DAY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A NORTHWARD DRIFT LATER TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY THAT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF BERTHA WILL BE VERY SLOWLY PASSING SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THE MOTION COULD OCCASIONALLY BE ERRATIC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BERTHA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES. LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OUTER BANDS OF BERTHA ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN BERMUDA OF 1 TO 2 INCHES DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...29.9 N...62.5 W. MOVEMENT...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER KNABB WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 12 19:09:31 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6D09Vn8018323 for ; Sat, 12 Jul 2008 19:09:31 -0500 Message-Id: <200807130009.m6D09Vn8018323@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 19:08:07 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 00:09:31 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 122357 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 215 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER KNABB WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 12 19:16:54 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6D0Gsn8018367 for ; Sat, 12 Jul 2008 19:16:54 -0500 Message-Id: <200807130016.m6D0Gsn8018367@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 19:15:30 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 00:16:55 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 130014 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 714 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008 ALZ053-055>057-059-060-FLZ001>006-GMZ655-130300- CLARKE-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-INLAND ESCAMBIA- COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA- INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA- COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL... HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE...ATMORE... BREWTON...EAST BREWTON...ANDALUSIA...OPP...CENTURY...FLOMATON... MOLINO...PENSACOLA...FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA... BELLVIEW...ENSLEY...MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON... GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW...WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH... NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE...EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO 714 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008 NOW...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. A FEW STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 65 THROUGH 8 PM. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 12 21:02:38 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6D22cn8018667 for ; Sat, 12 Jul 2008 21:02:38 -0500 Message-Id: <200807130202.m6D22cn8018667@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 21:01:13 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Local Storm Report X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 02:02:38 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) NWUS52 KTAE 130159 LSRTAE PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 958 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2008 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0400 PM TSTM WND DMG GENEVA 31.04N 85.88W 07/12/2008 GENEVA AL EMERGENCY MNGR TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN DOWNTOWN GENEVA. 0520 PM TSTM WND GST 15 NW FORT RUCKER 31.50N 85.90W 07/12/2008 M59.00 MPH COFFEE AL TRAINED SPOTTER ALSO REPORTED 0.75 INCH HAIL 0600 PM TSTM WND DMG HARTFORD 31.10N 85.70W 07/12/2008 GENEVA AL LAW ENFORCEMENT SEVERAL TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN BLOCKING CR 67. 0605 PM TSTM WND DMG WICKSBURG 31.21N 85.62W 07/12/2008 HOUSTON AL LAW ENFORCEMENT TREES DOWN BLOCKING ROADS. 0815 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 E CRAWFORDVILLE 30.18N 84.29W 07/12/2008 WAKULLA FL LAW ENFORCEMENT SEVERAL POWER LINES DOWN IN EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY. && $$ BARRY This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 12 21:57:31 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6D2vVn8018797 for ; Sat, 12 Jul 2008 21:57:31 -0500 Message-Id: <200807130257.m6D2vVn8018797@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 21:56:07 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 02:57:32 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 130247 TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 40 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 PM AST SAT JUL 12 2008 ..STATIONARY BERTHA EXPECTED TO RESUME SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION TOMORROW... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.4 WEST OR ABOUT 220 MILES... 350 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. BERTHA HAS BEEN STATIONARY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A VERY SLOW MOTION GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO RESUME ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE ON MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PASS NOT FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALTHOUGH THE MOTION COULD BE ERRATIC AT TIMES AND COULD BRING THE CENTER OF BERTHA CLOSER TO BERMUDA THAN THE FORECAST TRACK INDICATES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BERTHA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE THRESHOLD BETWEEN HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES. LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OUTER BANDS OF BERTHA COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN BERMUDA OF 2 TO 4 INCHES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...29.9 N...62.4 W. MOVEMENT... STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER KNABB WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 12 22:12:51 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6D3Cpn8018840 for ; Sat, 12 Jul 2008 22:12:51 -0500 Message-Id: <200807130312.m6D3Cpn8018840@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 22:11:26 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 03:12:51 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT42 KNHC 130300 TCDAT2 HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 40 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2008 BERTHA HAS SEEMINGLY DROPPED ANCHOR A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...AND IT HAS BEEN ABOUT 12 HOURS SINCE THE CENTER HAS MOVED ENOUGH TO ASSIGN A MEANINGFUL FORWARD MOTION. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS STUCK WITHIN A LARGE BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IT SHARES WITH TWO MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOWS...ONE NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND THE OTHER ABOUT 1000 N MI TO ITS EAST. THE EASTERN LOW IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO LIFT OUT AS A BIT OF RIDGING FORMS JUST NORTHEAST OF BERTHA TOMORROW...AND ONCE THAT FEATURE MATERIALIZES...BERTHA SHOULD BEGIN MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD AGAIN. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THE NEXT MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SHOULD REACH THE U.S. NORTHEAST COAST AND START PUSHING BERTHA EASTWARD. VERY LATE IN THE FIVE-DAY FORECAST PERIOD...A NEW MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO DEVELOP CLOSE BY TO THE NORTHEAST OF BERTHA...AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD HAVE A SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION BY THEN. BASED ON THE MODEL GUIDANCE IN THIS SCENARIO...THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS...SINCE NEARLY ALL OF DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A BIT IN THAT DIRECTION. IT IS VERY IMPORTANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT EVEN SLOW-MOVING TROPICAL CYCLONES SUCH AS THIS ONE CAN POSE CHALLENGING TRACK FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES...AND THAT IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACTLY HOW CLOSE THE CENTER OF BERTHA WILL COME TO BERMUDA. EVIDENCE OF THAT UNCERTAINTY LIES IN SOME OF THE LATEST 48-HOUR MODEL TRACKS...WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF JUST A HAIR EAST OF THE OFFICIAL...BUT THE GFS IS FARTHER WEST. THE SPREAD AT 4-5 DAYS IS EVEN LARGER BUT THE SENSE IS FOR A GENERAL EASTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY GREATER FORWARD SPEED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT...SINCE THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE WE HAD AIRCRAFT DATA THIS AFTERNOON...AND KEEPING BERTHA AS A HURRICANE IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CI NUMBERS. FOLLOWING A BRIEF STRONG BURST AROUND 00Z...THE COLD CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY ON THE DECLINE. A SLOW WEAKENING TREND IS PROBABLY NOT TOO FAR IN THE FUTURE...GIVEN THE EFFECTS OF OCEAN UPWELLING UNDER A STATIONARY HURRICANE...AND SINCE WHEN BERTHA DOES GET MOVING IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER STEADILY DECREASING SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/0300Z 29.9N 62.4W 65 KT 12HR VT 13/1200Z 30.2N 62.5W 65 KT 24HR VT 14/0000Z 30.8N 62.8W 60 KT 36HR VT 14/1200Z 32.0N 63.2W 60 KT 48HR VT 15/0000Z 33.2N 63.2W 60 KT 72HR VT 16/0000Z 35.5N 61.5W 55 KT 96HR VT 17/0000Z 35.5N 58.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 18/0000Z 34.5N 55.0W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER KNABB This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 13 00:45:39 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6D5jdn8019173 for ; Sun, 13 Jul 2008 00:45:39 -0500 Message-Id: <200807130545.m6D5jdn8019173@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 00:44:14 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 05:45:39 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 130540 TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE BERTHA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 40A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 200 AM AST SUN JUL 13 2008 ..BERTHA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. AT 200 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.5 WEST OR ABOUT 220 MILES... 350 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. BERTHA IS CURRENTLY NEARLY STATIONARY. A VERY SLOW MOTION GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO RESUME ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE ON MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PASS NOT FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALTHOUGH THE MOTION COULD BE ERRATIC AT TIMES AND COULD BRING THE CENTER OF BERTHA CLOSER TO BERMUDA THAN THE FORECAST TRACK INDICATES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BERTHA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE THRESHOLD BETWEEN HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES. LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OUTER BANDS OF BERTHA COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN BERMUDA OF 2 TO 4 INCHES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REPEATING THE 200 AM AST POSITION...29.8 N...62.5 W. MOVEMENT... STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 13 01:00:58 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6D60wn8019220 for ; Sun, 13 Jul 2008 01:00:58 -0500 Message-Id: <200807130600.m6D60wn8019220@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 00:59:33 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 06:00:58 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 130545 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 220 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 13 03:48:56 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6D8mun8019646 for ; Sun, 13 Jul 2008 03:48:56 -0500 Message-Id: <200807130848.m6D8mun8019646@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 03:47:29 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 08:48:56 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 130831 TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 41 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 500 AM AST SUN JUL 13 2008 ..BERTHA REMAINS STATIONARY...COULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM TODAY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.5 WEST OR ABOUT 220 MILES... 355 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. BERTHA IS CURRENTLY NEARLY STATIONARY. A DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PASS NOT FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALTHOUGH THE MOTION COULD BE ERRATIC AT TIMES AND COULD BRING THE CENTER OF BERTHA CLOSER TO BERMUDA THAN THE FORECAST TRACK INDICATES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BERTHA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. A SLIGHT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND BERTHA COULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES. LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OUTER BANDS OF BERTHA COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN BERMUDA OF 2 TO 4 INCHES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...29.8 N...62.5 W. MOVEMENT... STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 13 03:50:59 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6D8oxn8019657 for ; Sun, 13 Jul 2008 03:50:59 -0500 Message-Id: <200807130850.m6D8oxn8019657@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 03:49:33 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 08:50:59 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 130848 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 448 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161- 131330- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON- JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN- CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL- IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE- DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES... CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY... DAWSON...ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTER...ASHBURN... TIFTON...FITZGERALD...OCILLA...DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY... COLQUITT...NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM...MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS... NASHVILLE...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO...THOMASVILLE... QUITMAN...VALDOSTA...LAKELAND 448 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008 /348 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 9 AM EDT (8 AM CDT)...AREAS OF FOG WILL COVER MUCH OF THE TRI-STATE REGION. VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 3 MILES WILL BE COMMON ..WHILE DENSE FOG OR VISIBILITIES DOWN TO ONE-HALF MILE OR BELOW WILL OCCUR IN SELECTED SPOTS. MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WHEN DRIVING. USE LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO ARRIVE AT YOUR DESTINATION. $$ BLOCK This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 13 04:04:15 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6D94Fn8019712 for ; Sun, 13 Jul 2008 04:04:15 -0500 Message-Id: <200807130904.m6D94Fn8019712@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 04:02:48 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 09:04:16 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT42 KNHC 130854 TCDAT2 HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 41 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 500 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008 THE CENTER OF BERTHA HAS BECOME MORE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS MORNING. INFRARED IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM IS DRIFTING SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...A COUPLE OF RECENT AMSU MICROWAVE OVERPASSES SUGGEST THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NORTH OF THE CENTER SEEN IN THE IR IMAGERY...POSSIBLY DUE TO THE ONSET OF NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL POSITION IS AN AVERAGE OF LOCATIONS FROM THE IR AND MICROWAVE DATA. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND 55 KT FROM SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT...BUT THIS COULD BE GENEROUS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS STATIONARY. LARGE-SCALE MODEL ANALYSES SHOW THAT BERTHA IS EMBEDDED IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE ABOUT TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THIS COMBINATION OF FEATURES SHOULD KEEP BERTHA NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 12 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF BERTHA AND A MID/UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AFTER 72 HR...A DEEP-LAYER LOW FORMING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL LIKELY STEER BERTHA EASTWARD OR EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN BOTH THE DIRECTION AND SPEED OF MOTION. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DURING THE FIRST 72 HR...AND EVENTUALLY WINDS UP AT THE 5 DAY POSITION FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE NEW TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF. BERTHA HAS ESSENTIALLY BEEN STATIONARY FOR 24 HR...AND IT IS LIKELY UPWELLING COLDER WATER UNDERNEATH IT. THIS SHOULD CAUSE A WEAKENING TREND AS LONG AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS STATIONARY. WHEN BERTHA STARTS MOVING...THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES IT OVER COOLER WATER AND INTO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DESPITE THESE ISSUES...THE GFDL AND HWRF MAINTAIN BERTHA AS A HURRICANE FOR 5 DAYS...WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS WEAKENING TO 35 KT BY 5 DAYS. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST COMPROMISES BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES...CALLING FOR BERTHA TO WEAKEN TO 50 KT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/0900Z 29.8N 62.5W 65 KT 12HR VT 13/1800Z 30.1N 62.8W 60 KT 24HR VT 14/0600Z 30.8N 63.2W 60 KT 36HR VT 14/1800Z 32.0N 63.6W 60 KT 48HR VT 15/0600Z 33.4N 63.5W 55 KT 72HR VT 16/0600Z 35.5N 62.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 17/0600Z 35.5N 59.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 18/0600Z 34.5N 55.0W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 13 04:34:04 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6D9Y3n8024148 for ; Sun, 13 Jul 2008 04:34:03 -0500 Message-Id: <200807130934.m6D9Y3n8024148@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 04:32:37 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 09:34:04 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 130932 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 531 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161- 131315- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON- JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN- CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL- IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE- DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES... CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY... DAWSON...ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTER...ASHBURN... TIFTON...FITZGERALD...OCILLA...DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY... COLQUITT...NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM...MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS... NASHVILLE...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO...THOMASVILLE... QUITMAN...VALDOSTA...LAKELAND 531 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008 /431 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 9 AM EDT (8 AM CDT)...FOG WILL COVER MUCH OF THE TRI- STATE REGION. VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 3 MILES WILL BE COMMON ...WHILE DENSE FOG OR VISIBILITIES DOWN TO ONE-HALF MILE OR BELOW WILL OCCUR IN SELECTED SPOTS. MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WHEN DRIVING. USE LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO ARRIVE AT YOUR DESTINATION. $$ BLOCK This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 13 04:49:15 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6D9nFn8024183 for ; Sun, 13 Jul 2008 04:49:15 -0500 Message-Id: <200807130949.m6D9nFn8024183@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 04:47:48 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Hazardous Weather Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 09:49:15 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FLUS42 KTAE 130945 HWOTAE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 545 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161- GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-140945- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON- JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN- CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL- IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE- DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- 545 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008 /445 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2008/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA... SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT... A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL EDGE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND NORTH FLORIDA TODAY. DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL LESSEN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE AREAS. AREAS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT CAN EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING. DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MONDAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION BEFORE DISSIPATING ON WEDNESDAY. DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES TO THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THEN THE BERMUDA RIDGE WILL BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DAILY SEA BREEZES. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY...HOWEVER SPOTTERS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR STRONG STORMS WHICH MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP. $$ JAMSKI This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 13 05:06:25 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6DA6Pn8024230 for ; Sun, 13 Jul 2008 05:06:25 -0500 Message-Id: <200807131006.m6DA6Pn8024230@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 05:04:58 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Hazardous Weather Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 10:06:25 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FLUS42 KTAE 131002 HWOTAE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 602 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161- GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-141015- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON- JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN- CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL- IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE- DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- 602 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008 /502 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2008/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA... SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT... AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE TO BLANKET THE TRI-STATE AREA EARLY... SLOWLY LIFTING THROUGH 9 OR 10 AM EDT. OTHERWISE...A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL EDGE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND NORTH FLORIDA TODAY. DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL LESSEN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE AREAS. AREAS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT CAN EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING. DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MONDAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION BEFORE DISSIPATING ON WEDNESDAY. DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES TO THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THEN THE BERMUDA RIDGE WILL BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DAILY SEA BREEZES. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY...HOWEVER SPOTTERS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR STRONG STORMS WHICH MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP. $$ BLOCK/JAMSKI This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 13 05:26:49 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6DAQnn8024476 for ; Sun, 13 Jul 2008 05:26:49 -0500 Message-Id: <200807131026.m6DAQnn8024476@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 05:25:22 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Hazardous Weather Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 10:26:49 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FLUS44 KMOB 131021 HWOMOB HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 520 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2008 ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078- 079-141200- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY- COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY- GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- 520 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2008 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND THE GULF COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA. DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FOR AREAS ALONG THE ALABAMA...MISSISSIPPI BORDER. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH. ALL THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 MPH WITH A STRONG OUTGOING TIDE THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY...BUT AS THE FRONT STALL JUST OFF THE COAST BY TUESDAY...A DRIER AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY LATE NEXT WEEK. SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 13 05:41:01 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6DAf1n8024511 for ; Sun, 13 Jul 2008 05:41:01 -0500 Message-Id: <200807131041.m6DAf1n8024511@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 05:39:34 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 10:41:02 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 131038 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 638 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161- 131315- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON- JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN- CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL- IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE- DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES... CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY... DAWSON...ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTER...ASHBURN... TIFTON...FITZGERALD...OCILLA...DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY... COLQUITT...NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM...MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS... NASHVILLE...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO...THOMASVILLE... QUITMAN...VALDOSTA...LAKELAND 638 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008 /538 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 9 AM EDT (8 AM CDT)...FOG WILL COVER MUCH OF THE TRI- STATE REGION. VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 3 MILES WILL BE COMMON ...WHILE DENSE FOG OR VISIBILITIES DOWN TO ONE-HALF MILE OR BELOW WILL OCCUR IN SELECTED SPOTS. MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WHEN DRIVING. USE LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO ARRIVE AT YOUR DESTINATION. $$ BLOCK This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 13 06:32:02 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6DBW2n8024650 for ; Sun, 13 Jul 2008 06:32:02 -0500 Message-Id: <200807131132.m6DBW2n8024650@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 06:30:35 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 11:32:02 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 131128 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 628 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2008 ALZ053>064-FLZ001>006-131300- CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON- UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN- INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL... CAMDEN...PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN... GREENVILLE...LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON... EAST BREWTON...ANDALUSIA...OPP...PRICHARD...SARALAND... BAY MINETTE...TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE... FOLEY...SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA... FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY... MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW... WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE... EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO 628 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2008 NOW... ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA JUST TO THE EAST OF THE BRANTLEY AND ANDALUSIA AREAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 12 MPH. AS TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE 80S AND THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 13 06:52:12 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6DBqCn8024703 for ; Sun, 13 Jul 2008 06:52:12 -0500 Message-Id: <200807131152.m6DBqCn8024703@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 06:50:45 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 11:52:13 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 131135 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERTHA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 41A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 800 AM AST SUN JUL 13 2008 ..BERTHA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.5 WEST OR ABOUT 220 MILES...355 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. BERTHA IS CURRENTLY NEARLY STATIONARY. A DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PASS NOT FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALTHOUGH THE MOTION COULD BE ERRATIC AT TIMES AND COULD BRING THE CENTER OF BERTHA CLOSER TO BERMUDA THAN THE FORECAST TRACK INDICATES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...115 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A SLIGHT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES. LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OUTER BANDS OF BERTHA COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN BERMUDA OF 2 TO 4 INCHES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...29.8 N...62.5 W. MOVEMENT... STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 13 06:52:13 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6DBqDn8024706 for ; Sun, 13 Jul 2008 06:52:13 -0500 Message-Id: <200807131152.m6DBqDn8024706@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 06:50:45 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 11:52:13 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 131145 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY-DOWNGRADED TROPICAL STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 220 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 1600 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK FRONTAL LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS MOVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 13 07:29:01 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6DCT1n8024808 for ; Sun, 13 Jul 2008 07:29:01 -0500 Message-Id: <200807131229.m6DCT1n8024808@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 07:27:33 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 12:29:01 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 131227 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 726 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2008 ALZ053>064-FLZ001>006-131400- CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON- UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN- INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL... CAMDEN...PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN... GREENVILLE...LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON... EAST BREWTON...ANDALUSIA...OPP...PRICHARD...SARALAND... BAY MINETTE...TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE... FOLEY...SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA... FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY... MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW... WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE... EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO 726 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2008 NOW... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA JUST TO THE EAST OF THE LUVERNE...BRANTLEY AND ANDALUSIA AREAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 12 MPH. AS TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S AND THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. PERSONS PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TODAY SHOULD BE READY TO MOVE INDOORS QUICKLY AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...THEN YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 13 08:16:51 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6DDGpn8024925 for ; Sun, 13 Jul 2008 08:16:51 -0500 Message-Id: <200807131316.m6DDGpn8024925@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 08:15:24 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 13:16:52 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 131315 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 915 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007-009-131500- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-HOLMES- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...HUDSON...BONIFAY 815 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2008 NOW... THROUGH 1000 AM CDT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING SOUTH AT 15 TO 20 MPH. MOST OF THE COVERAGE IS CURRENTLY OVER COFFEE COUNTY. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 13 09:40:10 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6DEeAn8025141 for ; Sun, 13 Jul 2008 09:40:10 -0500 Message-Id: <200807131440.m6DEeAn8025141@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 09:38:42 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 14:40:11 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 131435 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 42 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 AM AST SUN JUL 13 2008 ..BERTHA BEGINNING TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.0 WEST OR ABOUT 180 MILES...290 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PASS NOT FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...ALTHOUGH THE MOTION COULD BE ERRATIC AT TIMES AND COULD BRING THE CENTER OF BERTHA CLOSER TO BERMUDA THAN THE FORECAST TRACK INDICATES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL CHECK BERTHA LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES. LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OUTER BANDS OF BERTHA COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN BERMUDA OF 2 TO 4 INCHES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...30.2 N...63.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 13 09:40:11 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6DEeBn8025144 for ; Sun, 13 Jul 2008 09:40:11 -0500 Message-Id: <200807131440.m6DEeBn8025144@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 09:38:42 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 14:40:11 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT42 KNHC 131435 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 42 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH BERTHA HAS DECREASED EXCEPT WITHIN A BAND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...BERTHA STILL HAS A LARGE AND VIGOROUS LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KNOTS AND A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL GIVE US ADDITIONAL INTENSITY AND WIND RADII INFORMATION LATER TODAY. SHEAR AND COOL WATER SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING...BUT MOST OF THE GLOBAL AND INTENSITY MODELS EITHER STRENGTHEN OR KEEP BERTHA WITH THE SAME INTENSITY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS OPTED FOR AN INITIAL WEAKENING AND THEN FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODELS CALLING FOR NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY. BERTHA HAS BEEN MEANDERING FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS OR SO...BUT NOW APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT ABOUT 2 TO 3 KNOTS. AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DEVELOPS AND A TROUGH APPROACHES...THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE ON A SLOW NORTHWESTERLY AND THEN NORTHERLY TRACK FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BE STEERED SLOWLY EASTWARD. HOWEVER...THIS PROCESS WILL SLOW AND TROPICAL CYCLONE BERTHA COULD BE WITH US FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS AS INDICATED BY GLOBAL MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/1500Z 30.2N 63.0W 55 KT 12HR VT 14/0000Z 30.4N 63.0W 50 KT 24HR VT 14/1200Z 31.5N 63.5W 50 KT 36HR VT 15/0000Z 33.0N 63.6W 50 KT 48HR VT 15/1200Z 34.5N 63.0W 50 KT 72HR VT 16/1200Z 36.0N 61.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 17/1200Z 36.0N 58.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 18/1200Z 35.0N 54.0W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 13 09:59:37 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6DExan8025420 for ; Sun, 13 Jul 2008 09:59:36 -0500 Message-Id: <200807131459.m6DExan8025420@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 09:58:08 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 14:59:37 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 131457 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1057 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>011-GAZ120>123-142-131700- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-QUITMAN-CLAY-RANDOLPH-CALHOUN-EARLY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES... CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY... DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY 1057 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008 /957 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 1200 PM CDT (100 PM EDT)...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...AND THE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING SOUTH AT 15 TO 20 MPH. MOST OF THE COVERAGE IS CURRENTLY OVER COFFEE AND DALE COUNTIES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 13 11:43:27 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6DGhRn8025908 for ; Sun, 13 Jul 2008 11:43:27 -0500 Message-Id: <200807131643.m6DGhRn8025908@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 11:41:58 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 16:43:27 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 131640 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 1140 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2008 ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-MSZ067-075-076-078-079- 131845- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY- COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-WAYNE-PERRY- GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM... MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN... PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE... LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON... ANDALUSIA...OPP...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE... TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY... SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA... FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY... MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW... WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE... EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT... NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE 1140 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2008 NOW... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION WAS WELL INLAND GENERALLY FROM JUST NORTH OF GREENVILLE STRETCHING WEST TO JUST NORTH OF GROVE HILL IN ALABAMA. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST AND SOUTH CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING THROUGH 130 PM. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE COAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG. STAYED TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS IF THREATENING WEATHER IS APPROACHING YOUR AREA. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 13 12:55:48 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6DHtmn8026253 for ; Sun, 13 Jul 2008 12:55:48 -0500 Message-Id: <200807131755.m6DHtmn8026253@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 12:54:19 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 17:55:48 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 131753 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 1245 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2008 ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-MSZ067-075-076-078-079- 132200- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY- COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-WAYNE-PERRY- GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM... MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN... PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE... LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON... ANDALUSIA...OPP...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE... TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY... SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA... FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY... MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW... WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE... EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT... NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE 1245 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2008 NOW... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND MOVE SOUTHWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION WAS GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE STRETCHING FROM ANDALUSIA ALABAMA TO LUCEDALE MISSISSIPPI. OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...MOSTLY EAST OF NAVARRE AND MOVE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIND GUSTS FROM 35 TO 45 MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING THROUGH 230 PM. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONGER LATER TODAY. STAYED TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS IF THREATENING WEATHER IS APPROACHING YOUR AREA. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 13 13:05:55 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6DI5tn8026282 for ; Sun, 13 Jul 2008 13:05:55 -0500 Message-Id: <200807131805.m6DI5tn8026282@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 13:04:25 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 18:05:55 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 131803 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 202 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>011-GAZ120>126-142>144-155-132000- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-QUITMAN-CLAY-RANDOLPH-CALHOUN-TERRELL- DOUGHERTY-LEE-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-SEMINOLE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES... CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY... DAWSON...ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...DOUGLASVILLE... BLAKELY...COLQUITT...NEWTON...DONALSONVILLE 202 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008 /102 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 400 PM EDT (300 PM CDT)...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THESE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY JUST NORTHWEST OF COFFEE COUNTY MOVING SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND GUSTY WINDS. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 13 13:42:39 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6DIgdn8030521 for ; Sun, 13 Jul 2008 13:42:39 -0500 Message-Id: <200807131842.m6DIgdn8030521@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 13:41:10 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Special Weather Statement X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 18:42:39 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WWUS84 KMOB 131840 SPSMOB SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 139 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2008 ALZ056>060-062-064-FLZ001-003-131945- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-INLAND ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER BALDWIN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANDALUSIA...BAY MINETTE...BREWTON... EVERGREEN AND LUVERNE... 139 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2008 ..STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING DETECTED OVER ESCAMBIA... COVINGTON...CONECUH...BUTLER...CRENSHAW...BALDWIN AND SANTA ROSA COUNTIES... AT 137 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5 MILES EAST OF LUVERNE TO 3 MILES SOUTH OF DOUGLASVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 13 MPH. THESE LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND... SOUTH...PHILLIPSVILLE...WAWBEEK...JOHNSONVILLE...RED LEVEL... KIRKLAND...PAUL AND OSAKA THROUGH 245 PM CDT. THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG COULD DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED. $$ WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 13 14:09:06 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6DJ96n8030659 for ; Sun, 13 Jul 2008 14:09:06 -0500 Message-Id: <200807131909.m6DJ96n8030659@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 14:07:37 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 19:09:07 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 131906 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 206 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2008 ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-MSZ067-075-076-078-079- 132300- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY- COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-WAYNE-PERRY- GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM... MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN... PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE... LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON... ANDALUSIA...OPP...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE... TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY... SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA... FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY... MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW... WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE... EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT... NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE 206 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2008 NOW... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND MOVE SOUTHWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION WAS GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE STRETCHING FROM ANDALUSIA TO MOBILE IN ALABAMA. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS. OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...MOSTLY EAST OF NAVARRE AND MOVE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THE MAIN THREAT WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIND GUSTS FROM 40 TO 50 MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING THROUGH 400 PM. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONGER LATER TODAY. STAYED TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS IF THREATENING WEATHER IS APPROACHING YOUR AREA. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 13 14:35:29 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6DJZTn8030810 for ; Sun, 13 Jul 2008 14:35:29 -0500 Message-Id: <200807131935.m6DJZTn8030810@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 14:33:59 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Significant Weather Alert X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 19:35:29 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WWUS82 KTAE 131931 SPSTAE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 330 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008 ALZ065-066-132015- COFFEE-DALE- 230 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2008 ..SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR COFFEE AND NORTHWEST DALE COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA... * UNTIL 315 PM CDT AT 229 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES NORTH OF TROY TO BRANTLEY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR... ELBA BY 250 PM CDT. NEW BROCKTON BY 305 PM CDT. UP TO DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. ALSO...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. RELAY REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...YOU MAY CONTACT THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. $$ 22-BARRY WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 13 14:51:46 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6DJpkn8030896 for ; Sun, 13 Jul 2008 14:51:46 -0500 Message-Id: <200807131951.m6DJpkn8030896@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 14:50:17 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 19:51:47 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 131949 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 349 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>012-GAZ120>126-142>144-155-GMZ750-770-132200- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-QUITMAN-CLAY-RANDOLPH-CALHOUN- TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-SEMINOLE- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES... CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY... DAWSON...ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...DOUGLASVILLE... BLAKELY...COLQUITT...NEWTON...DONALSONVILLE 349 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008 /249 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 6 PM EDT (5 PM CDT)...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVEL SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH AND MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...PARTS OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT NEAR SHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS. THE GREATEST THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. $$ RUBIO This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 13 14:59:02 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6DJx2n8030937 for ; Sun, 13 Jul 2008 14:59:02 -0500 Message-Id: <200807131959.m6DJx2n8030937@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 14:57:32 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Special Weather Statement X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 19:59:03 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WWUS84 KMOB 131956 SPSMOB SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 256 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2008 ALZ060-064-FLZ002>006-132100- COVINGTON-INLAND OKALOOSA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-LOWER BALDWIN-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRESTVIEW AND PENSACOLA... 256 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2008 ..STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING DETECTED OVER COVINGTON... BALDWIN...OKALOOSA...ESCAMBIA AND SANTA ROSA COUNTIES... AT 250 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5 MILES SOUTH OF LAUREL HILL TO 3 MILES WEST OF TURKEY BRANCH...MOVING SOUTH AT 34 MPH. THESE LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND... CRESTVIEW...FOLEY...MIFLIN...FERRY PASS...OAK...LILLIAN...PENSACOLA AND WEST PENSACOLA THROUGH 400 PM CDT. THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG COULD DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED. $$ WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 13 15:17:07 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6DKH7n8031039 for ; Sun, 13 Jul 2008 15:17:07 -0500 Message-Id: <200807132017.m6DKH7n8031039@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 15:15:37 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Significant Weather Alert X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 20:17:07 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WWUS82 KTAE 132012 SPSTAE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 412 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008 ALZ065>069-132100- COFFEE-DALE-GENEVA-HENRY-HOUSTON- 312 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2008 ..SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA... HENRY AND HOUSTON COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA... * UNTIL 400 PM CDT AT 310 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF OZARK TO 19 MILES SOUTH OF ELBA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR... OZARK BY 325 PM CDT. DALEVILLE BY 330 PM CDT. NEWTON BY 335 PM CDT. MIDLAND CITY BY 345 PM CDT. HARTFORD BY 350 PM CDT. SLOCOMB BY 355 PM CDT. UP TO DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. ALSO...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. RELAY REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...YOU MAY CONTACT THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. $$ 22-BARRY This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 13 15:29:38 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6DKTcn8031109 for ; Sun, 13 Jul 2008 15:29:38 -0500 Message-Id: <200807132029.m6DKTcn8031109@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 15:28:08 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Local Storm Report X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 20:29:38 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) NWUS54 KMOB 132024 LSRMOB PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 324 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2008 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0322 PM HAIL BAYOU LA BATRE 30.40N 88.25W 07/13/2008 E0.50 INCH MOBILE AL BROADCAST MEDIA WKRG-TV RELAYED A REPORT OF DIME SIZED HAIL IN BAYOU LA BATRE. && $$ DL This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 13 15:30:40 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6DKUen8031126 for ; Sun, 13 Jul 2008 15:30:40 -0500 Message-Id: <200807132030.m6DKUen8031126@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 15:29:10 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Severe Thunderstorm Warning X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 20:30:41 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WUUS54 KMOB 132028 RRA SVRMOB FLC091-132130- /O.NEW.KMOB.SV.W.0227.080713T2028Z-080713T2130Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING...CORRECTED... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 328 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2008 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN OKALOOSA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...FORT WALTON BEACH...DESTIN... * UNTIL 430 PM CDT * AT 322 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF VALPARAISO...OR ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTH OF CRESTVIEW...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... DESTIN BY 335 PM CDT... IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. LAT...LON 3040 8651 3041 8651 3041 8663 3062 8672 3072 8654 3047 8642 3050 8645 3043 8655 3044 8658 3042 8657 3041 8651 3043 8646 3042 8640 3039 8639 TIME...MOT...LOC 2028Z 328DEG 53KT 3054 8653 $$ WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 13 15:31:18 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6DKVIn8031135 for ; Sun, 13 Jul 2008 15:31:18 -0500 Message-Id: <200807132031.m6DKVIn8031135@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 15:29:48 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 20:31:18 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 132026 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 43 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 500 PM AST SUN JUL 13 2008 ..BERTHA STILL A VIGOROUS TROPICAL STORM... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.1 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES...285 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. BERTHA HAS BEEN MEANDERING SINCE YESTERDAY BUT IT APPEARS THAT A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/HR SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN TONIGHT. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PASS NOT FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OUTER BANDS OF BERTHA COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN BERMUDA OF 2 TO 4 INCHES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...30.2 N...63.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 13 15:31:18 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6DKVIn8031138 for ; Sun, 13 Jul 2008 15:31:18 -0500 Message-Id: <200807132031.m6DKVIn8031138@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 15:29:48 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 20:31:18 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT42 KNHC 132027 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 43 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 500 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008 AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST FINISHED TWO PASSES ACROSS BERTHA. FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...SFMR AND DROPSONDES INDICATE THAT BERTHA CONTINUES AS A 55 KT TROPICAL STORM. HIGH RESOLUTION SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A VIGOROUS LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE BUT DEEP CONVECTION IS VERY LIMITED. SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE RESTRENGTHENING WHILE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE MAINTAIN BERTHA WITH BASICALLY THE SAME INTENSITY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS BERTHA AS A 50 KT CYCLONE THROUGH FIVE DAYS....AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. SOME INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR IF BERTHA BEGINS TO ACQUIRE EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. BERTHA FOOLED ME ONCE AGAIN. IT APPEARS THAT BERTHA BEGAN A NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT EARLIER TODAY BUT...IN FACT...IT WAS MOVING IN CIRCLES AND IT COULD BE DOING ONE OF THESE LOOPS AGAIN. MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH IS NOW MORE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...INSISTS THAT THE NORTHWARD MOTION SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BE STEERED SLOWLY EASTWARD. THE CIRCULATION SHOULD THEN EXPAND WHILE GRADUALLY ACQUIRING EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. ONE WAY OR ANOTHER IT APPEARS THAT BERTHA COULD BE WITH US FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/2100Z 30.2N 63.1W 55 KT 12HR VT 14/0600Z 30.5N 63.3W 50 KT 24HR VT 14/1800Z 32.0N 63.8W 50 KT 36HR VT 15/0600Z 33.5N 63.7W 50 KT 48HR VT 15/1800Z 35.0N 62.5W 50 KT 72HR VT 16/1800Z 35.5N 60.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 17/1800Z 35.0N 57.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 18/1800Z 35.0N 54.0W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 13 15:34:26 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6DKYQn8031175 for ; Sun, 13 Jul 2008 15:34:26 -0500 Message-Id: <200807132034.m6DKYQn8031175@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 15:32:57 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Severe Thunderstorm Warning X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 20:34:27 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WUUS54 KMOB 132032 SVRMOB ALC003-FLC033-132130- /O.NEW.KMOB.SV.W.0228.080713T2032Z-080713T2130Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 332 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2008 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL ESCAMBIA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA... SOUTHEASTERN BALDWIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA... * UNTIL 430 PM CDT * AT 325 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS NEAR LILLIAN...OR ABOUT 15 MILES WEST OF PENSACOLA...MOVING SOUTH AT 26 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE INDICATED COUNTY. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. LAT...LON 3029 8754 3032 8753 3032 8752 3031 8750 3033 8750 3034 8748 3034 8750 3033 8752 3043 8750 3042 8737 3031 8736 3028 8752 TIME...MOT...LOC 2032Z 003DEG 22KT 3033 8745 $$ WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 13 15:52:51 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6DKqpn8031272 for ; Sun, 13 Jul 2008 15:52:51 -0500 Message-Id: <200807132052.m6DKqpn8031272@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 15:51:21 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 20:52:51 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 132044 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 444 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>012-GAZ120>126-142>144-155-GMZ750-770-132245- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-QUITMAN-CLAY-RANDOLPH-CALHOUN- TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-SEMINOLE- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES... CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY... DAWSON...ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...DOUGLASVILLE... BLAKELY...COLQUITT...NEWTON...DONALSONVILLE 444 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008 /344 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 7 PM EDT (6 PM CDT)...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVEL SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH THROUGH SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...PARTS OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT NEAR SHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS. SOME STORMS MAY DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT TWO HOURS...WHILE SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG...WITH THE GREATEST THREATS BEING GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. $$ RUBIO This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 13 16:06:00 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6DL60n8031344 for ; Sun, 13 Jul 2008 16:06:00 -0500 Message-Id: <200807132106.m6DL60n8031344@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 16:04:30 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Significant Weather Alert X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 21:06:00 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WWUS82 KTAE 132103 SPSTAE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 502 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008 FLZ007>010-132145- COASTAL WALTON-HOLMES-INLAND WALTON-WASHINGTON- 402 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2008 ..A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR HOLMES...WALTON AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES IN FLORIDA... * UNTIL 445 PM CDT AT 359 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GENEVA...MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR... 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF BONIFAY BY 445 PM CDT. UP TO DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. ALSO...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. RELAY REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...YOU MAY CONTACT THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. $$ 22-BARRY WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 13 16:33:27 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6DLXRn8031494 for ; Sun, 13 Jul 2008 16:33:27 -0500 Message-Id: <200807132133.m6DLXRn8031494@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 16:31:57 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 21:33:27 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 132130 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 430 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2008 ALZ063-064-FLZ002-004-006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-132300- LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA- COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY- COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE... FAIRHOPE...FOLEY...SPANISH FORT...PENSACOLA...FERRY PASS... BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY...MYRTLE GROVE... PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH... NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE...EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO 430 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2008 NOW... A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OFF THE COAST AT AROUND 20 KNOTS THROUGH 6 PM. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CONCENTRATED OVER THE ALABAMA AND WESTERN FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS...BRINGING INCREASED HAZARDS TO MARINERS. THESE STORMS WILL CONTAIN FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING...BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS...LOW VISIBILITIES IN HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS. MARINERS SHOULD STAY TUNED FOR THE VERY LATEST AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE MARINE WARNINGS. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 13 16:33:27 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6DLXRn8031497 for ; Sun, 13 Jul 2008 16:33:27 -0500 Message-Id: <200807132133.m6DLXRn8031497@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 16:31:57 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 21:33:27 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 132130 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 430 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2008 ALZ051>062-FLZ001-003-005-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-132300- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA- INLAND SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM... MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN... PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE... LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON... ANDALUSIA...OPP...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE...CENTURY... FLOMATON...MOLINO...JAY...CRESTVIEW...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON... BEAUMONT...NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS... LUCEDALE 430 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2008 NOW... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG...WILL MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT 20 TO 25 MPH OVER THE REGION THROUGH 6 PM. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTAIN BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL. A FEW STORMS COULD ALSO BECOME BRIEFLY SEVERE. BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN THE CASE THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 13 16:39:39 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6DLddn8031536 for ; Sun, 13 Jul 2008 16:39:39 -0500 Message-Id: <200807132139.m6DLddn8031536@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 16:38:09 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Local Storm Report X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 21:39:40 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) NWUS54 KMOB 132136 LSRMOB PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 436 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2008 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0300 PM TSTM WND DMG GRAND BAY 30.48N 88.34W 07/13/2008 MOBILE AL PUBLIC CABLE LINES AND TREE LIMBS DOWN IN GRAND BAY. 0310 PM LIGHTNING BAGDAD 30.60N 87.03W 07/13/2008 SANTA ROSA FL EMERGENCY MNGR LIGHTNING STRIKE CAUSING STRUCTURE FIRE AT 3950 PLANTATION COVE CT. IN BAGDAD. 0310 PM LIGHTNING 4 S MILTON 30.56N 87.03W 07/13/2008 SANTA ROSA FL EMERGENCY MNGR LIGHTNING STRIKE TO TREE CAUSING BRUSH FIRE WHICH BURNED 3 ACRES. && $$ GJ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 13 16:48:38 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6DLmcn8031590 for ; Sun, 13 Jul 2008 16:48:38 -0500 Message-Id: <200807132148.m6DLmcn8031590@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 16:47:08 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Significant Weather Alert X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 21:48:39 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WWUS82 KTAE 132145 SPSTAE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 544 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008 FLZ008-010-012-132230- BAY-COASTAL WALTON-WASHINGTON- 444 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2008 ..A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST WALTON... NORTHWEST BAY...AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON COUNTIES IN FLORIDA... * UNTIL 530 PM CDT AT 443 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF VERNON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 13 MPH. UP TO DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. RELAY REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...YOU MAY CONTACT THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. $$ 22-BARRY This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 13 16:48:39 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6DLmdn8031593 for ; Sun, 13 Jul 2008 16:48:39 -0500 Message-Id: <200807132148.m6DLmdn8031593@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 16:47:09 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 21:48:39 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 132146 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 546 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>018-026-027-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>159-GMZ750- 755-770-140000- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON- JEFFERSON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-QUITMAN-CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY- LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL- COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM-WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES... CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY... DAWSON...ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTER...ASHBURN... TIFTON...FITZGERALD...OCILLA...DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY... COLQUITT...NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM...MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS... NASHVILLE...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO...THOMASVILLE... QUITMAN 546 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008 /446 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 8 PM EDT (7 PM CDT)...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVEL SOUTHEAST AROUND 20 MPH THROUGHOUT SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...MOST OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG AND PRODUCE NEARLY CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SMALL HAIL. AREAS WITH PROLONGED PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING...AND BOATERS MAY ENCOUNTER LOCALLY CHOPPY WATERS IN AND AROUND THE STORMS. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM AS EXISTING STORMS AND GUST FRONTS COLLIDE. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 13 17:02:10 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6DM2An8031675 for ; Sun, 13 Jul 2008 17:02:10 -0500 Message-Id: <200807132202.m6DM2An8031675@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 17:00:40 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Special Weather Statement X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 22:02:11 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WWUS84 KMOB 132159 SPSMOB SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 458 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2008 ALZ059-FLZ001-132230- ESCAMBIA-INLAND ESCAMBIA- 458 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2008 ..A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS BEING DETECTED OVER SOUTHWEST ESCAMBIA COUNTY ALABAMA MOVING INTO NORTHWEST ESCAMBIA COUNTY FLORIDA... AT 458 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF NOKOMIS...MOVING SOUTH AT 17 MPH. THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND... NOKOMIS THROUGH 530 PM CDT. THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG COULD DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 13 18:04:45 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6DN4jvN002161 for ; Sun, 13 Jul 2008 18:04:45 -0500 Message-Id: <200807132304.m6DN4jvN002161@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 18:04:33 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Local Storm Report X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 23:04:46 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) NWUS54 KMOB 132303 LSRMOB PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 603 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2008 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0520 PM LIGHTNING 10 NW NAVARRE 30.51N 86.98W 07/13/2008 SANTA ROSA FL EMERGENCY MNGR LIGHTNING STRUCK RESIDENCE AT 3130 AUBURN PKWY., MIDWAY FL. HOMEOWNER STRUCK...REFUSED TREATMENT. SMOKE REPORTED IN ATTIC. && $$ GJ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 13 18:47:06 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6DNl6vN002507 for ; Sun, 13 Jul 2008 18:47:06 -0500 Message-Id: <200807132347.m6DNl6vN002507@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 18:46:54 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 23:47:07 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 132346 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 746 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008 FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>127-142>147-155>160-GMZ730-750-755- 765-770-140200- INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY- CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY- WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL- DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK- SEMINOLE-DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES... CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY... DAWSON...ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTER... DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY...COLQUITT...NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM... MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO... THOMASVILLE...QUITMAN...VALDOSTA 746 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008 /646 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 10 PM EDT (9 PM CDT)...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVEL SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. SOME STORMS MAY DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT TWO HOURS...WHILE OTHERS MAY COLLIDE TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL STORMS. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY WINDS. AREAS RECEIVING PROLONGED PERIODS OF RAIN MAY EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING...WHILE BOATERS MAY ENCOUNTER LOCALLY CHOPPY WATERS IN AND AROUND THE STORMS. $$ RUBIO This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 13 18:48:25 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6DNmPvN002525 for ; Sun, 13 Jul 2008 18:48:25 -0500 Message-Id: <200807132348.m6DNmPvN002525@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 18:48:13 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 23:48:26 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 132343 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERTHA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 43A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 800 PM AST SUN JUL 13 2008 ..BERTHA DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.1 WEST OR ABOUT 170 MILES...275 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. BERTHA HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/HR DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PASS NOT FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OUTER BANDS OF BERTHA COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN BERMUDA OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...30.3 N...63.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 13 19:02:56 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6E02uvN002641 for ; Sun, 13 Jul 2008 19:02:56 -0500 Message-Id: <200807140002.m6E02uvN002641@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 19:02:43 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Local Storm Report X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 14 Jul 2008 00:02:56 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) NWUS52 KTAE 140000 LSRTAE PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 800 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0635 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 W YOUNGSTOWN 30.37N 85.52W 07/13/2008 BAY FL LAW ENFORCEMENT TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN. 0651 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 S QUINCY 30.51N 84.58W 07/13/2008 GADSDEN FL LAW ENFORCEMENT SEVERAL TREES DOWN ALONG INTERSTATE 10. && $$ FOURNIER This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 13 19:03:41 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6E03fvN002650 for ; Sun, 13 Jul 2008 19:03:41 -0500 Message-Id: <200807140003.m6E03fvN002650@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 19:03:29 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 14 Jul 2008 00:03:42 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 132352 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 170 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THE TROPICAL WAVE AND BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. THIS SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 13 19:30:22 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6E0UMvN002882 for ; Sun, 13 Jul 2008 19:30:22 -0500 Message-Id: <200807140030.m6E0UMvN002882@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 19:30:10 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 14 Jul 2008 00:30:22 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 140029 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 729 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2008 ALZ057-058-140200- BUTLER-CRENSHAW- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GREENVILLE...LUVERNE...BRANTLEY 729 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2008 NOW... A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT COMMUNITIES ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM LUVERNE TO GREENVILLE TO MONTERY ALABAMA THROUGH 9 PM. STORMS WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST AT 25 TO 30 MPH. THE MAIN THREATS IN STORMS THIS EVENING WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH. LOOK NORTH FOR DARKENING SKIES AND BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN THE CASE THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 13 19:50:33 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6E0oXvN003049 for ; Sun, 13 Jul 2008 19:50:33 -0500 Message-Id: <200807140050.m6E0oXvN003049@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 19:50:21 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 14 Jul 2008 00:50:34 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 140048 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 848 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008 FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>127-142>147-155>160-GMZ730-750-755- 765-770-775-140300- INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY- CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY- WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL- DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK- SEMINOLE-DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES... CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY... DAWSON...ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTER... DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY...COLQUITT...NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM... MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO... THOMASVILLE...QUITMAN...VALDOSTA 848 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008 /748 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 11 PM EDT (10 PM CDT)...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL TRAVEL SOUTH AROUND 15 MPH THROUGHOUT SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT WILL DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT TWO HOURS. BOATERS MAY ALSO ENCOUNTER LOCALLY CHOPPY WATERS IN AND AROUND THE STORMS. $$ RUBIO This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 13 20:47:41 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6E1lfvN003405 for ; Sun, 13 Jul 2008 20:47:41 -0500 Message-Id: <200807140147.m6E1lfvN003405@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 20:47:28 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 14 Jul 2008 01:47:41 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 140146 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 946 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161- GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-140400- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON- JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN- CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL- IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE- DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES... CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY... DAWSON...ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTER...ASHBURN... TIFTON...FITZGERALD...OCILLA...DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY... COLQUITT...NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM...MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS... NASHVILLE...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO...THOMASVILLE... QUITMAN...VALDOSTA...LAKELAND 946 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008 /846 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 12 AM EDT (11 PM CDT)...ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH AN OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM WILL TRAVEL SOUTH AROUND 15 MPH THROUGHOUT SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THE SHOWERS WILL CONTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL...AND AN OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE...BUT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT TWO HOURS. $$ RUBIO This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 13 21:51:08 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6E2p8vN003744 for ; Sun, 13 Jul 2008 21:51:08 -0500 Message-Id: <200807140251.m6E2p8vN003744@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 21:50:56 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 14 Jul 2008 02:51:09 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 140249 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1049 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ009>011-GAZ120>126-142>145-155>157-140500- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON- QUITMAN-CLAY-RANDOLPH-CALHOUN-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-EARLY-MILLER- BAKER-MITCHELL-SEMINOLE-DECATUR-GRADY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...HUDSON...BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE... CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA...GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS... GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES...CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON... MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY...DAWSON...ALBANY...LEESBURG... SMITHVILLE...DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY...COLQUITT...NEWTON... CAMILLA...PELHAM...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO 1049 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008 /949 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 1 AM EDT (12 AM CDT)...AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF ALABAMA AND A PORTION OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY 12 AM CDT. $$ BARRY This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 13 21:51:35 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6E2pZvN003756 for ; Sun, 13 Jul 2008 21:51:35 -0500 Message-Id: <200807140251.m6E2pZvN003756@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 21:51:22 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 14 Jul 2008 02:51:35 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 140247 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 44 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 PM AST SUN JUL 13 2008 ..BERTHA STILL DRIFTING BUT EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.1 WEST OR ABOUT 160 MILES...255 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS BERTHA HAS BEEN DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR. A MOTION GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTH AT A SLIGHTLY GREATER FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PASS NOT FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OUTER BANDS OF BERTHA COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN BERMUDA OF 2 TO 4 INCHES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...30.5 N...63.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER KNABB This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 13 22:06:54 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6E36svN003847 for ; Sun, 13 Jul 2008 22:06:54 -0500 Message-Id: <200807140306.m6E36svN003847@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 22:06:41 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 14 Jul 2008 03:06:55 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT42 KNHC 140258 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 44 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008 IT APPEARS THAT BERTHA IS TAPPING LIGHTLY ON THE ACCELERATOR...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 335/3. MOST OF THE MODELS FORECAST A GRADUAL INCREASE IN BERTHA'S FORWARD SPEED WITH A SUBTLE TURN TO THE RIGHT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AROUND A WEAK MID-LEVEL HIGH CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF THE STORM. BY THAT TIME THE MODELS FORECAST BERTHA TO BE NORTH OF THE RIDGE...AND IN BETWEEN A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH NEAR THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST AND A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC. BERTHA AND THE CUTOFF LOW ARE THEN FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH ONE ANOTHER IN A POTENTIALLY COMPLEX MANNER ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...ALTHOUGH A GENERALLY EASTWARD MOTION WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES IS IMPLIED BY THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE UNUSUAL UNDULATIONS IN THE OFFICIAL TRACK BEYOND 48 HOURS ARE SUPPORTED BY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...BUT THE DIPS AND TURNS IN THE MODEL TRACKS ARE A BIT MORE EXTREME THAN SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THERE IS ALSO GREAT DISAGREEMENT IN THE GUIDANCE ON THE FORWARD SPEED OF BERTHA DURING THAT TIME FRAME...BUT THE FIVE-DAY CONSENSUS POINT IS NOT FAR FROM THAT IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...SO ON BALANCE THE NEW TRACK IS NOT THAT MUCH OF A CHANGE. I HAVE NO SOLID REASON TO ALTER THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT...AS THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH...AND A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AROUND 23Z ONLY CAPTURED THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION. CLOUD TOPS OF THE OUTER BANDS HAVE WARMED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT IF ANYTHING THE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS INCREASED EVER SO SLIGHTLY. A CONSENSUS OF THE VARIOUS INTENSITY MODELS DOES NOT SUGGEST MUCH CHANGE IN BERTHA'S STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT PASSES OVER GRADUALLY COOLER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST HOLDS ON TO THE CURRENT INTENSITY THROUGH 36 HOURS AND ONLY SHOWS A SLIGHTLY WEAKER SYSTEM BEYOND THAT TIME. THIS FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM...BUT STILL BELOW THE GFDL AND HWRF THAT FORECAST BERTHA TO AGAIN BECOME A HURRICANE. WHILE THAT POSSIBILITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT...IT APPEARS TO BE THE LESS LIKELY OPTION...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE CONVOLUTED STATE OF BERTHA'S INNER CORE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0300Z 30.5N 63.1W 55 KT 12HR VT 14/1200Z 31.5N 63.5W 55 KT 24HR VT 15/0000Z 33.0N 63.6W 55 KT 36HR VT 15/1200Z 34.6N 63.1W 55 KT 48HR VT 16/0000Z 35.8N 62.0W 50 KT 72HR VT 17/0000Z 35.5N 59.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 18/0000Z 34.5N 56.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 19/0000Z 35.5N 53.0W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER KNABB WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 14 01:10:07 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6E6A7vN004819 for ; Mon, 14 Jul 2008 01:10:07 -0500 Message-Id: <200807140610.m6E6A7vN004819@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 14 Jul 2008 01:09:54 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 14 Jul 2008 06:10:07 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 140556 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERTHA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 44A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 200 AM AST MON JUL 14 2008 ..BERTHA MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.4 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES...200 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. A MOTION GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST TODAY AND TUESDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PASS JUST EAST OF BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE OUTER BANDS OF BERTHA COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN BERMUDA OF 2 TO 4 INCHES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. REPEATING THE 200 AM AST POSITION...30.9 N...63.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER KNABB WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 14 01:10:07 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6E6A7vN004822 for ; Mon, 14 Jul 2008 01:10:07 -0500 Message-Id: <200807140610.m6E6A7vN004822@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 14 Jul 2008 01:09:54 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 14 Jul 2008 06:10:08 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 140559 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1400 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION SOMETIME TODAY AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER KNABB This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 14 04:13:19 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6E9DJvN006018 for ; Mon, 14 Jul 2008 04:13:19 -0500 Message-Id: <200807140913.m6E9DJvN006018@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 14 Jul 2008 04:13:06 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 14 Jul 2008 09:13:21 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 140859 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 45 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 500 AM AST MON JUL 14 2008 ..WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARRIVING IN BERMUDA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES...145 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS FORECAST TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST EAST OF BERMUDA LATER TODAY. BERTHA IS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. COMMANDERS POINT...AN ELEVATED OBSERVING SITE IN BERMUDA...RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 41 MPH...67 KM/HR...WITH A GUST TO 56 MPH...91 KM/HR. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN BERMUDA OF 3 TO 5 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...31.5 N...63.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER KNABB WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 14 04:13:20 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6E9DJvN006021 for ; Mon, 14 Jul 2008 04:13:19 -0500 Message-Id: <200807140913.m6E9DJvN006021@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 14 Jul 2008 04:13:06 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 14 Jul 2008 09:13:22 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT42 KNHC 140900 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 45 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 500 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2008 BERTHA IS FINALLY...TRULY ON THE MOVE...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 335/7. THE CONVECTION HAS ALSO PERKED UP A BIT WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS...EVEN IN THE SHORT TIME SINCE THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE MADE AT 06Z...SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS ON THE HIGH END OF THOSE ESTIMATES AT 55 KT. RADAR IMAGERY FROM BERMUDA SHOWS THAT OUTER BANDS OF BERTHA HAVE BEGUN PASSING OVER THAT ISLAND...AND THE PRIMARY BAND OF CONVECTION THAT WRAPS AROUND FROM THE EAST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER IS NOT FAR OFFSHORE. IT APPEARS THAT THE CENTER OF BERTHA WILL PASS VERY CLOSE TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA LATER TODAY...CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO THAT ISLAND. GIVEN THE SPRAWLING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN STRENGTH DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY TODAY. THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS ALSO SUGGESTS LITTLE CHANGE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ALTHOUGH THE GFDL AND HWRF STILL FORECAST BERTHA TO REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS. BERTHA HAS MADE NORTHWARD PROGRESS FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AND THE TRACK HAS BEEN SPED UP A LITTLE THROUGH 48 HOURS. ONCE BERTHA ROUNDS THE RIDGE CURRENTLY TO ITS EAST AND STARTS HEADING EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE NEXT MID-LATITUDE TROUGH...THE STEERING MECHANISMS BECOME COMPLICATED DUE TO A CUTOFF LOW FORECAST TO APPROACH BERTHA FROM THE EAST. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS COULD RESULT IN AN UNDULATING BUT GENERALLY EASTWARD TRACK OF BERTHA AS INDICATED BY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. AS IN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST...THE NEW TRACK INCLUDES THESE UNDULATIONS...BUT SMOOTHS THROUGH THEM JUST A LITTLE. THE NEW FIVE-DAY POINT HAS ALSO BEEN SPED UP TOWARD THE MODEL CONSENSUS THAT SUGGESTS BERTHA WILL ACCELERATE OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC A LITTLE MORE THAN FORECAST IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0900Z 31.5N 63.6W 55 KT 12HR VT 14/1800Z 32.6N 63.9W 55 KT 24HR VT 15/0600Z 34.2N 63.5W 60 KT 36HR VT 15/1800Z 35.8N 62.6W 55 KT 48HR VT 16/0600Z 36.4N 61.5W 55 KT 72HR VT 17/0600Z 35.0N 59.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 18/0600Z 34.5N 55.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 19/0600Z 37.5N 51.0W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER KNABB WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 14 04:55:14 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6E9tEvN006764 for ; Mon, 14 Jul 2008 04:55:14 -0500 Message-Id: <200807140955.m6E9tEvN006764@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 14 Jul 2008 04:55:01 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Hazardous Weather Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 14 Jul 2008 09:55:15 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FLUS42 KTAE 140953 HWOTAE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 553 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161- GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-151000- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON- JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN- CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL- IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE- DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- 553 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2008 /453 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2008/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA... SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE...AND THE ADJACENT GULF COASTAL WATERS. DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY. COVERAGE OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND ADJACENT AREAS WILL BE LESS THAN RECENT DAYS...WHILE DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST IS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. WET MICROBURSTS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY...SO SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN RATES THAT COULD CAUSE NUISANCE FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. IN ADDITION WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 40 MPH WILL BE FAIRLY COMMON IN THE STRONGER STORMS...WITH ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE. THE STORMS SHOULD END EARLY IN THE EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THAT REGION. DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF TALLAHASSEE NOT EXPECTED TO GET ANY STORMS ON WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... GENERAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY. HOWEVER... SPOTTERS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR STRONG STORMS WHICH MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP. $$ 18-WOOL This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 14 05:00:09 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6EA09vN006801 for ; Mon, 14 Jul 2008 05:00:09 -0500 Message-Id: <200807141000.m6EA09vN006801@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 14 Jul 2008 04:59:55 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Hazardous Weather Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 14 Jul 2008 10:00:09 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FLUS44 KMOB 140958 HWOMOB HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 500 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2008 ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078- 079-151200- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY- COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY- GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- 500 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2008 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND THE GULF COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA. DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH. IN ADDITION...ALL THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 14 06:46:01 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6EBk1vN007361 for ; Mon, 14 Jul 2008 06:46:01 -0500 Message-Id: <200807141146.m6EBk1vN007361@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 14 Jul 2008 06:45:47 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 14 Jul 2008 11:46:01 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 141141 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERTHA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 45A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 800 AM AST MON JUL 14 2008 ..WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE AFFECTING BERMUDA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.8 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES...120 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS FORECAST TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST EAST OF BERMUDA LATER TODAY. BERTHA IS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 68 MPH...WERE RECENTLY REPORTED AT COMMISSIONER'S POINT IN BERMUDA. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN BERMUDA OF 3 TO 5 INCHES. REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...31.6 N...63.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 14 07:01:20 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6EC1KvN007462 for ; Mon, 14 Jul 2008 07:01:20 -0500 Message-Id: <200807141201.m6EC1KvN007462@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 14 Jul 2008 07:01:06 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 14 Jul 2008 12:01:20 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 141155 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LIMITED AT THE PRESENT TIME...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 14 10:04:34 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6EF4XvN008507 for ; Mon, 14 Jul 2008 10:04:33 -0500 Message-Id: <200807141504.m6EF4XvN008507@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 14 Jul 2008 10:04:19 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 14 Jul 2008 15:04:34 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 141455 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 46 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 AM AST MON JUL 14 2008 ..BERTHA MOVING NORTHWARD NEAR BERMUDA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.8 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES...100 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. THE CENTER OF BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 MPH WERE RECENTLY REPORTED AT COMMISSIONER'S POINT IN BERMUDA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS EXPECTED TO REACH BERTHA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE ALSO OCCURRING ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM THE CAROLINAS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN BERMUDA OF 3 TO 5 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...32.0 N...63.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 14 10:04:34 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6EF4YvN008510 for ; Mon, 14 Jul 2008 10:04:34 -0500 Message-Id: <200807141504.m6EF4YvN008510@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 14 Jul 2008 10:04:19 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 14 Jul 2008 15:04:34 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT42 KNHC 141458 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 46 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2008 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 350/6. BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A NORTHWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND SLIDES EASTWARD. WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS LOCATED 50-60 NMI FROM THE CENTER... HOWEVER...THE PRECISE TRACK OF THE CENTER IS RELATIVELY UNIMPORTANT FOR CONDITIONS ON BERMUDA...WHERE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. AFTER BERTHA PASSES BERMUDA...A COMPLICATED STEERING PATTERNS AWAITS...WITH A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 40N/42W FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWESTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE INTERACTION BETWEEN BERTHA AND THE UPPER LOW. THE HWRF AND GFDL MAINTAIN A STRONG TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SWING BERTHA RAPIDLY AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW...WHILE THE GFS LIFTS THE UPPER LOW NORTHEASTWARD AFTER ABOUT 72 HOURS...LEAVING BERTHA BEHIND. AS THE UPPER-LOW AND BERTHA APPROACH...NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE MARKEDLY...AND I SUSPECT THE HWRF/GFDL SOLUTIONS ARE KEEPING BERTHA TOO STRONG AND MAY THEREFORE BE OVERDOING THE INTERACTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE FSSE SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THERE IS NOT MUCH DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH BERTHA RIGHT NOW...AND A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 1030Z SUGGESTS THAT THE WINDS MIGHT BE A LITTLE BELOW THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 55 KT. A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE CYCLONE IN ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS. THE QUIKSCAT DATA REVEALED A 50-60 NMI RMW. GIVEN THIS STRUCTURE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED WHILE THE STORM IS IN THE VICINITY OF BERMUDA. THE WILL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE BERTHA ENCOUNTERS SOME COOLER WATERS AND NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/1500Z 32.0N 63.8W 55 KT 12HR VT 15/0000Z 33.2N 63.9W 55 KT 24HR VT 15/1200Z 34.8N 63.2W 60 KT 36HR VT 16/0000Z 35.9N 62.0W 55 KT 48HR VT 16/1200Z 36.0N 61.0W 55 KT 72HR VT 17/1200Z 34.5N 58.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 18/1200Z 35.0N 55.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 19/1200Z 38.0N 51.0W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 14 12:16:04 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6EHG4vN009198 for ; Mon, 14 Jul 2008 12:16:04 -0500 Message-Id: <200807141716.m6EHG4vN009198@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 14 Jul 2008 12:15:50 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 14 Jul 2008 17:16:05 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 141714 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 114 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161- 142000- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON- JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN- CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL- IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE- DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES... CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY... DAWSON...ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTER...ASHBURN... TIFTON...FITZGERALD...OCILLA...DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY... COLQUITT...NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM...MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS... NASHVILLE...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO...THOMASVILLE... QUITMAN...VALDOSTA...LAKELAND 114 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2008 /1214 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 400 PM EDT (300 PM CDT)...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND GRADUALLY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE BRIEF AS THEY MOVE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE DURING THIS TIME. $$ GOULD This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 14 12:37:19 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6EHbJvN009257 for ; Mon, 14 Jul 2008 12:37:19 -0500 Message-Id: <200807141737.m6EHbJvN009257@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 14 Jul 2008 12:37:04 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 14 Jul 2008 17:37:19 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 141733 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS INCREASED A LITTLE SINCE THIS MORNING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 MPH. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 14 13:01:57 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6EI1vvN009322 for ; Mon, 14 Jul 2008 13:01:57 -0500 Message-Id: <200807141801.m6EI1vvN009322@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 14 Jul 2008 13:01:43 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 14 Jul 2008 18:01:58 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 141800 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 100 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2008 ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-142000- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY- GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM... MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN... PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE... LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON... ANDALUSIA...OPP...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE... TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY... SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA... FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY... MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW... WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE... EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT... NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE 100 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2008 NOW... SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AT 1255 PM... ISOLATED SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THESE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS IN COVERAGE AND EXPAND WESTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND ALSO BECOME STRONGER. THROUGH 300 PM...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WILL BUILD INTO THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF ALABAMA...THEN DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE ADJACENT NEAR SHORE GULF COASTAL WATERS. THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH...BUT WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN AS THEY NEAR THE COAST AND INTERACT WITH THE SEA BREEZE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS...ESPECIALLY WITH THOSE SLOWER MOVING STORMS NEAR THE COAST...WHERE HOURLY TOTALS COULD APPROACH 1 TO 2 INCHES. OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...STORM COVERAGE WILL BE MORE ISOLATED THROUGH 300 PM. ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF WIND GUSTS FROM 35 TO 45 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND SMALL HAIL. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 14 13:07:51 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6EI7pvN009344 for ; Mon, 14 Jul 2008 13:07:51 -0500 Message-Id: <200807141807.m6EI7pvN009344@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 14 Jul 2008 13:07:37 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 14 Jul 2008 18:07:51 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 141757 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERTHA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 46A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 200 PM AST MON JUL 14 2008 ..CENTER OF BERTHA PASSES EAST OF BERMUDA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.1 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES...60 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF BERTHA IS NOW EDGING AWAY FROM BERMUDA...STRONG WINDS IN A RAINBAND TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER HAVE YET TO CLEAR THE ISLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 63 MPH WERE RECENTLY REPORTED AT AN ELEVATED STATION IN BERMUDA...COMMISSIONER'S POINT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES. LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE ALSO OCCURRING ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM THE CAROLINAS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN BERMUDA OF 3 TO 5 INCHES. REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...32.5 N...64.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 14 13:59:53 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6EIxrvN009482 for ; Mon, 14 Jul 2008 13:59:53 -0500 Message-Id: <200807141859.m6EIxrvN009482@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 14 Jul 2008 13:59:38 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 14 Jul 2008 18:59:53 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 141857 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 257 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161- GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-142100- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON- JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN- CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL- IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE- DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES... CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY... DAWSON...ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTER...ASHBURN... TIFTON...FITZGERALD...OCILLA...DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY... COLQUITT...NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM...MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS... NASHVILLE...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO...THOMASVILLE... QUITMAN...VALDOSTA...LAKELAND 257 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2008 /157 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 5 PM EDT (4 PM CDT)...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...AS WELL AS SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN AS THEY MOVE EAST OR SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING THIS TIME WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM TIFTON GEORGIA TO QUINCY FLORIDA. NORTH OF THAT LINE THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE IS DRYING SOMEWHAT...SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED. $$ FOURNIER This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 14 15:58:59 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6EKwxvN010482 for ; Mon, 14 Jul 2008 15:58:59 -0500 Message-Id: <200807142058.m6EKwxvN010482@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 14 Jul 2008 15:58:44 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 14 Jul 2008 20:58:59 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 142056 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 456 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161- GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-142300- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON- JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN- CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL- IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE- DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES... CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY... DAWSON...ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTER...ASHBURN... TIFTON...FITZGERALD...OCILLA...DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY... COLQUITT...NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM...MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS... NASHVILLE...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO...THOMASVILLE... QUITMAN...VALDOSTA...LAKELAND 456 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2008 /356 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 7 PM EDT (6 PM CDT)...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...MAINLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM TIFTON GEORGIA TO TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. ELSEWHERE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED DUE TO MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS. $$ FOURNIER This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 14 16:11:07 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6ELB7vN010551 for ; Mon, 14 Jul 2008 16:11:07 -0500 Message-Id: <200807142111.m6ELB7vN010551@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 14 Jul 2008 16:10:52 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 14 Jul 2008 21:11:07 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 142043 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 47 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 500 PM AST MON JUL 14 2008 ..BERTHA CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH...STRONGEST PART OF STORM ABOUT TO PASS OVER BERMUDA. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.1 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES...100 KM...NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A TURN TO THE EAST EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER BERMUDA'S ELEVATED TERRAIN. BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THERE IS SOME CHANCE THAT THIS COULD OCCUR BEFORE BERTHA'S STRONGEST WINDS MOVE PAST BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE MOST RECENT MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES. LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE ALSO OCCURRING ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM THE CAROLINAS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN BERMUDA OF 3 TO 5 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...33.0 N...64.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 14 16:11:07 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6ELB7vN010554 for ; Mon, 14 Jul 2008 16:11:07 -0500 Message-Id: <200807142111.m6ELB7vN010554@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 14 Jul 2008 16:10:52 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 14 Jul 2008 21:11:07 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT42 KNHC 142044 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 47 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 500 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2008 THE AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING BERTHA FOUND SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF 60 KT IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT...WINDS THAT WERE WERE CONFIRMED BY A CO-LOCATED DROPSONDE. OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...THERE HAS BEEN A RESURGENCE IN DEEP CONVECTION...PERHAPS AS A RESULT OF BERTHA FINALLY MOVING AWAY FROM WHERE IT HAD BEEN PARKED. THIS STRENTHENING REQUIRED THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WATCH FOR BERMUDA...AS THIS PORTION OF THE CYCLONE HAS YET TO CLEAR THE ISLAND. UPPER-LEVEL CIRRUS ARE EXPANDING IN ALL QUADRANTS...AND IT IS NOW EXPECTED THAT BERTHA WILL BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE COOLER WATERS AND INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AFFECT THE STORM IN 36-48 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 350/6...WHICH REPRESENTS THE MOTION OF THE OVERALL CYCLONE RATHER THAN THAT OF THE SMALL SWIRL THAT IS VISIBLE ROTATING WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE RING. THE SHORT TERM TRACK PHILOSOPHY IS UNCHANGED...WITH BERTHA EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. AFTER THAT...BERTHA'S PATH WILL BE DETERMINED BY ITS INTERACTION WITH A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 39N/43W BUT FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE AS A WHOLE IS SLOWER THAN IT HAD BEEN...WITH THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL SHOVE BERTHA SOUTHEASTWARD...AWAY FROM THE WESTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS LESS ACCELERATION ON DAYS 4-5 THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT EVEN SO IS FASTER THAN JUST ABOUT EVERYTHING EXCEPT THE HWRF AND GFDL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/2100Z 33.0N 64.1W 60 KT 12HR VT 15/0600Z 34.2N 63.7W 65 KT 24HR VT 15/1800Z 35.3N 62.8W 65 KT 36HR VT 16/0600Z 35.7N 61.8W 65 KT 48HR VT 16/1800Z 35.2N 60.7W 60 KT 72HR VT 17/1800Z 34.0N 57.5W 55 KT 96HR VT 18/1800Z 35.5N 54.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 19/1800Z 38.0N 51.0W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 14 18:02:09 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6EN29vN011225 for ; Mon, 14 Jul 2008 18:02:09 -0500 Message-Id: <200807142302.m6EN29vN011225@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 14 Jul 2008 18:01:54 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 14 Jul 2008 23:02:10 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 142300 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 700 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161- GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-150100- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON- JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN- CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL- IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE- DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES... CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY... DAWSON...ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTER...ASHBURN... TIFTON...FITZGERALD...OCILLA...DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY... COLQUITT...NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM...MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS... NASHVILLE...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO...THOMASVILLE... QUITMAN...VALDOSTA...LAKELAND 700 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2008 /600 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 9 PM EDT (8 PM CDT)...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH AT 15 MPH ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...SOME OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AS WELL. ELSEWHERE...THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED DUE TO DRIER AIR ALOFT. $$ FOURNIER This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 14 18:59:05 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6ENx5vN011720 for ; Mon, 14 Jul 2008 18:59:05 -0500 Message-Id: <200807142359.m6ENx5vN011720@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 14 Jul 2008 18:58:50 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 14 Jul 2008 23:59:05 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 142344 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERTHA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 47A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 800 PM AST MON JUL 14 2008 ...SQUALLS STILL AFFECTING BERMUDA... A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES...135 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A TURN TO THE EAST EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER BERMUDA'S ELEVATED TERRAIN. BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THERE IS SOME CHANCE THAT THIS COULD OCCUR BEFORE BERTHA'S STRONGEST WINDS MOVE PAST BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES. LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE ALSO OCCURRING ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM THE CAROLINAS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN BERMUDA OF 3 TO 5 INCHES. REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...33.4 N...64.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 14 18:59:05 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6ENx5vN011723 for ; Mon, 14 Jul 2008 18:59:05 -0500 Message-Id: <200807142359.m6ENx5vN011723@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 14 Jul 2008 18:58:50 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 14 Jul 2008 23:59:05 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 142351 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 85 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAVE DECREASED A LITTLE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME AT TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TONIGHT OR TUESDAY AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 MPH. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BROWN WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 14 19:57:19 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6F0vJvN012407 for ; Mon, 14 Jul 2008 19:57:19 -0500 Message-Id: <200807150057.m6F0vJvN012407@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 14 Jul 2008 19:57:04 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 15 Jul 2008 00:57:19 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 150056 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 856 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161- GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-150300- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON- JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN- CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL- IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE- DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES... CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY... DAWSON...ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTER...ASHBURN... TIFTON...FITZGERALD...OCILLA...DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY... COLQUITT...NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM...MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS... NASHVILLE...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO...THOMASVILLE... QUITMAN...VALDOSTA...LAKELAND 856 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2008 /756 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 11 PM EDT (10 PM CDT)...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH AT 15 MPH ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. $$ FOURNIER This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 14 20:57:22 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6F1vMvN012898 for ; Mon, 14 Jul 2008 20:57:22 -0500 Message-Id: <200807150157.m6F1vMvN012898@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 14 Jul 2008 20:57:07 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 15 Jul 2008 01:57:23 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 150156 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 956 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161- GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-150400- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON- JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN- CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL- IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE- DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES... CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY... DAWSON...ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTER...ASHBURN... TIFTON...FITZGERALD...OCILLA...DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY... COLQUITT...NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM...MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS... NASHVILLE...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO...THOMASVILLE... QUITMAN...VALDOSTA...LAKELAND 956 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2008 /856 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2008/ NOW... A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH AT 15 MPH ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT EDT (11 PM CDT). $$ FOURNIER This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 14 22:02:19 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6F32JvN013431 for ; Mon, 14 Jul 2008 22:02:19 -0500 Message-Id: <200807150302.m6F32JvN013431@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 14 Jul 2008 22:02:03 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 15 Jul 2008 03:02:20 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 150251 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 48 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 PM AST MON JUL 14 2008 ..CENTER OF BERTHA PULLING AWAY FROM BERMUDA... AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR BERMUDA...BUT A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.7 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES...195 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST IS FORECAST ON TUESDAY... FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. ON THIS TRACK...BERTHA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND BERTHA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. EARLIER TODAY...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 49 MPH...80 KM/HR...WITH A GUST TO 68 MPH...109 KM/HR...WERE REPORTED AT L.F. WADE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN BERMUDA. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES. LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE ALSO OCCURRING ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM THE CAROLINAS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BERTHA COULD PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. L.F. WADE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN BERMUDA REPORTED 4.68 INCHES OF RAINFALL DURING THE 24 HOURS ENDING AT 800 PM AST MONDAY. REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...33.8 N...63.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER KNABB WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 14 22:02:19 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6F32JvN013434 for ; Mon, 14 Jul 2008 22:02:19 -0500 Message-Id: <200807150302.m6F32JvN013434@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 14 Jul 2008 22:02:04 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 15 Jul 2008 03:02:20 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT42 KNHC 150259 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 48 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2008 THE CENTER OF BERTHA IS STEADILY MOVING AWAY FROM BERMUDA. THE CYCLONE IS IN THE PROCESS OF MAKING A GRADUAL RIGHT TURN...SO THE DIRECTION OF MOTION HAS BEEN FREQUENTLY CHANGING...BUT THE ESTIMATE VALID AT ADVISORY TIME IS 015/8. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY ABOUT 1000 N MI EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERTHA IS SLIDING SOUTHWESTWARD AND PUTTING THE SQUEEZE ON WHAT IS LEFT OF THE NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN BETWEEN. THAT RIDGE HAS BEEN STEERING BERTHA NORTHWARD TODAY...SO AS IT ERODES...BERTHA IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO MAKE A SHARPER RIGHT TURN IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND THEN HEAD SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT MORE DIRECTLY INTERACTS WITH THE CUTOFF LOW. ALL OF THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE CUTOFF LOW WILL LIFT OUT IN ABOUT 72 HOURS...LEAVING BERTHA TO BE STEERED GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD BY THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES TO DEPICT WHAT LOOKS LIKE A SINE WAVE...THIS TIME WITH SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLITUDE...BUT WITH THE NET MOTION OVER FIVE DAYS BEING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. THE FORWARD SPEED OF BERTHA BEYOND 72 HOURS IS RATHER UNCERTAIN...AS THE VARIOUS MODELS AGREE ON THE PATH BUT NOT ON HOW FAST THE CYCLONE WILL GO. THE DEEPEST CONVECTION HAS ROTATED AROUND THE CENTER FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT...WHICH DIRECTLY AFFECTED BERMUDA EARLIER TODAY...AND NOW IS FOCUSED SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER. OTHERWISE...THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED...AS ARE THE DVORAK ESTIMATES AT 55 KT. USING CONTINUITY FROM EARLIER AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MOSTLY UNCHANGED...CALLING FOR BERTHA TO BE AT HURRICANE STATUS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS FORECAST MIGHT NOT BE EXACTLY RIGHT...BUT THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS SUGGESTS BERTHA WILL BE NEAR THE THRESHOLD BETWEEN TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE INTENSITY FOR A FEW DAYS. A WEAKENING TREND IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AT DAYS 4 AND 5 AS BERTHA HEADS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NOTICEABLY COOLER WATERS...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0300Z 33.8N 63.7W 60 KT 12HR VT 15/1200Z 34.9N 63.0W 65 KT 24HR VT 16/0000Z 35.7N 61.9W 65 KT 36HR VT 16/1200Z 35.4N 60.6W 65 KT 48HR VT 17/0000Z 34.4N 59.2W 65 KT 72HR VT 18/0000Z 33.5N 55.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 19/0000Z 36.0N 52.0W 55 KT 120HR VT 20/0000Z 39.5N 49.0W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER KNABB This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 14 22:43:14 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6F3hEvN013785 for ; Mon, 14 Jul 2008 22:43:14 -0500 Message-Id: <200807150343.m6F3hEvN013785@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 14 Jul 2008 22:42:58 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 15 Jul 2008 03:43:14 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 150342 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1142 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2008 FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-150600- INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY- CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY- WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY 1142 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2008 /1042 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 2 AM EDT (1 AM CDT)...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...MAINLY BEYOND 20 MILES FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE COASTLINE. THE BIGGEST STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS DUE SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA. ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS BIG BEND WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE ACROSS MAINLY GADSDEN AND LEON COUNTIES. $$ 18-WOOL This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 15 01:05:32 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6F65WvN014942 for ; Tue, 15 Jul 2008 01:05:32 -0500 Message-Id: <200807150605.m6F65WvN014942@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 15 Jul 2008 01:05:16 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 15 Jul 2008 06:05:32 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 150557 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERTHA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 48A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 200 AM AST TUE JUL 15 2008 ..OUTER BANDS OF BERTHA DEPARTING BERMUDA... AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES...225 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST IS FORECAST TODAY... FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. ON THIS TRACK... BERTHA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND BERTHA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY AS BERTHA MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM BERMUDA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES. LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE STILL AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE ALSO OCCURRING ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM THE CAROLINAS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. REPEATING THE 200 AM AST POSITION...34.2 N...63.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER KNABB WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 15 01:05:32 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6F65WvN014945 for ; Tue, 15 Jul 2008 01:05:32 -0500 Message-Id: <200807150605.m6F65WvN014945@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 15 Jul 2008 01:05:16 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 15 Jul 2008 06:05:32 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 150558 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 140 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A BROAD AREA OF WEAK AND DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER KNABB WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 15 03:53:28 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6F8rSvN016290 for ; Tue, 15 Jul 2008 03:53:28 -0500 Message-Id: <200807150853.m6F8rSvN016290@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 15 Jul 2008 03:53:28 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Forecast/Advisory X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 15 Jul 2008 08:53:29 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT22 KNHC 150849 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 49 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 0900 UTC TUE JUL 15 2008 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 63.2W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 63.2W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 63.5W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 35.7N 62.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 35.9N 60.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 34.7N 59.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 33.7N 58.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 34.0N 55.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 37.0N 51.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 41.0N 47.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.7N 63.2W ****ERROR: INCOMPLETE DATA WWUS53 KDLH 150849 SVSDLH SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 349 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2008 MNC001-017-115-150859- /O.CAN.KDLH.SV.W.0169.000000T0000Z-080715T0900Z/ CARLTON MN-PINE MN-AITKIN MN- 349 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2008 ..THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL AITKIN... NORTHWESTERN PINE AND SOUTHWESTERN CARLTON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED... THE STORM HAS WEAKENED AND IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SEVERE. HOWEVER... HAIL TO DIME SIZE...AND GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA. LAT...LON 4624 9266 4647 9331 4664 9304 4658 9278 4657 9277 4657 9275 4649 9247 4648 9246 TIME...MOT...LOC 0849Z 297DEG 36KT 4639 9280 $$ LONKA WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 15 04:04:52 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6F94qvN016409 for ; Tue, 15 Jul 2008 04:04:52 -0500 Message-Id: <200807150904.m6F94qvN016409@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 15 Jul 2008 04:04:52 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Hazardous Weather Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 15 Jul 2008 09:04:53 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FLUS44 KMOB 150901 HWOMOB HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 500 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2008 ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078- 079-161200- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY- COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY- GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- 500 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2008 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND THE GULF COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA. DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 15 04:08:44 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6F98ivN016447 for ; Tue, 15 Jul 2008 04:08:44 -0500 Message-Id: <200807150908.m6F98ivN016447@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 15 Jul 2008 04:08:44 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 15 Jul 2008 09:08:45 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 150856 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 49 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 500 AM AST TUE JUL 15 2008 ..BERTHA ABOUT TO TURN EASTWARD AND MOVE FARTHER FROM BERMUDA... AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.2 WEST OR ABOUT 190 MILES...305 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST IS FORECAST TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...BERTHA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND BERTHA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES. LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE STILL AFFECTING BERMUDA...BUT THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LESSEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE ALSO OCCURRING ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM THE CAROLINAS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...34.7 N...63.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER KNABB This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 15 04:08:45 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6F98ivN016450 for ; Tue, 15 Jul 2008 04:08:44 -0500 Message-Id: <200807150908.m6F98ivN016450@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 15 Jul 2008 04:08:45 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 15 Jul 2008 09:08:46 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT42 KNHC 150859 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 49 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 500 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2008 BERTHA HAS PUT A LITTLE MORE DISTANCE BETWEEN ITSELF AND BERMUDA...AND THE PREVIOUSLY FORECAST TURN TOWARD THE RIGHT IS MATERIALIZING. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 030/8...BUT THE HEADING WILL LIKELY CHANGE ALMOST CONTINUOUSLY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...DURING WHICH TIME BERTHA IS FORECAST BY NEARLY ALL OF THE MODELS TO KEEP TURNING RIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS ABOUT TO EXIT THE U.S. EAST COAST AND GIVE BERTHA A SHOVE TO THE EAST...BUT ALSO A LARGE CUTOFF LOW CLOSING IN ON BERTHA FROM THE OTHER DIRECTION. ONCE BERTHA AND THE CUTOFF LOW MEET UP DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE GUIDANCE INDICATES BERTHA WILL THEN FOLLOW AN UNDULATING TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MOTION IS SHARPLY SOUTHEASTWARD ON DAY TWO...THEN GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD ON DAYS 3-5 AS THE CUTOFF LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT AGAIN...ALL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MOST MODELS. THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE...HOWEVER...ON THE FORWARD SPEED OF BERTHA ON DAYS 3-5...IN PART DUE TO VARYING DEPICTIONS OF BERTHA'S DEPTH AND STRENGTH. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND PRESUMES THAT BERTHA WILL BE WEAKER BY THAT TIME AND NOT ACCELERATE AS QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD AS THE GFDL AND HWRF ARE SUGGESTING...AND INSTEAD RELIES MAINLY ON A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITIES ARE UNCHANGED. THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF BERTHA REMAINS MUCH AS IT WAS A FEW HOURS AGO...AND DVORAK ESTIMATES GENERALLY SUPPORT KEEPING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 60 KT. BERTHA HAS AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT REMAINS OVER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 26 AND 27 CELSIUS...BUT SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY GIVEN THE SPRAWLING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. BEYOND 48 HOURS...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS AGAIN FORECAST DUE TO COOLER WATERS AND A STRONG POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SHEAR. THAT SCENARIO IS THE ONE PAINTED BY THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE...WHICH DIFFERS FROM THE GFDL AND HWRF...BOTH OF WHICH FORECAST BERTHA TO REMAIN A HURRICANE FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0900Z 34.7N 63.2W 60 KT 12HR VT 15/1800Z 35.7N 62.3W 65 KT 24HR VT 16/0600Z 35.9N 60.9W 65 KT 36HR VT 16/1800Z 34.7N 59.8W 65 KT 48HR VT 17/0600Z 33.7N 58.6W 65 KT 72HR VT 18/0600Z 34.0N 55.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 19/0600Z 37.0N 51.0W 55 KT 120HR VT 20/0600Z 41.0N 47.0W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER KNABB This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 15 04:37:26 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6F9bQvN017063 for ; Tue, 15 Jul 2008 04:37:26 -0500 Message-Id: <200807150937.m6F9bQvN017063@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 15 Jul 2008 04:37:26 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Hazardous Weather Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 15 Jul 2008 09:37:26 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FLUS42 KTAE 150936 HWOTAE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 536 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161- GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-161000- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON- JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN- CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL- IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE- DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- 536 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2008 /436 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2008/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA... SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND AND NORTHWARD TO AROUND THE VALDOSTA REGION OF SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FALL RAPIDLY FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND WEST WHERE SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY... SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS RETURN TO A MORE NORMAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REGION WIDE. SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP. $$ 14-MROCZKA This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 15 06:10:25 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6FBAPvN018032 for ; Tue, 15 Jul 2008 06:10:25 -0500 Message-Id: <200807151110.m6FBAPvN018032@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 15 Jul 2008 06:10:25 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Hazardous Weather Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 15 Jul 2008 11:10:25 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FLUS44 KMOB 151109 AAA HWOMOB HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 610 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2008 ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078- 079-161200- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY- COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY- GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- 610 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2008 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND THE GULF COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA. DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK OF WILDFIRES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TODAY. DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 15 06:56:42 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6FBugvN018424 for ; Tue, 15 Jul 2008 06:56:42 -0500 Message-Id: <200807151156.m6FBugvN018424@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 15 Jul 2008 06:56:42 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 15 Jul 2008 11:56:42 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 151142 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 190 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/RHOME WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 15 09:59:56 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6FExuvN020032 for ; Tue, 15 Jul 2008 09:59:56 -0500 Message-Id: <200807151459.m6FExuvN020032@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 15 Jul 2008 09:59:56 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 15 Jul 2008 14:59:57 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 151452 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 50 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 AM AST TUE JUL 15 2008 ..LONG-LIVED BERTHA TO HANG AROUND FOR A FEW MORE DAYS... AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.7 WEST OR ABOUT 260 MILES...415 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. BERTHA IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST LATER TODAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE EAST OR EAST-SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BERTHA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AGAIN LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...35.6 N...62.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 15 09:59:56 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6FExuvN020035 for ; Tue, 15 Jul 2008 09:59:56 -0500 Message-Id: <200807151459.m6FExuvN020035@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 15 Jul 2008 09:59:56 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 15 Jul 2008 14:59:57 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT42 KNHC 151453 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 50 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2008 BERTHA IS MAINTAINING ITS STRUCTURE ON SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING WITH A NEW BURST OF CONVECTION ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE STORM... AND APPARENT EYEWALL MESOVORTICES ROTATING QUICKLY AROUND THE CENTER. HIGH-RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT SHOWS WINDS OF 55-60 KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE STORM STILL HAS A CHANCE TO BECOME A HURRICANE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES AS INDICATED BY ALL MODELS. THE STATISTICAL MODELS SUGGEST NO INTENSIFICATION BUT THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUCH AS THE GFDL/HWRF EMPHATICALLY SUGGEST BERTHA WILL BECOME...AND MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE CLOSER TO THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME AS THE UPPER ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT SEEM TO BE TOO FAVORABLE FOR A HURRICANE BEYOND A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE STORM IS CURRENTLY MOVING 030/10...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE. A NARROW RIDGE TO THE EAST OF BERTHA IS STEERING THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE TIME BEING. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE ERODED BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS WITHIN 24 HOURS AS A LARGE DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST. THE BIGGEST DISCREPANCY IS WHEN THE EXPECTED RIGHT TURN OF THE CYCLONE EMERGES. THE ECMWF/UKMET SHOW THAT THE TURN WILL BE DELAYED FOR AN EXTRA 12 HOURS...ALLOWING THE STORM TO GAIN MORE LATITUDE AS COMPARED TO THE GFS/GFDL/HWRF. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO MODEL CAMPS...AND SHIFTS THE TRACK NORTHWARD IN THE SHORT-TERM. UNCERTAINTY ALSO REMAINS HIGH IN THE LONG-RANGE FORECAST AS THE GFDL/HWRF ARE STILL SHOWING BERTHA SHOOTING OUT TO SEA WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET ARE MUCH SLOWER. BECAUSE THE STORM IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE SUCH A WELL-DEVELOPED STRUCTURE LIKE THE FORMER MODELS ARE INDICATING...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL LEAN MORE HEAVILY ON THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS THAT DELAY THE TROPICAL CYCLONE'S EVENTUAL DEMISE. AROUND 120 HOURS A COMBINATION OF COOLER WATERS AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH INTERACTION MAY...HOPEFULLY...START TO SIGNAL THE DEMISE OF BERTHA AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/1500Z 35.6N 62.7W 60 KT 12HR VT 16/0000Z 36.4N 61.8W 65 KT 24HR VT 16/1200Z 36.2N 60.7W 65 KT 36HR VT 17/0000Z 35.1N 59.6W 65 KT 48HR VT 17/1200Z 34.1N 58.2W 60 KT 72HR VT 18/1200Z 34.5N 54.5W 55 KT 96HR VT 19/1200Z 37.5N 50.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 20/1200Z 41.5N 46.0W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER BLAKE WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 15 12:47:59 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6FHlwvN021415 for ; Tue, 15 Jul 2008 12:47:59 -0500 Message-Id: <200807151747.m6FHlwvN021415@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 15 Jul 2008 12:47:59 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 15 Jul 2008 17:47:59 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 151738 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 260 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 770 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE DAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM IS DECREASING SINCE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 15 15:36:08 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6FKa8vN022926 for ; Tue, 15 Jul 2008 15:36:08 -0500 Message-Id: <200807152036.m6FKa8vN022926@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 15 Jul 2008 15:36:08 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 15 Jul 2008 20:36:08 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 152034 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 51 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 500 PM AST TUE JUL 15 2008 ..BERTHA NOW THE LONGEST-LIVED JULY TROPICAL STORM IN HISTORY... AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.3 WEST OR ABOUT 315 MILES...510 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BERTHA MAY STILL BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE ENCOUNTERING A MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...36.4 N...62.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 15 15:36:10 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6FKaAvN022930 for ; Tue, 15 Jul 2008 15:36:10 -0500 Message-Id: <200807152036.m6FKaAvN022930@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 15 Jul 2008 15:36:10 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 15 Jul 2008 20:36:11 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT42 KNHC 152035 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 51 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 500 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2008 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF BERTHA HAS DEGRADED A BIT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS THE EYE HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT. HOWEVER... THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...WHICH MIGHT BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. IT APPEARS THAT THE STORM HAS ABOUT A DAY LEFT TO POSSIBLY INTENSIFY BEFORE WIND SHEAR INCREASES... ALTHOUGH SO FAR BERTHA SHOWS NO SIGNS OF BECOMING A HURRICANE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS... AND NOT TOO FAR FROM THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FORECASTING THE SYSTEM TO INTERACT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STARTING IN ABOUT 96 HR...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF BERTHA AROUND DAY 5. BERTHA HAS SHOWN NO INDICATION OF THE FORECAST RIGHT TURN AND CONTINUES ON A TRACK OF ABOUT 030/8. HOWEVER THIS CHANGE IN DIRECTION SHOULD OCCUR SOON AS MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGING IS BECOMING WEAKER ON WATER VAPOR IMAGES. AS THE RIDGE COLLAPSES...BERTHA SHOULD BE STEERED MORE TO THE EAST...THEN SOUTHEAST AND NORTHEAST IN AN ARCING SEMICIRCLE FASHION AROUND A LARGE DEEP-LAYERED LOW TO THE EAST. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN TRACK AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. BERTHA IS NOW THE LONGEST-LIVED JULY TROPICAL STORM IN ATLANTIC HISTORY...WITH 12.5 DAYS AS A TROPICAL STORM OR GREATER. THIS ECLIPSES THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 12.25 DAYS OCCURRING IN 1916 FROM STORM #2. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/2100Z 36.4N 62.3W 60 KT 12HR VT 16/0600Z 36.8N 61.5W 60 KT 24HR VT 16/1800Z 36.3N 60.5W 65 KT 36HR VT 17/0600Z 35.1N 59.5W 60 KT 48HR VT 17/1800Z 34.2N 57.5W 55 KT 72HR VT 18/1800Z 35.7N 53.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 19/1800Z 39.5N 49.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 20/1800Z 43.5N 44.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER BLAKE WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 15 16:23:36 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6FLNavN023316 for ; Tue, 15 Jul 2008 16:23:36 -0500 Message-Id: <200807152123.m6FLNavN023316@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 15 Jul 2008 16:23:36 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 15 Jul 2008 21:23:36 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 152122 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 522 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161- GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-152330- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON- JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN- CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL- IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE- DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES... CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY... DAWSON...ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTER...ASHBURN... TIFTON...FITZGERALD...OCILLA...DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY... COLQUITT...NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM...MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS... NASHVILLE...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO...THOMASVILLE... QUITMAN...VALDOSTA...LAKELAND 522 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2008 /422 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 730 PM EDT (630 PM CDT)...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. $$ FOURNIER This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 15 18:21:36 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6FNLavN024289 for ; Tue, 15 Jul 2008 18:21:36 -0500 Message-Id: <200807152321.m6FNLavN024289@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 15 Jul 2008 18:21:36 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 15 Jul 2008 23:21:37 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 152320 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 720 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161- GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-160130- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON- JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN- CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL- IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE- DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES... CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY... DAWSON...ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTER...ASHBURN... TIFTON...FITZGERALD...OCILLA...DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY... COLQUITT...NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM...MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS... NASHVILLE...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO...THOMASVILLE... QUITMAN...VALDOSTA...LAKELAND 720 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2008 /620 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 930 PM EDT (830 PM CDT)...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...AS WELL AS THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS TO 25 MPH. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL BE ISOLATED. $$ FOURNIER This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 15 18:51:24 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6FNpOvN024539 for ; Tue, 15 Jul 2008 18:51:24 -0500 Message-Id: <200807152351.m6FNpOvN024539@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 15 Jul 2008 18:51:24 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 15 Jul 2008 23:51:24 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 152350 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 650 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2008 ALZ060-FLZ004>006-160115- COVINGTON-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANDALUSIA...OPP...PACE...MILTON... GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW...WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH... NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE...EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO 650 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2008 NOW...A FEW SHOWERS...POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL SUNSET. MOVEMENT ILL BE SOUTH SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH. AN INFREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BEACH IN THE NAVARRE TO WOODLAWN BEACH AREAS. IF ON THE BEACH THIS EVENING...BE ALERT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHTNING THROUGH ABOUT 8 PM. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 15 18:55:14 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6FNtEvN024571 for ; Tue, 15 Jul 2008 18:55:14 -0500 Message-Id: <200807152355.m6FNtEvN024571@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 15 Jul 2008 18:55:14 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 15 Jul 2008 23:55:15 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 152339 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 315 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 675 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION THIS EVENING. WHILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THERE IS STILL SOME CHANCE THAT THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BROWN WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 15 21:58:48 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6G2wmvN026157 for ; Tue, 15 Jul 2008 21:58:48 -0500 Message-Id: <200807160258.m6G2wmvN026157@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 15 Jul 2008 21:58:48 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 16 Jul 2008 02:58:49 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT42 KNHC 160249 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 52 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2008 BERTHA'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY DEGRADE THIS EVENING AS THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STORM. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 AND 55 KT...RESPECTIVELY. A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS FROM 2222 UTC SUGGEST THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE 50-55 KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED A LITTLE. BERTHA STILL HAS A LITTLE TIME TO RESTRENGTHEN...SINCE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW WHILE THE STORM MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HOWEVER...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS BERTHA JUST SHY OF HURRICANE STRENGTH. AFTER 48 HOURS... COOLER WATER AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN BERTHA'S GRADUAL DEMISE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. BERTHA APPEARS TO BE PUTTING ON THE BRAKES ONCE AGAIN. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE ANTICIPATED EASTWARD TURN HAS COMMENCED AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 055/5. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING BERTHA TURNING SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY AN EASTWARD MOTION THEREAFTER...AROUND THE LARGE DEEP-LAYER LOW TO THE EAST. AS THE DEEP-LAYER LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD IN ABOUT 72 HOURS...BERTHA SHOULD FINALLY FEEL THE WESTERLIES AND STARTING HEADING NORTHEASTWARD. THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD ON BERTHA'S FORWARD SPEED AT DAYS 4 AND 5...WITH THE UKMET AND GFS SHOWING LESS ACCELERATION...WHILE THE GFDL... GFDN...AND NOGAPS RACE BERTHA NORTHEASTWARD. FOR NOW...THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...AND IS CLOSE THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE 12Z ECMWF. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0300Z 36.8N 61.6W 55 KT 12HR VT 16/1200Z 36.9N 61.1W 55 KT 24HR VT 17/0000Z 36.0N 60.2W 60 KT 36HR VT 17/1200Z 34.7N 59.1W 60 KT 48HR VT 18/0000Z 34.0N 57.5W 60 KT 72HR VT 19/0000Z 36.5N 52.7W 50 KT 96HR VT 20/0000Z 40.0N 48.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 21/0000Z 44.5N 42.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER BROWN  This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 16 00:47:01 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6G5l1vN027508 for ; Wed, 16 Jul 2008 00:47:01 -0500 Message-Id: <200807160547.m6G5l1vN027508@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 16 Jul 2008 00:47:00 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 16 Jul 2008 05:47:01 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 160535 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 360 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OFF THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS IT MOVES EASTWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE SYSTEM TO LAND. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED. HOWEVER... THERE IS STILL A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TODAY BEFORE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 16 04:05:46 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6G95jvN028543 for ; Wed, 16 Jul 2008 04:05:45 -0500 Message-Id: <200807160905.m6G95jvN028543@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 16 Jul 2008 04:05:45 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 16 Jul 2008 09:05:46 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 160853 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 53 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 500 AM AST WED JUL 16 2008 ..BERTHA TURNS EASTWARD... AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.0 WEST OR ABOUT 355 MILES...575 KM...NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...AND A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...36.4 N...61.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER RHOME WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 16 04:05:47 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6G95lvN028546 for ; Wed, 16 Jul 2008 04:05:47 -0500 Message-Id: <200807160905.m6G95lvN028546@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 16 Jul 2008 04:05:47 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 16 Jul 2008 09:05:47 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT42 KNHC 160853 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 53 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 500 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2008 BERTHA IS CAUGHT BETWEEN MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF AN UPPER-LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS HAS RESULTED IN BERTHA'S CLOUD PATTERN BECOMING INCREASINGLY STRETCHED IN A SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ORIENTATION. HOWEVER...THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT 55 KT. BERTHA IS BEGINNING AN ANTICIPATED TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH AND THIS TRACK IS EXPECTED TO TAKE THE CYCLONE OVER PROGRESSIVELY WARMER WATERS DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS. SINCE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW DURING THIS PERIOD...SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERING COOLER WATER AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR BEYOND 72 HOURS. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND SHOWS BERTHA REMAINING JUST SHY OF HURRICANE STRENGTH. BERTHA IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 100/05. A SOUTHEAST TURN IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY FOLLOWED BY A TURN EASTWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD IN 2-3 DAYS AS THE CYCLONE CYCLONICALLY ROTATES AROUND A LARGE UPPER-LOW TO ITS EAST. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST 2 DAYS OF THE FORECAST BUT THEN DIVERGES AT DAYS 3-5. THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE SPANS NEARLY 1400 MILES AT DAY 5 AND IS BOUNDED BY THE NOGAPS MODEL...WHICH RACES THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD...AND THE GFS MODEL...WHICH SHOWS A MUCH SLOWER EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION. THE HWRF...GFDL...AND UKMET MODELS LIE IN BETWEEN THESE OUTLIER SOLUTIONS AND ARE THE BASIS FOR THE SOUTHWARD SHIFT AND SLOWER FORWARD SPEED SHOWN IN THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0900Z 36.4N 61.0W 55 KT 12HR VT 16/1800Z 36.1N 60.6W 55 KT 24HR VT 17/0600Z 35.0N 60.0W 60 KT 36HR VT 17/1800Z 34.1N 58.6W 60 KT 48HR VT 18/0600Z 34.0N 56.5W 60 KT 72HR VT 19/0600Z 36.5N 52.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 20/0600Z 40.0N 47.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 21/0600Z 43.5N 41.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER RHOME WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 16 04:35:48 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6G9ZmvN029067 for ; Wed, 16 Jul 2008 04:35:48 -0500 Message-Id: <200807160935.m6G9ZmvN029067@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 16 Jul 2008 04:35:48 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Hazardous Weather Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 16 Jul 2008 09:35:48 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FLUS42 KTAE 160929 HWOTAE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 529 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161- GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-171000- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON- JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN- CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL- IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE- DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- 529 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2008 /429 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2008/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA... SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT... A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN THREAT TODAY FROM ANY STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SCATTERED LIGHTNING STRIKES. DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... AS THE SURFACE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH LIFTS NORTH AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND BACK WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. NEAR NORMAL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS AND ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL. SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP. $$ 14-MROCZKA This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 16 05:25:37 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6GAPbvN029525 for ; Wed, 16 Jul 2008 05:25:37 -0500 Message-Id: <200807161025.m6GAPbvN029525@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 16 Jul 2008 05:25:36 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Hazardous Weather Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 16 Jul 2008 10:25:37 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FLUS44 KMOB 161024 HWOMOB HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 524 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2008 ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078- 079-171200- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY- COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY- GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- 524 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2008 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND THE GULF COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA. DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON BUT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 16 06:54:04 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6GBs4vN030045 for ; Wed, 16 Jul 2008 06:54:04 -0500 Message-Id: <200807161154.m6GBs4vN030045@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 16 Jul 2008 06:54:04 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 16 Jul 2008 11:54:05 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 161145 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 335 MILES NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OFF THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS IT MOVES EASTWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 16 09:42:33 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6GEgXw3031185 for ; Wed, 16 Jul 2008 09:42:33 -0500 Message-Id: <200807161442.m6GEgXw3031185@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 16 Jul 2008 09:42:33 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 16 Jul 2008 14:42:33 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 161431 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 54 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 AM AST WED JUL 16 2008 ..BERTHA A LITTLE STRONGER... AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.7 WEST OR ABOUT 380 MILES...610 KM...NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR. BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY AND TURN BACK TO EAST ON THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...36.6 N...60.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 16 09:42:40 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6GEgew3031191 for ; Wed, 16 Jul 2008 09:42:40 -0500 Message-Id: <200807161442.m6GEgew3031191@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 16 Jul 2008 09:42:41 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 16 Jul 2008 14:42:41 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT42 KNHC 161431 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 54 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2008 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF BERTHA HAS DEGRADED SINCE YESTERDAY WITH AN ELONGATED APPEARANCE. HOWEVER...A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0938 UTC SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 60 KT. THIS ESTIMATE WILL BE USED FOR THE INITIAL INTENSITY. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE EFFECTS OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ON THE STORM MAY BE TEMPERED BY INCREASING SSTS. SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE BY ALL MODELS IN A FEW DAYS...SO THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN MORE IN THE LONG-TERM. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD OCCUR IN 4 OR 5 DAYS DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF STRONG MID-LATITUDE WINDS AND RAPIDLY COOLING WATERS. QUIKSCAT DATA HELPED PLACE THE CENTER A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING...YIELDING AN UNCERTAIN MOTION ESTIMATE OF 100/3. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AS IT PINWHEELS AROUND A LARGE MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN ARCING PATH TAKING THE SYSTEM FARTHER AWAY FROM NORTH AMERICA. IN TWO TO THREE DAYS... A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL APPROACH BERTHA FROM THE WEST. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE STORM WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA...BUT MODELS ARE GENERALLY FASTER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE STORM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS A LITTLE FASTER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/1500Z 36.6N 60.7W 60 KT 12HR VT 17/0000Z 36.0N 60.1W 60 KT 24HR VT 17/1200Z 35.0N 58.7W 60 KT 36HR VT 18/0000Z 34.7N 56.4W 60 KT 48HR VT 18/1200Z 35.6N 54.0W 60 KT 72HR VT 19/1200Z 40.0N 49.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 20/1200Z 43.5N 44.5W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 21/1200Z 47.5N 39.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER BLAKE  This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 16 09:58:02 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6GEw2w3031279 for ; Wed, 16 Jul 2008 09:58:02 -0500 Message-Id: <200807161458.m6GEw2w3031279@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 16 Jul 2008 09:58:02 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 16 Jul 2008 14:58:02 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WONT41 KNHC 161445 DSAAT SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1045 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2008 SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER-ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL BE INVESTIGATING THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS FORMED. EVEN IF NO DEVELOPMENT OCCURS...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. ALL INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AND FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 16 13:16:59 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6GIGxw3032317 for ; Wed, 16 Jul 2008 13:16:59 -0500 Message-Id: <200807161816.m6GIGxw3032317@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 16 Jul 2008 13:16:59 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 16 Jul 2008 18:17:00 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 161753 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE TROPICS ARE VERY BUSY FOR THE MIDDLE OF JULY. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 380 MILES NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO WATERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE RISING AND DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND. THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THIS AREA TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH...BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TODAY AND TOMORROW. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF NICARAGUA IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT BEFORE MOVING INTO CENTRAL AMERICA LATE TOMORROW. HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS TOMORROW...WITH FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 16 15:11:11 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6GKBBw3000521 for ; Wed, 16 Jul 2008 15:11:11 -0500 Message-Id: <200807162011.m6GKBBw3000521@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 16 Jul 2008 15:11:11 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 16 Jul 2008 20:11:12 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 162009 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 309 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2008 ALZ055>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ078-079-162130- MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE- UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA- COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA- INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-STONE-GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN... GREENVILLE...LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON... EAST BREWTON...ANDALUSIA...OPP...PRICHARD...SARALAND... BAY MINETTE...TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE... FOLEY...SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA... FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY... MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW... WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE... EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE 309 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2008 NOW...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND EXPAND WESTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON. THROUGH 430 PM...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER STONE AND GEORGE COUNTIES IN MISSISSIPPI...THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA. THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH...BUT WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN AS THEY NEAR THE COAST AND INTERACT WITH THE SEA BREEZE. ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...WIND GUSTS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 16 15:50:18 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6GKoIw3000726 for ; Wed, 16 Jul 2008 15:50:18 -0500 Message-Id: <200807162050.m6GKoIw3000726@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 16 Jul 2008 15:50:18 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 16 Jul 2008 20:50:18 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 162042 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 55 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 500 PM AST WED JUL 16 2008 ..BERTHA TURNS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST... AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.5 WEST OR ABOUT 360 MILES...580 KM...NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A TURN TOWARD THE EAST ON THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME SLOW DECREASE IN STRENGTH FORECAST STARTING LATE ON THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...36.1 N...60.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...SOUTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 16 15:50:19 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6GKoJw3000729 for ; Wed, 16 Jul 2008 15:50:19 -0500 Message-Id: <200807162050.m6GKoJw3000729@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 16 Jul 2008 15:50:19 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 16 Jul 2008 20:50:20 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT42 KNHC 162043 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 55 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 500 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2008 BERTHA REMAINS A POWERFUL SYSTEM WITH A LARGE WIND FIELD AND A RAGGED EYE. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION FROM THIS MORNING SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 60 KT. LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND THE STORM SHOULD BE FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE'S INTENSITY FOR A DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...A SLOW DECREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST AS SSTS DIMINISH SLOWLY ALONG THE TRACK. THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF BERTHA SHOULD START IN ABOUT 3-4 DAYS DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF A MIDDLE-LATITUDE TROUGH AND EVEN COOLER WATERS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWING ONLY A SLOW DEMISE OF THE STORM. THE STORM HAS MADE THE SOUTHEASTWARD TURN AND IS NOW MOVING 140/4. A LARGE MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST IS NOW STEERING BERTHA AROUND ITS PERIPHERY. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE FORECAST TAKING THE STORM TO THE SOUTHEAST...EAST...THEN NORTHEAST. HOWEVER... THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHETHER BERTHA WILL BE SENT OUT TO SEA BY THE UPPER LOW OR WHETHER A SECOND TROUGH WILL FINISH OFF THE STORM. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS GOING WITH A FASTER SOLUTION...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS IN THAT DIRECTION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/2100Z 36.1N 60.5W 60 KT 12HR VT 17/0600Z 35.5N 59.9W 60 KT 24HR VT 17/1800Z 34.7N 58.1W 60 KT 36HR VT 18/0600Z 35.1N 55.6W 55 KT 48HR VT 18/1800Z 36.9N 53.1W 55 KT 72HR VT 19/1800Z 41.5N 47.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 20/1800Z 46.5N 41.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 21/1800Z 52.5N 32.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER BLAKE WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 16 17:06:49 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6GM6nw3001158 for ; Wed, 16 Jul 2008 17:06:49 -0500 Message-Id: <200807162206.m6GM6nw3001158@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 16 Jul 2008 17:06:49 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 16 Jul 2008 22:06:49 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WONT41 KNHC 162152 DSAAT SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 600 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2008 AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS JUST COMPLETED ITS MISSION IN THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM HAS A BROAD CIRCULATION... DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM LACKS A SINGLE WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER. IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. CONSEQUENTLY...THE SYSTEM IS NOT BEING CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME. REGARDLESS...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 20-25 MPH. ALL INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...SINCE IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN  This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 16 17:24:28 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6GMORw3001261 for ; Wed, 16 Jul 2008 17:24:27 -0500 Message-Id: <200807162224.m6GMORw3001261@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 16 Jul 2008 17:24:27 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 16 Jul 2008 22:24:28 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 162223 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 523 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2008 ALZ056>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ078-079-170030- CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE- UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA- COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA- INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-STONE-GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE...LUVERNE... BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON...ANDALUSIA...OPP... PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE...TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE... DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY...SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON... MOLINO...PENSACOLA...FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA... BELLVIEW...ENSLEY...MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON... GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW...WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH... NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE...EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO... WIGGINS...LUCEDALE 523 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2008 NOW...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG SURFACE OUTFLOWS OF OTHER STORMS. THE OUTFLOWS WILL MOVE IN FROM OUTSIDE THE AREA ESPECIALLY FROM THE SOUTH. MOVEMENT WILL BE SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH THROUGH 730 PM. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AS WELL AS STONE AND GEORGE COUNTY MISSISSIPPI AND MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES IN ALABAMA FROM WIGGINS MISSISSIPPI TO MILTON FLORIDA. ONCE DEVELOPED...STORMS WILL BRING HOURLY RAINFALL GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 16 18:01:44 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6GN1iw3001509 for ; Wed, 16 Jul 2008 18:01:44 -0500 Message-Id: <200807162301.m6GN1iw3001509@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 16 Jul 2008 18:01:44 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 16 Jul 2008 23:01:44 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 162300 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 600 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2008 ALZ056>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ078-079-170100- CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE- UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA- COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA- INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-STONE-GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE...LUVERNE... BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON...ANDALUSIA...OPP... PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE...TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE... DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY...SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON... MOLINO...PENSACOLA...FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA... BELLVIEW...ENSLEY...MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON... GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW...WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH... NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE...EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO... WIGGINS...LUCEDALE 600 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2008 NOW....ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG SURFACE OUTFLOWS OF OTHER STORMS. THE OUTFLOWS WILL MOVE IN FROM OUTSIDE THE AREA ESPECIALLY FROM THE SOUTH. MOVEMENT WILL BE SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH THROUGH 800 PM. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AS WELL AS STONE AND GEORGE COUNTY MISSISSIPPI AND MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES IN ALABAMA FROM NEAR BELLEVILLE MISSISSIPPI TO NEAR MILTON FLORIDA. ONCE DEVELOPED...STORMS WILL BRING HOURLY RAINFALL GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 16 18:38:42 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6GNcgw3001718 for ; Wed, 16 Jul 2008 18:38:42 -0500 Message-Id: <200807162338.m6GNcgw3001718@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 16 Jul 2008 18:38:42 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 16 Jul 2008 23:38:42 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 162333 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 360 MILES NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED A SHORT DISTANCE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BARBADOS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY COMPLETED ITS MISSION IN THE DISTURBANCE...AND FOUND A BROAD CLOSED CIRCULATION BUT NO WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER. IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT AS WELL ORGANIZED AS IT WAS EARLIER IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME TONIGHT OR TOMORROW AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 20-25 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND INTERESTS THERE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. ALTHOUGH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY POORLY ORGANIZED... UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT REACHES CENTRAL AMERICA IN A DAY OR SO. REGARDLESS...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS TOMORROW...AND THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WATERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED IN THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 16 21:57:32 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6H2vWw3002859 for ; Wed, 16 Jul 2008 21:57:32 -0500 Message-Id: <200807170257.m6H2vWw3002859@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 16 Jul 2008 21:57:32 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 17 Jul 2008 02:57:32 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 170242 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 56 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 PM AST WED JUL 16 2008 AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.8 WEST OR ABOUT 360 MILES...575 KM...NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A TURN TOWARD THE EAST ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHEASTWARD TURN ON FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...BUT A SLOW DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO START ON FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...35.4 N...59.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...SOUTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 16 21:57:33 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6H2vXw3002862 for ; Wed, 16 Jul 2008 21:57:33 -0500 Message-Id: <200807170257.m6H2vXw3002862@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 16 Jul 2008 21:57:33 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 17 Jul 2008 02:57:33 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT42 KNHC 170244 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 56 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2008 BERTHA'S SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY DEGRADE DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS PRODUCING VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION AND THERE ARE VIRTUALLY NO CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -50 DEGREES C. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED TO 45 KT...HOWEVER A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT 2156 UTC SUGGESTS THAT THE WINDS REMAIN 55-60 KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS UNCHANGED. ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE PREDICTS LITTLE CHANGE IN BERTHA'S STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING AS SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK COOL AND THE SHEAR INCREASES. BERTHA IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. BERTHA IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TO THE SOUTHEAST...140/7. LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS AS BERTHA IS PREDICTED TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD...THEN EASTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THEREAFTER...THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION...BUT AT VARYING FORWARD SPEEDS. HOWEVER...THE MOST RECENT TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT THAN 6 HOURS AGO. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...12Z UKMET...AND GFDL...BUT IS SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE 34 AND 50 KT WIND RADII OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE WERE EXPANDED BASED ON THE SCATTEROMETER DATA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0300Z 35.4N 59.8W 60 KT 12HR VT 17/1200Z 34.6N 58.9W 60 KT 24HR VT 18/0000Z 34.5N 56.8W 60 KT 36HR VT 18/1200Z 35.5N 54.4W 55 KT 48HR VT 19/0000Z 37.6N 51.7W 55 KT 72HR VT 20/0000Z 42.5N 45.7W 50 KT 96HR VT 21/0000Z 48.0N 39.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 22/0000Z 54.5N 30.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER BROWN WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 17 01:47:02 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6H6l2w3004036 for ; Thu, 17 Jul 2008 01:47:02 -0500 Message-Id: <200807170647.m6H6l2w3004036@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 17 Jul 2008 01:47:02 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 17 Jul 2008 06:47:02 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 170545 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT THU JUL 17 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 360 MILES NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 20-25 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ARE EXPECTED SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATE TODAY...IF NECESSARY. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. ALTHOUGH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY POORLY ORGANIZED... UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A CHANCE TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA LATER TODAY OR EARLY FRIDAY. REGARDLESS...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 17 02:22:03 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6H7M3w3004227 for ; Thu, 17 Jul 2008 02:22:03 -0500 Message-Id: <200807170722.m6H7M3w3004227@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 17 Jul 2008 02:22:02 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 17 Jul 2008 07:22:03 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 170721 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 221 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2008 ALZ056-059-061>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ079-171000- CONECUH-ESCAMBIA-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EVERGREEN...ATMORE...BREWTON... EAST BREWTON...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE... TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY... SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA... FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY... MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW... WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE... EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO...LUCEDALE 221 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2008 NOW... THROUGH 5 AM...AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA WHILE PATCHES OF LIGHT FOG PERSIST ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 17 03:10:03 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6H8A3w3004476 for ; Thu, 17 Jul 2008 03:10:03 -0500 Message-Id: <200807170810.m6H8A3w3004476@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 17 Jul 2008 03:10:03 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 17 Jul 2008 08:10:03 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 170808 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 408 AM EDT THU JUL 17 2008 FLZ008-010-012>014-GMZ750-770-171015- COASTAL WALTON-WASHINGTON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...INWOOD...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY... FIVE POINTS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY...LYNN HAVEN... UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY...PORT ST. JOE... WEWAHITCHKA 408 AM EDT THU JUL 17 2008 /308 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 5 AM CDT...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 15 MILES WIDE AND 40 MILES LONG...EXTENDING FROM 30 TO 70 MILES SOUTH OF LAGUNA BEACH...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 20 MPH. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...FROM AROUND 40 TO 70 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE SAN BLAS...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWEST AT 20 MPH. $$ DUVAL This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 17 03:49:21 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6H8nKw3004688 for ; Thu, 17 Jul 2008 03:49:20 -0500 Message-Id: <200807170849.m6H8nKw3004688@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 17 Jul 2008 03:49:20 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 17 Jul 2008 08:49:21 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 170836 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 57 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 500 AM AST THU JUL 17 2008 ..BERTHA WEAKENS BUT CONTINUES MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD... AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.2 WEST OR ABOUT 355 MILES...575 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE EAST IS EXPECTED TODAY...AND A NORTHEASTWARD TURN WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST TODAY...FOLLOWED BY LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...34.5 N...59.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN  This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 17 03:49:22 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6H8nMw3004691 for ; Thu, 17 Jul 2008 03:49:22 -0500 Message-Id: <200807170849.m6H8nMw3004691@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 17 Jul 2008 03:49:21 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 17 Jul 2008 08:49:22 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT42 KNHC 170837 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 57 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 500 AM EDT THU JUL 17 2008 NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR APPEARS TO BE TAKING ITS TOLL ON BERTHA AS THE REMAINING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIMITED TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT AND A RECENT ASCAT PASS SUGGESTS THAT BERTHA'S WINDS HAVE INDEED DECREASED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO PERHAPS A GENEROUS 50 KT. ALTHOUGH BERTHA IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS TODAY...CONTINUED SHEAR SHOULD MEAN LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY. IN FACT...NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS PREDICTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE. BERTHA IS STILL MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 140/9. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS BEGINNING TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND BERTHA SHOULD TURN EASTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. THEREAFTER....BERTHA SHOULD GRADUALLY ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD. THE NEW FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS...OTHERWISE IT IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. BERTHA SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 3-4 DAYS AND COULD GET ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW IN ABOUT 5 DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0900Z 34.5N 59.2W 50 KT 12HR VT 17/1800Z 34.0N 58.0W 45 KT 24HR VT 18/0600Z 34.5N 55.7W 45 KT 36HR VT 18/1800Z 36.3N 53.2W 45 KT 48HR VT 19/0600Z 38.4N 50.2W 45 KT 72HR VT 20/0600Z 43.1N 44.3W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 21/0600Z 49.0N 37.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 22/0600Z 56.0N 27.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER BROWN WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 17 06:04:32 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6HB4Vw3005995 for ; Thu, 17 Jul 2008 06:04:31 -0500 Message-Id: <200807171104.m6HB4Vw3005995@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 17 Jul 2008 06:04:31 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Hazardous Weather Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 17 Jul 2008 11:04:32 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FLUS44 KMOB 171102 HWOMOB HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 603 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2008 ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078- 079-181200- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY- COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY- GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- 603 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2008 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND THE GULF COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA. DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON BUT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON BUT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 17 06:52:46 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6HBqkw3006283 for ; Thu, 17 Jul 2008 06:52:46 -0500 Message-Id: <200807171152.m6HBqkw3006283@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 17 Jul 2008 06:52:45 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 17 Jul 2008 11:52:46 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 171137 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT THU JUL 17 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 355 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMATION HAS LESSENED TODAY. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH. SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD WESTWARD OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA LATER TODAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. THIS ACTIVITY COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE YESTERDAY...BUT IT HAS A CHANCE TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 17 09:56:00 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6HEu0w3008009 for ; Thu, 17 Jul 2008 09:56:00 -0500 Message-Id: <200807171456.m6HEu0w3008009@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 17 Jul 2008 09:56:00 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 17 Jul 2008 14:56:01 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 171442 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 58 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 AM AST THU JUL 17 2008 ..BERTHA STILL ON TRACK AWAY FROM LAND... AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.4 WEST OR ABOUT 390 MILES...630 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 905 MILES... 1460 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A MOTION TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED LIKELY ON FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...34.2 N...58.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 17 09:56:00 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6HEu0w3008012 for ; Thu, 17 Jul 2008 09:56:00 -0500 Message-Id: <200807171456.m6HEu0w3008012@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 17 Jul 2008 09:56:00 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 17 Jul 2008 14:56:01 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT42 KNHC 171442 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 58 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 AM EDT THU JUL 17 2008 A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0912 UTC SUGGESTED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS OF BERTHA WERE ABOUT 50 KT AT THAT TIME. SINCE THEN...NEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE DECREASING...I'M HESITANT TO LOWER THE WINDS TOO MUCH BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT DATA AND THE RESILENCY OF THE SYSTEM. 50 KT WILL BE USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...IT IS TEMPTING TO LOWER THE WINDS A LITTLE MORE BEFORE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OCCURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS BELOW MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. BERTHA MAY BECOME A LARGE POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL LOW IN THE HIGH LATITUDES OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC BY DAY 5. THE STORM APPEARS TO HAVE TURNED TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 8 KT. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN ITS MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY TOMORROW AS IT IS STEERED AROUND A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND LITTLE CHANGE IS MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THEREAFTER THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS WHETHER A NEW MIDDLE-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL CAPTURE BERTHA...LIKE THE UKMET/ECMWF SHOWS...OR THE STORM WILL REMAIN A MORE SEPARATE ENTITY LIKE THE GFS/GFDL/HWRF SOLUTIONS. THE OFFICAL FORECAST LEANS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...SHOWING A LITTLE MORE TROUGH INTERACTION. BERTHA COULD BECOME ONE OF THE TOP 10 LONGEST-LIVED STORMS IN HISTORY IF IT SURVIVES UNTIL THE WEEKEND. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/1500Z 34.2N 58.4W 50 KT 12HR VT 18/0000Z 34.1N 56.9W 45 KT 24HR VT 18/1200Z 35.2N 54.5W 45 KT 36HR VT 19/0000Z 37.3N 51.8W 45 KT 48HR VT 19/1200Z 39.3N 49.1W 45 KT 72HR VT 20/1200Z 43.5N 43.0W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 21/1200Z 51.0N 34.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 22/1200Z 57.5N 22.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER BLAKE This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 17 12:59:22 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6HHxMw3009030 for ; Thu, 17 Jul 2008 12:59:22 -0500 Message-Id: <200807171759.m6HHxMw3009030@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 17 Jul 2008 12:59:22 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 17 Jul 2008 17:59:22 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 171758 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 390 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 200 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CURACAO IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH. WHILE CONDITIONS CURRENTLY DO NOT APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS INCREASED DURING THE DAY AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER THIS AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN VENEZUELA AND ADJACENT ISLANDS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA CONTINUES TO BE WELL-ORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE MOVING INLAND TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. THIS ACTIVITY COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED NEAR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 75 MILES EAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW DRIFTS TO THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 17 14:37:27 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6HJbRw3009815 for ; Thu, 17 Jul 2008 14:37:27 -0500 Message-Id: <200807171937.m6HJbRw3009815@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 17 Jul 2008 14:37:27 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 17 Jul 2008 19:37:28 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 171936 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 236 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2008 ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-172145- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY- GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM... MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN... PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE... LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON... ANDALUSIA...OPP...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE... TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY... SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA... FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY... MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW... WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE... EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT... NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE 236 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2008 NOW... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THROUGH 400 PM...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...AND OVER SOUTHWEST ALABAMA TO THE WEST OF INTERSTATE 65. BETWEEN 400 PM AND 600 PM...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT. THESE SEA BREEZE STORMS WILL INITIALLY MOVE VERY LITTLE...BUT BEGIN TO MOVE OFF TOWARD THE WEST AS THEY BECOME BETTER DEVELOPED. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 17 15:47:35 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6HKlZw3010255 for ; Thu, 17 Jul 2008 15:47:35 -0500 Message-Id: <200807172047.m6HKlZw3010255@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 17 Jul 2008 15:47:35 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 17 Jul 2008 20:47:36 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 172040 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 59 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 500 PM AST THU JUL 17 2008 ..BERTHA TURNS TOWARD THE EAST... AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.2 WEST OR ABOUT 455 MILES...730 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 905 MILES... 1455 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...34.0 N...57.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 17 15:47:45 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6HKljw3010263 for ; Thu, 17 Jul 2008 15:47:45 -0500 Message-Id: <200807172047.m6HKljw3010263@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 17 Jul 2008 15:47:45 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 17 Jul 2008 20:47:46 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT42 KNHC 172041 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 59 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 500 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2008 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT BERTHA IS MAINTAINING ITS STRUCTURE AS A TROPICAL STORM WITH DEFINED BANDING FEATURES AND OUTFLOW ALOFT. CONVECTION HAS BEEN WELL-MAINTAINED...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE STORM. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 50 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE STORM REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE SHEAR AND WANING SSTS. THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS SHOULD START SHORTLY AFTER 48 HR DUE TO AN INCREASE IN SHEAR AND MORE RAPIDLY DECREASING SSTS...AND BY 120 HR...THE REMNANTS OF BERTHA WILL LIKELY BE ABSORBED INTO A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW. THE STORM HAS MADE AN EASTWARD TURN AND IS MOVING ABOUT 090/10. A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE EAST OF BERTHA SHOULD STEER THE STORM MORE TO THE NORTHEAST TOMORROW...FOLLOWING CLOSE BEHIND A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS NORTH. MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON AN ACCELERATING PATH OUT TO SEA. THE GFS HAS CHANGED FROM THE SOUTH TO NORTH SIDE OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS...NOW SHOWING MORE INTERACTION WITH A NEW MIDDLE-LATITUDE TROUGH IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE CONSENSUS AND IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. TO CLARIFY A PREVIOUS DISCUSSION COMMENT...BERTHA COULD BECOME ONE OF THE TOP 10 LONGEST-LIVED ATLANTIC STORMS...IN TERMS OF DAYS AS A TROPICAL STORM OR GREATER...IF IT SURVIVES UNTIL SUNDAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/2100Z 34.0N 57.2W 50 KT 12HR VT 18/0600Z 34.4N 55.6W 45 KT 24HR VT 18/1800Z 35.9N 53.3W 45 KT 36HR VT 19/0600Z 37.8N 51.0W 45 KT 48HR VT 19/1800Z 39.9N 48.3W 45 KT 72HR VT 20/1800Z 45.0N 41.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 21/1800Z 53.5N 30.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 22/1800Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 17 17:08:18 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6HM8Iw3010695 for ; Thu, 17 Jul 2008 17:08:18 -0500 Message-Id: <200807172208.m6HM8Iw3010695@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 17 Jul 2008 17:08:18 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 17 Jul 2008 22:08:18 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 172206 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 505 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2008 ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-172330- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY- GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM... MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN... PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE... LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON... ANDALUSIA...OPP...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE... TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY... SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA... FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY... MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW... WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE... EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT... NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE 505 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2008 NOW... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM REMAINS POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT. THESE SEA BREEZE STORMS WILL INITIALLY MOVE VERY LITTLE...BUT BEGIN TO MOVE OFF TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AS THEY BECOME BETTER DEVELOPED. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 17 18:51:03 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6HNp3w3011380 for ; Thu, 17 Jul 2008 18:51:03 -0500 Message-Id: <200807172351.m6HNp3w3011380@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 17 Jul 2008 18:51:03 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 17 Jul 2008 23:51:03 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 172347 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 455 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FOUND A BROAD CLOSED CIRCULATION BUT NO WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER. ADDITIONALLY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 20-25 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN VENEZUELA AND ADJACENT ISLANDS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING. WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE MOVING INLAND TONIGHT OR FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. THIS ACTIVITY COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES EAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA REMAINS LIMITED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...ESPECIALLY IF THE CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS OFFSHORE...AS IT DRIFTS TO THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER RHOME/ROBERTS WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 17 22:09:35 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6I39Zw3012675 for ; Thu, 17 Jul 2008 22:09:35 -0500 Message-Id: <200807180309.m6I39Zw3012675@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 17 Jul 2008 22:09:35 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 18 Jul 2008 03:09:35 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 180254 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 60 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 PM AST THU JUL 17 2008 ..BERTHA MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.4 WEST OR ABOUT 555 MILES...895 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 895 MILES... 1435 KM...SOUTH OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...33.9 N...55.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER RHOME This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 17 22:09:35 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6I39Zw3012678 for ; Thu, 17 Jul 2008 22:09:35 -0500 Message-Id: <200807180309.m6I39Zw3012678@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 17 Jul 2008 22:09:35 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 18 Jul 2008 03:09:35 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT42 KNHC 180253 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 60 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2008 BERTHA CONTINUES TO BE A RELENTLESS CYCLONE AS A NEW BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION RECENTLY FORMED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE THUS MAINTAINING THE OVERALL SATELLITE APPEARANCE. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER INCREASINGLY COLDER WATERS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING IN THE SHORT-TERM. BEYOND 48 HOURS...BAROCLINIC DYNAMICS AND POSSIBLE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION COULD RESULT IN SOME RESTRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE VARIOUS DYNAMICAL MODELS WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING BERTHA BECOMING A LARGE AND POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM WHILE OTHER MODELS SHOW A WEAKENING CYCLONE BEING ABSORBED INTO A LARGER NON-TROPICAL LOW. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS SLOW WEAKENING EARLY WITH A LITTLE RESTRENGTHENING AT DAYS 4 AND 5. BERTHA CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW RESULTING IN A TURN TOWARDS THE EAST...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 100/15. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT COMPLETES ITS ROTATION AROUND THE LOW AND THEN ENCOUNTERS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH AN ACCELERATING CYCLONE...TRACK GUIDANCE DIVERGES QUITE A BIT DUE TO THEIR DIFFERENT FORWARD SPEEDS. IN GENERAL...TRACK GUIDANCE IS FASTER THAN BEFORE BUT THEY HAVE NOT DEMONSTRATED GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS WHICH RESULTS IN A SLIGHTLY FASTER TRACK FORECAST THAN BEFORE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0300Z 33.9N 55.4W 50 KT 12HR VT 18/1200Z 34.8N 53.7W 50 KT 24HR VT 19/0000Z 36.7N 51.2W 45 KT 36HR VT 19/1200Z 38.8N 48.6W 45 KT 48HR VT 20/0000Z 41.2N 45.2W 40 KT 72HR VT 21/0000Z 47.0N 36.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 22/0000Z 56.0N 24.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 23/0000Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER RHOME WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 18 00:42:18 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6I5gIw3013643 for ; Fri, 18 Jul 2008 00:42:18 -0500 Message-Id: <200807180542.m6I5gIw3013643@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 18 Jul 2008 00:42:18 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 18 Jul 2008 05:42:18 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 180529 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 895 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA FROM CURACAO INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF CURACAO AND ARUBA. THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY SQUALLS MAINLY OVER WATER TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW. SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED AT THIS TIME BUT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. SINCE THIS SYSTEM HAS MOVED INLAND OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS NO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. THIS ACTIVITY COULD CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN GEORGIA COAST IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS MAINLY OVER WATER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM...ESPECIALLY IF THE LOW REMAINS OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT TO THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 18 03:17:02 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6I8H2w3014433 for ; Fri, 18 Jul 2008 03:17:02 -0500 Message-Id: <200807180817.m6I8H2w3014433@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 18 Jul 2008 03:17:02 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Hazardous Weather Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 18 Jul 2008 08:17:02 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FLUS42 KTAE 180813 HWOTAE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 413 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161- GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-190815- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON- JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN- CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL- IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE- DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- 413 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008 /313 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2008/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA... SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT... ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TODAY...MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM ALBANY GEORGIA TO PANAMA CITY FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH. DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE...BUT WILL INCREASE TO NEAR AVERAGE LATE NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP. $$ FOURNIER This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 18 03:45:31 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6I8jVw3014595 for ; Fri, 18 Jul 2008 03:45:31 -0500 Message-Id: <200807180845.m6I8jVw3014595@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 18 Jul 2008 03:45:31 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 18 Jul 2008 08:45:31 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 180833 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 61 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 500 AM AST FRI JUL 18 2008 ..TENACIOUS BERTHA REFUSES TO WEAKEN... AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.7 WEST OR ABOUT 825 MILES...1325 KM...SOUTH OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT BERTHA SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...34.8 N...53.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 18 03:45:31 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6I8jVw3014598 for ; Fri, 18 Jul 2008 03:45:31 -0500 Message-Id: <200807180845.m6I8jVw3014598@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 18 Jul 2008 03:45:31 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 18 Jul 2008 08:45:31 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT42 KNHC 180834 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 61 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 500 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008 TENACIOUS BERTHA CONTINUES TO HAVE A REMARKABLE WELL-DEFINED CLOUD PATTERN WITH A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE NORTH...AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE AND LIMITED OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 50 KNOTS...BUT IT COULD BE A LITTLE BIT STRONGER. AS BERTHA MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS IT SHOULD WEAKEN AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...BERTHA SHOULD BE FULLY EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 045 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS. IT APPEARS THAT FINALLY BERTHA WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A SHARP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AS INDICATED BY GUIDANCE. SOME MODELS MAKE BERTHA EXTRATROPICAL SOONER THAN OTHERS BUT THEY ALL LEAD TO THE SAME ENDING. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0900Z 34.8N 53.7W 50 KT 12HR VT 18/1800Z 36.6N 51.6W 50 KT 24HR VT 19/0600Z 39.0N 48.8W 45 KT 36HR VT 19/1800Z 42.5N 45.0W 45 KT 48HR VT 20/0600Z 46.0N 41.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 21/0600Z 54.0N 31.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 22/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE $$ FORECASTER AVILA This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 18 05:30:37 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6IAUbw3015664 for ; Fri, 18 Jul 2008 05:30:37 -0500 Message-Id: <200807181030.m6IAUbw3015664@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 18 Jul 2008 05:30:37 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Hazardous Weather Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 18 Jul 2008 10:30:38 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FLUS44 KMOB 181028 HWOMOB HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 523 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2008 ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078- 079-191200- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY- COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY- GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- 523 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2008 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND THE GULF COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA. DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS OR SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT. . DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HAZARDOUS OR SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 18 06:48:44 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6IBmiw3015860 for ; Fri, 18 Jul 2008 06:48:44 -0500 Message-Id: <200807181148.m6IBmiw3015860@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 18 Jul 2008 06:48:44 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 18 Jul 2008 11:48:44 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 181145 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 825 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA FROM CURACAO INDICATE THAT THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE WESTWARD AND IS NOW CENTERED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF ARUBA. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT AND A TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD FORM AT ANY TIME AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE WEST AT ABOUT 20 MPH. ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE WEATHER IS TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM...ISOLATED AREAS OF HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND ADJACENT ISLANDS TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. SINCE THIS SYSTEM IS CENTERED OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND WILL SPREAD HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...NICARAGUA....BELIZE AND GUATEMALA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS ACTIVITY COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE GEORGIA COAST IS PRODUCING THUNDERSHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS MAINLY OVER WATER. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE STEADILY FALLING IN THE AREA AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...ESPECIALLY IF THE LOW REMAINS OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB/AVILA WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 18 09:52:02 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6IEq2w3016374 for ; Fri, 18 Jul 2008 09:52:02 -0500 Message-Id: <200807181452.m6IEq2w3016374@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 18 Jul 2008 09:52:02 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 18 Jul 2008 14:52:02 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 181450 CCA TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 62...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 AM AST FRI JUL 18 2008 ..CORRECTED EXTRATROPICAL TO TROPICAL IN THIRD PARAGRAPH... ..BERTHA STRENGTHENS AND ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD... AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.3 WEST OR ABOUT 725 MILES...1170 KM...SOUTH OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BERTHA COULD BEGIN TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATE ON SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...36.2 N...52.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 18 09:52:02 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6IEq2w3016377 for ; Fri, 18 Jul 2008 09:52:02 -0500 Message-Id: <200807181452.m6IEq2w3016377@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 18 Jul 2008 09:52:02 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 18 Jul 2008 14:52:02 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT42 KNHC 181436 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 62 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008 BERTHA HAS A WELL-DEVELOPED CLOUD PATTERN...OCCASIONALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF TRYING TO FORM AN EYE. QUIKSCAT DATA FROM EARLIER SUGGEST MAXIMUM WINDS OF 50-55 KT AND...SINCE SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ALSO SUPPORT 55 KT...THE INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. KUDOS GO TO THE GFDL/HWRF MODELS WHICH CORRECTLY FORECAST THE RE-INTENSIFICATION OF THE STORM. HOWEVER...SSTS ARE NOW DECREASING IN THE PATH OF THE STORM...WHICH COULD LIMIT ANY FUTURE GROWTH OF THE SYSTEM. IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...SSTS QUICKLY DROP AND VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE...SO THIS COMBINATION SHOULD BEGIN A WEAKENING OF THE STORM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. THE INITIAL MOTION OF THE STORM IS 040/16. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AS THE STORM IS CAUGHT BETWEEN A BUILDING HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE MIDDLE-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...COLD NORTH ATLANTIC WATERS AND INTERACTIONS WITH A MIDDLE-LATITUDE TROUGH SHOULD START THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS. TRACK GUIDANCE IS ABOUT AS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AS IT CAN BE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/1500Z 36.2N 52.3W 55 KT 12HR VT 19/0000Z 38.1N 50.1W 55 KT 24HR VT 19/1200Z 41.0N 46.8W 55 KT 36HR VT 20/0000Z 44.2N 43.1W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 20/1200Z 48.0N 38.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 21/1200Z 57.0N 25.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 22/1200Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 18 10:37:54 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6IFbsw3016497 for ; Fri, 18 Jul 2008 10:37:54 -0500 Message-Id: <200807181537.m6IFbsw3016497@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 18 Jul 2008 10:37:54 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 18 Jul 2008 15:37:54 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WONT41 KNHC 181522 DSAAT SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1125 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008 THIS STATEMENT CONCERNS TWO TROPICAL WEATHER SYSTEMS. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER-ORGANIZED. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM HAS FORMED. ALL INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15-20 MPH. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST OFF THE COASTS OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA IS ALSO BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM TODAY OR TOMORROW. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY. ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTS OF GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE COAST. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 18 13:10:39 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6IIAdw3016926 for ; Fri, 18 Jul 2008 13:10:39 -0500 Message-Id: <200807181810.m6IIAdw3016926@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 18 Jul 2008 13:10:39 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 18 Jul 2008 18:10:39 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 181759 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 725 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE DISTURBANCE. A TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD FORM AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. ALL INTERESTS IN JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS JAMAICA TONIGHT. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. SINCE THIS SYSTEM IS CENTERED OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS... NICARAGUA...BELIZE AND GUATEMALA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CONTINUING TO INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST OFF THE COASTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT... AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY. ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTS OF GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE COAST. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 18 14:43:22 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6IJhMw3017149 for ; Fri, 18 Jul 2008 14:43:22 -0500 Message-Id: <200807181943.m6IJhMw3017149@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 18 Jul 2008 14:43:22 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 18 Jul 2008 19:43:22 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 181942 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 242 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2008 ALZ062-064-FLZ001>006-182130- UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA- INLAND SANTA ROSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA- COASTAL OKALOOSA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BAY MINETTE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE... FOLEY...SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA... FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY... MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW... WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE... EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO 242 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2008 NOW... ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ON THE COASTAL SEABREEZE BOUNDARY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. WHILE MOVING SLOWLY...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DEPOSITING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS THROUGH 430 PM. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS MINIMAL TO LOW. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 18 15:43:29 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6IKhTw3017391 for ; Fri, 18 Jul 2008 15:43:29 -0500 Message-Id: <200807182043.m6IKhTw3017391@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 18 Jul 2008 15:43:29 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 18 Jul 2008 20:43:29 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 182028 TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 63 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 500 PM AST FRI JUL 18 2008 ..BERTHA BECOMES A HURRICANE AGAIN... AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.6 WEST OR ABOUT 640 MILES... 1035 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BERTHA SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND BEGIN TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATE ON SATURDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...37.6 N...50.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 18 15:43:29 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6IKhTw3017394 for ; Fri, 18 Jul 2008 15:43:29 -0500 Message-Id: <200807182043.m6IKhTw3017394@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 18 Jul 2008 15:43:29 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 18 Jul 2008 20:43:29 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT42 KNHC 182029 TCDAT2 HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 63 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 500 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT BERTHA IS NOW A HURRICANE AGAIN. THE EYE HAS BECOME BETTER-DEFINED WITH DEEP CONVECTION INCREASING AROUND A CONSOLIDATING EYEWALL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 65 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SATELLITE CLASSIFICATION FROM SAB. BERTHA SHOULDN'T BE A HURRICANE FOR TOO LONG AS IT IS FORECAST TO BE OVER WATERS LESS THAN 70F BY THIS TIME TOMORROW. A SLOW WEAKENING IS INDICATED...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOST GUIDANCE. PHASE DIAGRAMS FROM FLORIDA STATE INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE SHOULD BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN A DAY OR SO...WITH THE PROCESS COMPLETE IN ABOUT 48 HR. BERTHA CONTINUES MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST...NOW AT ABOUT 19 KT. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING. THE HURRICANE SHOULD ACCELERATE OUT TO SEA IN A WELL-DEFINED STEERING CURRENT BETWEEN A HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE MIDDLE-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. MODEL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY SHOWING GREATER INTERACTION THAN EARLIER WITH BERTHA AND AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM NORTH AMERICA... RESULTING IN A SLIGHTLY MORE POLEWARD TRACK OF THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED WESTWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND AND LIES ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/2100Z 37.6N 50.6W 65 KT 12HR VT 19/0600Z 39.8N 48.2W 65 KT 24HR VT 19/1800Z 42.9N 44.8W 60 KT 36HR VT 20/0600Z 46.7N 40.6W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 20/1800Z 51.5N 36.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 21/1800Z 61.0N 23.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 22/1800Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 18 15:58:51 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6IKwpw3017484 for ; Fri, 18 Jul 2008 15:58:51 -0500 Message-Id: <200807182058.m6IKwpw3017484@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 18 Jul 2008 15:58:51 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 18 Jul 2008 20:58:51 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WONT41 KNHC 182043 DSAAT SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 445 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008 AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FOUND THAT THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NO LONGER HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM COULD STILL BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15-20 MPH. ALL INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BLAKE This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 18 17:16:19 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6IMGJw3018019 for ; Fri, 18 Jul 2008 17:16:19 -0500 Message-Id: <200807182216.m6IMGJw3018019@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 18 Jul 2008 17:16:19 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 18 Jul 2008 22:16:19 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 182215 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 515 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2008 ALZ061>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ075-076-078-079-190115- UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN- INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-PERRY-GREENE- STONE-GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE... TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY... SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA... FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY... MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW... WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE... EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT...NEW AUGUSTA... LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE 515 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2008 NOW...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING. MOVEMENT NORTH AT 5 MPH. A FEW WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN UP TO AN INCH PER HOUR...BUT AVERAGE RAINFALL RATES WILL BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH PER HOUR. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 18 18:46:54 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6INksw3019253 for ; Fri, 18 Jul 2008 18:46:54 -0500 Message-Id: <200807182346.m6INksw3019253@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 18 Jul 2008 18:46:53 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 18 Jul 2008 23:46:54 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 182337 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY-UPGRADED HURRICANE BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 640 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS FORMING. IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE... ADVISORIES ON A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL BE INITIATED AT 11 PM THIS EVENING. ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTS OF GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE COAST. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO BE WELL ORGANIZED...AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. INTERESTS IN JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND WILL SPREAD ACROSS JAMAICA TONIGHT. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. SINCE THIS SYSTEM IS CENTERED INLAND OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS... NICARAGUA...BELIZE AND GUATEMALA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 18 20:19:43 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6J1Jhw3019794 for ; Fri, 18 Jul 2008 20:19:43 -0500 Message-Id: <200807190119.m6J1Jhw3019794@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 18 Jul 2008 20:19:43 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2008 01:19:43 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 190118 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 818 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2008 ALZ059-062-064-FLZ001-002-190330- ESCAMBIA-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA- COASTAL ESCAMBIA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON... BAY MINETTE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY...SPANISH FORT... CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA...FERRY PASS...BRENT... WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY...MYRTLE GROVE 818 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2008 NOW...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE WEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. MOVEMENT NORTH AT 5 MPH. A FEW WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN UP TO AN INCH PER HOUR...BUT AVERAGE RAINFALL RATES WILL BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH PER HOUR. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 18 21:50:17 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6J2oHw3020318 for ; Fri, 18 Jul 2008 21:50:17 -0500 Message-Id: <200807190250.m6J2oHw3020318@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 18 Jul 2008 21:50:17 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2008 02:50:17 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 190235 TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 64 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 PM AST FRI JUL 18 2008 ..BERTHA STILL A HURRICANE... AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.8 WEST OR ABOUT 545 MILES... 875 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BERTHA SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND BEGIN TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS ON SATURDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...39.5 N...48.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 18 21:50:17 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6J2oHw3020321 for ; Fri, 18 Jul 2008 21:50:17 -0500 Message-Id: <200807190250.m6J2oHw3020321@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 18 Jul 2008 21:50:17 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2008 02:50:17 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT42 KNHC 190243 TCDAT2 HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 64 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008 CONVECTION AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF BERTHA'S EYE HAS WEAKENED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED...SO BERTHA REMAINS A 65 KT HURRICANE. BERTHA IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE MUCH LONGER AS IT WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS WITHIN THEN NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING AS BERTHA BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL IN 24-36 HOURS. BERTHA CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD WITH A FORWARD SPEED OF ABOUT 22 KT. BERTHA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON A NORTHEAST HEADING DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT IS SLIGHTLY FASTER. HOWEVER...THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE GFS...BUT IS AHEAD OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE FORECAST 34 KT WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED OUTWARD OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0300Z 39.5N 48.8W 65 KT 12HR VT 19/1200Z 42.0N 46.0W 60 KT 24HR VT 20/0000Z 45.4N 42.1W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 20/1200Z 50.2N 37.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 21/0000Z 55.4N 32.1W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 22/0000Z 63.5N 20.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 23/0000Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER BROWN WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 18 22:05:36 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6J35aw3020422 for ; Fri, 18 Jul 2008 22:05:36 -0500 Message-Id: <200807190305.m6J35aw3020422@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 18 Jul 2008 22:05:36 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2008 03:05:36 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT33 KNHC 190253 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008 1100 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008 ..TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA... AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 11 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER...AND FROM NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS TO OREGON INLET. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.6 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES...105 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 330 MILES...530 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS...KEEPING THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION VERY CLOSE TO THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SATURDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS. REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...31.9 N...79.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 18 22:05:36 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6J35aw3020425 for ; Fri, 18 Jul 2008 22:05:36 -0500 Message-Id: <200807190305.m6J35aw3020425@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 18 Jul 2008 22:05:36 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2008 03:05:37 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT43 KNHC 190257 TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008 1100 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008 OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED WITH AMPLE MID-LEVEL ROTATION. PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FROM A SKIDAWAY INSTITUTE OF OCEANOGRAPHY 50 METER TOWER A SHORT DISTANCE WEST OF THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED SINCE THIS AFTERNOON. CONSEQUENTLY...ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE. THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS...EITHER FROM COASTAL RADAR OR SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...THAT THE SYSTEM HAS ACQUIRED MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG WINDS YET...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 040/5. STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK...WITH THE DEPRESSION SITTING BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS AND A WEAKER ONE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WILL CONTINUE...VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS... FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WITH A GRADUAL ACCELERATION INTO THE WESTERLIES BEFORE THE SYSTEM BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE NEXT MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE CONSENSUS OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH I'LL NOTE THAT BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF HAVE TRACKS THAT ESSENTIALLY STRADDLE THE COASTLINE. BECAUSE THE FORECAST TRACK IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE COASTLINE...IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT A POSSIBLE LANDFALL LOCATION AT THIS TIME. THE ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT SEEM CONDUCIVE TO RAPID DEVELOPMENT. THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE SOMEWHAT DIVERGENT...BUT THERE IS A LOT OF DRY AIR NEARBY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. EXCEPT FOR THE CLIMATOLOGY AND PERSISTENCE MODEL SHIFOR...NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE MAKES THE SYSTEM A TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER...THE SHIPS FORECAST SEEMS TO BE BASED ON SSTS THAT LOOK AT LEAST 1C COOLER THAN WHAT THE COASTAL BUOYS ARE REPORTING RIGHT NOW...SO I'M GOING TO GO A LITTLE ABOVE THAT GUIDANCE AND SHOW JUST ENOUGH STRENGTHENING TO MAKE THE SYSTEM A TROPICAL STORM. THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITIES REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0300Z 31.9N 79.6W 25 KT 12HR VT 19/1200Z 32.4N 79.1W 30 KT 24HR VT 20/0000Z 33.4N 78.0W 35 KT 36HR VT 20/1200Z 34.4N 76.6W 35 KT 48HR VT 21/0000Z 35.5N 75.0W 35 KT 72HR VT 22/0000Z 38.0N 70.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 23/0000Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Fri Jul 18 22:36:12 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6J3aCw3020601 for ; Fri, 18 Jul 2008 22:36:12 -0500 Message-Id: <200807190336.m6J3aCw3020601@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Fri, 18 Jul 2008 22:36:12 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2008 03:36:12 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT33 KNHC 190335 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008 1100 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008 CORRECTED TO ALTER WATCH/WARNING INFORMATION ..TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA... AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 11 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.6 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES...105 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 330 MILES...530 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS...KEEPING THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION VERY CLOSE TO THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SATURDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS. REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...31.9 N...79.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 19 00:53:39 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6J5rdw3021303 for ; Sat, 19 Jul 2008 00:53:39 -0500 Message-Id: <200807190553.m6J5rdw3021303@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2008 00:53:39 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2008 05:53:39 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT33 KNHC 190538 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008 200 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008 ..TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES...90 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 305 MILES...490 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS...KEEPING THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION VERY CLOSE TO THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS. REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...32.2 N...79.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 19 00:53:39 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6J5rdw3021306 for ; Sat, 19 Jul 2008 00:53:39 -0500 Message-Id: <200807190553.m6J5rdw3021306@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2008 00:53:39 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2008 05:53:40 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 190543 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE BERTHA LOCATED ABOUT 545 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND AND ON NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE CENTERED 55 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. INTERESTS IN JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL AMERICA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY WELL INLAND AND TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF BELIZE...GUATEMALA AND EL SALDAOR. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT33 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3. $$ FORECASTER AVILA WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 19 02:55:00 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6J7t0w3021970 for ; Sat, 19 Jul 2008 02:55:00 -0500 Message-Id: <200807190755.m6J7t0w3021970@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2008 02:55:00 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Hazardous Weather Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2008 07:55:01 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FLUS42 KTAE 190753 HWOTAE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 353 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161- GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-200800- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON- JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN- CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL- IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE- DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- 353 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008 /253 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2008/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA... SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT... ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ALBANY GEORGIA TO TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA. CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY MID TO LATE WEEK. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY. SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP. $$ FOURNIER This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 19 03:41:39 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6J8fdw3022351 for ; Sat, 19 Jul 2008 03:41:39 -0500 Message-Id: <200807190841.m6J8fdw3022351@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2008 03:41:39 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2008 08:41:39 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 190829 TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 65 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 500 AM AST SAT JUL 19 2008 ..BERTHA REFUSES TO WEAKEN...STILL A HURRICANE... AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.4 WEST OR ABOUT 475 MILES... 765 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BERTHA SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND BEGIN TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATER TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...41.2 N...47.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 19 03:41:39 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6J8fdw3022354 for ; Sat, 19 Jul 2008 03:41:39 -0500 Message-Id: <200807190841.m6J8fdw3022354@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2008 03:41:39 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2008 08:41:39 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT33 KNHC 190831 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008 500 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008 ..TROPICAL DEPRESSION STILL POORLY ORGANIZED.... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.4 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES... 70 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 295 MILES...475 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS...KEEPING THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION VERY CLOSE TO THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSIBLE AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS. REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...32.4 N...79.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 19 03:41:39 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6J8fdw3022357 for ; Sat, 19 Jul 2008 03:41:39 -0500 Message-Id: <200807190841.m6J8fdw3022357@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2008 03:41:39 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2008 08:41:39 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT42 KNHC 190830 TCDAT2 HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 65 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 500 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008 BERTHA HAS REMARKABLY MAINTAINED ITS TROPICAL STRUCTURE WITH AN EYE SURROUNDED BY MODERATE CONVECTION. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 65 KNOTS BUT COULD BE A LITTLE BIT HIGHER...AS SUGGESTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB. I AM NOT GOING TO SPECULATE HOW MUCH LONGER BERTHA WILL KEEP ITS STRUCTURE BUT THE CYCLONE IS MOVING OVER COOL WATERS AND WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW. CONSQUENTLY...BERTHA HAS TO WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL...FAMOUS LAST WORDS. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 030 DEGREES AT 22 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UNTIL BECOME ABSORBED IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. TRACK GUIDANCE UNANIMOUSLY SHOWS THE HURRICANE ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0900Z 41.2N 47.4W 65 KT 12HR VT 19/1800Z 43.8N 44.8W 60 KT 24HR VT 20/0600Z 48.0N 40.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 20/1800Z 53.0N 35.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 21/0600Z 58.0N 28.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 22/0600Z...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER AVILA WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 19 03:41:39 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6J8fdw3022360 for ; Sat, 19 Jul 2008 03:41:39 -0500 Message-Id: <200807190841.m6J8fdw3022360@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2008 03:41:39 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2008 08:41:40 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT43 KNHC 190833 TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008 500 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008 SATELLITE...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF THE DEPRESSION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE BUT APPEARS TO BE ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 25 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST. NEVERTHERELESS...THE SYSTEM COLD BECOME A 35-KNOT TROPICAL STORM. AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL CHECK THE DEPRESSION LATER TODAY. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 035 DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS AND THIS MOTION IS UNCERTAIN SINCE THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UNTIL ABSORBED BY A SHORT WAVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0900Z 32.4N 79.4W 25 KT 12HR VT 19/1800Z 33.0N 78.7W 30 KT 24HR VT 20/0600Z 34.0N 77.3W 35 KT 36HR VT 20/1800Z 35.0N 76.0W 35 KT 48HR VT 21/0600Z 36.5N 73.5W 35 KT 72HR VT 22/0600Z 39.0N 69.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 23/0600Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER AVILA WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 19 05:41:56 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6JAfuw3023935 for ; Sat, 19 Jul 2008 05:41:56 -0500 Message-Id: <200807191041.m6JAfuw3023935@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2008 05:41:56 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Hazardous Weather Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2008 10:41:56 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FLUS44 KMOB 191041 HWOMOB HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 530 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2008 ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078- 079-201200- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY- COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY- GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- 530 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2008 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND THE GULF COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA. DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS OR SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT. . DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HAZARDOUS OR SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 19 07:00:09 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6JC09w3024592 for ; Sat, 19 Jul 2008 07:00:09 -0500 Message-Id: <200807191200.m6JC09w3024592@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2008 07:00:08 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2008 12:00:09 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT33 KNHC 191146 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008 800 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008 ..TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS A LITTLE.... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES...105 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 285 MILES...455 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...KEEPING THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION VERY CLOSE TO THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA. RADAR DATA FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES IN CHARLESTON AND WILMINGTON INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS. REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...32.3 N...79.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 19 07:00:09 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6JC09w3024595 for ; Sat, 19 Jul 2008 07:00:09 -0500 Message-Id: <200807191200.m6JC09w3024595@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2008 07:00:09 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2008 12:00:09 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 191150 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE BERTHA LOCATED ABOUT 475 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND...AND ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE CENTERED 65 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 MPH. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT33 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3. $$ FORECASTER AVILA WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 19 10:03:23 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6JF3Nw3026142 for ; Sat, 19 Jul 2008 10:03:23 -0500 Message-Id: <200807191503.m6JF3Nw3026142@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2008 10:03:22 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2008 15:03:23 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 191446 TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 66 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 AM AST SAT JUL 19 2008 ..BERTHA STILL A HURRICANE HEADING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD... AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 43.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.4 WEST OR ABOUT 450 MILES... 725 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/HR. A CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATER TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...43.1 N...45.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER KNABB WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 19 10:03:23 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6JF3Nw3026146 for ; Sat, 19 Jul 2008 10:03:23 -0500 Message-Id: <200807191503.m6JF3Nw3026146@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2008 10:03:23 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2008 15:03:23 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT42 KNHC 191451 TCDAT2 HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 66 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008 BERTHA IS STILL A HURRICANE...EVEN THOUGH IT IS NOW WELL PAST 40 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND OVER RATHER CHILLY SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES. A QUIKSCAT PASS AT AROUND 0820Z PRODUCED 25-KM-RESOLUTION RETRIEVED WIND SPEEDS AS STRONG AS ABOUT 60 KT IN DEEP CONVECTION...AND THESE COULD CERTAINLY BE UNDERESTIMATES. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 12Z REMAINED 65 KT...AND THAT IS THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. BERTHA'S LONG LIFE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS PROBABLY NEARING ITS END...HOWEVER...SINCE IT IS SO QUICKLY GAINING LATITUDE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR BERTHA TO BE AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND THEN BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER SYSTEM IN LESS THAN THREE DAYS. THE HURRICANE IS RACING ALONG AT 035/22...AND THE FORWARD SPEED WILL PROBABLY INCREASE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE CYCLONE ENTERS THE FULL-BLOWN MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING WHEN STEERING CURRENTS ARE THIS WELL-DEFINED. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK IS RIGHT ON THE PREVIOUS ONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/1500Z 43.1N 45.4W 65 KT 12HR VT 20/0000Z 45.9N 42.6W 60 KT 24HR VT 20/1200Z 50.5N 37.7W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 21/0000Z 55.7N 31.2W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 21/1200Z 60.8N 24.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 22/1200Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER KNABB WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 19 10:03:23 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6JF3Nw3026149 for ; Sat, 19 Jul 2008 10:03:23 -0500 Message-Id: <200807191503.m6JF3Nw3026149@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2008 10:03:23 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2008 15:03:23 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT43 KNHC 191447 TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008 1100 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008 THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS CONTINUING TO ORGANIZE AND IS NEARING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. RADAR VELOCITY DATA FROM CHARLESTON AND WILMINGTON SHOW THAT THE WIND FIELDS ALOFT ARE BECOMING BETTER- DEFINED AND INCREASING. IN ADDITION...SHIP PDNN REPORTED 30 KT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER AT 1200 UTC. THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE KEPT AT 30 KT IN THIS ADVISORY AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL BE IN THE AREA AROUND 1700 UTC TO DETERMINE IF THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME DRY AIR TO THE NORTH...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LOW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS. SURPRISINGLY... NEITHER THE GFDL NOR THE HWRF SHOW MUCH STRENGTHENING WITH THE DEPRESSION. WE'RE INCLINED TO THINK THAT SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...SO A SLOW INCREASE IN WINDS IS INDICATED...CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/SHIFOR GUIDANCE. DATA FROM BUOY 41004 HAS BEEN HELPFUL IN TRACKING THE DEPRESSION... WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE REFORMED A LITTLE TO THE EAST. BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 050/6. A WEAK MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE STORM SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE THE SYSTEM IN THIS GENERAL DIRECTION AND AT A SIMILAR SPEED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER... THE DEPRESSION WILL BE CAUGHT UP IN A STRONGER STEERING CURRENT BETWEEN A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A DEEPENING MIDDLE-LATITUDE TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TAKING THE SYSTEM NEAR THE SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA COASTS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...MOSTLY DUE TO THE CENTER REFORMATION...AND LIES ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/1500Z 32.6N 78.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 20/0000Z 33.3N 77.6W 35 KT 24HR VT 20/1200Z 34.2N 76.3W 40 KT 36HR VT 21/0000Z 35.1N 75.0W 45 KT 48HR VT 21/1200Z 36.5N 73.0W 45 KT 72HR VT 22/1200Z 40.5N 68.0W 45 KT 96HR VT 23/1200Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 19 12:34:13 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6JHYDw3027299 for ; Sat, 19 Jul 2008 12:34:13 -0500 Message-Id: <200807191734.m6JHYDw3027299@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2008 12:34:13 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2008 17:34:14 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 191732 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 1232 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2008 ALZ059>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ078-079-192000- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-STONE-GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON... ANDALUSIA...OPP...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE... TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY... SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA... FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY... MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW... WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE... EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE 1232 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2008 NOW... THROUGH 3 PM...AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES UNSTABLE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SLOWLY ALONG THE COASTAL SEA BREEZE. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG...LIKELY CONTAINING BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW. BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN THE CASE THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 19 12:34:13 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6JHYDw3027302 for ; Sat, 19 Jul 2008 12:34:13 -0500 Message-Id: <200807191734.m6JHYDw3027302@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2008 12:34:13 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2008 17:34:14 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 191732 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 1232 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2008 ALZ052>058-MSZ075-076-192000- WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-PERRY- GREENE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHATOM...MILLRY...JACKSON... THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN...PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD... MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE...LUVERNE...BRANTLEY... RICHTON...BEAUMONT...NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN 1232 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2008 NOW... THROUGH 3 PM...AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES UNSTABLE...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SLOWLY. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG...LIKELY CONTAINING BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW. BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN THE CASE THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 19 12:48:27 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6JHmRw3027381 for ; Sat, 19 Jul 2008 12:48:27 -0500 Message-Id: <200807191748.m6JHmRw3027381@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2008 12:48:27 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2008 17:48:28 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 191747 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 147 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161- GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-192000- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON- JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN- CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL- IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE- DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES... CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY... DAWSON...ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTER...ASHBURN... TIFTON...FITZGERALD...OCILLA...DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY... COLQUITT...NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM...MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS... NASHVILLE...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO...THOMASVILLE... QUITMAN...VALDOSTA...LAKELAND 147 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008 /1247 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 4 PM EDT (3 PM CDT)...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG HEATING CONTINUES...AND A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES SLOWLY INLAND. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN GENEVA COUNTY ALABAMA...AND OVER TURNER...IRWIN AND BEN HILL COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN GULF AND WESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES...AND SOUTHERN TAYLOR AND SOUTHERN LAFAYETTE COUNTIES IN FLORIDA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE EAST. $$ DUVAL This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 19 12:51:18 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6JHpIw3027406 for ; Sat, 19 Jul 2008 12:51:18 -0500 Message-Id: <200807191751.m6JHpIw3027406@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2008 12:51:18 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2008 17:51:19 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT33 KNHC 191746 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008 200 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008 ..CRISTOBAL FORMS OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.3 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES...160 KM...EAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 225 MILES...365 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA TODAY AND TOMORROW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS OVER NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION......32.8 N...78.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 19 13:06:38 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6JI6cw3027544 for ; Sat, 19 Jul 2008 13:06:38 -0500 Message-Id: <200807191806.m6JI6cw3027544@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2008 13:06:37 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2008 18:06:38 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT33 KNHC 191754 CCA TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008 200 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008 ..RETRANSMISSION... ..CRISTOBAL FORMS OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.3 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES...160 KM...EAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 225 MILES...365 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA TODAY AND TOMORROW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS OVER NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...32.8 N...78.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 19 13:06:38 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6JI6cw3027547 for ; Sat, 19 Jul 2008 13:06:38 -0500 Message-Id: <200807191806.m6JI6cw3027547@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2008 13:06:38 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2008 18:06:38 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 191757 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND...AND ON RECENTLY UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL... LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS ABOVE TROPICAL STORM FORCE. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM TO DETERMINE IF IT HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL AFFECT JAMAICA...PORTIONS OF CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TODAY AND TOMORROW. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT33 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 19 13:21:57 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6JILvw3027633 for ; Sat, 19 Jul 2008 13:21:57 -0500 Message-Id: <200807191821.m6JILvw3027633@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2008 13:21:57 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2008 18:21:57 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT33 KNHC 191808 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008 200 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008 ..CRISTOBAL FORMS OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.3 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES...160 KM...EAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 225 MILES...365 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA TODAY AND TOMORROW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS OVER NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...32.8 N...78.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 19 15:54:39 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6JKsdw3028121 for ; Sat, 19 Jul 2008 15:54:39 -0500 Message-Id: <200807192054.m6JKsdw3028121@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2008 15:54:39 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2008 20:54:39 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 192038 TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 67 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 500 PM AST SAT JUL 19 2008 ..BERTHA NOT YET GIVING IN...HURRICANE HEADED QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC... AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 44.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.3 WEST OR ABOUT 490 MILES... 790 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. BERTHA IS MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/HR. A CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...UNTIL BERTHA IS ABSORBED BY A LARGER WEATHER SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. VERY SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS BERTHA LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...44.8 N...43.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER KNABB WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 19 15:54:39 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6JKsdw3028124 for ; Sat, 19 Jul 2008 15:54:39 -0500 Message-Id: <200807192054.m6JKsdw3028124@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2008 15:54:39 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2008 20:54:39 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT33 KNHC 192048 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008 500 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008 ..CRISTOBAL STRENGTHENS OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.9 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES...195 KM...EAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 205 MILES...330 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL AND VERY CLOSE TO THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA TODAY AND TOMORROW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS. REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...33.0 N...77.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 19 15:54:39 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6JKsdw3028127 for ; Sat, 19 Jul 2008 15:54:39 -0500 Message-Id: <200807192054.m6JKsdw3028127@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2008 15:54:39 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2008 20:54:40 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT42 KNHC 192038 TCDAT2 HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 67 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 500 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008 RELATIVELY DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS ALL THE WAY AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER...AND DVORAK ESTIMATES AT 18Z SUPPORT MAINTAINING BERTHA AS A HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 65 KT. BERTHA IS CROSSING THE 20 DEGREE CELSIUS ISOTHERM...HOWEVER...AND IT SEEMINGLY CANNOT HOLD ON TO TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS MUCH LONGER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PRESUMES THAT EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL BE WELL UNDERWAY...ALTHOUGH PERHAPS NOT COMPLETE...BY 12 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM REACHES 17 CELSIUS WATERS...BUT AFTER THAT THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE FULLY EXTRATROPICAL. THIS EVOLUTION IS CONSISTENT WITH THE FSU PHASE SPACE ANALYSIS BASED ON THE GFS GLOBAL MODEL. DESPITE THE TRANSITION...THE WINDS WILL PROBABLY NOT FALL OFF VERY FAST...AND BERTHA WILL BE A LARGE AND POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE FOR TWO TO THREE DAYS UNTIL IT IS ABSORBED BY OR MERGES WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM CROSSING CANADA. THERE HAS BEEN NO DETECTABLE CHANGE TO THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 035/22. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST...ALONG ABOUT THE SAME HEADING...IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS MODEL. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/2100Z 44.8N 43.3W 65 KT 12HR VT 20/0600Z 47.9N 40.0W 60 KT 24HR VT 20/1800Z 52.9N 34.3W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 21/0600Z 58.0N 27.2W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 21/1800Z 62.5N 20.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KNABB This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 19 15:54:39 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6JKsdw3028130 for ; Sat, 19 Jul 2008 15:54:39 -0500 Message-Id: <200807192054.m6JKsdw3028130@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2008 15:54:39 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2008 20:54:40 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT43 KNHC 192049 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008 500 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008 THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER HAS FOUND MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 58 KT AT 2500 FT...CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 45 KT AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...SFMR DATA AT THAT SAME LOCATION SHOWED ONLY 35 KT AND CONVECTION HAS BEEN WEAKENING NEAR THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE VALUES AND IS SET TO 40 KT. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER WARM GULF STREAM WATERS AND EXPERIENCES LIGHT SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS INCREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO A SHIFOR/SHIPS CONSENSUS. STRANGELY...THE GFDL/HWRF STILL REFUSE TO INTENSIFY THIS SYSTEM. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/6. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS SYNOPTIC REASONING. A WEAK MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE STORM SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE THE SYSTEM AT ABOUT THE SAME HEADING AND SPEED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TAKING THE SYSTEM NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...THE DEPRESSION WILL MOVE FASTER TO THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A DEEPENING MIDDLE- LATITUDE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE MODELS DO DIVERGE A LITTLE ON WHETHER THE STORM WILL BE TURN A LITTLE MORE TO THE LEFT IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH OR STAY MORE SEPARATE FROM THAT FEATURE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A TAD FASTER AND A LITTLE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AFTER 36 HR...NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/2100Z 33.0N 77.9W 40 KT 12HR VT 20/0600Z 33.7N 77.0W 45 KT 24HR VT 20/1800Z 34.7N 75.6W 50 KT 36HR VT 21/0600Z 35.9N 73.9W 55 KT 48HR VT 21/1800Z 38.0N 71.3W 55 KT 72HR VT 22/1800Z 43.5N 64.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 23/1800Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 19 18:14:11 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6JNEBw3028512 for ; Sat, 19 Jul 2008 18:14:11 -0500 Message-Id: <200807192314.m6JNEBw3028512@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2008 18:14:11 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2008 23:14:11 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 192312 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 612 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2008 ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-200115- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY- GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM... MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN... PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE... LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON... ANDALUSIA...OPP...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE... TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY... SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA... FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY... MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW... WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE... EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT... NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE 612 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2008 NOW... THROUGH 9 PM...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AND WEAKEN SLOWLY ALONG THE COASTAL SEA BREEZE. RAINFALL LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR WITH ISOLATED RAINFALL MORE THAN A HALF INCH PER HOUR. ALTHOUGH THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW...A FEW STORMS COULD BRING BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO SHELTER IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 19 18:42:39 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6JNgdw3028586 for ; Sat, 19 Jul 2008 18:42:39 -0500 Message-Id: <200807192342.m6JNgdw3028586@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2008 18:42:39 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2008 23:42:39 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 192331 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 490 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND...AND ON TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL...LOCATED ABOUT 130 MILES EAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FOUND THAT THE SYSTEM STILL DOES NOT HAVE A CLOSED CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE WAVE CONTINUES TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS AND IS PRODUCING WINDS OF 40-45 MPH TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL AFFECT JAMAICA...PORTIONS OF CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TODAY AND TOMORROW. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 19 18:57:58 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6JNvww3028626 for ; Sat, 19 Jul 2008 18:57:58 -0500 Message-Id: <200807192357.m6JNvww3028626@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2008 18:57:57 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2008 23:57:58 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT33 KNHC 192347 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008 800 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008 ..CRISTOBAL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES...210 KM...EAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 185 MILES...300 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...10 KM/HR. A CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL AND VERY CLOSE TO THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS. REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...33.2 N...77.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 19 22:01:15 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6K31Fw3029105 for ; Sat, 19 Jul 2008 22:01:15 -0500 Message-Id: <200807200301.m6K31Fw3029105@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2008 22:01:15 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 03:01:15 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 200255 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 68 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 PM AST SAT JUL 19 2008 ..BERTHA WEAKENS... AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 45.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.8 WEST OR ABOUT 545 MILES...875 KM...EAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/HR. A CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...UNTIL BERTHA IS ABSORBED BY A LARGER WEATHER SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. VERY SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE BERTHA BEGINS TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...45.7 N...41.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 19 22:01:15 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6K31Fw3029108 for ; Sat, 19 Jul 2008 22:01:15 -0500 Message-Id: <200807200301.m6K31Fw3029108@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2008 22:01:15 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 03:01:15 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT33 KNHC 200250 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008 1100 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008 ..CRISTOBAL PARALLELING THE COAST... AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET SOUTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.5 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES... 70 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 170 MILES...270 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. A CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL AND VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2-3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...33.4 N...77.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 19 22:01:15 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6K31Fw3029111 for ; Sat, 19 Jul 2008 22:01:15 -0500 Message-Id: <200807200301.m6K31Fw3029111@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2008 22:01:15 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 03:01:16 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT42 KNHC 200257 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 68 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF BERTHA HAS DEGRADED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH THE CONVECTION BECOMING LESS SYMMETRIC AND BEGINNING TO WARM. THE EYE THAT WAS VISIBLE SIX HOURS AGO IS GONE. DVORAK T NUMBERS ARE DECREASING...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 60 KT. FORECAST TO BE OVER 11C WATERS IN ABOUT 18 HOURS...BERTHA SHOULD NOT BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BEYOND MIDDAY TOMORROW. DESPITE THE TRANSITION...THE WINDS WILL PROBABLY NOT FALL OFF VERY FAST...AND BERTHA WILL BE A LARGE AND POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE FOR TWO TO THREE DAYS UNTIL IT IS ABSORBED BY OR MERGES WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM CROSSING CANADA. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/21...ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE. AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST...IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH A TIGHTLY-PACKED MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0300Z 45.7N 41.8W 60 KT 12HR VT 20/1200Z 49.8N 37.4W 55 KT 24HR VT 21/0000Z 55.0N 31.4W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 21/1200Z 60.1N 24.8W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 22/0000Z 64.0N 18.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 23/0000Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sat Jul 19 22:01:15 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6K31Fw3029114 for ; Sat, 19 Jul 2008 22:01:15 -0500 Message-Id: <200807200301.m6K31Fw3029114@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2008 22:01:15 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 03:01:16 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT43 KNHC 200251 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008 1100 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008 SATELLITE...RADAR...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW NO INDICATION THAT CRISTOBAL HAS STRENGTHENED THIS EVENING. CURRENTLY THE STORM IS CONVECTIVELY CHALLENGED...WITH THE COLD TOPS LIMITED TO A COUPLE OF BANDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT PENDING THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT AIRCRAFT AROUND 06Z. THE MORE OBVIOUS ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS DO FAVOR SOME STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THESE BEING LIGHT SHEAR AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...AND WARM WATERS BELOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PRIMARILY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE. AT PRESENT THE WIND FIELD IS VERY ASYMMETRIC. HOWEVER...IF THE FORECAST STRENGTHENING OCCURS...CRISTOBAL COULD WRAP SOME OF THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. THERE HAS BEEN NO MAJOR CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 045/5. CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD... VERY CLOSE TO THE COASTLINE...AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WITH SOME ACCELERATION AS IT ENTERS THE WESTERLIES. ONLY THE NOGAPS AND GFNI TAKE CRISTOBAL CLOSE TO EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT CRISTOBAL WILL BECOME ABSORBED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...ALTHOUGH I'VE ELECTED TO SHOW THE SYSTEM AS A SEPARATE ENTITY A LITTLE BIT LONGER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0300Z 33.4N 77.5W 40 KT 12HR VT 20/1200Z 34.1N 76.6W 45 KT 24HR VT 21/0000Z 35.2N 75.1W 50 KT 36HR VT 21/1200Z 36.8N 73.0W 55 KT 48HR VT 22/0000Z 39.0N 70.0W 45 KT 72HR VT 23/0000Z 45.0N 63.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 24/0000Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 20 01:04:30 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6K64Uw3029727 for ; Sun, 20 Jul 2008 01:04:30 -0500 Message-Id: <200807200604.m6K64Uw3029727@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 01:04:30 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 06:04:30 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT33 KNHC 200557 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008 200 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008 ..CRISTOBAL MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...HAS NOT STRENGTHENED... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.4 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES... 60 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 150 MILES...240 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. A GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL AND VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...33.7 N...77.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 20 01:04:33 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6K64Xw3029733 for ; Sun, 20 Jul 2008 01:04:33 -0500 Message-Id: <200807200604.m6K64Xw3029733@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 01:04:33 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 06:04:33 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 200559 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPIUCAL STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 545 MILES EAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND... AND ON TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL...LOCATED ABOUT 35 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA. THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS TO GALE FORCE IN SQUALLS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL AFFECT JAMAICA...PORTIONS OF CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TODAY. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO GENERATE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER PASCH This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 20 02:46:29 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6K7kTw3029981 for ; Sun, 20 Jul 2008 02:46:29 -0500 Message-Id: <200807200746.m6K7kTw3029981@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 02:46:29 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Hazardous Weather Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 07:46:30 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FLUS42 KTAE 200743 HWOTAE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 343 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161- GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-210745- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON- JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN- CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL- IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE- DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- 343 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008 /243 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2008/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA... SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT... A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TODAY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS... BUT THE FEW STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. IT WILL BE HOT TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 100 DEGREES INLAND. HOWEVER THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE AND HEAT INDEXES WILL NOT BE MUCH HIGHER THAN THE ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURE. DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY. SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP. $$ FOURNIER This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 20 04:07:46 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6K97kw3030192 for ; Sun, 20 Jul 2008 04:07:46 -0500 Message-Id: <200807200907.m6K97kw3030192@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 04:07:46 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 09:07:47 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 200855 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 69 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 500 AM AST SUN JUL 20 2008 ..BERTHA MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...ABOUT TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS... AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 48.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.9 WEST OR ABOUT 670 MILES...1080 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 30 MPH...48 KM/HR...AND A A GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BERTHA WILL LIKELY BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM LATER THIS MORNING...AND VERY SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...48.5 N...38.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 30 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER PASCH WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 20 04:07:47 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6K97lw3030197 for ; Sun, 20 Jul 2008 04:07:47 -0500 Message-Id: <200807200907.m6K97lw3030197@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 04:07:47 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Forecast/Advisory X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 09:07:48 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT22 KNHC 200854 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 69 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 0900 UTC SUN JUL 20 2008 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 48.5N 38.9W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 26 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 100SE 50SW 25NW. 34 KT.......150NE 200SE 100SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 330SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 48.5N 38.9W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 47.6N 40.0W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 52.5N 34.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 100SE 50SW 25NW. 34 KT...150NE 200SE 100SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 58.0N 28.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 125SE 50SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 300SE 150SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 63.0N 21.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 125SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 300SE 150SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 67.0N 15.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 125SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 300SE 150SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 48.5N 38.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 20 04:07:47 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6K97lw3030194 for ; Sun, 20 Jul 2008 04:07:47 -0500 Message-Id: <200807200907.m6K97lw3030194@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 04:07:46 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 09:07:49 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT33 KNHC 200854 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008 500 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008 ..CRISTOBAL MOVING NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...HAS NOT STRENGTHENED YET... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.2 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES... 95 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 130 MILES...210 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. A GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL AND VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA TODAY AND BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST BY MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NORTH CAROLINA COAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...33.9 N...77.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 20 04:07:49 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6K97lw3030200 for ; Sun, 20 Jul 2008 04:07:47 -0500 Message-Id: <200807200907.m6K97lw3030200@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 04:07:47 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 09:07:50 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT42 KNHC 200856 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 69 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 500 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008 ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION IS NOT VERY DEEP...THE CLOUD PATTERN OF BERTHA STILL LOOKS SOMEWHAT SYMMETRIC...I.E. TROPICAL...AND A SHIP WITH CALL SIGN WDC6925 REPORTED 44 KT WINDS NOT FAR FROM THE CENTER...WHICH IS ALSO INDICATIVE OF A TROPICAL STRUCTURE. PHASE SPACE ANALYSES FROM FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY USING THE GFS FORECAST FIELDS INDICATE THAT BERTHA WILL BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE VERY SOON...PROBABLY NOT LONG AFTER 1200 UTC TODAY. THE FORECAST SHOWS BERTHA'S EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT BECOMING ABSORBED BY 72 HOURS BUT GLOBAL MODELS FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT THIS EVENT COULD OCCUR SOONER. FOR NEXT DAY OR TWO...HOWEVER...THE POST-BERTHA CYCLONE SHOULD REMAIN A FAIRLY POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL STORM. BERTHA IS ACCELERATING AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW AROUND 035/26. AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES WITH THE FLOW ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF A BROAD MID-LATITUDE TROUGH...UNTIL THE SYSTEM MERGES WITH OR IS ABSORBED BY ANOTHER LOW. THE TRACK FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0900Z 48.5N 38.9W 60 KT 12HR VT 20/1800Z 52.5N 34.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 21/0600Z 58.0N 28.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 21/1800Z 63.0N 21.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 22/0600Z 67.0N 15.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 23/0600Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER PASCH This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 20 04:07:50 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6K97nw3030207 for ; Sun, 20 Jul 2008 04:07:49 -0500 Message-Id: <200807200907.m6K97nw3030207@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 04:07:49 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 09:07:51 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT43 KNHC 200858 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008 500 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF CRISTOBAL REMAINED UNIMPRESSIVE- LOOKING OVERNIGHT. THERE HAS BEEN VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER WITH THE PRIMARY BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WELL DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS FROM AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER DATA INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 KT. SOME SFMR READINGS FROM THE AIRCRAFT GAVE HIGHER SURFACE WINDS BUT THESE APPEAR TO BE ERRONEOUS DUE TO INTERFERENCE. ALTHOUGH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW LITTLE EVIDENCE OF DRY AIR...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME EVIDENCE OF MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BEING SHUNTED OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. 200 MB WIND FORECASTS FROM THE GFS SUGGEST A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND SOME INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL CONSENSUS. WITHIN 2-3 DAYS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LOSE STRENGTH DUE TO RAPIDLY INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AND LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD...040/5. CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED AS IT BECOMES PICKED UP IN THE FLOW AHEAD OF A BROAD MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH. BY 72-96 HOURS OR SOONER THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0900Z 33.9N 77.2W 40 KT 12HR VT 20/1800Z 34.7N 76.0W 45 KT 24HR VT 21/0600Z 35.8N 74.4W 50 KT 36HR VT 21/1800Z 37.5N 72.0W 55 KT 48HR VT 22/0600Z 40.2N 69.0W 45 KT 72HR VT 23/0600Z 47.0N 61.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 24/0600Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER PASCH This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 20 04:46:44 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6K9kiw3002251 for ; Sun, 20 Jul 2008 04:46:44 -0500 Message-Id: <200807200946.m6K9kiw3002251@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 04:46:44 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Hazardous Weather Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 09:46:44 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FLUS44 KMOB 200943 HWOMOB HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 450 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2008 ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078- 079-211200- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY- COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY- GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- 450 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2008 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND THE GULF COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA. DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS OR SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT. DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HAZARDOUS OR SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 20 06:55:48 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6KBtmw3002740 for ; Sun, 20 Jul 2008 06:55:48 -0500 Message-Id: <200807201155.m6KBtmw3002740@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 06:55:48 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 11:55:48 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT33 KNHC 201150 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008 800 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008 ..CRISTOBAL STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY...JUST OFFSHORE FROM NORTH CAROLINA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET AT THE SOUTH CAROLINA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.8 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES...65 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 105 MILES...170 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. A GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL AND VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA TODAY AND BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST BY TOMORROW. RECENT DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NORTH CAROLINA COAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...34.1 N...76.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER KNABB WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 20 07:11:07 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6KCB7w3002795 for ; Sun, 20 Jul 2008 07:11:07 -0500 Message-Id: <200807201211.m6KCB7w3002795@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 07:11:07 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 12:11:07 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 201159 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 670 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND...AND ON TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL...LOCATED ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS TO GALE FORCE IN SQUALLS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TODAY...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 325 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO GENERATE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER KNABB This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 20 10:14:20 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6KFEKw3003265 for ; Sun, 20 Jul 2008 10:14:20 -0500 Message-Id: <200807201514.m6KFEKw3003265@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 10:14:21 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 15:14:21 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT32 KNHC 201501 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 70 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 AM AST SUN JUL 20 2008 ..BERTHA BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC... AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 51.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.7 WEST OR ABOUT 850 MILES...1365 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND AND ABOUT 1020 MILES...1640 KM...SOUTHWEST OF REYKJAVIC ICELAND. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 36 MPH...57 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BERTHA HAS LOST TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...51.3 N...35.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 36 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB. THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER KNABB/BLAKE This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 20 10:14:21 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6KFELw3003268 for ; Sun, 20 Jul 2008 10:14:21 -0500 Message-Id: <200807201514.m6KFELw3003268@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 10:14:21 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 15:14:21 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT33 KNHC 201459 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008 1100 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008 ..CRISTOBAL STILL HUGGING THE COAST... AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTHWARD TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF SURF CITY TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.4 WEST OR ABOUT 15 MILES... 20 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 70 MILES...115 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE STORM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA TODAY AND TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...34.5 N...76.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER KNABB/BLAKE This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 20 10:14:21 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6KFELw3003271 for ; Sun, 20 Jul 2008 10:14:21 -0500 Message-Id: <200807201514.m6KFELw3003271@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 10:14:21 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Forecast/Advisory X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 15:14:21 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT22 KNHC 201500 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 70 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1500 UTC SUN JUL 20 2008 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 51.3N 35.7W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 31 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 150SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT.......150NE 200SE 100SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 330SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 51.3N 35.7W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 50.0N 37.0W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 55.2N 31.2W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 125SE 50SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 300SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 61.0N 24.3W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 125SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 300SE 150SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 51.3N 35.7W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER KNABB/BLAKE This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 20 10:14:21 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6KFELw3003274 for ; Sun, 20 Jul 2008 10:14:21 -0500 Message-Id: <200807201514.m6KFELw3003274@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 10:14:21 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 15:14:21 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT42 KNHC 201502 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 70 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008 BERTHA IS RAPIDLY LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE WIND FIELD HAS BECOME EXTREMELY ASYMMETRIC AND THE CONVECTION IS DIMINISHING NEAR THE CENTER. THUS BERTHA IS BEING DECLARED EXTRATROPICAL AND THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY. SHIP ABCC4 AND QUIKSCAT SUGGEST THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 KT. A SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST IN LINE WITH GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE. THE TRACK FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/1500Z 51.3N 35.7W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 12HR VT 21/0000Z 55.2N 31.2W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 21/1200Z 61.0N 24.3W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KNABB/BLAKE WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 20 10:14:21 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6KFELw3003276 for ; Sun, 20 Jul 2008 10:14:21 -0500 Message-Id: <200807201514.m6KFELw3003276@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 10:14:21 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 15:14:22 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT43 KNHC 201500 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008 1100 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008 EARLIER THIS MORNING...THE AIR FORCE PLANE REPORTED MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 54 KT...WITH SFMR MEASURMENTS OF ABOUT 45 KT. SINCE THEN...THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN SATELLITE IMAGES SO THE MAXIMUM WINDS WILL REMAIN 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS HAS SEEMINGLY PREVENTED CRISTOBAL FROM DEVELOPING MUCH CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THE GFS SUGGESTS A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND A LITTLE BIT OF INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AT THAT TIME. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL. THE INITIAL MOTION IS SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD...040/5. MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON AN ACCELERATING TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST AS CRISTOBAL BECOMES PICKED UP IN THE FLOW AHEAD OF A BROAD MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK. IN ABOUT TWO DAYS THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO START TO BECOME ABSORBED BY THE MIDDLE-LATITUDE TROUGH...AND BE FULLY ABSORBED BY 3 DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/1500Z 34.5N 76.4W 45 KT 12HR VT 21/0000Z 35.2N 75.3W 45 KT 24HR VT 21/1200Z 36.7N 73.2W 50 KT 36HR VT 22/0000Z 38.9N 70.2W 50 KT 48HR VT 22/1200Z 42.5N 65.9W 45 KT 72HR VT 23/1200Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER KNABB/BLAKE This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 20 10:44:56 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6KFiuw3003371 for ; Sun, 20 Jul 2008 10:44:56 -0500 Message-Id: <200807201544.m6KFiuw3003371@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 10:44:56 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 15:44:57 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT34 KNHC 201542 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DOLLY SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 1145 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008 ..FOURTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON FORMS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... AT 1145 AM EDT...1545 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1145 AM EDT...1545Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST OR ABOUT 270 MILES...435 KM...EAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO AND ABOUT 230 MILES...365 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO. DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A NORTHWESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY BEFORE DOLLY REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ON MONDAY ONCE DOLLY EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM FROM THE CENTER. DOLLY COULD PRODUCE WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA TODAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH A STORM TOTAL OF UP TO 8 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1145 AM EDT POSITION...18.4 N...84.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER KNABB WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 20 11:15:31 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6KGFVw3003464 for ; Sun, 20 Jul 2008 11:15:31 -0500 Message-Id: <200807201615.m6KGFVw3003464@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 11:15:32 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 16:15:32 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT44 KNHC 201608 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DOLLY SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 1145 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008 WE HAVE BEEN CLOSELY MONITORING THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE AS IT HAS CROSSED THE CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH SEVERAL AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE MISSIONS SEARCHING FOR A WELL-DEFINED CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION. NOT UNTIL THIS MORNING DID THE AIRCRAFT DETECT SUCH A CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM IS PRODUCING MORE THAN ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION REQUISITE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE...SO ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN PRODUCING WINDS OF 35-40 KT FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS OR SO...AND THIS MORNING THE SFMR ON THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED WINDS AS STRONG AS 42 KT...ALONG WITH WINDS OF 50 KT AT FLIGHT LEVEL. IN ADDITION...NOAA BUOY 42057...SITUATED SOUTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER...MEASURED SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE FOR ABOUT FOUR HOURS THIS MORNING...AS STRONG AS 39 KT. BASED ON THE ABOVE DATA...THE CYCLONE IS IMMEDIATELY DESIGNATED A TROPICAL STORM WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 40 KT. THIS IS CURRENTLY A SPRAWLING SYSTEM WITH 34-KT WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS EXTENDING WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH VERY RECENTLY CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/15...WITH STEERING PROVIDED BY A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA IN BETWEEN DOLLY AND CRISTOBAL. THAT RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS A RESULT...THE FORWARD MOTION OF DOLLY IS LIKELY TO BECOME SLOWER WHEN IT IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OVER NORTHERN YUCATAN AND THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THEN THE SPREAD IS GREATER ON DAYS 3-5...WITH SOME MODELS EVENTUALLY FORECASTING DOLLY TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN MEXICO...WHILE OTHERS HEAD INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS. THEY ALSO DISAGREE GREATLY ON HOW LONG IT MIGHT TAKE FOR DOLLY TO MAKE FINAL LANDFALL. THE MOST PRUDENT APPROACH FOR NOW IS FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE ARE TWO INHIBITING FACTORS FOR STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE OBVIOUS ONE BEING INTERACTION WITH THE LAND MASS OF YUCATAN TONIGHT. ALSO...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IMMEDIATELY TO THE WEST OF DOLLY IS IMPARTING SOME WIND SHEAR THAT IS PART OF THE REASON FOR SUCH AN ASYMMETRIC CLOUD PATTERN. THAT LOW...HOWEVER...IS HEADED SOUTHWESTWARD AND OUT OF THE WAY...AND WHEN DOLLY REACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO IT IS LIKELY TO FIND ITSELF BENEATH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...SO CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING OVER THE VERY WARM GULF WATERS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL SOLUTION OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM OVER THE WESTERN GULF...ALTHOUGH THE GFDL FORECAST OF A HURRICANE IN THAT AREA IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/1545Z 18.4N 84.2W 40 KT 12HR VT 21/0000Z 19.7N 86.3W 45 KT 24HR VT 21/1200Z 21.1N 89.5W 40 KT...INLAND OVER YUCATAN 36HR VT 22/0000Z 22.2N 92.2W 45 KT...OVER GULF OF MEXICO 48HR VT 22/1200Z 23.0N 94.0W 50 KT 72HR VT 23/1200Z 24.5N 96.0W 55 KT 96HR VT 24/1200Z 26.0N 97.5W 60 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 25/1200Z 27.0N 100.0W 35 KT...INLAND $$ FORECASTER KNABB WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 20 12:47:12 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6KHlCw3003707 for ; Sun, 20 Jul 2008 12:47:12 -0500 Message-Id: <200807201747.m6KHlCw3003707@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 12:47:12 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 17:47:12 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT33 KNHC 201744 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008 200 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008 ..CRISTOBAL WEAKENS A LITTLE... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF SURF CITY TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.1 WEST OR ABOUT 25 MILES...40 KM...EAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 50 MILES...80 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE STORM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA TODAY AND TONIGHT. DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AS REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...34.6 N...76.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 20 13:02:31 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6KI2Vw3003754 for ; Sun, 20 Jul 2008 13:02:31 -0500 Message-Id: <200807201802.m6KI2Vw3003754@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 13:02:31 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 18:02:31 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT34 KNHC 201758 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 200 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008 ..DOLLY ORGANIZING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN... AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.5 WEST OR ABOUT 250 MILES...400 KM...EAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO AND ABOUT 200 MILES...320 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO. DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A NORTHWESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY BEFORE DOLLY REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ON MONDAY ONCE DOLLY EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM FROM THE CENTER. DOLLY COULD PRODUCE WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA TODAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH A STORM TOTAL OF UP TO 8 INCHES. REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...18.6 N...84.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER KNABB WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 20 13:02:31 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6KI2Vw3003757 for ; Sun, 20 Jul 2008 13:02:31 -0500 Message-Id: <200807201802.m6KI2Vw3003757@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 13:02:31 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 18:02:32 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 201759 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS INITIATED ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM DOLLY...CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...HAS ISSUED ITS LAST ADVISORY ON BERTHA THAT IS NOW AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND...AND IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL...CENTERED ABOUT 25 MILES EAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER KNABB This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 20 13:31:15 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6KIVFw3003840 for ; Sun, 20 Jul 2008 13:31:15 -0500 Message-Id: <200807201831.m6KIVFw3003840@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 13:31:15 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 18:31:15 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 201830 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 230 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008 FLZ008-012-014-015-018-026>029-034-202045- COASTAL WALTON-BAY-GULF-FRANKLIN-JEFFERSON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR- LAFAYETTE-DIXIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...INWOOD...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...WHITE CITY...PORT ST. JOE... WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...MONTICELLO... SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS...PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO... CROSS CITY 230 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008 /130 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 445 PM EDT (345 PM CDT)...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SEA BREEZE LOCATED ACROSS COASTAL FLORIDA AND DRIFT INLAND. THE MAIN SHORT TERM FOCUS WILL BE ACROSS DIXIE COUNTY WITH A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTS TO 25 MPH. $$ BLOCK This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 20 14:18:06 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6KJI6w3004016 for ; Sun, 20 Jul 2008 14:18:06 -0500 Message-Id: <200807201918.m6KJI6w3004016@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 14:18:06 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 19:18:06 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 201914 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 214 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2008 ALZ051>060-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-202100- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM... MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN... PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE... LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON... ANDALUSIA...OPP...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT...NEW AUGUSTA... LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE 214 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2008 NOW... THROUGH 4PM...A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM CAN BE EXPECTED. MOVEMENT WILL BE SLOW. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 20 14:18:06 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6KJI6w3004019 for ; Sun, 20 Jul 2008 14:18:06 -0500 Message-Id: <200807201918.m6KJI6w3004019@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 14:18:06 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 19:18:06 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 201914 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 214 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2008 ALZ061>064-FLZ001>006-202100- UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN- INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE... TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY... SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA... FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY... MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW... WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE... EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO 214 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2008 NOW... THROUGH 4 PM...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE AFTERNOON COASTAL SEABREEZE. MOVEMENT WILL BE SLOW. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 20 14:32:22 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6KJWMw3004070 for ; Sun, 20 Jul 2008 14:32:22 -0500 Message-Id: <200807201932.m6KJWMw3004070@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 14:32:22 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 19:32:23 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 201931 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 331 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008 FLZ008-010-012>019-026>029-034-202145- COASTAL WALTON-WASHINGTON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON- JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...INWOOD...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY... FIVE POINTS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY...LYNN HAVEN... UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY...PORT ST. JOE... WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY 331 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008 /231 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 530 PM EDT (430 PM CDT)...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SEA BREEZE LOCATED ACROSS COASTAL FLORIDA AND DRIFT SOUTH. THE MAIN SHORT TERM FOCUS WILL BE ACROSS INLAND DIXIE...TAYLOR AND LAFAYETTE COUNTIES WHERE SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTS TO 25 MPH. $$ BLOCK This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 20 15:50:32 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6KKoWw3004287 for ; Sun, 20 Jul 2008 15:50:32 -0500 Message-Id: <200807202050.m6KKoWw3004287@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 15:50:32 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 20:50:33 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT33 KNHC 202043 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008 500 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008 ..CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO PARALLEL THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST... AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NORTH OF SURF CITY TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.8 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES... 75 KM...EAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 40 MILES... 60 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK CRISTOBAL WILL BE MOVING NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND HEADING AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES EARLY MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM FROM THE CENTER...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS NEAR 1 INCH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...34.7 N...75.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 20 15:50:33 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6KKoXw3004290 for ; Sun, 20 Jul 2008 15:50:33 -0500 Message-Id: <200807202050.m6KKoXw3004290@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 15:50:32 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 20:50:33 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT43 KNHC 202044 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008 500 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008 THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STORM. HOWEVER...THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 5000 FT HAVE BEEN NO HIGHER THAN 46 KT RECENTLY...NORMALLY CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 35 KT AT THE SURFACE. THE SFMR DID MEASURE 46 KT IN DEEP CONVECTION SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. GIVEN THE LACK OF PERSISTENCE IN THE CONVECTION DURING THE LAST DAY OR SO...WE'RE GOING TO USE A COMPROMISE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 40 KT. SOME INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM FIGHTS THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND REMAINS OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN BEFORE...BUT ABOVE MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD AT 7 KT...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE. THIS GENERAL TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASING FORWARD DUE TO FASTER STEERING CURRENTS BETWEEN A MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH TO THE EAST AND AN APPROACHING MIDDLE-LATITUDE TROUGH. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...A COMBINATION OF SSTS BELOW 20C AND A LARGE INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD FACILITATE AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF THE STORM. THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL PROBABLY ABSORB CRISTOBAL IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...THOUGH A FEW MODELS DO KEEP IT MORE SEPARATE FROM THE TROUGH. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GUIDANCE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/2100Z 34.7N 75.8W 40 KT 12HR VT 21/0600Z 35.9N 74.3W 45 KT 24HR VT 21/1800Z 37.9N 71.6W 45 KT 36HR VT 22/0600Z 40.8N 68.0W 45 KT 48HR VT 22/1800Z 44.0N 63.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 23/1800Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 20 16:05:51 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6KL5pw3004369 for ; Sun, 20 Jul 2008 16:05:51 -0500 Message-Id: <200807202105.m6KL5pw3004369@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 16:05:51 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 21:05:52 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT34 KNHC 202049 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 500 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008 ..DOLLY HEADING TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.0 WEST OR ABOUT 220 MILES...350 KM...EAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO AND ABOUT 165 MILES...265 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO. DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A NORTHWESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED BY TUESDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO TONIGHT...EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY...AND MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF ON TUESDAY. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT BEFORE DOLLY REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTER DOLLY EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM FROM THE CENTER. DOLLY COULD PRODUCE WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA TONIGHT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH A STORM TOTAL OF UP TO 8 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...18.9 N...85.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER KNABB This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 20 16:05:52 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6KL5qw3004372 for ; Sun, 20 Jul 2008 16:05:52 -0500 Message-Id: <200807202105.m6KL5qw3004372@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 16:05:51 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 21:05:52 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT44 KNHC 202053 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 500 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008 DOLLY APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY ORGANIZING OVER THE VERY WARM WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...ALTHOUGH DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOT QUITE AS WELL-DEFINED AS IT WAS THIS MORNING. DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND SFMR AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE INTENSITY AT 40 KT. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GRADUALLY EXPANDING...EVEN TO THE WEST...AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST WEST OF DOLLY IS HEADED RAPIDLY SOUTHWESTWARD AND IS WEAKENING. DOLLY IS NOT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN MUCH...IF AT ALL...AS IT CROSSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY TOMORROW. ONCE IT EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF... HOWEVER...IT WILL BE SITUATED BENEATH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AND OVER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF AT LEAST 28 CELSIUS. GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS...AND ASSUMING THE CYCLONE REMAINS INTACT AND VERTICALLY ALIGNED AFTER ITS PASSAGE OVER YUCATAN... STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. ALL OF THE PRIMARY OBJECTIVE INTENSITY MODELS FORECAST THAT TO HAPPEN...AND ALL FORECAST DOLLY TO ATTAIN HURRICANE STATUS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT GUIDANCE...BUT IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT LONG-RANGE INTENSITY FORECASTS HAVE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY. EVEN WITH THE AIRCRAFT DATA...THE INITIAL MOTION HAS BEEN A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO GAUGE...BUT IT IS ESTIMATED TO BE 305/12. THE MODELS FORECAST A SOMEWHAT FASTER FORWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LAGS A LITTLE BEHIND THE CONSENSUS DURING THAT PERIOD...GIVEN THE SLOWER INITIAL MOTION AND THAT THERE IS NO STRONG INDICATION FROM THE MODEL FIELDS THAT DOLLY SHOULD ACCELERATE MUCH. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE GULF COAST IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE MODELS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER DOLLY REACHES THE GULF...SO THEY ALL FORECAST A DECREASE IN FORWARD MOTION STARTING IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE TRACK MODEL SPREAD IS NOT ALL THAT LARGE THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THE CONSENSUS HAS NOT MOVED MUCH SINCE THIS MORNING...SO THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...JUST PERHAPS A LITTLE FASTER AT THE END. IT IS FAR TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE DOLLY WILL MAKE FINAL LANDFALL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/2100Z 18.9N 85.0W 40 KT 12HR VT 21/0600Z 20.1N 86.9W 45 KT 24HR VT 21/1800Z 21.6N 89.8W 45 KT 36HR VT 22/0600Z 22.9N 92.4W 50 KT 48HR VT 22/1800Z 23.8N 94.1W 55 KT 72HR VT 23/1800Z 25.0N 96.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 24/1800Z 26.0N 99.0W 35 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 25/1800Z 27.0N 101.5W 25 KT...INLAND $$ FORECASTER KNABB This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 20 17:08:01 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6KM81w3004605 for ; Sun, 20 Jul 2008 17:08:01 -0500 Message-Id: <200807202208.m6KM81w3004605@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 17:08:01 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 22:08:02 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 202205 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 505 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2008 ALZ051>060-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-210015- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM... MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN... PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE... LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON... ANDALUSIA...OPP...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT...NEW AUGUSTA... LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE 505 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2008 NOW... THROUGH 4 PM...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING 30 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM WIGGINS MISSISSIPPI TO CRESTVIEW FLORIDA. MOVEMENT WILL BE SLOW. HOURLY RAINFALL AVERAGES A TENTH OF AN INCH. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 20 17:08:02 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6KM82w3004608 for ; Sun, 20 Jul 2008 17:08:02 -0500 Message-Id: <200807202208.m6KM82w3004608@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 17:08:01 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 22:08:02 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 202205 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 505 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2008 ALZ061>064-FLZ001>006-210015- UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN- INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE... TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY... SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA... FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY... MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW... WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE... EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO 505 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2008 NOW... THROUGH 4 PM...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION. MOVEMENT WILL BE SLOW. HOURLY RAINFALL AVERAGES A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS WITH ISOLATED RATES OF NEAR THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH PER HOUR. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 20 18:23:20 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6KNNKw3004891 for ; Sun, 20 Jul 2008 18:23:20 -0500 Message-Id: <200807202323.m6KNNKw3004891@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 18:23:20 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 23:23:20 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 202316 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL...CENTERED ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA...AND ON TROPICAL STORM DOLLY...LOCATED ABOUT 165 MILES SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO. A VIGOROUS AND WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN AFRICA A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF DAKAR SENEGAL. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE VERY QUICKLY AFTER IT EMERGES INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 20 18:53:55 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6KNrtw3004971 for ; Sun, 20 Jul 2008 18:53:55 -0500 Message-Id: <200807202353.m6KNrtw3004971@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 18:53:55 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 23:53:56 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT33 KNHC 202352 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008 800 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008 ..CRISTOBAL A LITTLE STRONGER THIS EVENING...STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.4 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES...105 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 25 MILES...40 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK CRISTOBAL WILL BE MOVING MOVING AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY MONDAY. DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM FROM THE CENTER...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS NEAR 1 INCH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...34.9 N...75.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 20 19:09:14 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6L09Ew3005059 for ; Sun, 20 Jul 2008 19:09:14 -0500 Message-Id: <200807210009.m6L09Ew3005059@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 19:09:14 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 00:09:15 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT34 KNHC 202356 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 800 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008 ..DOLLY CONTINUES TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES...200 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO. DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A NORTHWESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED BY TUESDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO TONIGHT...EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY...AND MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF ON TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT BEFORE DOLLY REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTER DOLLY EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM FROM THE CENTER. DOLLY COULD PRODUCE WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA TONIGHT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH A STORM TOTAL OF UP TO 8 INCHES. REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...19.3 N...85.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 20 19:09:15 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6L09Fw3005062 for ; Sun, 20 Jul 2008 19:09:15 -0500 Message-Id: <200807210009.m6L09Fw3005062@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 19:09:14 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 00:09:15 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 210000 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008 CORRECTED TO ADD HEADER INFORMATION FOR DOLLY FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL...CENTERED ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA...AND ON TROPICAL STORM DOLLY...LOCATED ABOUT 165 MILES SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO. A VIGOROUS AND WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN AFRICA A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF DAKAR SENEGAL. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE VERY QUICKLY AFTER IT EMERGES INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON DOLLY ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT34 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON DOLLY ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT24 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 20 21:42:04 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6L2g4w3005924 for ; Sun, 20 Jul 2008 21:42:04 -0500 Message-Id: <200807210242.m6L2g4w3005924@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 21:42:04 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 02:42:05 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT33 KNHC 210240 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008 1100 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008 ..CRISTOBAL BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE OUTER BANKS... AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...ALL COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.0 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES... 45 KM...EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK CRISTOBAL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS NEAR 1 INCH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...35.2 N...75.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 20 21:57:24 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6L2vOw3006008 for ; Sun, 20 Jul 2008 21:57:24 -0500 Message-Id: <200807210257.m6L2vOw3006008@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 21:57:23 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Forecast/Advisory X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 02:57:24 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT24 KNHC 210251 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DOLLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 0300 UTC MON JUL 21 2008 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 85.8W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 210SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 85.8W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 85.3W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.9N 88.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.3N 90.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 50SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 23.4N 92.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 24.3N 94.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 40SW 75NW. 34 KT...175NE 150SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 25.5N 97.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 40SW 75NW. 34 KT...175NE 150SE 100SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 27.0N 100.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 85.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 20 21:57:24 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6L2vOw3006011 for ; Sun, 20 Jul 2008 21:57:24 -0500 Message-Id: <200807210257.m6L2vOw3006011@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 21:57:24 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 02:57:24 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT43 KNHC 210244 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008 1100 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008 AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE SFMR DATA INDICATED SURFACE WINDS OF 45 KT IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST QUADRANTS. CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTS AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION OVER THIS PARTICULAR AREA. AS A RESULT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED SLIGHTLY. NO CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST...WITH CRISTOBAL HOLDING ON TO THE CURRENT INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS...EVEN WHEN THE CYCLONE COMPLETES AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AROUND THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. THE INITIAL MOTION IS AGAIN SLIGHTLY FASTER...BUT ON A SIMILAR HEADING...045/8. CRISTOBAL SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE FORWARD SPEED IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH...WITH FURTHER ACCELERATION AS IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER WESTERLIES. DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING THAT CRISTOBAL WILL REMAIN A SEPARATE ENTITY A LITTLE BIT LONGER BEFORE BEING ABSORBED BY A BAROCLINIC SYSTEM...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE NEW FORECAST TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0300Z 35.2N 75.0W 45 KT 12HR VT 21/1200Z 36.5N 73.3W 45 KT 24HR VT 22/0000Z 38.9N 70.3W 45 KT 36HR VT 22/1200Z 41.9N 66.3W 45 KT 48HR VT 23/0000Z 44.7N 61.7W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 24/0000Z 46.0N 55.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 25/0000Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 20 21:57:24 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6L2vOw3006014 for ; Sun, 20 Jul 2008 21:57:24 -0500 Message-Id: <200807210257.m6L2vOw3006014@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 21:57:24 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 02:57:24 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT44 KNHC 210251 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 1100 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008 DATA FROM A NOAA P3 AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT DOLLY HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING. INDEED...THE SYSTEM PROBABLY DOESN'T HAVE A CLOSED SURFACE CENTER RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER...DOLLY IS MAINTAINING VIGOROUS CONVECTION AND THE STRONGEST WINDS...AS ESTIMATED BY THE SFMR...HAVE INCREASED TO 45 KT. SINCE DOLLY COULD REGENERATE A CENTER AT ANY TIME...NO GOOD WOULD BE SERVED BY HANGING ON A TECHNICALITY. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 305/12. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...PERHAPS DUE TO THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST OF DOLLY MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD...ENHANCING THE DEEP LAYER EASTERLIES. DOLLY SHOULD CONTINUE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER TEXAS. BY 72 HOURS...THIS RIDGE WEAKENS...AND SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLIGHT NORTHWARD TURN IN THE WESTERN GULF. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS MORE OF A STRAIGHT LINE TRACK BUT IS STILL VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF A VERY TIGHTLY PACKED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW MAY BE KEEPING DOLLY FROM ORGANIZING FOR NOW...BUT THIS SHOULD RAPIDLY BECOME A NON-FACTOR. ONCE THE SYSTEM ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...ALL GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING...WITH A LARGE ANTICYCLONE ALOFT...NO SHEAR...AND WARM GULF WATERS. THE QUANTITATIVE GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDS THE LGEM...SHIPS...AND GFDL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THERE WILL BE SOME DISRUPTION OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE YUCATAN...WHICH COULD BE AVOIDED IF A CENTER REFORMS TO THE NORTH WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION. INTERESTS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DOLLY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0300Z 19.6N 85.8W 45 KT 12HR VT 21/1200Z 20.9N 88.1W 45 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 22/0000Z 22.3N 90.8W 50 KT 36HR VT 22/1200Z 23.4N 92.9W 55 KT 48HR VT 23/0000Z 24.3N 94.5W 65 KT 72HR VT 24/0000Z 25.5N 97.0W 75 KT 96HR VT 25/0000Z 27.0N 100.0W 30 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Sun Jul 20 22:12:43 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6L3Chw3006116 for ; Sun, 20 Jul 2008 22:12:43 -0500 Message-Id: <200807210312.m6L3Chw3006116@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2008 22:12:43 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 03:12:44 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT34 KNHC 210257 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 1100 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008 ..DOLLY APPROACHES THE YUCATAN... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST OR ABOUT 180 MILES...290 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO AND ABOUT 95 MILES...150 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO. DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL HEADING WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TOMORROW. THE CENTER OF DOLLY IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EMERGE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TONIGHT...BUT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AFTER DOLLY ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM FROM THE CENTER. DOLLY COULD PRODUCE WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA TONIGHT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AND IN WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...19.6 N...85.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 21 01:00:45 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6L60iw3006968 for ; Mon, 21 Jul 2008 01:00:44 -0500 Message-Id: <200807210600.m6L60iw3006968@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 01:00:44 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 06:00:45 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT34 KNHC 210554 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 200 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008 ..DOLLY MOVING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH MEXICO. THIS TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. SATELLITE IMAGES...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR DATA FROM CANCUN MEXICO INDICATE THAT DOLLY LACKS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE CENTER IS REFORMING A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 86.8 WEST OR VERY NEAR CANCUN MEXICO. DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL HEADING WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE CENTER OF DOLLY IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS MORNING AND MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY TO BEGIN AFTER DOLLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM FROM THE CENTER. DOLLY COULD PRODUCE WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA THIS MORNING. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AND IN WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES. REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...21.1 N...86.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 21 01:16:04 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6L6G4w3007055 for ; Mon, 21 Jul 2008 01:16:04 -0500 Message-Id: <200807210616.m6L6G4w3007055@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 01:16:03 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 06:16:04 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 210600 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL...CENTERED ABOUT 30 MILES EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA...AND ON TROPICAL STORM DOLLY...LOCATED NEAR CANCUN MEXICO. A VIGOROUS AND WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN AFRICA A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF DAKAR SENEGAL. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE VERY QUICKLY AFTER IT EMERGES INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON DOLLY ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT34 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON DOLLY ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT24 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4. $$ FORECASTER PASCH WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 21 01:42:42 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6L6ggw3007196 for ; Mon, 21 Jul 2008 01:42:42 -0500 Message-Id: <200807210642.m6L6ggw3007196@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 01:42:41 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 06:42:42 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT33 KNHC 210240 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008 1100 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008 ..CRISTOBAL BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE OUTER BANKS... AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...ALL COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.0 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES... 45 KM...EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK CRISTOBAL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS NEAR 1 INCH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...35.2 N...75.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 21 01:42:42 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6L6ggw3007199 for ; Mon, 21 Jul 2008 01:42:42 -0500 Message-Id: <200807210642.m6L6ggw3007199@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 01:42:42 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 06:42:42 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT34 KNHC 210554 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 200 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008 ..DOLLY MOVING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH MEXICO. THIS TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. SATELLITE IMAGES...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR DATA FROM CANCUN MEXICO INDICATE THAT DOLLY LACKS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE CENTER IS REFORMING A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 86.8 WEST OR VERY NEAR CANCUN MEXICO. DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL HEADING WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE CENTER OF DOLLY IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS MORNING AND MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY TO BEGIN AFTER DOLLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM FROM THE CENTER. DOLLY COULD PRODUCE WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA THIS MORNING. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AND IN WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES. REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...21.1 N...86.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 21 01:42:42 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6L6ggw3007202 for ; Mon, 21 Jul 2008 01:42:42 -0500 Message-Id: <200807210642.m6L6ggw3007202@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 01:42:42 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Forecast/Advisory X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 06:42:42 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT24 KNHC 210251 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DOLLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 0300 UTC MON JUL 21 2008 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 85.8W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 210SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 85.8W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 85.3W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.9N 88.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.3N 90.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 50SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 23.4N 92.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 24.3N 94.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 40SW 75NW. 34 KT...175NE 150SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 25.5N 97.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 40SW 75NW. 34 KT...175NE 150SE 100SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 27.0N 100.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 85.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 21 01:42:42 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6L6ggw3007205 for ; Mon, 21 Jul 2008 01:42:42 -0500 Message-Id: <200807210642.m6L6ggw3007205@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 01:42:42 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 06:42:43 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT43 KNHC 210244 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008 1100 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008 AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE SFMR DATA INDICATED SURFACE WINDS OF 45 KT IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST QUADRANTS. CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTS AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION OVER THIS PARTICULAR AREA. AS A RESULT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED SLIGHTLY. NO CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST...WITH CRISTOBAL HOLDING ON TO THE CURRENT INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS...EVEN WHEN THE CYCLONE COMPLETES AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AROUND THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. THE INITIAL MOTION IS AGAIN SLIGHTLY FASTER...BUT ON A SIMILAR HEADING...045/8. CRISTOBAL SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE FORWARD SPEED IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH...WITH FURTHER ACCELERATION AS IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER WESTERLIES. DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING THAT CRISTOBAL WILL REMAIN A SEPARATE ENTITY A LITTLE BIT LONGER BEFORE BEING ABSORBED BY A BAROCLINIC SYSTEM...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE NEW FORECAST TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0300Z 35.2N 75.0W 45 KT 12HR VT 21/1200Z 36.5N 73.3W 45 KT 24HR VT 22/0000Z 38.9N 70.3W 45 KT 36HR VT 22/1200Z 41.9N 66.3W 45 KT 48HR VT 23/0000Z 44.7N 61.7W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 24/0000Z 46.0N 55.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 25/0000Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 21 01:42:42 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6L6ggw3007210 for ; Mon, 21 Jul 2008 01:42:42 -0500 Message-Id: <200807210642.m6L6ggw3007210@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 01:42:42 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 06:42:43 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT44 KNHC 210251 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 1100 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008 DATA FROM A NOAA P3 AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT DOLLY HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING. INDEED...THE SYSTEM PROBABLY DOESN'T HAVE A CLOSED SURFACE CENTER RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER...DOLLY IS MAINTAINING VIGOROUS CONVECTION AND THE STRONGEST WINDS...AS ESTIMATED BY THE SFMR...HAVE INCREASED TO 45 KT. SINCE DOLLY COULD REGENERATE A CENTER AT ANY TIME...NO GOOD WOULD BE SERVED BY HANGING ON A TECHNICALITY. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 305/12. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...PERHAPS DUE TO THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST OF DOLLY MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD...ENHANCING THE DEEP LAYER EASTERLIES. DOLLY SHOULD CONTINUE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER TEXAS. BY 72 HOURS...THIS RIDGE WEAKENS...AND SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLIGHT NORTHWARD TURN IN THE WESTERN GULF. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS MORE OF A STRAIGHT LINE TRACK BUT IS STILL VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF A VERY TIGHTLY PACKED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW MAY BE KEEPING DOLLY FROM ORGANIZING FOR NOW...BUT THIS SHOULD RAPIDLY BECOME A NON-FACTOR. ONCE THE SYSTEM ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...ALL GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING...WITH A LARGE ANTICYCLONE ALOFT...NO SHEAR...AND WARM GULF WATERS. THE QUANTITATIVE GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDS THE LGEM...SHIPS...AND GFDL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THERE WILL BE SOME DISRUPTION OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE YUCATAN...WHICH COULD BE AVOIDED IF A CENTER REFORMS TO THE NORTH WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION. INTERESTS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DOLLY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0300Z 19.6N 85.8W 45 KT 12HR VT 21/1200Z 20.9N 88.1W 45 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 22/0000Z 22.3N 90.8W 50 KT 36HR VT 22/1200Z 23.4N 92.9W 55 KT 48HR VT 23/0000Z 24.3N 94.5W 65 KT 72HR VT 24/0000Z 25.5N 97.0W 75 KT 96HR VT 25/0000Z 27.0N 100.0W 30 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 21 01:42:43 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6L6ghw3007216 for ; Mon, 21 Jul 2008 01:42:43 -0500 Message-Id: <200807210642.m6L6ghw3007216@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 01:42:43 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 06:42:43 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 210600 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL...CENTERED ABOUT 30 MILES EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA...AND ON TROPICAL STORM DOLLY...LOCATED NEAR CANCUN MEXICO. A VIGOROUS AND WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN AFRICA A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF DAKAR SENEGAL. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE VERY QUICKLY AFTER IT EMERGES INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON DOLLY ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT34 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON DOLLY ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT24 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4. $$ FORECASTER PASCH WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 21 03:23:29 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6L8NTw3007752 for ; Mon, 21 Jul 2008 03:23:29 -0500 Message-Id: <200807210823.m6L8NTw3007752@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 03:23:29 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Hazardous Weather Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 08:23:29 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FLUS42 KTAE 210819 HWOTAE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 419 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161- GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-220830- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON- JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN- CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL- IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE- DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- 419 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008 /319 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2008/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA... SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT... A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TODAY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. IT WILL BE HOT AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 100 DEGREES INLAND AND HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100 AND 104 DEGREES. DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...IT WILL BE HOT ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES TUESDAY AS 2 TO 3 FOOT SWELLS GENERATED BY TROPICAL STORM DOLLY ARRIVE ALONG OUR COASTLINE. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY. SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP. $$ BARRY This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 21 04:00:09 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6L909w3007965 for ; Mon, 21 Jul 2008 04:00:09 -0500 Message-Id: <200807210900.m6L909w3007965@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 04:00:09 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 09:00:09 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT33 KNHC 210852 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008 500 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008 ..CRISTOBAL CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD...AWAY FROM THE OUTER BANKS... AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.9 WEST OR ABOUT 110 MILES...175 KM...NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK CRISTOBAL WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...36.1 N...73.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 21 04:00:09 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6L909w3007968 for ; Mon, 21 Jul 2008 04:00:09 -0500 Message-Id: <200807210900.m6L909w3007968@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 04:00:09 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 09:00:09 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT34 KNHC 210853 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 500 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008 ..DOLLY OVER NORTHERN YUCATAN...ABOUT TO MOVE INTO THE GULF... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH MEXICO. THIS TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING. INTERESTS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DOLLY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.4 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES...240 KM...EAST OF PROGRESO MEXICO. DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WHEN THE CENTER OF THE STORM MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND DOLLY COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM FROM THE CENTER. DOLLY COULD PRODUCE WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA THIS MORNING. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AND IN WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...21.3 N...87.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 21 04:00:09 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6L909w3007971 for ; Mon, 21 Jul 2008 04:00:09 -0500 Message-Id: <200807210900.m6L909w3007971@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 04:00:09 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 09:00:09 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT44 KNHC 210856 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 500 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS FROM CANCUN MEXICO INDICATE THAT THE MID-LEVEL CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REFORMED TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. HOWEVER...SYNOPTIC DATA CAST DOUBT ON THE EXISTENCE OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER. SINCE THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO GENERATE VIGOROUS CONVECTION AND STRONG WINDS...AND IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE SURFACE CENTER WILL SOON REAPPEAR...IT IS PRUDENT TO CONTINUE ISSUING ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS ON DOLLY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 45 KT...IN LINE WITH THE LATEST DVORAK ANALYSES FROM TAFB. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS MOVING INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND SEEMS TO BE INCREASING ITS SEPARATION DISTANCE FROM THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND ALSO DIMINISHING ITS SHEARING INFLUENCE. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS EXPANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF DOLLY AND THIS...COMBINED WITH THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...PRESAGES INTENSIFICATION. THE CURRENT NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ALSO SIMILAR TO THE DYNAMICAL INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS. WITH THE LACK OF A SURFACE CENTER AND THE REFORMATION...INITIAL MOTION IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. MY BEST GUESS...305/13...IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN CALLING FOR A SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED BY 48 HOURS...THEREAFTER...THE KEY PLAYER IN THE STEERING PATTERN FOR DOLLY IS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT STRENGTHS AND CONFIGURATIONS OF THIS RIDGE AROUND 72 HOURS AND DIFFERENT LATITUDES OF LANDFALL ALONG THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST. ALTHOUGH ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT LANDFALL POINT IN 2 TO 3 DAYS TIME...INTERESTS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DOLLY. ANOTHER NOAA P3 AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE STORM LATER THIS MORNING. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0900Z 21.3N 87.4W 45 KT 12HR VT 21/1800Z 22.6N 89.6W 50 KT 24HR VT 22/0600Z 23.6N 92.2W 55 KT 36HR VT 22/1800Z 24.4N 94.2W 65 KT 48HR VT 23/0600Z 25.0N 95.5W 75 KT 72HR VT 24/0600Z 26.0N 98.0W 65 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 25/0600Z 26.5N 100.5W 30 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 21 04:15:29 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6L9FSw3008117 for ; Mon, 21 Jul 2008 04:15:28 -0500 Message-Id: <200807210915.m6L9FSw3008117@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 04:15:28 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 09:15:29 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT43 KNHC 210901 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008 500 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008 THIS EVENING'S RECONNAISSANCE SFMR DATA INDICATED 40 KT IN THE EAST QUADRANT AND 51 KT AT 850 MB. OF 45 KT IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST QUADRANTS. ADDITIONALLY...SFMR RECORDED 59 KT ON AN INBOUND LEG OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CYCLONE. THIS ANOMALOUS WIND APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN DUE TO A LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN ASSOCIATED WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...THAT EARLIER DETACHED FROM THE LARGE ARE OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN SIDE. CONSEQUENTLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KT AS A COMPROMISE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED...WITH THE CYCLONE HOLDING ON TO THE CURRENT INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS...INCLUDING WHEN THE SYSTEM COMPLETES AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AROUND THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 045/11...SLIGHTLY FASTER. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IT'S SPEED OF ADVANCE IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH...WITH FURTHER INCREASE IN SPEED AS IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER WESTERLY FLOW. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS KEEP CRISTOBAL AS A SEPARATE ENTITY DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED BY THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. A FEW OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT A WEAK SURFACE CIRCULATION WILL SURVIVE AND DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH...WHICH COULD HAPPEN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FOLLOWS A BEND OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0900Z 36.1N 73.9W 45 KT 12HR VT 21/1800Z 37.2N 72.1W 45 KT 24HR VT 22/0600Z 39.7N 69.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 22/1800Z 42.5N 65.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 23/0600Z 44.4N 61.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 24/0600Z 45.0N 52.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 25/0600Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 21 05:01:19 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6LA1Jw3008893 for ; Mon, 21 Jul 2008 05:01:19 -0500 Message-Id: <200807211001.m6LA1Jw3008893@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 05:01:19 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 10:01:20 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT43 KNHC 210955 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008 500 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008 ..CORRECTED TEXT... THIS EVENING'S RECONNAISSANCE SFMR DATA INDICATED 40 KT IN THE EAST QUADRANT AND 51 KT AT 850 MB. ADDITIONALLY...THE SFMR RECORDED 59 KT ON AN INBOUND LEG OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CYCLONE. THIS ANOMALOUS WIND APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN DUE TO A LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN ASSOCIATED WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...THAT EARLIER DETACHED FROM THE LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN SIDE. SINCE THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EVENT SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED REPRESENTATIVE OF THE INTENSITY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE'S CIRCULATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED...WITH THE CYCLONE HOLDING ON TO THE CURRENT INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS...INCLUDING WHEN THE SYSTEM COMPLETES AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AROUND THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 045/11...SLIGHTLY FASTER. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ITS SPEED OF ADVANCE IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH...WITH FURTHER INCREASE IN SPEED AS IT MOVES INTO THE HIGHER-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS KEEP CRISTOBAL AS A SEPARATE ENTITY DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED BY THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. A FEW OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT A WEAK SURFACE CIRCULATION WILL SURVIVE AND DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH...WHICH COULD HAPPEN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0900Z 36.1N 73.9W 45 KT 12HR VT 21/1800Z 37.2N 72.1W 45 KT 24HR VT 22/0600Z 39.7N 69.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 22/1800Z 42.5N 65.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 23/0600Z 44.4N 61.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 24/0600Z 45.0N 52.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 25/0600Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 21 06:08:33 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6LB8Xw3009250 for ; Mon, 21 Jul 2008 06:08:33 -0500 Message-Id: <200807211108.m6LB8Xw3009250@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 06:08:33 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Hazardous Weather Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 11:08:33 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FLUS44 KMOB 211106 HWOMOB HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 605 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2008 ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078- 079-221200- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY- COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY- GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- 605 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2008 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND THE GULF COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA. DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS OR SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT. DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES ON TUESDAY AS LONG PERIOD SWELLS GENERATED BY TROPICAL STORM DOLLY APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BEACHES. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS OR SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 21 07:03:29 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6LC3Tw3009629 for ; Mon, 21 Jul 2008 07:03:29 -0500 Message-Id: <200807211203.m6LC3Tw3009629@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 07:03:29 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 12:03:29 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT34 KNHC 211156 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 800 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008 ..DOLLY ABOUT TO EMERGE OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF YUCATAN... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO. AT 8 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE. INTERESTS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DOLLY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.7 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES...105 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF PROGRESO MEXICO. DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TODAY AS THE CENTER OF THE STORM MOVES OUT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND DOLLY COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON PRELIMINARY REPORTS FROM NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AND IN WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES. REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...21.6 N...88.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER KNABB WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 21 07:03:29 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6LC3Tw3009632 for ; Mon, 21 Jul 2008 07:03:29 -0500 Message-Id: <200807211203.m6LC3Tw3009632@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 07:03:29 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 12:03:30 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 211200 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL...CENTERED ABOUT 110 MILES NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA...AND ON TROPICAL STORM DOLLY...LOCATED ABOUT 65 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF PROGRESO MEXICO. A LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED JUST INLAND OVER EXTREME WESTERN AFRICA. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT AFTER IT EMERGES INTO THE TROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER KNABB This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 21 10:06:51 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6LF6pw3010687 for ; Mon, 21 Jul 2008 10:06:51 -0500 Message-Id: <200807211506.m6LF6pw3010687@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 10:06:51 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 15:06:51 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT33 KNHC 211456 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008 1100 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008 ..CRISTOBAL STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST... AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.6 WEST OR ABOUT 190 MILES...305 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 725 MILES...1170 KM...SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND CRISTOBAL SHOULD START TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATE ON TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...36.6 N...72.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 21 10:06:51 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6LF6pw3010692 for ; Mon, 21 Jul 2008 10:06:51 -0500 Message-Id: <200807211506.m6LF6pw3010692@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 10:06:51 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 15:06:51 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT34 KNHC 211454 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 1100 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008 ..DOLLY NOW OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM BROWNSVILLE NORTHWARD TO PORT O'CONNOR. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. AT 1100 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM NORTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. AT 1100 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO MEXICO NORTHWARD TO THE U.S. BORDER...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM LA PESCA MEXICO NORTHWARD TO RIO SAN FERNANDO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.5 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES... 90 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PROGRESO MEXICO. DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE DIRECTION OF MOTION. ON THIS TRACK...DOLLY WILL BE APPROACHING THE COAST OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND DOLLY COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY TOMORROW. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON RECENT AIRCRAFT DATA IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO SIX INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...22.1 N...89.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER KNABB This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 21 10:06:51 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6LF6pw3010695 for ; Mon, 21 Jul 2008 10:06:51 -0500 Message-Id: <200807211506.m6LF6pw3010695@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 10:06:51 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 15:06:51 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT43 KNHC 211457 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008 1100 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT CONVECTION REMAINS QUITE STRONG IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STORM. ON THE LAST PASS THROUGH THE STORM...THE AIR FORCE PLANE FOUND A FALLING PRESSURE AND SOME EVIDENCE OF A CENTER REFORMATION TO THE SOUTH. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING SUGGESTS THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE 50-55 KT...WHICH ISN'T TOO FAR FROM THE SFMR DATA COLLECTED BY THE PLANE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. SOME INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE WHILE THE CENTER MOVES ACROSS THE GULF STREAM AND THE SHEAR REMAINS LOW DURING THE NEXT 24 HR OR SO. THEREAFTER...CRISTOBAL IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM AND INTO A STRONGER SHEARING ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SHOULD BEGIN THE WEAKENING PROCESS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS WHICH SHOW THIS SYSTEM STAYING JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN DUE TO TO CENTER REFORMATION BUT IS ESTIMATED AT 055/11. A TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED IS LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE EAST WITH TIME AS IT MOVES INTO MORE WESTERLY FLOW. THE BIGGEST CHANGE FROM THE LAST ADVISORY IS THAT MORE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE STORM WON'T BE FULLY ABSORBED BY A TROUGH OVER NORTH AMERICA AND INSTEAD ROTATE AROUND THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AND IS EXTENDED TO 96 HR IN LINE WITH THE GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/1500Z 36.6N 72.6W 55 KT 12HR VT 22/0000Z 37.9N 70.6W 60 KT 24HR VT 22/1200Z 40.5N 67.5W 60 KT 36HR VT 23/0000Z 43.3N 63.5W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 23/1200Z 45.0N 59.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 24/1200Z 45.0N 47.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 25/1200Z 41.0N 40.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 21 10:06:51 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6LF6pw3010698 for ; Mon, 21 Jul 2008 10:06:51 -0500 Message-Id: <200807211506.m6LF6pw3010698@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 10:06:51 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 15:06:52 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT44 KNHC 211500 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 1100 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008 THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT NOW THAT DOLLY HAS A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION...WHICH HAS BECOME EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO JUST OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY CONFIRMED THE EXISTENCE OF THE CLOSED CIRCULATION IN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD...AND FOUND THAT MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN ABOUT 45 KT. THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW STARTING TO WRAP AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION...AND OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO EXPAND IN ALL QUADRANTS. A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE COVERS MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...SO THE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT APPEARS QUITE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...AND THE SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ENTIRE OVER-WATER FORECAST TRACK ARE QUITE WARM. IN ABOUT 18-24 HOURS...DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER SSTS GREATER THAN 29 CELSIUS...AND A RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN OCEAN HEAT CONTENT...AN AREA WITH A SOMEWHAT DEEPER RESERVOIR OF WARM WATER BENEATH THE SURFACE. AS A RESULT OF THESE CONDITIONS...STRENGTHENING APPEARS LIKELY...BUT GIVEN THE CURRENT SPRAWLING NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION...THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION IS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...SINCE IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE FOR A TRUE INNER CORE TO DEVELOP. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE HIGHER END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...CLOSE TO THE GFDL SOLUTION...IN CALLING FOR A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. SINCE THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF LANDFALL ARE UNCERTAIN...THE FORECAST WEAKENING BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS ONLY RESULTS FROM THE 72-HOUR POINT BEING INLAND...AND A STRENGTHENING TREND IS FORECAST UP TO THE TIME OF FINAL LANDFALL. DOLLY IS STILL MOVING RATHER QUICKLY...300/16...TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...RESULTING IN TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT SLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION AS THE CYCLONE PROCEEDS INTO THE WESTERN GULF. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN GULF...AND SO HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH REMAINS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THERE ARE VERY RELIABLE MODELS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK...SO IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF LANDFALL IMPLIED BY THE OFFICIAL TRACK. THE NEW FORECAST REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES FOR THE COAST OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/1500Z 22.1N 89.5W 45 KT 12HR VT 22/0000Z 23.0N 91.6W 55 KT 24HR VT 22/1200Z 24.2N 93.8W 60 KT 36HR VT 23/0000Z 25.1N 95.2W 70 KT 48HR VT 23/1200Z 25.9N 96.4W 80 KT 72HR VT 24/1200Z 26.5N 98.5W 50 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 25/1200Z 27.0N 100.5W 30 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KNABB WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 21 11:10:05 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6LGA5w3011070 for ; Mon, 21 Jul 2008 11:10:05 -0500 Message-Id: <200807211610.m6LGA5w3011070@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 11:10:05 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 16:10:06 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 211609 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1209 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008 FLZ008-012-014-015-018-026>029-034-211800- COASTAL WALTON-BAY-GULF-FRANKLIN-JEFFERSON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR- LAFAYETTE-DIXIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...INWOOD...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...WHITE CITY...PORT ST. JOE... WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...MONTICELLO... SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS...PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO... CROSS CITY 1209 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008 /1109 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 200 PM EDT (100 PM CDT)...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE FRONT AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES INLAND. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME WILL BE OVER GULF...FRANKLIN...TAYLOR AND DIXIE COUNTIES. $$ JAMSKI This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 21 12:15:28 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6LHFRw3011435 for ; Mon, 21 Jul 2008 12:15:28 -0500 Message-Id: <200807211715.m6LHFRw3011435@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 12:15:28 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 17:15:28 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 211714 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 114 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008 FLZ008-012-014-015-018-026>029-034-211900- COASTAL WALTON-BAY-GULF-FRANKLIN-JEFFERSON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR- LAFAYETTE-DIXIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...INWOOD...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...WHITE CITY...PORT ST. JOE... WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...MONTICELLO... SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS...PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO... CROSS CITY 114 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008 /1214 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 300 PM EDT (200 PM CDT)...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE FRONT AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES INLAND. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME WILL BE OVER GULF...FRANKLIN AND DIXIE COUNTIES. $$ JAMSKI This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 21 12:19:35 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6LHJZw3011463 for ; Mon, 21 Jul 2008 12:19:35 -0500 Message-Id: <200807211719.m6LHJZw3011463@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 12:19:35 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 17:19:35 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 211717 CCA NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 114 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008 FLZ008-012-014-015-018-026>029-034-211900- COASTAL WALTON-BAY-GULF-FRANKLIN-JEFFERSON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR- LAFAYETTE-DIXIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...INWOOD...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...WHITE CITY...PORT ST. JOE... WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...MONTICELLO... SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS...PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO... CROSS CITY 114 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008 /1214 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 300 PM EDT (200 PM CDT)...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE FRONT AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES INLAND. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME WILL BE OVER GULF...FRANKLIN AND DIXIE COUNTIES. $$ JAMSKI This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 21 13:03:46 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6LI3kw3011698 for ; Mon, 21 Jul 2008 13:03:46 -0500 Message-Id: <200807211803.m6LI3kw3011698@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 13:03:46 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 18:03:46 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 211802 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 202 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008 FLZ007>019-026>029-034-212000- INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY- CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY- WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY 202 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008 /102 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 400 PM EDT (300 PM CDT)...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE FRONT AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES INLAND. $$ JAMSKI This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 21 13:03:46 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6LI3kw3011701 for ; Mon, 21 Jul 2008 13:03:46 -0500 Message-Id: <200807211803.m6LI3kw3011701@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 13:03:46 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 18:03:46 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 211802 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 202 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008 ALZ065>069-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-212000- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-QUITMAN-CLAY-RANDOLPH-CALHOUN- TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-EARLY- MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-DECATUR- GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES...CUTHBERT... SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY...DAWSON... ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTER...ASHBURN...TIFTON... FITZGERALD...OCILLA...DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY...COLQUITT... NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM...MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS... NASHVILLE...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO...THOMASVILLE... QUITMAN...VALDOSTA...LAKELAND 202 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008 /102 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 400 PM EDT (300 PM CDT)...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN. $$ JAMSKI This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 21 13:10:39 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6LIAdw3011751 for ; Mon, 21 Jul 2008 13:10:39 -0500 Message-Id: <200807211810.m6LIAdw3011751@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 13:10:39 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 18:10:39 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT34 KNHC 211800 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 100 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2008 ..DOLLY MOVING QUICKLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO MEXICO NORTHWARD...ACROSS THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES...AND ALONG THE TEXAS COAST TO PORT O'CONNOR. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA PESCA NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO...AND FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM NORTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 100 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.4 WEST OR ABOUT 475 MILES...765 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE COAST OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE DIRECTION OF MOTION. ON THIS TRACK...DOLLY WILL BE APPROACHING THE COAST OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND DOLLY COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY TOMORROW. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO SIX INCHES. REPEATING THE 100 PM CDT POSITION...22.8 N...90.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER KNABB This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 21 14:05:48 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6LJ5mw3012059 for ; Mon, 21 Jul 2008 14:05:48 -0500 Message-Id: <200807211905.m6LJ5mw3012059@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 14:05:48 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 19:05:49 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 211903 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 203 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2008 ALZ051>060-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-212100- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM... MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN... PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE... LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON... ANDALUSIA...OPP...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT...NEW AUGUSTA... LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE 203 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2008 NOW... THROUGH 4 PM...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME STRONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING...BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH...AND BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 21 14:05:48 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6LJ5mw3012062 for ; Mon, 21 Jul 2008 14:05:48 -0500 Message-Id: <200807211905.m6LJ5mw3012062@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 14:05:48 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 19:05:49 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 211903 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 203 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2008 ALZ061>064-FLZ001>006-212100- UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN- INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE... TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY... SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA... FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY... MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW... WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE... EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO 203 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2008 NOW... THROUGH 4 PM...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME STRONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING...BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH...AND BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 21 14:14:47 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6LJElw3012232 for ; Mon, 21 Jul 2008 14:14:47 -0500 Message-Id: <200807211914.m6LJElw3012232@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 14:14:47 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 19:14:47 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 211913 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 313 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008 FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GMZ730-750-755-765-212200- INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY- CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY- WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY 313 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008 /213 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 600 PM EDT (500 PM CDT)...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS THEY MOVE NORTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BIG BEND DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE CHANCE FOR STRONGER STORMS WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS THE SEA BREEZE FRONT MOVES FURTHER INLAND AND MERGES WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM SOUTHWARD MOVING STORMS ACROSS ALABAMA AND GEORGIA. $$ GOULD This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 21 14:14:47 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6LJElw3012235 for ; Mon, 21 Jul 2008 14:14:47 -0500 Message-Id: <200807211914.m6LJElw3012235@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 14:14:47 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 19:14:48 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 211913 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 313 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008 ALZ065>069-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-212200- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-QUITMAN-CLAY-RANDOLPH-CALHOUN- TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-EARLY- MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-DECATUR- GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES...CUTHBERT... SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY...DAWSON... ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTER...ASHBURN...TIFTON... FITZGERALD...OCILLA...DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY...COLQUITT... NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM...MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS... NASHVILLE...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO...THOMASVILLE... QUITMAN...VALDOSTA...LAKELAND 313 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008 /213 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 600 PM EDT (500 PM CDT)...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS...ESPECIALLY WITHIN A 100 MILE RADIUS OF ALBANY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE CHANCE FOR EVEN STRONGER STORMS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE FLORIDA BORDER...AS THE SEA BREEZE FRONT ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA PUSHES FURTHER INLAND AND MERGES WITH SOME OF THESE SOUTHWARD MOVING STORMS. $$ GOULD This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 21 15:58:49 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6LKwnw3013069 for ; Mon, 21 Jul 2008 15:58:49 -0500 Message-Id: <200807212058.m6LKwnw3013069@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 15:58:49 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 20:58:49 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT33 KNHC 212046 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008 500 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008 ..CRISTOBAL CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD... AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.4 WEST OR ABOUT 265 MILES...425 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 660 MILES...1060 KM...SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TOMORROW WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST IS FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND CRISTOBAL SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATE TOMORROW. THE STORM SHOULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS ON WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...37.1 N...71.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 21 15:58:49 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6LKwnw3013072 for ; Mon, 21 Jul 2008 15:58:49 -0500 Message-Id: <200807212058.m6LKwnw3013072@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 15:58:49 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 20:58:49 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT34 KNHC 212052 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 400 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2008 ..DOLLY EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN GULF... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO MEXICO NORTHWARD...ACROSS THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES...AND ALONG THE TEXAS COAST TO PORT O'CONNOR. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA PESCA NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO...AND FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM NORTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREAS LATER TONIGHT. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.2 WEST OR ABOUT 420 MILES...680 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE COAST OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL BE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND WILL BE NEAR THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST BY WEDNESDAY. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND DOLLY IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE REACHING THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO SIX INCHES. REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...23.1 N...91.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER KNABB WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 21 15:58:49 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6LKwnw3013075 for ; Mon, 21 Jul 2008 15:58:49 -0500 Message-Id: <200807212058.m6LKwnw3013075@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 15:58:49 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 20:58:49 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT43 KNHC 212046 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008 500 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008 A LARGE BALL OF CONVECTION REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE CENTER IS IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO INTENSITY ESTIMATES...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 55 KT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CRISTOBAL COULD BE CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE MOVING OVER THE COOLER WATERS NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM TOMORROW. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS AND IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE STATISTICAL MODELS. PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS FROM FLORIDA STATE SUGGEST THAT A RAPID EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD START TOMORROW AND BE COMPLETED BY WEDNESDAY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 055/12...A LITTLE FASTER THAN EARLIER. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON AN ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...THE STORM IS NOW FORECAST TO AVOID ANY TROUGHING OVER NORTH AMERICA AND INSTEAD RIDE ALONG THE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. IN A COUPLE DAYS...A NEW TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY TO THE EAST OF THE STORM...WHICH SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH AND IS NOT TOO FAR FROM THE GFS BY 96 HOURS. MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST NO BAROCLINIC REINTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR AND INSTEAD CRISTOBAL MAY DISSIPATE OVER THE COLD NORTH ATLANTIC WATERS IN ABOUT 120 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/2100Z 37.1N 71.4W 55 KT 12HR VT 22/0600Z 38.9N 68.7W 60 KT 24HR VT 22/1800Z 41.7N 64.7W 60 KT 36HR VT 23/0600Z 44.0N 60.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 23/1800Z 45.0N 55.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 24/1800Z 42.5N 45.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 25/1800Z 38.5N 40.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 21 16:02:58 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6LL2ww3013197 for ; Mon, 21 Jul 2008 16:02:58 -0500 Message-Id: <200807212102.m6LL2ww3013197@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 16:02:57 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 21:02:58 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 212100 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 400 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2008 ALZ051>060-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-212300- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM... MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN... PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE... LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON... ANDALUSIA...OPP...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT...NEW AUGUSTA... LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE 400 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2008 NOW... THROUGH 6 PM...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME STRONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING...BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH...AND BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 21 16:02:58 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6LL2ww3013200 for ; Mon, 21 Jul 2008 16:02:58 -0500 Message-Id: <200807212102.m6LL2ww3013200@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 16:02:58 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 21:02:58 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 212100 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 400 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2008 ALZ061>064-FLZ001>006-212300- UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN- INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE... TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY... SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA... FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY... MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW... WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE... EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO 400 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2008 NOW... THROUGH 6 PM...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG THE COASTAL SEABREEZE WILL TRACK WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME STRONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING...BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH...AND BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 21 16:14:09 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6LLE9w3013508 for ; Mon, 21 Jul 2008 16:14:09 -0500 Message-Id: <200807212114.m6LLE9w3013508@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 16:14:09 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 21:14:09 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT44 KNHC 212100 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 500 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008 THE STRUCTURE OF DOLLY APPEARS TO BE UNDERGOING VERY GRADUAL CHANGES. THE OUTERMOST CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE BEEN WEAKENING TODAY...WHILE CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOWLY ON THE INCREASE NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS IS NOW MUCH SMALLER...AS DETERMINED FROM STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER DATA THAT RECENTLY INDICATED A MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND OF 45 KT ABOUT 45 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. DOLLY IS HEADED TOWARD A RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN OCEAN HEAT CONTENT...AND IT IS BENEATH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE THAT COVERS NEARLY THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. IT SEEMS TO BE TAKING A WHILE...HOWEVER...FOR AN INNER CORE TO BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE...SO IT IS RATHER UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH DOLLY WILL TAKE ADVANTAGE OF ITS ENVIRONMENT. ALL OF THE INTENSITY MODELS FORECAST AN UPWARD INTENSITY TREND UNTIL FINAL LANDFALL...BUT THEY DO NOT AGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF STRENGTHENING. THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS FORECAST ABOUT 65 KT IN 48 HOURS...WHILE THE GFDL IS A LITTLE HIGHER AT 75-80 KT. SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS SO CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AGAIN LEANS TOWARD THE HIGHER GFDL SOLUTION. ANOTHER COMPLICATION IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS NOT KNOWING EXACTLY HOW FAST DOLLY WILL REACH THE COAST. IF IT MAKES LANDFALL SOONER THAN THE OFFICIAL TRACK INDICATES...IT MIGHT RUN OUT OF TIME TO REACH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PEAK INTENSITY. BUT IF THE OPPOSITE OCCURS...DOLLY WOULD HAVE A LITTLE MORE TIME OVER THE WARM WATERS. DOLLY CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 300/16. WHILE IT IS A LITTLE UNNERVING TO OBSERVE THIS FAST MOTION AND FORECAST THE CENTER OF DOLLY TO TAKE A COUPLE OF DAYS TO REACH THE COAST...ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INSIST THAT THE FORWARD SPEED WILL BE ABOUT HALF ITS CURRENT VALUE BY TOMORROW NIGHT. THE MODELS AGREE SURPRISINGLY WELL ON THE SLOW-DOWN...SO THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...IN TERMS OF FORWARD SPEED...IS RIGHT IN LINE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE MODELS DO NOT GO INLAND IN EXACTLY THE SAME LOCATIONS...HOWEVER. THE GFS AND UKMET FORECAST DOLLY TO CROSS THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...WHILE THE GFDL AND HWRF TRACKS GO INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS...GIVING RESPECT TO THE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NWS HURRICANE MODELS...THE GFDL AND HWRF. THIS NEW TRACK IS NOT MEANINGFULLY DIFFERENT THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...EXCEPT TO BE A LITTLE FASTER. IT IS AGAIN IMPORTANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT...WITH RELIABLE MODELS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK...ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT LANDFALL LOCATION IMPLIED BY THE OFFICIAL TRACK. WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREAS LATER TONIGHT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/2100Z 23.1N 91.2W 45 KT 12HR VT 22/0600Z 24.0N 93.0W 55 KT 24HR VT 22/1800Z 24.9N 94.9W 60 KT 36HR VT 23/0600Z 25.8N 96.1W 70 KT 48HR VT 23/1800Z 26.4N 97.3W 75 KT 72HR VT 24/1800Z 27.0N 99.5W 40 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KNABB This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 21 16:15:11 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6LLFBw3013541 for ; Mon, 21 Jul 2008 16:15:11 -0500 Message-Id: <200807212115.m6LLFBw3013541@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 16:15:11 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Special Weather Statement X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 21:15:11 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WWUS84 KMOB 212113 SPSMOB SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 413 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2008 FLZ003-004-212200- INLAND SANTA ROSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA- 413 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2008 ..A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS BEING DETECTED OVER SANTA ROSA COUNTY... AT 412 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES EAST OF CHUMUCKLA...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH. THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND... CHUMUCKLA THROUGH 500 PM CDT. THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG COULD DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 21 17:10:20 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6LMAKw3014880 for ; Mon, 21 Jul 2008 17:10:20 -0500 Message-Id: <200807212210.m6LMAKw3014880@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 17:10:20 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Special Weather Statement X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 22:10:21 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WWUS84 KMOB 212208 SPSMOB SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 508 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2008 ALZ056-212245- CONECUH- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EVERGREEN... 508 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2008 ..A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS BEING DETECTED OVER CONECUH COUNTY... AT 506 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WILCOX...MOVING WEST AT 7 MPH. THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND... WILCOX...BROWNVILLE AND EVERGREEN THROUGH 545 PM CDT. THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG COULD BRING DOWN DEAD OR DISEASED TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. LOCAL LOSS OF ELECTRICAL POWER MAY RESULT FROM DOWNED POWER LINES. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...OR SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 21 17:56:05 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6LMu5w3015497 for ; Mon, 21 Jul 2008 17:56:05 -0500 Message-Id: <200807212256.m6LMu5w3015497@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 17:56:05 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Local Storm Report X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 22:56:06 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) NWUS52 KTAE 212249 LSRTAE PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 649 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0532 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 SSW HOPEFUL 31.13N 84.41W 07/21/2008 MITCHELL GA LAW ENFORCEMENT SEVERAL TREES KNOCKED DOWN BY DOWNBURST COUNTYWIDE. && $$ GOULD This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 21 18:30:40 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6LNUew3015764 for ; Mon, 21 Jul 2008 18:30:40 -0500 Message-Id: <200807212330.m6LNUew3015764@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 18:30:40 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Local Storm Report X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 23:30:40 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) NWUS52 KTAE 212311 LSRTAE PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 711 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0632 PM TSTM WND DMG RENO 30.77N 84.29W 07/21/2008 GRADY GA LAW ENFORCEMENT MANY TREES AND POWER LINES KNOCKED DOWN COUNTYWIDE BY DOWNBURST. && $$ GOULD This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 21 18:30:40 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6LNUew3015767 for ; Mon, 21 Jul 2008 18:30:40 -0500 Message-Id: <200807212330.m6LNUew3015767@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 18:30:40 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 23:30:41 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 212321 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 621 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2008 ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-220130- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY- WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM... MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN... PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE... LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON... ANDALUSIA...OPP...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE... TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY... SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA... FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY... MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW... WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE... EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT... NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE 621 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2008 NOW... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INLAND AREAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH 9 PM. A FEW STRONGER STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AROUND 40 MPH AND SOME SMALL HAIL. THE STORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 21 18:31:36 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6LNVaw3015780 for ; Mon, 21 Jul 2008 18:31:36 -0500 Message-Id: <200807212331.m6LNVaw3015780@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 18:31:36 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 23:31:36 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 212313 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL...CENTERED ABOUT 660 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA...AND ON TROPICAL STORM DOLLY...LOCATED ABOUT 430 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. A LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS EMERGING FROM WESTERN AFRICA INTO THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED EARLIER...WHERE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL RATHER COOL. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 21 18:37:43 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6LNbhw3015818 for ; Mon, 21 Jul 2008 18:37:43 -0500 Message-Id: <200807212337.m6LNbhw3015818@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 18:37:42 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Local Storm Report X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 23:37:43 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) NWUS52 KTAE 212335 LSRTAE PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 735 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0651 PM TSTM WND DMG CLYATTVILLE 30.69N 83.32W 07/21/2008 LOWNDES GA LAW ENFORCEMENT SEVERAL TREES AND A POWERLINE WERE FELLED BY A DOWNBURST. && $$ GOULD This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 21 18:49:59 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6LNnxw3015912 for ; Mon, 21 Jul 2008 18:49:59 -0500 Message-Id: <200807212349.m6LNnxw3015912@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 18:49:58 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Local Storm Report X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 23:49:59 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) NWUS52 KTAE 212348 LSRTAE PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 748 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0552 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 S VADA 31.03N 84.41W 07/21/2008 DECATUR GA LAW ENFORCEMENT SEVERAL TREES KNOCKED DOWN BY A DOWNBURST NEAR THE DECATUR/MITCHELL COUNTY LINE. && $$ GOULD This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 21 18:57:11 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6LNvBw3015964 for ; Mon, 21 Jul 2008 18:57:11 -0500 Message-Id: <200807212357.m6LNvBw3015964@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 18:57:11 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Local Storm Report X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 23:57:11 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) NWUS52 KTAE 212356 LSRTAE PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 756 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0630 PM TSTM WND DMG IAMONIA 30.67N 84.16W 07/21/2008 LEON FL LAW ENFORCEMENT SEVERAL TREES KNOCKED DOWN NEAR THE STATE LINE BY A DOWNBURST. MORE DAMAGE REPORTS FROM LEON COUNTY STILL COMING IN. && $$ GOULD This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 21 19:02:08 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6M028w3016000 for ; Mon, 21 Jul 2008 19:02:08 -0500 Message-Id: <200807220002.m6M028w3016000@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 19:02:08 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 00:02:09 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT34 KNHC 212349 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 700 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2008 ..DOLLY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT JOGS WESTWARD... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO MEXICO NORTHWARD...ACROSS THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES...AND ALONG THE TEXAS COAST TO PORT O'CONNOR. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA PESCA NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO...AND FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM NORTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREAS LATER TONIGHT. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 700 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.8 WEST OR ABOUT 380 MILES...610 KM...EAST OF LA CRUZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 405 MILES...650 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS DOLLY HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...25 KM/HR. HOWEVER...A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL BE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND WILL BE NEAR THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST BY WEDNESDAY. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT DOLLY IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... ALTHOUGH THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN NEAR NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO SIX INCHES. REPEATING THE 700 PM CDT POSITION...23.1 N...91.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 21 19:18:29 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6M0ITw3016093 for ; Mon, 21 Jul 2008 19:18:29 -0500 Message-Id: <200807220018.m6M0ITw3016093@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 19:18:29 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Local Storm Report X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 00:18:29 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) NWUS52 KTAE 220006 LSRTAE PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 806 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0430 PM TSTM WND DMG 10 NNE CAMILLA 31.36N 84.15W 07/21/2008 MITCHELL GA LAW ENFORCEMENT SEVERAL TREES KNOCKED DOWN BY DOWNBURST COUNTYWIDE. 0532 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 SSW HOPEFUL 31.13N 84.41W 07/21/2008 MITCHELL GA LAW ENFORCEMENT SEVERAL TREES KNOCKED DOWN BY DOWNBURST COUNTYWIDE. 0542 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 SE HOGGARD MILL 31.18N 84.44W 07/21/2008 BAKER GA COUNTY OFFICIAL SEVERAL TREES KNOCKED DOWN BY DOWNBURST ALONG HWY 253 SOUTH. 0552 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 S VADA 31.03N 84.41W 07/21/2008 DECATUR GA LAW ENFORCEMENT SEVERAL TREES KNOCKED DOWN BY A DOWNBURST NEAR THE DECATUR/MITCHELL COUNTY LINE. 0625 PM TSTM WND DMG ROCKY HILL 30.70N 84.21W 07/21/2008 GRADY GA LAW ENFORCEMENT MANY TREES AND POWER LINES KNOCKED DOWN COUNTYWIDE BY DOWNBURST. 0630 PM TSTM WND DMG IAMONIA 30.67N 84.16W 07/21/2008 LEON FL LAW ENFORCEMENT SEVERAL TREES KNOCKED DOWN NEAR THE STATE LINE BY A DOWNBURST. MORE DAMAGE REPORTS FROM LEON COUNTY STILL COMING IN. 0632 PM TSTM WND DMG RENO 30.77N 84.29W 07/21/2008 GRADY GA LAW ENFORCEMENT MANY TREES AND POWER LINES KNOCKED DOWN COUNTYWIDE BY DOWNBURST. 0651 PM TSTM WND DMG CLYATTVILLE 30.69N 83.32W 07/21/2008 LOWNDES GA LAW ENFORCEMENT SEVERAL TREES AND A POWERLINE WERE FELLED BY A DOWNBURST. && $$ GOULD This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 21 20:30:49 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6M1Unw3016644 for ; Mon, 21 Jul 2008 20:30:49 -0500 Message-Id: <200807220130.m6M1Unw3016644@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 20:30:49 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Local Storm Report X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 01:30:50 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) NWUS52 KTAE 220108 LSRTAE PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 908 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0430 PM TSTM WND DMG 10 NNE CAMILLA 31.36N 84.15W 07/21/2008 MITCHELL GA LAW ENFORCEMENT SEVERAL TREES KNOCKED DOWN BY DOWNBURST COUNTYWIDE. 0532 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 SSW HOPEFUL 31.13N 84.41W 07/21/2008 MITCHELL GA LAW ENFORCEMENT SEVERAL TREES KNOCKED DOWN BY DOWNBURST COUNTYWIDE. 0542 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 SE HOGGARD MILL 31.18N 84.44W 07/21/2008 BAKER GA COUNTY OFFICIAL SEVERAL TREES KNOCKED DOWN BY DOWNBURST ALONG HWY 253 SOUTH. 0552 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 S VADA 31.03N 84.41W 07/21/2008 DECATUR GA LAW ENFORCEMENT SEVERAL TREES KNOCKED DOWN BY A DOWNBURST NEAR THE DECATUR/MITCHELL COUNTY LINE. 0625 PM TSTM WND DMG ROCKY HILL 30.70N 84.21W 07/21/2008 GRADY GA LAW ENFORCEMENT MANY TREES AND POWER LINES KNOCKED DOWN COUNTYWIDE BY DOWNBURST. 0630 PM TSTM WND DMG IAMONIA 30.67N 84.16W 07/21/2008 LEON FL LAW ENFORCEMENT SEVERAL TREES KNOCKED DOWN NEAR THE STATE LINE BY A DOWNBURST. MORE DAMAGE REPORTS FROM LEON COUNTY STILL COMING IN. 0632 PM TSTM WND DMG RENO 30.77N 84.29W 07/21/2008 GRADY GA LAW ENFORCEMENT MANY TREES AND POWER LINES KNOCKED DOWN COUNTYWIDE BY DOWNBURST. 0651 PM TSTM WND DMG CLYATTVILLE 30.69N 83.32W 07/21/2008 LOWNDES GA LAW ENFORCEMENT SEVERAL TREES AND A POWERLINE WERE FELLED BY A DOWNBURST. 0717 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 N KILLEARN ESTATES 30.57N 84.24W 07/21/2008 LEON FL LAW ENFORCEMENT SEVERAL TREES KNOCKED DOWN IN KILLEARN AREA BY A DOWNBURST. && $$ GOULD This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 21 21:50:09 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6M2o9w3017068 for ; Mon, 21 Jul 2008 21:50:09 -0500 Message-Id: <200807220250.m6M2o9w3017068@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 21:50:09 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 02:50:09 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT43 KNHC 220248 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008 1100 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008 CRISTOBAL APPEARS TO BE SUCCUMBING TO THE COOLER SSTS AS DEEP CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 50 KT BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS. GIVEN THE EXTREMELY COLD SSTS THAT CRISTOBAL WILL ENCOUNTER ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...FURTHER WEAKENING APPEARS LIKELY. THE FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM INDICATES THE SYSTEM WILL BE EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. HOWEVER...IF THE PRESENT TREND IN CONVECTION CONTINUES...CRISTOBAL COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW PRIOR TO ITS TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. REGARDLESS...SIGNIFICANT RESTRENGTHENING DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME DUE TO LACK OF BAROCLINIC FORCING. CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 060/14. TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GRADUAL TURN EASTWARD AT DAY TWO AS CRISTOBAL MOVES AROUND THE NORTH SIDE A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THEREAFTER...GUIDANCE DIVERGES DUE TO DIFFERING FORECASTS OF A TROUGH...AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT...WHICH AMPLIFIES SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC. CONSIDERING THE UNCERTAINTY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AT DAYS 3 AND 4. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0300Z 37.7N 69.8W 50 KT 12HR VT 22/1200Z 39.8N 67.1W 45 KT 24HR VT 23/0000Z 42.5N 62.7W 40 KT 36HR VT 23/1200Z 44.0N 57.9W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 24/0000Z 44.0N 52.8W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 25/0000Z 41.0N 44.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 26/0000Z 37.5N 41.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER RHOME This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 21 22:05:28 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6M35Sw3017150 for ; Mon, 21 Jul 2008 22:05:28 -0500 Message-Id: <200807220305.m6M35Sw3017150@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 22:05:28 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 03:05:28 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT33 KNHC 220251 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008 1100 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008 ..CRISTOBAL ACCELERATING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD... AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.8 WEST OR ABOUT 360 MILES...580 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 575 MILES...925 KM...SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR ..AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...37.7 N...69.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER RHOME WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 21 22:05:28 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6M35Sw3017153 for ; Mon, 21 Jul 2008 22:05:28 -0500 Message-Id: <200807220305.m6M35Sw3017153@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 22:05:28 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 03:05:28 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT34 KNHC 220302 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 1000 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2008 ..HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED... AT 10 PM CDT...0300 UTC...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM BROWNSVILLE TO PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. AT 10 PM CDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 10 PM CDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES. AT 10 PM CDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FROM LA PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.8 WEST OR ABOUT 320 MILES...515 KM...EAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO AND ABOUT 435 MILES...695 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE WESTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4-6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...23.1 N...92.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 100 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 21 22:05:28 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6M35Sw3017156 for ; Mon, 21 Jul 2008 22:05:28 -0500 Message-Id: <200807220305.m6M35Sw3017156@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 22:05:28 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 03:05:29 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT44 KNHC 220254 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 1100 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008 DOLLY HAS CONTINUED TO GENERATE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CORE THIS EVENING...AND NOW SHOWS EVIDENCE OF WRAPPING A BAND IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AGAINST THE EASTERLY SHEAR...WHICH HAS BEEN DECREASING. DATA FROM THE NOAA AIRCRAFT...HOWEVER...INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE CENTER IS SOUTH OF THE APPARENT INFRARED CENTER. DOLLY IS ALSO MOVING OVER A WARM GULF EDDY. GIVEN THESE CHANGES...STRENGTHENING SHOULD BEGIN VERY SOON. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS NOT YET IDEAL FOR DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE ANTICYCLONE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF DOLLY...BUT THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THESE FEATURES TO BECOME BETTER CONNECTED JUST BEFORE LANDFALL. ON THE OTHER HAND...DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER A COLD EDDY IN ABOUT 18-24 HOURS...WHEN THE FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE A BIT SLOWER THAN IT IS NOW...AND THIS ENCOUNTER COULD PROVIDE A DAMPER ON THE INTENSIFICATION RATE IN THE LAST HOURS PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE BOTTOM LINE OF ALL THIS IS THAT DOLLY VERY LIKELY WILL BECOME A HURRICANE...BUT THE ODDS ARE AGAINST IT BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/15. THE GUIDANCE MODELS FROM YESTERDAY DID A NICE JOB IN FORECASTING THE INCREASE IN SPEED TODAY...AND ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THE FORWARD MOTION WILL SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH OF DOLLY WEAKENS ALONG WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER EAST TEXAS IS FORECAST TO ERODE SLIGHTLY AS A PAIR OF MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE A BEND OF THE TRACK TO THE RIGHT OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WITH THE GFS TO THE SOUTH AND THE GFDL TO THE NORTH. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0300Z 23.1N 92.8W 45 KT 12HR VT 22/1200Z 23.9N 94.4W 55 KT 24HR VT 23/0000Z 24.8N 95.8W 65 KT 36HR VT 23/1200Z 25.6N 96.9W 75 KT 48HR VT 24/0000Z 26.2N 98.0W 50 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 25/0000Z 26.5N 101.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 21 22:38:09 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6M3c9w3017353 for ; Mon, 21 Jul 2008 22:38:09 -0500 Message-Id: <200807220338.m6M3c9w3017353@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 22:38:09 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Hazardous Weather Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 03:38:09 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FLUS44 KMOB 220326 HWOMOB HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 1020 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2008 ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078- 079-221200- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY- COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY- GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- 1020 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2008 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND THE GULF COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA. DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS IN THE SURF ZONE AT THE GULF BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL POSE A LIFE THREATENING HAZARD TO THOSE ENTERING THE SURF ZONE. THOSE PLANNING A TRIP TO AREA BEACHES SHOULD HEED THE ADVICE OF THE LOCAL BEACH PATROL AND LOCAL FLAG WARNING SYSTEMS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AROUND 45 MPH...IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED THREAT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA GULF BEACHES AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Mon Jul 21 22:50:29 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6M3oTw3017422 for ; Mon, 21 Jul 2008 22:50:29 -0500 Message-Id: <200807220350.m6M3oTw3017422@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2008 22:50:29 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 03:50:30 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 220347 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1147 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008 ALZ065>069-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-220600- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-QUITMAN-CLAY-RANDOLPH-CALHOUN- TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-EARLY- MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-DECATUR- GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES...CUTHBERT... SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY...DAWSON... ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTER...ASHBURN...TIFTON... FITZGERALD...OCILLA...DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY...COLQUITT... NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM...MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS... NASHVILLE...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO...THOMASVILLE... QUITMAN...VALDOSTA...LAKELAND 1147 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008 /1047 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 2 AM EDT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM BLAKELY TO TIFTON. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. $$ FOURNIER This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 22 00:45:22 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6M5jMw3018021 for ; Tue, 22 Jul 2008 00:45:22 -0500 Message-Id: <200807220545.m6M5jMw3018021@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 00:45:22 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 05:45:22 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 220543 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 143 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008 ALZ065>069-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-220800- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-QUITMAN-CLAY-RANDOLPH-CALHOUN- TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-EARLY- MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-DECATUR- GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES...CUTHBERT... SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY...DAWSON... ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTER...ASHBURN...TIFTON... FITZGERALD...OCILLA...DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY...COLQUITT... NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM...MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS... NASHVILLE...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO...THOMASVILLE... QUITMAN...VALDOSTA...LAKELAND 143 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008 /1243 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 4 AM EDT (3 AM CDT)...A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AND ALONG THE ALABAMA-GEORGIA STATE LINE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE NORTH OF A LINE FROM ABBEVILLE ALABAMA TO TIFTON GEORGIA. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH...AND HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER...THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE SOUTH. $$ FOURNIER This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 22 00:53:27 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6M5rRw3018072 for ; Tue, 22 Jul 2008 00:53:27 -0500 Message-Id: <200807220553.m6M5rRw3018072@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 00:53:26 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 05:53:27 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT34 KNHC 220546 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 100 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008 ..DOLLY HEADED TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BROWNSVILLE TO PORT O'CONNOR. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LA PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 100 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.3 WEST OR ABOUT 320 MILES...515 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE WESTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM FROM THE CENTER. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 999 MB...29.50 INCHES. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. REPEATING THE 100 AM CDT POSITION...23.2 N...93.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 22 01:08:46 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6M68kw3018157 for ; Tue, 22 Jul 2008 01:08:46 -0500 Message-Id: <200807220608.m6M68kw3018157@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 01:08:46 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 06:08:46 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 220547 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL...CENTERED ABOUT 575 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA...AND ON TROPICAL STORM DOLLY...LOCATED ABOUT 320 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. A LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE HAS EMERGED FROM WESTERN AFRICA AND IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TRAVERSING RELATIVELY COOL WATERS...IT STILL HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER PASCH WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 22 01:58:41 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6M6wfw3018418 for ; Tue, 22 Jul 2008 01:58:41 -0500 Message-Id: <200807220658.m6M6wfw3018418@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 01:58:41 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 06:58:41 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 220657 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 257 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161- 220900- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON- JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN- CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL- IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE- DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES... CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY... DAWSON...ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTER...ASHBURN... TIFTON...FITZGERALD...OCILLA...DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY... COLQUITT...NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM...MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS... NASHVILLE...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO...THOMASVILLE... QUITMAN...VALDOSTA...LAKELAND 257 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008 /157 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 5 AM EDT (4 AM CDT)...AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH HAVE BEEN REMARKABLY PERSISTENT...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. $$ FOURNIER This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 22 03:41:28 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6M8fSw3018950 for ; Tue, 22 Jul 2008 03:41:28 -0500 Message-Id: <200807220841.m6M8fSw3018950@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 03:41:28 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 08:41:28 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT34 KNHC 220832 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 400 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008 ..DOLLY STRENGTHENS A LITTLE... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BROWNSVILLE TO PORT O'CONNOR. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LA PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 400 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.8 WEST OR ABOUT 295 MILES...475 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY WITH A FURTHER DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE WESTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM FROM THE CENTER. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. REPEATING THE 400 AM CDT POSITION...23.3 N...93.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 700 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 22 03:41:28 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6M8fSw3018953 for ; Tue, 22 Jul 2008 03:41:28 -0500 Message-Id: <200807220841.m6M8fSw3018953@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 03:41:28 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 08:41:29 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT44 KNHC 220833 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 500 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008 AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE DROPPED A LITTLE...TO 997 MB. THE SFMR ON BOARD THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED WINDS NEAR 60 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT BUT THESE READINGS WERE IN AREAS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION WHICH PROBABLY CAUSED SPIKES IN THE VELOCITY VALUES. ASSUMING THAT THESE WERE OVERESTIMATES BUT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE SLIGHTLY LOWER PRESSURE THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER...50 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS STILL IN THE ORGANIZING STAGE WITH SOME BANDING FEATURES OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THERE IS A PRONOUNCED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNEL EMANATING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION THAT EXTENDS ANTICYCLONICALLY AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF DOLLY AND POURING SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...HOWEVER OUTFLOW IS BEING INHIBITED OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STORM BY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES A MORE SYMMETRIC OUTFLOW PATTERN EVOLVING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. RECENT ENHANCED IR IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION NEAR/OVER THE CENTER WHICH SUGGESTS THAT FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS IMMINENT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...BUT NOT FAR FROM THE GFDL/HWRF PREDICTIONS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ONCE DOLLY ESTABLISHES AN INNER CORE...I.E. AN EYEWALL-LIKE STRUCTURE...THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION COULD BE FAIRLY RAPID IN COMPARISON TO WHAT WE HAVE OBSERVED THUS FAR. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT DOLLY WOULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL. FIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT THE MOTION HAS BEEN ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED...OR 280/13. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION ARE FORECAST TO ERODE SLIGHTLY THE PORTION OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER EASTERN TEXAS. AS A RESULT...THE TRACK OF DOLLY IS LIKELY TO BEND TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH ADDITIONAL DECELERATION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AND A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE LATEST GFDL/HWRF TRACKS. AGAIN IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT...DUE TO THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES...ONE MUST NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT LANDFALL POINT IN THIS FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0900Z 23.3N 93.8W 50 KT 12HR VT 22/1800Z 24.1N 95.1W 55 KT 24HR VT 23/0600Z 25.0N 96.5W 65 KT 36HR VT 23/1800Z 25.7N 97.5W 75 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 24/0600Z 26.0N 99.0W 45 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 25/0600Z 26.0N 102.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 22 03:56:47 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6M8ulw3019046 for ; Tue, 22 Jul 2008 03:56:47 -0500 Message-Id: <200807220856.m6M8ulw3019046@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 03:56:47 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 08:56:47 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT33 KNHC 220842 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008 500 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008 ..CRISTOBAL ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC... AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.2 WEST OR ABOUT 485 MILES...780 KM...NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 450 MILES...720 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR... AND A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS CRISTOBAL LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...39.1 N...68.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER RHOME WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 22 03:56:47 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6M8ulw3019049 for ; Tue, 22 Jul 2008 03:56:47 -0500 Message-Id: <200807220856.m6M8ulw3019049@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 03:56:47 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 08:56:48 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT43 KNHC 220842 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008 500 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008 THE OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS WHICH INDICATED PEAK WINDS AROUND 50 KT. ACCORDINGLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. CRISTOBAL'S FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CYCLONE OVER MUCH COOLER SSTS AS IT CROSSES THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULF STREAM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS FROM FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY INDICATE CRISTOBAL WILL TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER....SINCE THERE WILL BE LIMITED BAROCLINIC FORCING...WEAKENING APPEARS LIKELY. CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 055/18. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO FOLLOWED BY A TURN EASTWARD BETWEEN 24-48 HOURS...THEN SOUTHEASTWARD AT DAY 3 AS THE CYCLONE MERGES WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS BUT DIVERGES QUITE A BIT AT DAY 3. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0900Z 39.1N 68.2W 50 KT 12HR VT 22/1800Z 41.0N 65.2W 45 KT 24HR VT 23/0600Z 43.4N 60.6W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 23/1800Z 44.0N 55.7W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 24/0600Z 43.3N 50.6W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 25/0600Z 40.0N 43.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 26/0600Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER RHOME WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 22 05:03:01 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6MA31w3019992 for ; Tue, 22 Jul 2008 05:03:01 -0500 Message-Id: <200807221003.m6MA31w3019992@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 05:03:01 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Hazardous Weather Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 10:03:02 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FLUS42 KTAE 220958 HWOTAE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 558 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161- GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-231000- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON- JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN- CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL- IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE- DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- 558 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008 /458 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008/ ..HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES TODAY... ..HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES TODAY. ..ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA... SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS WILL BE STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. A FEW STORMS MAY EVEN REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IT WILL BE HOT AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES. THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG AREA BEACHES DUE TO 3 TO 5 FOOT SWELLS GENERATED BY TROPICAL STORM DOLLY. DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY... THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ON WEDNESDAY. TYPICAL SUMMER LIKE PATTERN WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY. SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP. $$ BARRY This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 22 06:38:41 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6MBcfw3020239 for ; Tue, 22 Jul 2008 06:38:41 -0500 Message-Id: <200807221138.m6MBcfw3020239@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 06:38:41 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Hazardous Weather Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 11:38:41 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FLUS44 KMOB 221136 HWOMOB HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 630 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008 ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078- 079-231200- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY- COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY- GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- 630 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND THE GULF COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA. DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY. THESE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL POSE A LIFE THREATENING HAZARD TO THOSE ENTERING THE SURF ZONE. THOSE PLANNING A TRIP TO AREA BEACHES SHOULD HEED THE ADVICE OF THE LOCAL BEACH PATROL AND LOCAL FLAG WARNING SYSTEMS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AROUND 45 MPH...IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. OTHERWISE...VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S AT MOST LOCATIONS TODAY. HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 98 TO 102 DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HEAT AND HUMIDITY AT THESE LEVELS CAN BE HAZARDOUS...ESPECIALLY FOR CHILDREN...THE ELDERLY... AND PEOPLE WITH CHRONIC AILMENTS. DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. NO SEVERE OR HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED. SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 22 07:15:17 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6MCFHw3020717 for ; Tue, 22 Jul 2008 07:15:17 -0500 Message-Id: <200807221215.m6MCFHw3020717@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 07:15:17 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 12:15:18 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT34 KNHC 221200 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 700 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008 ..DOLLY A LITTLE STRONGER...NOAA PLANE IN THE AREA... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BROWNSVILLE TO PORT O'CONNOR. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LA PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 700 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.0 WEST OR ABOUT 265 MILES...425 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. DOLLY HAS SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY WITH A FURTHER DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE WESTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. DATA FROM FROM A NOAA PLANE INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM FROM THE CENTER. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. REPEATING THE 700 AM CDT POSITION...23.7 N...94.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 22 07:15:17 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6MCFHw3020721 for ; Tue, 22 Jul 2008 07:15:17 -0500 Message-Id: <200807221215.m6MCFHw3020721@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 07:15:17 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 12:15:18 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 221205 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL...CENTERED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA...AND ON TROPICAL STORM DOLLY...LOCATED ABOUT 265 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. A LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TRAVERSING RELATIVELY COOL WATERS...IT STILL HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 22 09:48:05 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6MEm5w3023125 for ; Tue, 22 Jul 2008 09:48:05 -0500 Message-Id: <200807221448.m6MEm5w3023125@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 09:48:05 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 14:48:06 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT33 KNHC 221439 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008 1100 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008 ..CRISTOBAL STRENGTHENS BUT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOON... AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.9 WEST OR ABOUT 280 MILES...450 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A TURN TOWARDS THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS ON WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...40.9 N...65.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 22 09:48:05 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6MEm5w3023128 for ; Tue, 22 Jul 2008 09:48:05 -0500 Message-Id: <200807221448.m6MEm5w3023128@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 09:48:05 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 14:48:06 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT34 KNHC 221442 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 1000 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008 ..DOLLY NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH... AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM NORTH OF CORPUS CHRISTI TO PORT O'CONNOR HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI...AND FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CORPUS CHRISTI TO SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LA PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.5 WEST OR ABOUT 230 MILES...370 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A GENERAL NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS EXPECTED DURING THE ENXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WOULD BRING THE CORE OF DOLLY NEAR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OR EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...24.0 N...94.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 100 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 22 09:48:07 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6MEm7w3023134 for ; Tue, 22 Jul 2008 09:48:07 -0500 Message-Id: <200807221448.m6MEm7w3023134@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 09:48:07 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Forecast/Advisory X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 14:48:07 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT23 KNHC 221438 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008 1500 UTC TUE JUL 22 2008 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.9N 65.9W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 22 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 45SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 90SE 45SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 150SE 90SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.9N 65.9W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.0N 67.2W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 42.9N 62.6W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 45SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 75NE 90SE 45SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 44.5N 57.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 75SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 44.0N 51.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 42.5N 46.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 39.0N 41.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.9N 65.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE  This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 22 09:48:09 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6MEm9w3023144 for ; Tue, 22 Jul 2008 09:48:09 -0500 Message-Id: <200807221448.m6MEm9w3023144@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 09:48:08 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 14:48:09 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT43 KNHC 221440 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008 1100 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008 A 1013 SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS SHOWED A BANDED EYE STRUCTURE WITH CRISTOBAL...THOUGH IT ALSO INDICATED THE SURFACE CENTER WAS ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. BUOY 44011 ALSO SUGGESTS THE SURFACE CIRCULATION IS ELONGATED FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF THE IMPROVING SATELLITE PRESENTATION...THE WINDS ARE INCREASED CONSERVATIVELY TO 55 KT. THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST HURRAH FOR CRISTOBAL AS THE CYCLONE HAS PASSED NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM INTO COOLER WATERS. A RAPID EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS FORECAST BY ALL MODELS AND IS INDICATED BELOW. STEADY WEAKENING AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST DUE TO A STRONG SHEARING ENVIRONMENT AND NO BAROCLINIC FORCING. CRISTOBAL IS REALLY START TO MOVE AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/22. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND THEN EAST TOMORROW AS IT ROUNDS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST IS FORECAST DUE TO AN APPROACHING MIDDLE-LATITUDE TROUGH AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD EITHER DISSIPATE AROUND 4 DAYS OR BE ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF AND FASTER THAN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/1500Z 40.9N 65.9W 55 KT 12HR VT 23/0000Z 42.9N 62.6W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 23/1200Z 44.5N 57.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 24/0000Z 44.0N 51.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 24/1200Z 42.5N 46.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 25/1200Z 39.0N 41.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 22 09:48:09 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6MEm9w3023147 for ; Tue, 22 Jul 2008 09:48:09 -0500 Message-Id: <200807221448.m6MEm9w3023147@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 09:48:09 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 14:48:09 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT44 KNHC 221443 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 1100 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008 REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT DOLLY IS GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING. THE SFMR ON BOARD OF THE PLANE REPORTED AN ISOLATED PEAK OF 65 KNOTS...A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 991 MB AND AN OPEN EYEWALL OF 20 NMI IN DIAMETER. SSMI DATA SHOWS THE EARLY STAGES OF A CONVECTING RING AROUND THE CENTER. CONVECTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE BANDS WITH A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED OUTFLOW. BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL INTENSITY IS 60 KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LARGE 200 MB ANTICYCLONE OVER DOLLY. THIS UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IN COMBINATION WITH WARM WATERS SHOULD RESULT IN STRENGTHENING. BOTH GFDL AND HWRF INTENSITY FORECASTS HAVE GONE UP AND DOWN WITH EACH RUN...BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS UPWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS DOLLY TO 80 KNOTS AT LANDFALL...5 KNOTS HIGHER THAN INDICATED BY ALL GUIDANCE. FIXES FROM THE NOAA PLANE INDICATE THAT DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. A GENERAL NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS INDICATED UNTIL LANDFALL ON WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTH OF DOLLY AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD THEN TURN MORE TO WEST...BUT VERY SLOWLY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND BRINGS THE CORE OF DOLLY NEAR THE MEXICO/US BORDER ON WEDNESDAY. IT SHOULD BE RE-EMPHASIZED THAT...DUE TO THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES...ONE MUST NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT LANDFALL POINT IN THIS FORECAST. THE CENTER OF DOLLY IS BEGINNING TO SHOW UP ON BROWNSVILLE RADAR. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/1500Z 24.0N 94.5W 60 KT 12HR VT 23/0000Z 24.8N 95.6W 70 KT 24HR VT 23/1200Z 25.7N 97.0W 80 KT 36HR VT 24/0000Z 26.0N 98.0W 60 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 24/1200Z 26.0N 99.5W 40 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 25/1200Z 26.0N 102.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA  This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 22 10:37:16 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6MFbGw3023301 for ; Tue, 22 Jul 2008 10:37:16 -0500 Message-Id: <200807221537.m6MFbGw3023301@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 10:37:16 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 15:37:16 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 221535 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 1035 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008 ALZ059-061>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ078-079-221800- ESCAMBIA-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN- INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-STONE-GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON... PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE...TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE... DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY...SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON... MOLINO...PENSACOLA...FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA... BELLVIEW...ENSLEY...MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON... GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW...WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH... NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE...EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO... WIGGINS...LUCEDALE 1035 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008 NOW... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THROUGH 1PM ...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THESE SEA BREEZE STORMS WILL INITIALLY MOVE VERY LITTLE...BUT BEGIN TO MOVE OFF TOWARD THE NORTH AROUND 10 MPH AS THEY BECOME BETTER DEVELOPED. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME STRONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING...BRIEF WIND GUSTS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH...AND BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 22 10:46:38 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6MFkcw3023329 for ; Tue, 22 Jul 2008 10:46:38 -0500 Message-Id: <200807221546.m6MFkcw3023329@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 10:46:38 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 15:46:39 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 221545 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1145 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008 FLZ008-010-012>015-026-027-221730- COASTAL WALTON-WASHINGTON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-LIBERTY- WAKULLA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...INWOOD...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY... FIVE POINTS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY...LYNN HAVEN... UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY...PORT ST. JOE... WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...SWEETWATER... SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS 1145 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008 /1045 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 130 PM EDT (1230 PM CDT)...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST INLAND FROM THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND COASTLINE. THESE STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVERS BUT TEND TO DRIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WITH TIME. DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED IN ADDITION TO SCATTERED TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY FALL BETWEEN ONE TENTH AND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...HOWEVER UP TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. $$ MROCZKA This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 22 12:13:14 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6MHDEw3023541 for ; Tue, 22 Jul 2008 12:13:14 -0500 Message-Id: <200807221713.m6MHDEw3023541@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 12:13:14 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 17:13:14 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 221710 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 110 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008 FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GMZ730-750-755-765-221900- INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY- CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY- WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY 110 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008 /1210 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 300 PM EDT (200 PM CDT)...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP JUST INLAND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND COASTLINE. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST...AND WILL BE MOST CONCENTRATED SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BONIFAY TO TALLAHASSEE. DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN ONE TENTH AND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...HOWEVER UP TO AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. $$ JAMSKI This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 22 12:51:47 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6MHplw3023681 for ; Tue, 22 Jul 2008 12:51:47 -0500 Message-Id: <200807221751.m6MHplw3023681@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 12:51:47 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 17:51:47 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT34 KNHC 221746 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 100 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008 ..DOLLY NOT QUITE A HURRICANE YET... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI...AND FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CORPUS CHRISTI TO SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LA PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 100 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.9 WEST OR ABOUT 195 MILES...310 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. DOLLY HAS SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE BIT AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A GENERAL NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WOULD BRING THE CORE OF DOLLY NEAR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OR EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. REPEATING THE 100 PM CDT POSITION...24.3 N...94.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 22 13:07:12 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6MI7Cw3023767 for ; Tue, 22 Jul 2008 13:07:12 -0500 Message-Id: <200807221807.m6MI7Cw3023767@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 13:07:12 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 18:07:12 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 221801 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL...CENTERED ABOUT 280 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA...AND ON TROPICAL STORM DOLLY...LOCATED ABOUT 195 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. A LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 22 13:16:29 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6MIGTw3023863 for ; Tue, 22 Jul 2008 13:16:29 -0500 Message-Id: <200807221816.m6MIGTw3023863@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 13:16:29 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 18:16:29 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 221813 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 213 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008 FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GMZ730-750-755-765-222000- INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY- CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY- WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY 213 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008 /113 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 400 PM EDT (300 PM CDT)...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SEA BREEZE FRONT AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES INLAND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST...WITH A FEW MOVING INTO THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ..FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN ONE TENTH AND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...HOWEVER UP TO AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. $$ JAMSKI This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 22 13:16:29 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6MIGTw3023866 for ; Tue, 22 Jul 2008 13:16:29 -0500 Message-Id: <200807221816.m6MIGTw3023866@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 13:16:29 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 18:16:29 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 221813 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 213 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008 ALZ065>069-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-222000- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-QUITMAN-CLAY-RANDOLPH-CALHOUN- TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-EARLY- MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-DECATUR- GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES...CUTHBERT... SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY...DAWSON... ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTER...ASHBURN...TIFTON... FITZGERALD...OCILLA...DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY...COLQUITT... NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM...MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS... NASHVILLE...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO...THOMASVILLE... QUITMAN...VALDOSTA...LAKELAND 213 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008 /113 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 400 PM EDT (300 PM CDT)...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. $$ JAMSKI This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 22 13:30:54 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6MIUsw3023988 for ; Tue, 22 Jul 2008 13:30:54 -0500 Message-Id: <200807221830.m6MIUsw3023988@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 13:30:54 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 18:30:54 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 221829 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 129 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008 ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-222000- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY- GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM... MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN... PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE... LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON... ANDALUSIA...OPP...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE... TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY... SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA... FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY... MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW... WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE... EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT... NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE 129 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008 NOW... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. THROUGH 3 PM ...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THESE SEA BREEZE STORMS WILL INITIALLY MOVE VERY LITTLE...BUT BEGIN TO MOVE OFF TOWARD THE NORTH AROUND 10 MPH AS THEY BECOME BETTER DEVELOPED. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME STRONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING...BRIEF WIND GUSTS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH...AND BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 22 15:04:29 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6MK4Tw3024479 for ; Tue, 22 Jul 2008 15:04:29 -0500 Message-Id: <200807222004.m6MK4Tw3024479@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 15:04:29 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 20:04:30 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 222002 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 402 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008 FLZ007>019-026>029-034-222200- INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY- CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY- WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY 402 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008 /302 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 600 PM EDT (500 PM CDT)...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SEA BREEZE FRONT AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES INLAND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN ONE TENTH AND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...HOWEVER UP TO AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. $$ JAMSKI This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 22 15:04:30 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6MK4Uw3024482 for ; Tue, 22 Jul 2008 15:04:30 -0500 Message-Id: <200807222004.m6MK4Uw3024482@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 15:04:29 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 20:04:30 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 222002 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 402 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008 ALZ065>069-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-222200- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-QUITMAN-CLAY-RANDOLPH-CALHOUN- TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-EARLY- MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-DECATUR- GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES...CUTHBERT... SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY...DAWSON... ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTER...ASHBURN...TIFTON... FITZGERALD...OCILLA...DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY...COLQUITT... NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM...MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS... NASHVILLE...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO...THOMASVILLE... QUITMAN...VALDOSTA...LAKELAND 402 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008 /302 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 600 PM EDT (500 PM CDT)...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE CONCENTRATED NORTH OF A LINE FROM FORT GAINES TO NASHVILLE GEORGIA. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...AND SMALL HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. $$ JAMSKI This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 22 15:40:05 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6MKe5w3024699 for ; Tue, 22 Jul 2008 15:40:05 -0500 Message-Id: <200807222040.m6MKe5w3024699@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 15:40:05 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 20:40:05 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT33 KNHC 222033 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008 500 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008 ..CRISTOBAL STARTING TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS... AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.9 WEST OR ABOUT 170 MILES...275 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 28 MPH...44 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A TURN TOWARD THE EAST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVERNIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...42.2 N...62.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 28 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 22 15:40:05 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6MKe5w3024702 for ; Tue, 22 Jul 2008 15:40:05 -0500 Message-Id: <200807222040.m6MKe5w3024702@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 15:40:05 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Forecast/Advisory X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 20:40:05 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT23 KNHC 222033 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008 2100 UTC TUE JUL 22 2008 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.2N 62.9W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 24 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 90SE 45SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 150SE 90SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.2N 62.9W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.7N 64.2W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 44.0N 58.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 45SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 45.0N 53.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 44.0N 48.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 42.0N 43.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 42.2N 62.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 22 15:55:25 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6MKtPw3024835 for ; Tue, 22 Jul 2008 15:55:25 -0500 Message-Id: <200807222055.m6MKtPw3024835@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 15:55:25 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 20:55:25 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT43 KNHC 222049 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008 500 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MID-LEVEL CENTER OF CRISTOBAL IS RAPIDLY BECOMING DECOUPLED FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. WINDS ARE DECREASED TO 45 KT ON THIS ADVISORY AND SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL OVERNIGHT. A STEADY DECREASE IN STRENGTH IS SHOWN BY ALL GUIDANCE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD. STEADY WEAKENING AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IS ALSO FORECAST DUE TO A STRONG SHEARING ENVIRONMENT AND NO BAROCLINIC FORCING. CRISTOBAL HAS CONTINUED TO ACCELERATE AND IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 24 KT. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE REMNANT OF CRISTOBAL ARE EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE EAST TOMORROW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. GLOBAL MODELS TURN THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO AN APPROACHING MIDDLE-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD EITHER OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH OR BE ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. CANADIAN BUOY 44137 WAS VERY HELPFUL IN DETERMINING THE WIND RADII. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/2100Z 42.2N 62.9W 45 KT 12HR VT 23/0600Z 44.0N 58.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 23/1800Z 45.0N 53.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 24/0600Z 44.0N 48.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 24/1800Z 42.0N 43.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 22 16:09:02 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6ML92w3024911 for ; Tue, 22 Jul 2008 16:09:02 -0500 Message-Id: <200807222109.m6ML92w3024911@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 16:09:02 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 21:09:03 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 222108 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 508 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008 FLZ007>019-026>029-034-222300- INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY- CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY- WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY 508 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008 /408 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 7 PM EDT (6 PM CDT)...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THE OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVEL NORTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND REGION. INITIALLY THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF RAINFALL WILL BE LOCATED IN HOLMES AND JACKSON COUNTIES...BUT SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DECREASE DURING THE NEXT TWO HOURS. $$ RUBIO This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 22 16:09:02 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6ML92w3024913 for ; Tue, 22 Jul 2008 16:09:02 -0500 Message-Id: <200807222109.m6ML92w3024913@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 16:09:02 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 21:09:03 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 222108 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 508 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008 ALZ065>069-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-222300- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-QUITMAN-CLAY-RANDOLPH-CALHOUN- TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-EARLY- MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-DECATUR- GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES...CUTHBERT... SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY...DAWSON... ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTER...ASHBURN...TIFTON... FITZGERALD...OCILLA...DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY...COLQUITT... NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM...MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS... NASHVILLE...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO...THOMASVILLE... QUITMAN...VALDOSTA...LAKELAND 508 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008 /408 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 7 PM EDT (6 PM CDT)...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRAVEL SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING NEARLY CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 MPH...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SMALL HAIL. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL INITIALLY BE LOCATED IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...PARTICULARLY IN WORTH...QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...TERRELL...AND DOUGHERTY COUNTIES. SOME STORMS MAY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT TWO HOURS...AND EXISTING CELLS AND THEIR GUST FRONTS MAY COLLIDE TO FORM ADDITIONAL STORMS. $$ RUBIO This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 22 16:10:45 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6MLAjw3024942 for ; Tue, 22 Jul 2008 16:10:45 -0500 Message-Id: <200807222110.m6MLAjw3024942@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 16:10:45 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 21:10:46 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT34 KNHC 222102 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 400 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008 ..DOLLY BECOMES A HURRICANE...THE SECOND OF THE 2008 HURRICANE SEASON... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI...AND FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CORPUS CHRISTI TO SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LA PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.3 WEST OR ABOUT 165 MILES... 265 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CORE OF DOLLY NEAR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OR EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DOLLY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO REACH THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS LATER TONIGHT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TEXAS COASTS. REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...24.6 N...95.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 22 16:10:45 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6MLAjw3024945 for ; Tue, 22 Jul 2008 16:10:45 -0500 Message-Id: <200807222110.m6MLAjw3024945@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 16:10:45 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 21:10:46 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT44 KNHC 222107 TCDAT4 HURRICANE DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 500 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008 DOLLY IS BEING CLOSELY MONITORED BY THE NWS RADAR FROM BROWNSVILLE...NOAA BUOYS..SATELLITE AND VERY IMPORTANTLY...BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT. THE RADAR IS MEASURING 75 KNOTS AT ABOUT 20 THOUSAND FEET AND SHOW NUMEROUS RAINBANDS ALREADY APPROACHING THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS. DVORAK ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT DOLLY IS A HURRICANE AND WIND DATA JUST RECEIVED FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAVE CONFIRMED IT. INITIAL INTENSITY IS 65 KNOTS. WITH THE PREVAILING LOW SHEAR...DOLLY IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST A LITTLE BIT STRONGER. DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A SMALL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF DOLLY SHOULD BE NEAR THE US/MEXICO BORDER WITHIN THE WARNING AREA ON WEDNESDAY. DOLLY IS LARGE CYCLONE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT. AFTER LANDFALL...DOLLY SHOULD TURN MORE TO WEST AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING THE CORE OF DOLLY INLAND IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. IT SHOULD BE RE-EMPHASIZED THAT...DUE TO THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES...ONE MUST NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT LANDFALL POINT IN THIS FORECAST. DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION AT LANDFALL...DOLLY COULD DUMP VERY HEAVY RAINS IN THE AREA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/2100Z 24.6N 95.3W 65 KT 12HR VT 23/0600Z 25.3N 96.4W 70 KT 24HR VT 23/1800Z 26.0N 97.5W 80 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 24/0600Z 26.0N 99.0W 40 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 24/1800Z 26.0N 100.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 22 16:52:46 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6MLqkw3025173 for ; Tue, 22 Jul 2008 16:52:46 -0500 Message-Id: <200807222152.m6MLqkw3025173@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 16:52:46 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Special Weather Statement X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 21:52:46 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WWUS84 KMOB 222150 SPSMOB SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 450 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008 ALZ058-222215- CRENSHAW- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LUVERNE... 450 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008 ..A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS BEING DETECTED OVER CRENSHAW COUNTY... AT 448 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PATSBURG...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 7 MPH. THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND... EAST CENTRAL CRENSHAW COUNTY THROUGH 515 PM CDT. THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG COULD DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. THIS STORM COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN BRIEF PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 22 17:01:48 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6MM1mw3025226 for ; Tue, 22 Jul 2008 17:01:48 -0500 Message-Id: <200807222201.m6MM1mw3025226@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 17:01:47 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 22:01:48 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 222159 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 559 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008 FLZ007>019-026>029-034-230000- INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY- CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY- WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY 559 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008 /459 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 8 PM EDT (7 PM CDT)...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVEL NORTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND REGION. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DECREASE DURING THE NEXT TWO HOURS...BUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THE OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP AS GUST FRONTS COLLIDE OVER THE AREA. $$ RUBIO This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 22 17:01:48 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6MM1mw3025229 for ; Tue, 22 Jul 2008 17:01:48 -0500 Message-Id: <200807222201.m6MM1mw3025229@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 17:01:48 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 22:01:48 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 222159 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 559 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008 ALZ065>069-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-230000- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-QUITMAN-CLAY-RANDOLPH-CALHOUN- TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-EARLY- MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-DECATUR- GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES...CUTHBERT... SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY...DAWSON... ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTER...ASHBURN...TIFTON... FITZGERALD...OCILLA...DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY...COLQUITT... NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM...MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS... NASHVILLE...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO...THOMASVILLE... QUITMAN...VALDOSTA...LAKELAND 559 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008 /459 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 8 PM EDT (7 PM CDT)...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRAVEL TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING FREQUENT LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 MPH...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SMALL HAIL. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL INITIALLY BE LOCATED IN QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...CALHOUN...AND BERRIEN COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. SOME STORMS MAY DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT TWO HOURS...BUT ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD DEVELOP AND EXISTING CELLS AND GUST FRONTS COLLIDE. $$ RUBIO This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 22 17:17:03 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6MMH3w3025318 for ; Tue, 22 Jul 2008 17:17:03 -0500 Message-Id: <200807222217.m6MMH3w3025318@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 17:17:03 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 22:17:03 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 222215 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 515 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008 ALZ054>060-230100- WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CAMDEN...PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD... MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE...LUVERNE...BRANTLEY... ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON...ANDALUSIA...OPP 515 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008 NOW... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST OVER SOUTH WEST MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THROUGH 8 PM...THESE SHOWERS WILL BRING UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN...CAUSING PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND LOW LYING AREAS. WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 22 18:43:33 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6MNhWw3025815 for ; Tue, 22 Jul 2008 18:43:32 -0500 Message-Id: <200807222343.m6MNhWw3025815@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 18:43:32 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 23:43:33 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 222338 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL...CENTERED ABOUT 170 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA...AND ON RECENTLY UPGRADED HURRICANE DOLLY...LOCATED ABOUT 165 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. A LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 22 19:14:08 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6N0E8w3025982 for ; Tue, 22 Jul 2008 19:14:08 -0500 Message-Id: <200807230014.m6N0E8w3025982@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 19:14:08 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 00:14:08 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT34 KNHC 222359 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 700 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008 ..DOLLY CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI...AND FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CORPUS CHRISTI TO SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LA PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 700 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.7 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES... 205 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH...18 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL OF THE CENTER OF DOLLY ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OR EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS NEAR MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DOLLY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO REACH THE COASTS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS LATER TONIGHT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TEXAS COASTS. REPEATING THE 700 PM CDT POSITION...24.9 N...95.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 22 19:23:24 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6N0NOw3026034 for ; Tue, 22 Jul 2008 19:23:24 -0500 Message-Id: <200807230023.m6N0NOw3026034@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 19:23:24 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Local Storm Report X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 00:23:24 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) NWUS52 KTAE 222203 LSRTAE PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 603 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0553 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 N PECAN 31.68N 84.99W 07/22/2008 CLAY GA LAW ENFORCEMENT SEVERAL TREES KNOCKED DOWN ON HWY 266 BY A DOWNBURST. && $$ GOULD This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 22 19:23:24 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6N0NOw3026037 for ; Tue, 22 Jul 2008 19:23:24 -0500 Message-Id: <200807230023.m6N0NOw3026037@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 19:23:24 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 00:23:25 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 230021 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 721 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008 ALZ064-FLZ002-004-006-GMZ650-655-670-675-230300- LOWER BALDWIN-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA- COASTAL OKALOOSA- COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY... SPANISH FORT...PENSACOLA...FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA... BELLVIEW...ENSLEY...MYRTLE GROVE...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE... WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE... EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO 721 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008 NOW... ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER ALABAMA AND WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THROUGH 10 PM...THESE SHOWERS WILL BRING LOCALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES...WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS OR 30 MPH IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 KNOTS...MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE ALABAMA AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE COASTAL COUNTIES. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 22 19:33:33 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6N0XXw3026105 for ; Tue, 22 Jul 2008 19:33:33 -0500 Message-Id: <200807230033.m6N0XXw3026105@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 19:33:33 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 00:33:34 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 230032 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 832 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008 ALZ065>069-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-230300- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-QUITMAN-CLAY-RANDOLPH-CALHOUN- TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-EARLY- MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-DECATUR- GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES...CUTHBERT... SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY...DAWSON... ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTER...ASHBURN...TIFTON... FITZGERALD...OCILLA...DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY...COLQUITT... NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM...MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS... NASHVILLE...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO...THOMASVILLE... QUITMAN...VALDOSTA...LAKELAND 832 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008 /732 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 1100 PM EDT (1000 PM CDT)...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT A FEW COULD APPROACH DALE...HENRY...AND QUITMAN COUNTIES BEFORE THEY WEAKEN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. $$ GOULD This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 22 20:17:18 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6N1HIw3026366 for ; Tue, 22 Jul 2008 20:17:18 -0500 Message-Id: <200807230117.m6N1HIw3026366@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 20:17:18 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Special Weather Statement X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 01:17:19 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WWUS84 KMOB 230114 SPSMOB SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 812 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008 ALZ054-057-058-230215- BUTLER-CRENSHAW-WILCOX- 812 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008 ..A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN BUTLER...NORTHERN CRENSHAW AND EASTERN WILCOX COUNTIES... AT 812 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15 MILES NORTH OF ACKERVILLE TO 5 MILES NORTH OF HIGHLAND HOME...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 19 MPH. THESE LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND... HIGHLAND HOME...BRADLEYTON...ACKERVILLE...PETREY...ACKERVILLE AND SAVILLE THROUGH 915 PM CDT. THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG COULD DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS IN THIS LINE COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN BRIEF PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 22 20:26:33 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6N1QXw3026453 for ; Tue, 22 Jul 2008 20:26:33 -0500 Message-Id: <200807230126.m6N1QXw3026453@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 20:26:33 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Hazardous Weather Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 01:26:33 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FLUS44 KMOB 222357 HWOMOB HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 655 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008 ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078- 079-231200- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY- COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY- GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- 655 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND THE GULF COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA. DAY ONE...LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND INTERIOR SOUTH ALABAMA THROUGH 10 PM. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AROUND 45 MPH...SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAINS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WITH GUSTY WINDS AROUND 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL. THE STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS NORTH OF A LINE FROM WAYNESBORO...TO MONROEVILLE...TO LUVERNE LINE. TO THE SOUTH...ISOLATED WEAKER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTHWARD TO THE COAST. THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH TONIGHT. THESE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL POSE A LIFE THREATENING HAZARD TO THOSE ENTERING THE SURF ZONE. THOSE PLANNING A TRIP TO AREA BEACHES SHOULD HEED THE ADVICE OF THE LOCAL BEACH PATROL AND LOCAL FLAG WARNING SYSTEMS. DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. NO SEVERE OR HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED. SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 22 20:53:01 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6N1r1w3026597 for ; Tue, 22 Jul 2008 20:53:01 -0500 Message-Id: <200807230153.m6N1r1w3026597@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 20:53:01 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 01:53:02 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 230152 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 952 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008 ALZ065>069-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-230400- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-QUITMAN-CLAY-RANDOLPH-CALHOUN- TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-EARLY- MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-DECATUR- GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES...CUTHBERT... SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY...DAWSON... ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTER...ASHBURN...TIFTON... FITZGERALD...OCILLA...DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY...COLQUITT... NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM...MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS... NASHVILLE...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO...THOMASVILLE... QUITMAN...VALDOSTA...LAKELAND 952 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008 /852 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 12 AM EDT (11 PM CDT)...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND COULD PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...PARTICULARLY IN ALABAMA COUNTIES AND QUITMAN COUNTY IN GEORGIA. $$ RUBIO This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 22 21:46:54 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6N2ksw3026910 for ; Tue, 22 Jul 2008 21:46:54 -0500 Message-Id: <200807230246.m6N2ksw3026910@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 21:46:54 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 02:46:55 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT33 KNHC 230243 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008 1100 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008 ..CRISTOBAL RACING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC... AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 44.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.0 WEST OR ABOUT 230 MILES...370 KM...EAST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 35 MPH...56 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE EAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS CRISTOBAL LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...44.0 N...59.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 35 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER RHOME This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 22 21:46:55 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6N2ktw3026913 for ; Tue, 22 Jul 2008 21:46:55 -0500 Message-Id: <200807230246.m6N2ktw3026913@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 21:46:55 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Forecast/Advisory X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 02:46:55 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT23 KNHC 230242 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008 0300 UTC WED JUL 23 2008 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.0N 59.0W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 30 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 75SE 45SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 150SE 90SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.0N 59.0W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 43.3N 60.7W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 45.1N 54.8W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 75SE 45SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 45.0N 49.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 75SE 45SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 43.3N 44.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 44.0N 59.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER RHOME This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 22 21:46:55 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6N2ktw3026916 for ; Tue, 22 Jul 2008 21:46:55 -0500 Message-Id: <200807230246.m6N2ktw3026916@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 21:46:55 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 02:46:55 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT43 KNHC 230242 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008 1100 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008 WHILE THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE ASSOCIATED WITH CRISTOBAL HAS DEGRADED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...NEARBY BUOY AND SHIP REPORTS INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS STILL PRODUCING WINDS OF AT LEAST 40-45 KT. ACCORDINGLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. NOW THAT THE EARLIER BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED...WEAKENING SHOULD RESUME. CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...SINCE THERE WILL NOT BE ANY SIGNIFICANT BAROCLINIC FORCING...THE EXTRATROPICAL CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM. CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND IS NOW MOVING AT AN ESTIMATED SPEED OF 30 KT. GLOBAL MODELS...SAVE THE UKMET... SUGGEST A DECREASE IN FOREWARD SPEED BUT THEY DID NOT ADVERTISE THE CURRENT ACCELERATION. ACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FASTER THAN AND NORTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE RECENT PERFORMANCE OF THE UKMET. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0300Z 44.0N 59.0W 45 KT 12HR VT 23/1200Z 45.1N 54.8W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 24/0000Z 45.0N 49.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 24/1200Z 43.3N 44.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 25/0000Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER RHOME This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 22 22:00:21 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6N30Lw3027003 for ; Tue, 22 Jul 2008 22:00:21 -0500 Message-Id: <200807230300.m6N30Lw3027003@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 22:00:21 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 03:00:21 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 230258 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 958 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008 ALZ054>060-230500- WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CAMDEN...PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD... MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE...LUVERNE...BRANTLEY... ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON...ANDALUSIA...OPP 958 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008 NOW... A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH AT 15 MPH ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THESE SHOWERS WILL BRING UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN...WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS BRINGING WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 22 22:00:21 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6N30Lw3027006 for ; Tue, 22 Jul 2008 22:00:21 -0500 Message-Id: <200807230300.m6N30Lw3027006@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 22:00:21 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 03:00:21 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 230258 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 958 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008 FLZ002-004-006-GMZ655-675-230500- COASTAL ESCAMBIA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA- COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PENSACOLA...FERRY PASS...BRENT... WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY...MYRTLE GROVE...PACE... MILTON...GULF BREEZE...WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE... DESTIN...SEMINOLE...EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO 958 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008 NOW... ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ASSOCIATED COASTAL WATERS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THESE SHOWERS WILL BRING LOCALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES OVER THE WATERS. THE STRONGER SHOWERS WILL BRING WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS OR 25 MPH. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 22 22:02:14 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6N32Ew3027030 for ; Tue, 22 Jul 2008 22:02:14 -0500 Message-Id: <200807230302.m6N32Ew3027030@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 22:02:14 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 03:02:15 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT34 KNHC 230258 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 1000 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008 ..DOLLY A LITTLE STRONGER...MOVING A LITTLE SLOWER... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CORPUS CHRISTI TO SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM LA PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.0 WEST OR ABOUT 110 MILES... 175 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A FURTHER REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL BE ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER AROUND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DOLLY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO REACH THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...25.1 N...96.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 100 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 22 22:02:15 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6N32Fw3027033 for ; Tue, 22 Jul 2008 22:02:15 -0500 Message-Id: <200807230302.m6N32Fw3027033@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 22:02:15 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 03:02:15 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT44 KNHC 230259 TCDAT4 HURRICANE DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 1100 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008 THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD BEEN FALLING AT A LITTLE OVER 1 MB/HR EARLIER THIS EVENING...BUT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS APPEARS TO HAVE LEVELED OFF. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SFMR ON THE NOAA AIRCRAFT WERE 70 KT...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED ON THIS BASIS. DOLLY HAS SPENT THE LAST 12 HOURS OR SO TRAVERSING A COOL GULF RING...AND THIS ENCOUNTER MAY BE SLOWING THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CYCLONE'S OUTFLOW IS BEGINNING TO BECOME RESTRICTED TO THE WEST BY A NARROW UPPER LOW OVER WEST TEXAS. CONVECTION REMAINS ASYMMETRIC...FAVORING THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND THE RADAR PRESENTATION HAS NOT IMPROVED APPRECIABLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THESE OBSERVATIONS LEAD ME TO BELIEVE THAT ONLY MODEST ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL... ASSUMING...OF COURSE...THAT DOLLY DOES NOT REMAIN OVER WATER SIGNIFICANTLY LONGER THAN EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SHIPS/LGEM AND THE GFDL. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/8. THE FORWARD SPEED HAS BEEN GRADUALLY SLOWING DURING THE DAY...AS A MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND WEAKENS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. MODEL GUIDANCE...CONTINUES TO SLOW THE FORWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...TO 5 KT OR LESS IN THE CASE OF THE GFS. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN QUITE GOOD WITH THE VARIATIONS IN SPEED WITH THIS STORM SO FAR...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. AFTER LANDFALL...DOLLY SHOULD TURN WESTWARD AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER SPEED TO THE SOUTH OF A SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID-LEVEL RIDGE. SHOULD DOLLY SLOW AS MUCH AS THE GFS IS FORECASTING...THE CURRENT RAINFALL ESTIMATES...OF UP TO 15 INCHES IN SPOTS...WILL LIKELY BE LOW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0300Z 25.1N 96.0W 70 KT 12HR VT 23/1200Z 25.7N 97.0W 80 KT 24HR VT 24/0000Z 26.1N 98.3W 50 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 24/1200Z 26.3N 99.8W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 22 23:13:39 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6N4Ddw3027588 for ; Tue, 22 Jul 2008 23:13:39 -0500 Message-Id: <200807230413.m6N4Ddw3027588@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 23:13:39 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 04:13:39 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 230410 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1210 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2008 ALZ065>069-230615- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH 1110 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008 NOW... THROUGH 1 AM CDT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH THROUGH PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. $$ CAMP This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 22 23:26:50 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6N4Qow3027727 for ; Tue, 22 Jul 2008 23:26:50 -0500 Message-Id: <200807230426.m6N4Qow3027727@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 23:26:50 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Hazardous Weather Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 04:26:50 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FLUS44 KMOB 230423 HWOMOB HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 1122 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008 ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078- 079-231200- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY- COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY- GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- 1122 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND THE GULF COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA. DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTH ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AROUND 2 INCHES PER HOUR WITH GUSTY WINDS AROUND 35 MPH. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY. STRONGER STORMS ON WEDNESDAY WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 45 MPH...IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL. AN INCREASED RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES TONIGHT ALONG THE GULF BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA. THESE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL POSE A LIFE THREATENING HAZARD TO THOSE ENTERING THE SURF ZONE. THOSE PLANNING A TRIP TO AREA BEACHES SHOULD HEED THE ADVICE OF THE LOCAL BEACH PATROL AND LOCAL FLAG WARNING SYSTEMS. SWELLS GENERATED FROM HURRICANE DOLLY IN THE WESTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS FROM 4 TO 6 FEET IN SWELLS OVER THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS FROM 20 TO 60 MILES FROM SHORE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MORNING. DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. NO ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Tue Jul 22 23:46:13 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6N4kDw3027884 for ; Tue, 22 Jul 2008 23:46:13 -0500 Message-Id: <200807230446.m6N4kDw3027884@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2008 23:46:13 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 04:46:13 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 230444 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 1144 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008 ALZ051>060-MSZ067-075-076-230700- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM... MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN... PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE... LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON... ANDALUSIA...OPP...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT...NEW AUGUSTA... LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN 1144 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008 NOW... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER WEST-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THROUGH 2 AM...THESE SHOWERS WILL BRING UP TO HALF AN INCH OF RAIN AS THEY PASS. MOVEMENT OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHOWERS WILL BE EAST-NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH...WITH SOME OUTFLOW DRIVEN DEVELOPMENT SOUTHWARD. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 23 00:50:15 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6N5oFw3028217 for ; Wed, 23 Jul 2008 00:50:15 -0500 Message-Id: <200807230550.m6N5oFw3028217@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 00:50:15 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 05:50:15 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT34 KNHC 230541 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 100 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008 ..RAINBANDS OF DOLLY CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE COAST... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CORPUS CHRISTI TO SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM LA PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 100 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.3 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES... 140 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. SOME FURTHER DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL BE ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER AROUND MIDDAY TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DOLLY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVATIONS FROM BROWNSVILLE SUGGEST THAT THE HURRICANE IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO REACH THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 982 MB...29.00 INCHES. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. REPEATING THE 100 AM CDT POSITION...25.3 N...96.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 23 00:50:15 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6N5oFw3028220 for ; Wed, 23 Jul 2008 00:50:15 -0500 Message-Id: <200807230550.m6N5oFw3028220@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 00:50:15 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 05:50:15 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 230549 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL...LOCATED ABOUT 230 MILES EAST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA...AND ON HURRICANE DOLLY...CENTERED ABOUT 85 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. A LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC JUST WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER PASCH WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 23 03:53:30 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6N8rUw3029169 for ; Wed, 23 Jul 2008 03:53:30 -0500 Message-Id: <200807230853.m6N8rUw3029169@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 03:53:30 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 08:53:30 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT33 KNHC 230847 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008 500 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2008 ..CRISTOBAL BECOMING AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE... AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 44.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.9 WEST OR ABOUT 380 MILES...610 KM...EAST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 31 MPH...50 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE EAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...44.7 N...55.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 31 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON CRISTOBAL. $$ FORECASTER RHOME WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 23 03:53:30 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6N8rUw3029172 for ; Wed, 23 Jul 2008 03:53:30 -0500 Message-Id: <200807230853.m6N8rUw3029172@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 03:53:30 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 08:53:30 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT34 KNHC 230844 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 400 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008 ..DOLLY STRENGTHENS AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CORPUS CHRISTI TO SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM LA PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 400 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.5 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES... 105 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL BE ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER AROUND MIDDAY TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DOLLY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED...AND DOLLY COULD APPROACH CATEGORY TWO INTENSITY WHEN IT REACHES THE COASTLINE LATER TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED THAT THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 976 MB...28.82 INCHES. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 400 AM CDT POSITION...25.6 N...96.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 700 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 23 03:53:30 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6N8rUw3029175 for ; Wed, 23 Jul 2008 03:53:30 -0500 Message-Id: <200807230853.m6N8rUw3029175@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 03:53:30 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Forecast/Advisory X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 08:53:30 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT23 KNHC 230846 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008 0900 UTC WED JUL 23 2008 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.7N 55.9W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 27 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 45NE 75SE 75SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 150SE 90SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.7N 55.9W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 44.4N 57.5W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 45.3N 51.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 150SE 150SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 44.4N 44.8W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 150SE 150SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 42.6N 38.7W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 44.7N 55.9W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON CRITOBAL. $$ FORECASTER RHOME This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 23 03:53:30 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6N8rUw3029178 for ; Wed, 23 Jul 2008 03:53:30 -0500 Message-Id: <200807230853.m6N8rUw3029178@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 03:53:30 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Forecast/Advisory X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 08:53:31 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT24 KNHC 230843 TCMAT4 HURRICANE DOLLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 0900 UTC WED JUL 23 2008 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CORPUS CHRISTI TO SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM LA PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 96.5W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 150SE 75SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 96.5W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 96.2W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 26.0N 97.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 26.3N 98.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 26.4N 100.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N 96.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 23 03:53:31 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6N8rUw3029181 for ; Wed, 23 Jul 2008 03:53:30 -0500 Message-Id: <200807230853.m6N8rUw3029181@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 03:53:30 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 08:53:31 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT43 KNHC 230848 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008 500 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2008 ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION HAS DISSIPATED AND CRISTOBAL NO LONGER HAS THE APPEARANCE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS USING GLOBAL MODEL OUTPUT ALSO SUGGEST THAT CRISTOBAL HAS TRANSITIONED INTO AN ASYMMETRIC COLD CORE LOW...I.E. AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. WITH THAT...CRISTOBAL IS DECLARED EXTRATROPICAL AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CRISTOBAL CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. THE DEGRADATION OF THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE SUGGEST CRISTOBAL HAS WEAKENED SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT. SINCE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE A LACK OF BAROCLINIC FORCING...CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO PRIOR TO CRISTOBAL MERGING WITH OR BEING ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0900Z 44.7N 55.9W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 12HR VT 23/1800Z 45.3N 51.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 24/0600Z 44.4N 44.8W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 24/1800Z 42.6N 38.7W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 25/0600Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER RHOME This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 23 03:53:31 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6N8rVw3029184 for ; Wed, 23 Jul 2008 03:53:31 -0500 Message-Id: <200807230853.m6N8rVw3029184@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 03:53:31 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 08:53:31 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT44 KNHC 230844 TCDAT4 HURRICANE DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 500 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2008 AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER DROPSONDE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 976 MB...A RATHER SIGNIFICANT DECREASE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE SFMR... DROPSONDE...AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND MEASUREMENTS UP TO NOW HAVE YIELDED 70 KT FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY...I HAVE TOO MUCH RESPECT FOR THIS ABRUPT FALL IN PRESSURE TO NOT SHOW ANY INCREASE IN STRENGTH. THEREFORE THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR FROM BROWNSVILLE SHOWS A BANDING-TYPE EYE THAT IS TRYING TO CLOSE OFF ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN FEEDER BANDS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. CIRRUS-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIRLY WELL-ESTABLISHED. THERE IS STILL A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR DOLLY TO STRENGTHEN AND THE HURRICANE COULD BE NEAR CATEGORY 2 INTENSITY BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE COAST. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. INITIAL MOTION IS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER 310/7. THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSPHY IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TODAY BUT REMAIN WELL-ESTABLISHED ENOUGH TO STEER THE HURRICANE ON A NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING...WITH A SLIGHT ADDITIONAL DECELERATION. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASICALLY THE SAME AS BEFORE. THIS IS RIGHT ON TOP OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. SHOULD DOLLY MOVE MORE SLOWLY OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS THAN WE ARE FORECASTING...IT IS POSSIBLE FOR IT TO PRODUCE EVEN MORE RAINFALL THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY PREDICTING. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0900Z 25.6N 96.5W 75 KT 12HR VT 23/1800Z 26.0N 97.4W 80 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 24/0600Z 26.3N 98.7W 45 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 24/1800Z 26.4N 100.5W 25 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 23 04:24:06 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6N9O6w3029748 for ; Wed, 23 Jul 2008 04:24:06 -0500 Message-Id: <200807230924.m6N9O6w3029748@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 04:24:06 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 09:24:06 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT34 KNHC 230907 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 12...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 400 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008 ..CORRECTED FOR TIMES OF ISSUANCE OF NEXT ADVISORY... ..DOLLY STRENGTHENS AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CORPUS CHRISTI TO SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM LA PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 400 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.5 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES... 105 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL BE ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER AROUND MIDDAY TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DOLLY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED...AND DOLLY COULD APPROACH CATEGORY TWO INTENSITY WHEN IT REACHES THE COASTLINE LATER TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED THAT THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 976 MB...28.82 INCHES. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 400 AM CDT POSITION...25.6 N...96.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB. INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 600 AM AND 800 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 23 04:53:42 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6N9rgw3030112 for ; Wed, 23 Jul 2008 04:53:42 -0500 Message-Id: <200807230953.m6N9rgw3030112@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 04:53:42 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Hazardous Weather Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 09:53:42 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FLUS42 KTAE 230952 HWOTAE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 552 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2008 ..SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA... ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161- GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-241000- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON- JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN- CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL- IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE- DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- 552 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2008 /452 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA... SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY AND LIKELY ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THESE STORMS. WHILE WIND SHEAR REMAINS WEAK...ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT TO PROVIDE ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. ALL STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. HURRICANE DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TODAY. SWELL FROM DOLLY WILL LESSEN OVER OUR WATERS TODAY...BUT ENOUGH WAVE ENERGY REMAINS TO CREATE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE BEACHES. DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION LATE THURSDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. AS THE BOUNDARY DISSIPATES ON SATURDAY...TYPICAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY...A FEW STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS. THEREFORE...EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND SPOTTER SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. SPOTTERS SHOULD CONSIDER THEMSELVES ACTIVATED AT THE ISSUANCE OF A WATCH OR WARNING IN YOUR AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP. $$ 38-GODSEY This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 23 06:11:02 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6NBB2w3030535 for ; Wed, 23 Jul 2008 06:11:02 -0500 Message-Id: <200807231111.m6NBB2w3030535@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 06:11:02 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 11:11:02 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT34 KNHC 231056 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 600 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008 ..TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE COAST... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CORPUS CHRISTI TO SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM LA PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 600 AM CDT...1100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.6 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES... 90 KM...EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL BE ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER AROUND MIDDAY TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DOLLY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED...AND DOLLY COULD APPROACH CATEGORY TWO INTENSITY WHEN IT REACHES THE COASTLINE LATER TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 972 MB...28.70 INCHES. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 600 AM CDT POSITION...25.8 N...96.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 23 06:56:53 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6NBurw3030790 for ; Wed, 23 Jul 2008 06:56:53 -0500 Message-Id: <200807231156.m6NBurw3030790@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 06:56:53 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 11:56:53 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 231140 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE DOLLY...CENTERED ABOUT 55 MILES EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS...AND HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL...LOCATED ABOUT 380 MILES EAST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA. A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AND IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FUTURE ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 23 07:03:00 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6NC2xw3030832 for ; Wed, 23 Jul 2008 07:03:00 -0500 Message-Id: <200807231203.m6NC2xw3030832@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 07:02:59 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Hazardous Weather Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 12:03:00 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FLUS44 KMOB 231201 HWOMOB HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 655 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008 ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078- 079-241200- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY- COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY- GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- 655 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND THE GULF COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA. DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...PRIMARIY IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. STORMS WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE NUMEROUS OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA WHERE ADDITIONAL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL HELP WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE STRONGER STORMS TODAY WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 45 MPH...IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL. AN INCREASED RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES EARLY TODAY ALONG THE GULF BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA. THESE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL POSE A LIFE THREATENING HAZARD TO THOSE ENTERING THE SURF ZONE. THOSE PLANNING A TRIP TO AREA BEACHES SHOULD HEED THE ADVICE OF THE LOCAL BEACH PATROL AND LOCAL FLAG WARNING SYSTEMS. THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE TODAY. DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. NO ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 23 07:58:00 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6NCw0w3031114 for ; Wed, 23 Jul 2008 07:58:00 -0500 Message-Id: <200807231258.m6NCw0w3031114@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 07:58:00 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 12:58:00 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT34 KNHC 231250 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12B NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 800 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008 ..DOLLY STRENGTHENING AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CORPUS CHRISTI TO SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM LA PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 AM CDT...1300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.9 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES... 60 KM...EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL BE ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER AROUND MIDDAY TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 95 MPH...155 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DOLLY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED...AND DOLLY COULD APPROACH CATEGORY TWO INTENSITY WHEN IT REACHES THE COASTLINE LATER TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. PORT ISABEL ON THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST JUST REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 72 MPH...116 KM/HR AND MATAMOROS MEXICO REPORTED GUSTS TO 55 MPH...89 KM/HR. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 967 MB...28.56 INCHES. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 800 AM CDT POSITION...25.9 N...96.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...95 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 23 09:55:08 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6NEt8w3031776 for ; Wed, 23 Jul 2008 09:55:08 -0500 Message-Id: <200807231455.m6NEt8w3031776@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 09:55:08 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 14:55:09 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 231453 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1053 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2008 ALZ065>069-GAZ129>131-142-143-146>148-155>161-231630- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER- COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS- LOWNDES-LANIER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...TIFTON...FITZGERALD...OCILLA... DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY...COLQUITT...MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS... NASHVILLE...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO...THOMASVILLE... QUITMAN...VALDOSTA...LAKELAND 1053 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2008 /953 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 1230 PM EDT (1130 AM CDT)...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. AREAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...HOWEVER A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE A BRIEF DOWNPOURS IN ADDITION TO SCATTERED LIGHTNING STRIKES ASSOCIATED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. $$ MROCZKA This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 23 09:55:09 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6NEt9w3031779 for ; Wed, 23 Jul 2008 09:55:09 -0500 Message-Id: <200807231455.m6NEt9w3031779@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 09:55:08 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 14:55:09 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 231453 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1053 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2008 FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GMZ730-750-755-765-231630- INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY- CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY- WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY 1053 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2008 /953 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 1230 PM EDT (1130 AM CDT)...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THESE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. AREAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...HOWEVER A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE A BRIEF DOWNPOURS IN ADDITION TO SCATTERED LIGHTNING STRIKES ASSOCIATED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. $$ MROCZKA This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 23 10:00:08 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6NF08w3031825 for ; Wed, 23 Jul 2008 10:00:08 -0500 Message-Id: <200807231500.m6NF08w3031825@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 10:00:08 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 15:00:08 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT34 KNHC 231457 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 1000 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008 ..DOLLY VERY NEAR THE TEXAS COAST WITH 100 MPH WINDS...EYE SHOULD CROSS THE COAST IN A FEW HOURS... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTH OF PORT O'CONNOR HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CORPUS CHRISTI TO PORT O'CONNOR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM LA PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED BY RADAR AND A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 97.0 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES...50 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DOLLY WILL BE CROSSING THE COAST NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER IN A FEW HOURS. PERSONS ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE OUTDOORS DURING THE RELATIVE CALM OF THE EYE BECAUSE WINDS WILL SOON INCREASE QUITE RAPIDLY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DOLLY IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. PORT ISABEL AIRPORT JUST MEASURED 54 MPH...87 KM/HR SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH...113 KM/HR. AN UNOFFICIAL OBSERVER JUST EAST OF MATAMOROS MEXICO REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 MPH...105 KM/HR WITH GUSTS TO 119 MPH...192 KM/HR. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS IS 964 MB...28.47 INCHES. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...26.0 N...97.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB. INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1200 PM CDT AND 200 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 23 10:00:08 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6NF08w3031828 for ; Wed, 23 Jul 2008 10:00:08 -0500 Message-Id: <200807231500.m6NF08w3031828@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 10:00:08 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Forecast/Advisory X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 15:00:08 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT24 KNHC 231457 TCMAT4 HURRICANE DOLLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 1500 UTC WED JUL 23 2008 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTH OF PORT O'CONNOR HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CORPUS CHRISTI TO PORT O'CONNOR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM LA PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 97.0W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 150SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 97.0W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 96.7W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 26.5N 97.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 27.0N 99.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 27.0N 101.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.0N 97.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 23 10:15:28 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6NFFSw3031921 for ; Wed, 23 Jul 2008 10:15:28 -0500 Message-Id: <200807231515.m6NFFSw3031921@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 10:15:27 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 15:15:28 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT44 KNHC 231500 TCDAT4 HURRICANE DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 1100 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2008 DOLLY IS STRENGTHENING. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 964 MB WITH A PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 92 KNOTS. DOPPLER WINDS FROM THE NWS RADAR AT BROWNSVILLE HAVE BEEN OSCILLATING BETWEEN 95 AND 109 KNOTS AROUND 2000 FEET ALTITUDE...AND THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE YESTERDAY. IT HAS NOW A RAGGED EYE ON BOTH VIS AND IR IMAGES. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 85 KNOTS...MAKING DOLLY A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL. RADAR AND AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT DOLLY IS MOVING ON A GENERAL NORTHWEST TRACK OR 305 DEGREES AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS. HOWEVER...DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN A LITTLE...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER TODAY. THIS TRACK SHOULD BRING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE INLAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...A DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. SHOULD DOLLY MOVE MORE SLOWLY OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS THAN WE ARE FORECASTING...IT IS POSSIBLE FOR IT TO PRODUCE EVEN MORE RAINFALL THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY PREDICTING. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/1500Z 26.0N 97.0W 85 KT 12HR VT 24/0000Z 26.5N 97.8W 80 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 24/1200Z 27.0N 99.5W 45 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 25/0000Z 27.0N 101.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 23 10:26:50 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6NFQow3032033 for ; Wed, 23 Jul 2008 10:26:50 -0500 Message-Id: <200807231526.m6NFQow3032033@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 10:26:50 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 15:26:51 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 231524 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 1024 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008 ALZ063-064-FLZ002-004-006-GMZ630-231730- LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA- COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE... FAIRHOPE...FOLEY...SPANISH FORT...PENSACOLA...FERRY PASS... BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY...MYRTLE GROVE... PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH... NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE...EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO 1024 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008 NOW... ..THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF MOBILE...BALDWIN...ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA...AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES... AT 1020 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM GRAND BAY ALABAMA TO 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF FORT WALTON BEACH FLORIDA...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. THESE LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...MOBILE BAY... PENSACOLA METRO...EGLIN AIR FORCE BASE...AND MOST AREA BEACHES THROUGH NOON. SOME OF THE STORMS FROM TIME TO TIME HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING BRIEF WIND GUSTS FROM 20 TO 30 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. BRIEF AND LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED IN A ONE TO TWO HOUR PERIOD. IF CAUGHT ON THE OPEN WATER AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN OR NEAR YOUR AREA...BE PREPARED TO MOVE BELOW DECK AND AWAY FROM UNGROUNDED METAL OBJECTS. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED RAPIDLY IN BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 23 11:39:04 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6NGd4w3032437 for ; Wed, 23 Jul 2008 11:39:04 -0500 Message-Id: <200807231639.m6NGd4w3032437@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 11:39:04 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Special Weather Statement X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 16:39:04 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WWUS84 KMOB 231637 SPSMOB SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 1137 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008 FLZ002-231700- COASTAL ESCAMBIA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PENSACOLA... 1137 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008 ..A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS BEING DETECTED OVER SOUTHERN ESCAMBIA COUNTY... AT 1137 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ENSLEY...MOVING EAST AT 8 MPH. THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND... GONZALEZ...ENSLEY...WEST PENSACOLA...FERRY PASS AND BRENT THROUGH NOON CDT. THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG COULD BRING DOWN DEAD OR DISEASED TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. LOCAL LOSS OF ELECTRICAL POWER MAY RESULT FROM DOWNED POWER LINES. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...OR SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. THIS STORM COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN BRIEF PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 23 11:56:21 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6NGuLw3032539 for ; Wed, 23 Jul 2008 11:56:21 -0500 Message-Id: <200807231656.m6NGuLw3032539@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 11:56:21 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 16:56:22 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 231655 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 1155 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008 ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078- 079-231900- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY- COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY- GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM... MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN... PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE... LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON... ANDALUSIA...OPP...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE... TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY... SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA... FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY... MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW... WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE... EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT... NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE 1155 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008 NOW... ..THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... AT 1155 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE STORMS WILL GENERALLY MOVE TO THE EAST AT AROUND 15 MPH. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS FROM TIME TO TIME HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING BRIEF WIND GUSTS FROM 40 TO 50 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. BRIEF AND LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED IN A ONE TO TWO HOUR PERIOD. IF OUTDOORS TODAY AND YOU HEAR THUNDER...BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO A PLACE OF SHELTER QUICKLY. IF DRIVING...BE PREPARED TO SLOW YOUR DRIVING SPEEDS IF YOU ENCOUNTER VISIBILITY REDUCING HEAVY RAIN. ROADWAYS WILL HAVE PONDING WATER WHICH CAN INCREASE THE POTENTIAL OF HYDROPLANING. IF CAUGHT ON THE OPEN WATER AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN OR NEAR YOUR AREA...BE PREPARED TO MOVE BELOW DECK AND AWAY FROM UNGROUNDED METAL OBJECTS. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED RAPIDLY IN BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 23 12:02:21 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6NH2Lw3032597 for ; Wed, 23 Jul 2008 12:02:21 -0500 Message-Id: <200807231702.m6NH2Lw3032597@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 12:02:21 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 17:02:22 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT34 KNHC 231658 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 1200 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008 ..DOLLY HESITATES...EYEWALL OF DOLLY CROSSING SOUTH PADRE ISLAND... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CORPUS CHRISTI TO PORT O'CONNOR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM LA PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1200 PM CDT...1700Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.0 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES... 60 KM...NORTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. DOLLY HAS BEEN MEANDERING FOR THE PAST HOUR OR SO BUT IT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR SOON. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DOLLY WILL BE CROSSING THE COAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. PERSONS ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE OUTDOORS DURING THE RELATIVE CALM OF THE EYE BECAUSE WINDS WILL SOON INCREASE QUITE RAPIDLY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DOLLY IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. PORT ISABEL AIRPORT JUST MEASURED 58 MPH...92 KM/HR SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH...113 KM/HR. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS IS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 1200 PM CDT POSITION...26.2 N...97.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 23 13:03:30 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6NI3Uw3000521 for ; Wed, 23 Jul 2008 13:03:30 -0500 Message-Id: <200807231803.m6NI3Uw3000521@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 13:03:30 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 18:03:31 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 231756 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE DOLLY...CENTERED ABOUT 35 MILES EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...A FEW HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AND IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 23 13:18:11 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6NIIBw3000604 for ; Wed, 23 Jul 2008 13:18:11 -0500 Message-Id: <200807231818.m6NIIBw3000604@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 13:18:11 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 18:18:12 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 231816 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 216 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161- GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-232030- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON- JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN- CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL- IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE- DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES... CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY... DAWSON...ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTER...ASHBURN... TIFTON...FITZGERALD...OCILLA...DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY... COLQUITT...NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM...MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS... NASHVILLE...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO...THOMASVILLE... QUITMAN...VALDOSTA...LAKELAND 216 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008 /116 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 430 PM EDT (330 PM CDT)...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRAVEL SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG AND INCLUDE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. BOATERS MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE LOCALLY CHOPPY WATERS. RAINFALL TOTALS MAY REACH HALF AN INCH IN SOME AREAS...AND STORMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT TWO HOURS. $$ RUBIO This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 23 13:52:28 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6NIqSw3000791 for ; Wed, 23 Jul 2008 13:52:28 -0500 Message-Id: <200807231852.m6NIqSw3000791@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 13:52:28 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Special Weather Statement X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 18:52:28 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WWUS84 KMOB 231850 SPSMOB SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 150 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008 ALZ060-231915- COVINGTON- 150 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008 ..A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS BEING DETECTED OVER SOUTHEASTERN COVINGTON COUNTY... AT 150 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF RED OAK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 13 MPH. THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND... WATKINS BRIDGE...STEDMAN AND GREEN BAY THROUGH 215 PM CDT. THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG COULD BRING DOWN DEAD OR DISEASED TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. LOCAL LOSS OF ELECTRICAL POWER MAY RESULT FROM DOWNED POWER LINES. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...OR SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. THIS STORM COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN BRIEF PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING. $$ PURDY This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 23 14:04:39 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6NJ4dw3000869 for ; Wed, 23 Jul 2008 14:04:39 -0500 Message-Id: <200807231904.m6NJ4dw3000869@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 14:04:39 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 19:04:39 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT34 KNHC 231857 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13B NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 200 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008 ..DOLLY MADE LANDFALL IN SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...EXPECTED TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS LATER TODAY... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CORPUS CHRISTI TO PORT O'CONNOR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM LA PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 PM CDT...1900Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.3 WEST. THIS POSITION IS OVER LAGUNA MADRE ABOUT 35 MILES...60 KM... NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND 30 MILES...51 KM...EAST SOUTHEAST OF RAYMONDVILLE. DOLLY IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DOLLY WILL BE MOVING INLAND OVER FAR SOUTH TEXAS LATER TODAY. PERSONS ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE OUTDOORS DURING THE RELATIVE CALM OF THE EYE BECAUSE WINDS WILL SOON INCREASE QUITE RAPIDLY. BECAUSE A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION OF DOLLY HAS BEEN INTERACTING WITH LAND...THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 95 MPH... 150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DOLLY IS NOW A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN SOON AS THE EYE MOVES FARTHER INLAND. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. HARLINGEN TEXAS MEASURED 54 MPH...87 KM/HR SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 74 MPH...119 KM/HR. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AT LANDFALL WAS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BROWNSVILLE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR HAS ESTIMATED UP TO A FOOT OF RAIN SO FAR OVER PORTIONS OF COASTAL FAR SOUTH TEXAS. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 200 PM CDT POSITION....26.4 N...97.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...95 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 23 14:22:10 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6NJMAw3000973 for ; Wed, 23 Jul 2008 14:22:10 -0500 Message-Id: <200807231922.m6NJMAw3000973@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 14:22:10 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 19:22:11 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 231921 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 220 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008 ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078- 079-232200- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY- COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY- GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM... MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN... PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE... LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON... ANDALUSIA...OPP...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE... TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY... SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA... FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY... MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW... WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE... EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT... NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE 220 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008 NOW... ..NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... AT 220 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE STORMS WILL GENERALLY MOVE TO THE EAST AT AROUND 15 MPH. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS FROM TIME TO TIME HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING BRIEF WIND GUSTS FROM 35 TO 45 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. BRIEF AND LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED. IF OUTDOORS TODAY AND YOU HEAR THUNDER...BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO A PLACE OF SHELTER QUICKLY. IF DRIVING...BE PREPARED TO SLOW YOUR DRIVING SPEEDS IF YOU ENCOUNTER VISIBILITY REDUCING HEAVY RAIN. ROADWAYS WILL HAVE PONDING WATER WHICH CAN INCREASE THE POTENTIAL OF HYDROPLANING. IF CAUGHT ON THE OPEN WATER AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN OR NEAR YOUR AREA...BE PREPARED TO MOVE BELOW DECK AND AWAY FROM UNGROUNDED METAL OBJECTS. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED RAPIDLY IN BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 23 14:24:13 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6NJODw3000992 for ; Wed, 23 Jul 2008 14:24:13 -0500 Message-Id: <200807231924.m6NJODw3000992@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 14:24:13 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 19:24:14 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 231922 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 322 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161- GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-232130- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON- JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN- CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL- IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE- DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES... CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY... DAWSON...ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTER...ASHBURN... TIFTON...FITZGERALD...OCILLA...DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY... COLQUITT...NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM...MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS... NASHVILLE...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO...THOMASVILLE... QUITMAN...VALDOSTA...LAKELAND 322 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008 /222 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 530 PM EDT (430 PM CDT)...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRAVEL SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY CONTAIN FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH...AND BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. RAINFALL MAY ACCUMULATE UP TO A HALF INCH IN SOME AREAS...AND BOATERS MAY ENCOUNTER LOCALLY CHOPPY WATERS. STORMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT TWO HOURS...ESPECIALLY AS EXISTING CELLS AND THEIR GUST FRONTS COLLIDE TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL STORMS. $$ RUBIO This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 23 14:31:38 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6NJVcw3001035 for ; Wed, 23 Jul 2008 14:31:38 -0500 Message-Id: <200807231931.m6NJVcw3001035@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 14:31:38 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Special Weather Statement X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 19:31:38 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WWUS84 KMOB 231930 SPSMOB SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 230 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008 ALZ055-056-059-232015- ESCAMBIA-CONECUH-MONROE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BREWTON... 230 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008 ..STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ESCAMBIA...CONECUH AND MONROE COUNTIES IN ALABAMA... AT 230 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM I65 AND AL 41 TO 3 MILES WEST OF MANISTEE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH. THESE LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND... I65 AND AL 41...APPLETON...MEGARGEL...WALLACE AND GOODWAY THROUGH 300 PM CDT. THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG COULD BRING DOWN DEAD OR DISEASED TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. LOCAL LOSS OF ELECTRICAL POWER MAY RESULT FROM DOWNED POWER LINES. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...OR SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED. THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN BRIEF PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING. $$ PURDY WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 23 14:35:12 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6NJZCw3001061 for ; Wed, 23 Jul 2008 14:35:12 -0500 Message-Id: <200807231935.m6NJZCw3001061@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 14:35:12 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 19:35:13 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT34 KNHC 231930 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13B...RETRANSMITTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 200 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008 ..DOLLY MADE LANDFALL IN SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...EXPECTED TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS LATER TODAY... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CORPUS CHRISTI TO PORT O'CONNOR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM LA PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 PM CDT...1900Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.3 WEST. THIS POSITION IS OVER LAGUNA MADRE ABOUT 35 MILES...60 KM... NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND 30 MILES...51 KM...EAST SOUTHEAST OF RAYMONDVILLE. DOLLY IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DOLLY WILL BE MOVING INLAND OVER FAR SOUTH TEXAS LATER TODAY. PERSONS ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE OUTDOORS DURING THE RELATIVE CALM OF THE EYE BECAUSE WINDS WILL SOON INCREASE QUITE RAPIDLY. BECAUSE A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION OF DOLLY HAS BEEN INTERACTING WITH LAND...THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 95 MPH... 150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DOLLY IS NOW A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN SOON AS THE EYE MOVES FARTHER INLAND. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. HARLINGEN TEXAS MEASURED 54 MPH...87 KM/HR SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 74 MPH...119 KM/HR. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AT LANDFALL WAS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BROWNSVILLE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR HAS ESTIMATED UP TO A FOOT OF RAIN SO FAR OVER PORTIONS OF COASTAL FAR SOUTH TEXAS. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 200 PM CDT POSITION...26.4 N...97.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...95 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 23 15:43:52 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6NKhqw3001455 for ; Wed, 23 Jul 2008 15:43:52 -0500 Message-Id: <200807232043.m6NKhqw3001455@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 15:43:52 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Special Weather Statement X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 20:43:52 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WWUS84 KMOB 232042 SPSMOB SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 341 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008 ALZ057-058-232115- BUTLER-CRENSHAW- 341 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008 ..STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING DETECTED OVER BUTLER AND CRENSHAW COUNTIES... AT 341 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR HERBERT TO NEAR PIGEON CREEK...MOVING SOUTH AT 8 MPH. THESE LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND... BOLLING...CHAPMAN AND OAKY STREAK THROUGH 415 PM CDT. THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG COULD BRING DOWN DEAD OR DISEASED TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. LOCAL LOSS OF ELECTRICAL POWER MAY RESULT FROM DOWNED POWER LINES. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...OR SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED. THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN BRIEF PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING. $$ PURDY This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 23 15:51:42 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6NKpgw3001526 for ; Wed, 23 Jul 2008 15:51:42 -0500 Message-Id: <200807232051.m6NKpgw3001526@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 15:51:42 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 20:51:42 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT34 KNHC 232043 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 400 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008 ..DOLLY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BROWNSVILLE TO JUST SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED. AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM BAFFIN BAY NORTHWARD TO CORPUS CHRISTI HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT O'CONNOR. AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH FROM LA PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.6 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES... 80 KM...NORTH OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS WILL BRING DOLLY FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHER TEXAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DOLLY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING UP TO 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW BUT WILL SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...26.6 N...97.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 23 15:51:42 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6NKpgw3001529 for ; Wed, 23 Jul 2008 15:51:42 -0500 Message-Id: <200807232051.m6NKpgw3001529@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 15:51:42 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Forecast/Advisory X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 20:51:43 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT24 KNHC 232042 TCMAT4 HURRICANE DOLLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 2100 UTC WED JUL 23 2008 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BROWNSVILLE TO JUST SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED. AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM BAFFIN BAY NORTHWARD TO CORPUS CHRISTI HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT O'CONNOR. AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH FROM LA PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 97.6W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 45SW 45NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 97.6W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 97.3W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 27.0N 98.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 25SW 25NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 27.5N 99.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 28.0N 102.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.6N 97.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 23 15:51:42 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6NKpgw3001532 for ; Wed, 23 Jul 2008 15:51:42 -0500 Message-Id: <200807232051.m6NKpgw3001532@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 15:51:42 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 20:51:43 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT44 KNHC 232045 TCDAT4 HURRICANE DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 500 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008 THE EYE OF DOLLY MADE LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN PADRE ISLAND EARLIER TODAY AS A BORDERLINE CATEGORY ONE TO CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE AT LANDFALL REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 967 MB AND WINDS WERE ESTIMATED BETWEEN 80 AND 85 KNOTS. THE EYE IS NOW PARTIALLY INLAND OVER FAR SOUTH TEXAS AND BECAUSE THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY INTERACTING WITH LAND...A GRADUAL WEAKENING HAS BEGUN. INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED A 75 KNOTS AND A CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS DOLLY MOVES FARTHER INLAND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY THE INLAND DECAY SHIPS MODEL. DOLLY BEGAN TO MOVE ON A MORE STEADY NORTHWEST TRACK AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE IS NOW LOCATED SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...THEREFORE...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST IS ANTICIPATED UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. DOLLY IS A LARGE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM AND CAN CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/2100Z 26.6N 97.6W 75 KT 12HR VT 24/0600Z 27.0N 98.5W 45 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 24/1800Z 27.5N 99.5W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 25/0600Z 28.0N 102.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 23 15:56:56 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6NKuuw3001579 for ; Wed, 23 Jul 2008 15:56:56 -0500 Message-Id: <200807232056.m6NKuuw3001579@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 15:56:56 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 20:56:57 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 232055 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 455 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161- GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-232300- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON- JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN- CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL- IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE- DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES... CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY... DAWSON...ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTER...ASHBURN... TIFTON...FITZGERALD...OCILLA...DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY... COLQUITT...NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM...MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS... NASHVILLE...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO...THOMASVILLE... QUITMAN...VALDOSTA...LAKELAND 455 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008 /355 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 7 PM EDT (6 PM CDT)...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRAVEL SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH THROUGHOUT SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH...BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SMALL HAIL. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS MAY REACH HALF AN INCH IN SOME AREAS. BOATERS MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE LOCALLY CHOPPY WATERS. STORMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT TWO HOURS...ESPECIALLY AS EXISTING CELLS AND THEIR GUST FRONTS COLLIDE TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL STORMS. $$ RUBIO This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 23 16:50:14 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6NLoEw3001924 for ; Wed, 23 Jul 2008 16:50:14 -0500 Message-Id: <200807232150.m6NLoEw3001924@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 16:50:14 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Local Storm Report X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 21:50:14 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) NWUS52 KTAE 232103 LSRTAE PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 502 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0420 PM TSTM WND DMG 10 NNE BAINBRIDGE 31.04N 84.51W 07/23/2008 DECATUR GA EMERGENCY MNGR SEVERAL TREES AND POWER LINES KNOCKED DOWN IN NORTHEAST DECATUR COUNTY. && $$ GIBBS This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 23 17:09:19 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6NM9Jw3002037 for ; Wed, 23 Jul 2008 17:09:19 -0500 Message-Id: <200807232209.m6NM9Jw3002037@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 17:09:19 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 22:09:19 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 232207 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 507 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008 ALZ051>058-060-MSZ067-240100- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- COVINGTON-WAYNE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM... MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN... PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE... LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ANDALUSIA...OPP...WAYNESBORO 507 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008 NOW... A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND MOVE SOUTH OVER THE ALABAMA COUNTIES STRETCHING FROM CHOCTAW TO CRENSHAW THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THROUGH 8 PM...THESE SHOWERS WILL WILL BRING VERY HEAVY RAINS OF UP TO SEVERAL INCHES AT TIMES...WITH A FEW LOCALITIES SEEING SEVERAL SHOWERS PASSING OVER AS THE SHOWERS MOVE SOUTH AT 15 MPH. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND LOW LYING AREAS IS POSSIBLE OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH THE EVENING. DRIVERS ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN...AVOIDING AREAS WHERE THE WATER DEPTH IS UNKNOWN. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 23 17:09:19 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6NM9Jw3002040 for ; Wed, 23 Jul 2008 17:09:19 -0500 Message-Id: <200807232209.m6NM9Jw3002040@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 17:09:19 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 22:09:19 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 232207 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 507 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008 ALZ059-061>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-MSZ075-076-078-079-240100- ESCAMBIA-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN- INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY- PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON... PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE...TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE... DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY...SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON... MOLINO...PENSACOLA...FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA... BELLVIEW...ENSLEY...MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON... GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW...WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH... NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE...EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO... RICHTON...BEAUMONT...NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN... WIGGINS...LUCEDALE 507 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008 NOW... A BROAD AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THROUGH 8 PM...THESE SHOWERS WILL BRING UP TO HALF AN INCH OF RAIN TO LOCALITIES WHERE THEY CROSS AS THEY MOVE SOUTH AT 15 MPH. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 23 17:10:24 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6NMAOw3002061 for ; Wed, 23 Jul 2008 17:10:24 -0500 Message-Id: <200807232210.m6NMAOw3002061@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 17:10:24 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 22:10:24 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 232208 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 608 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161- GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-240000- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON- JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN- CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL- IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE- DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES... CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY... DAWSON...ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTER...ASHBURN... TIFTON...FITZGERALD...OCILLA...DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY... COLQUITT...NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM...MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS... NASHVILLE...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO...THOMASVILLE... QUITMAN...VALDOSTA...LAKELAND 608 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008 /508 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 8 PM EDT (7 PM CDT)...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVEL SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH...AND BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF SOME STORMS...MINOR LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. BOATERS MAY ALSO ENCOUNTER LOCALLY CHOPPY WATERS IN AND AROUND THE STORMS...BUT ALL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY DECREASE BEFORE 8 PM EDT (7 PM CDT). $$ RUBIO This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 23 18:39:53 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6NNdrw3002707 for ; Wed, 23 Jul 2008 18:39:53 -0500 Message-Id: <200807232339.m6NNdrw3002707@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 18:39:53 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 23:39:54 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT34 KNHC 232336 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 700 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008 ..HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS CONTINUE OVER SOUTH TEXAS... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BROWNSVILLE TO JUST SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT O'CONNOR. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 700 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED INLAND OVER EXTREME SOUTH TEXAS NEAR LATITUDE 26.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.0 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES...95 KM...NORTHWEST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...16 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...TAKING DOLLY FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTH TEXAS. A TURN TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED BY LATE TOMORROW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DOLLY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING UP TO 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW BUT WILL SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 700 PM CDT POSITION...26.6 N...98.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 23 18:55:13 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6NNtDw3002864 for ; Wed, 23 Jul 2008 18:55:13 -0500 Message-Id: <200807232355.m6NNtDw3002864@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 18:55:13 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 23:55:13 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 232344 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE DOLLY...CENTERED INLAND ABOUT 60 MILES NORTHWEST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. A LARGE WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 23 19:08:43 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6O08hw3002960 for ; Wed, 23 Jul 2008 19:08:43 -0500 Message-Id: <200807240008.m6O08hw3002960@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 19:08:43 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 24 Jul 2008 00:08:43 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 232351 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 751 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161- GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-240200- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON- JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN- CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL- IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE- DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES... CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY... DAWSON...ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTER...ASHBURN... TIFTON...FITZGERALD...OCILLA...DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY... COLQUITT...NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM...MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS... NASHVILLE...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO...THOMASVILLE... QUITMAN...VALDOSTA...LAKELAND 751 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008 /651 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 1000 PM EDT (900 PM CDT)...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF THE RAIN IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 23 19:40:26 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6O0eQw3003165 for ; Wed, 23 Jul 2008 19:40:26 -0500 Message-Id: <200807240040.m6O0eQw3003165@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 19:40:25 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 24 Jul 2008 00:40:26 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 240039 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 739 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008 ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-240300- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY- GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM... MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN... PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE... LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON... ANDALUSIA...OPP...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE... TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY... SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA... FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY... MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW... WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE... EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT... NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE 739 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008 NOW... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AT 15 MPH ACROSS OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THROUGH 10 PM...THESE SHOWERS WILL BRING UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN...WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS BRINGING FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 23 19:58:24 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6O0wOw3003260 for ; Wed, 23 Jul 2008 19:58:24 -0500 Message-Id: <200807240058.m6O0wOw3003260@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 19:58:24 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 24 Jul 2008 00:58:24 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 240057 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 857 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775- 240300- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON- JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY 857 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008 /757 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 11 PM EDT (10 PM CDT)...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THE OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVEL SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS...WHERE LOCALLY CHOPPY WATERS MAY OCCUR IN AND AROUND THE STORMS. INLAND...SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL BUT WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT TWO HOURS. $$ RUBIO This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 23 20:53:38 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6O1rcw3003477 for ; Wed, 23 Jul 2008 20:53:38 -0500 Message-Id: <200807240153.m6O1rcw3003477@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 20:53:38 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 24 Jul 2008 01:53:38 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 240152 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 952 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775- 240400- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON- JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER... DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON... SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB... COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON... BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA... GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY... PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO... MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY 952 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008 /852 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 12 AM EDT (11 PM CDT)...ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT TWO HOURS. $$ RUBIO This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 23 21:39:21 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6O2dLw3003709 for ; Wed, 23 Jul 2008 21:39:21 -0500 Message-Id: <200807240239.m6O2dLw3003709@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 21:39:21 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Hazardous Weather Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 24 Jul 2008 02:39:21 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FLUS44 KMOB 240209 HWOMOB HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 910 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008 ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078- 079-241200- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY- COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY- GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- 910 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND THE GULF COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA. DAY ONE...REST OF TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS THE REGION AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH TO THE COAST. NO STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS AROUND 45 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. NO ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 23 21:43:12 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6O2hCw3003741 for ; Wed, 23 Jul 2008 21:43:12 -0500 Message-Id: <200807240243.m6O2hCw3003741@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 21:43:12 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 24 Jul 2008 02:43:13 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT34 KNHC 240235 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 1000 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008 ..DOLLY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM BUT HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE... AT 10 PM CDT...0300 UTC...ALL HURRICANE WARNINGS ALONG THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND MEXICO HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. AT 10 PM CDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM BROWNSVILLE TO PORT ARANSAS TEXAS. COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ELSEWHERE ARE DISCONTINUED. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.1 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES... 90 KM...NORTHWEST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A TURN BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES ON FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES FURTHER INLAND...AND DOLLY COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY LATE TOMORROW. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...CAUSING WIDESPREAD FLOODING IN THESE AREAS. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...26.5 N...98.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 100 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 23 21:43:13 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6O2hDw3003744 for ; Wed, 23 Jul 2008 21:43:13 -0500 Message-Id: <200807240243.m6O2hDw3003744@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 21:43:13 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Forecast/Advisory X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 24 Jul 2008 02:43:13 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT24 KNHC 240236 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DOLLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 0300 UTC THU JUL 24 2008 AT 10 PM CDT...0300 UTC...ALL HURRICANE WARNINGS ALONG THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND MEXICO HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. AT 10 PM CDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM BROWNSVILLE TO PORT ARANSAS TEXAS. COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ELSEWHERE ARE DISCONTINUED. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 98.1W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 45SW 45NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 98.1W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 97.8W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 26.8N 99.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 27.6N 100.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 28.2N 103.2W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.5N 98.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 23 21:43:13 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6O2hDw3003747 for ; Wed, 23 Jul 2008 21:43:13 -0500 Message-Id: <200807240243.m6O2hDw3003747@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 21:43:13 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 24 Jul 2008 02:43:13 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT44 KNHC 240236 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 1100 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008 THE EYE REMAINS VERY WELL DEFINED IN THE BROWNSVILLE RADAR ALTHOUGH IT IS BECOMING LESS DISTINCT IN INFRARED IMAGERY. THE RADAR IS SHOWING SOME INBOUND VELOCITIES OF UP TO 78 KT OR SO AT ABOUT 2900 FT. THIS WOULD NORMALLY CORRESPOND TO MINIMAL HURRICANE FORCE AT THE SURFACE OVER WATER...BUT NOT OVER LAND...AND DOLLY IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM ON THIS BASIS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST IN ACCORD WITH THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL...WITH DOLLY EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN 36-48 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/6. THE LARGE SCALE MODELS SHOW THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SLIDING EASTWARD A LITTLE BIT...TURNING DOLLY BACK TO A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY HEADING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. EVEN AS THE WINDS SUBSIDE...DOLLY CONTINUES TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINS AND THE ASSOCIATED SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THREATS WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0300Z 26.5N 98.1W 60 KT 12HR VT 24/1200Z 26.8N 99.0W 40 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 25/0000Z 27.6N 100.8W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 25/1200Z 28.2N 103.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Wed Jul 23 23:29:15 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6O4TEw3004316 for ; Wed, 23 Jul 2008 23:29:15 -0500 Message-Id: <200807240429.m6O4TEw3004316@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 23:29:15 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Local Storm Report X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 24 Jul 2008 04:29:15 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) NWUS52 KTAE 240428 LSRTAE PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1228 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2008 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 1200 PM RIP CURRENTS PANAMA CITY BEACH 30.17N 85.79W 07/23/2008 BAY FL BROADCAST MEDIA 56 YEAR OLD MAN DROWNED AT PANAMA CITY BEACH. && $$ CAMP This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 24 01:01:43 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6O61hw3004723 for ; Thu, 24 Jul 2008 01:01:43 -0500 Message-Id: <200807240601.m6O61hw3004723@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 24 Jul 2008 01:01:43 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 24 Jul 2008 06:01:44 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT34 KNHC 240559 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 100 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2008 ..SLOW-MOVING DOLLY DUMPING TORRENTIAL RAINS ON SOUTH TEXAS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM BROWNSVILLE TO PORT ARANSAS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 100 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.3 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES... 120 KM...NORTHWEST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A CONTINUED MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES ON FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND...AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...CAUSING WIDESPREAD FLOODING IN THESE AREAS. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL SUBSIDE THIS MORNING. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. REPEATING THE 100 AM CDT POSITION...26.7 N...98.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER KNABB This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 24 01:01:44 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6O61iw3004726 for ; Thu, 24 Jul 2008 01:01:44 -0500 Message-Id: <200807240601.m6O61iw3004726@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 24 Jul 2008 01:01:44 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 24 Jul 2008 06:01:44 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 240600 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM DOLLY...CENTERED INLAND ABOUT 75 MILES NORTHWEST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE...IS LOCATED OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 600 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER KNABB WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 24 03:32:26 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6O8WQw3005513 for ; Thu, 24 Jul 2008 03:32:26 -0500 Message-Id: <200807240832.m6O8WQw3005513@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 24 Jul 2008 03:32:27 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Hazardous Weather Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 24 Jul 2008 08:32:27 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FLUS42 KTAE 240830 HWOTAE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 430 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2008 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161- GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-251000- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON- JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN- CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL- IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE- DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- 430 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2008 /330 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2008/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA... SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT... DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY. WITH THIS DRIER AIR IN PLACE BY AFTERNOON...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NOTICEABLY LESS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY...SOME STORMS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING BEING THE MAIN THREAT. LINGERING SWELL CREATED BY HURRICANE DOLLY WILL CONTINUE AFFECTING THE GULF WATERS OFF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS SWELL WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF STRONGER AND MORE FREQUENT RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE BEACHES. THUS...THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY FOR THESE BEACHES. DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A MOIST FLOW WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY WITH A RETURN TO TYPICAL AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP. $$ 38-GODSEY This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 24 03:49:42 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6O8ngw3005606 for ; Thu, 24 Jul 2008 03:49:42 -0500 Message-Id: <200807240849.m6O8ngw3005606@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 24 Jul 2008 03:49:42 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 24 Jul 2008 08:49:42 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT34 KNHC 240843 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 400 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2008 ..HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE TEXAS COAST FROM BROWNSVILLE TO PORT ARANSAS. THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 400 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.6 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES...155 KM...NORTHWEST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A CONTINUED MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES ON FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS ARE VERY LIKELY TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING. REPEATING THE 400 AM CDT POSITION...26.9 N...98.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 700 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER KNABB WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 24 03:49:42 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6O8ngw3005609 for ; Thu, 24 Jul 2008 03:49:42 -0500 Message-Id: <200807240849.m6O8ngw3005609@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 24 Jul 2008 03:49:42 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Forecast/Advisory X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 24 Jul 2008 08:49:42 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT24 KNHC 240842 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DOLLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 0900 UTC THU JUL 24 2008 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE TEXAS COAST FROM BROWNSVILLE TO PORT ARANSAS. THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 98.6W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 98.6W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 98.3W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 27.3N 99.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 27.9N 101.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 28.4N 104.1W...REMNANT LOW INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.9N 98.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z $$ FORECASTER KNABB WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 24 03:49:42 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6O8ngw3005612 for ; Thu, 24 Jul 2008 03:49:42 -0500 Message-Id: <200807240849.m6O8ngw3005612@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 24 Jul 2008 03:49:42 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 24 Jul 2008 08:49:42 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT44 KNHC 240846 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 500 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2008 THE CENTER OF DOLLY IS SLOWLY WOBBLING ALONG...WELL INLAND OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...AT ABOUT 295/6. THE EYE IS ALMOST GONE FROM RADAR IMAGERY...BUT THE SURROUNDING RAIN SHIELD IS STILL QUITE SOLID...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE WHERE IT EXTENDS ALL THE WAY DOWN ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND EASTWARD BACK TO THE COAST. IN ADDITION...A FEW POTENT OUTER RAIN BANDS PERSIST NEAR AND JUST OFF THE COAST. WSR-88D VELOCITIES ADJUSTED FOR ALTITUDE SUGGEST SURFACE WINDS AS STRONG AS ABOUT 50 KT ALONG THE COASTLINE DUE EAST OF THE CENTER...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 50 KT...AND THE COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS DOLLY PROCEEDS INLAND TODAY...WINDS WILL DIMINISH ALONG THE COAST...AND THE COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING. THE CURRENT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...AS DOLLY IS STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THIS MOTION WILL TAKE THE CYCLONE FARTHER INLAND AND OVER INCREASINGLY RUGGED TERRAIN...SO DOLLY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION WITHIN 24 HOURS...AND THE CIRCULATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST FOR MORE THAN 36-48 HOURS. DESPITE THE FORECAST WEAKENING...DOLLY WILL CONTINUE TO DUMP VERY HEAVY RAINS FOR MANY MORE HOURS...SO A SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR INLAND FLOODING CONTINUES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0900Z 26.9N 98.6W 50 KT 12HR VT 24/1800Z 27.3N 99.8W 35 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 25/0600Z 27.9N 101.9W 25 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 25/1800Z 28.4N 104.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KNABB WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 24 05:39:40 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6OAdew3006771 for ; Thu, 24 Jul 2008 05:39:40 -0500 Message-Id: <200807241039.m6OAdew3006771@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 24 Jul 2008 05:39:40 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 24 Jul 2008 10:39:41 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 241038 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 538 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2008 ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-241245- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY- GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM... MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN... PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE... LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON... ANDALUSIA...OPP...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE... TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY... SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA... FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY... MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW... WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE... EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT... NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE 538 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2008 NOW... A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE COAST OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA...MOVING EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...MOSTLY SCATTERED IN COVERAGE...CAN BE EXPECTED MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR THROUGH 9 AM. OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH AND BRIEF PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 900 AM. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 24 06:30:34 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6OBUYw3007044 for ; Thu, 24 Jul 2008 06:30:34 -0500 Message-Id: <200807241130.m6OBUYw3007044@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 24 Jul 2008 06:30:34 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 24 Jul 2008 11:30:34 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 241123 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 723 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2008 FLZ008-012-014-015-027-028-034-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-241300- COASTAL WALTON-BAY-GULF-FRANKLIN-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-DIXIE- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...INWOOD...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...WHITE CITY...PORT ST. JOE... WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...CROSS CITY 723 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2008 /623 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 8 AM CDT (9 AM EDT)...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. THE STORMS WILL DRIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS. COASTAL AREAS AROUND CAPE SAN BLAS WILL ALSO GET STORMS. THE STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS. $$ 18-WOOL This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 24 06:38:38 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6OBccw3007103 for ; Thu, 24 Jul 2008 06:38:38 -0500 Message-Id: <200807241138.m6OBccw3007103@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 24 Jul 2008 06:38:38 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Hazardous Weather Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 24 Jul 2008 11:38:39 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FLUS44 KMOB 241137 HWOMOB HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 625 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2008 ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078- 079-251200- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY- COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY- GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- 625 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2008 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND THE GULF COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA. DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG...MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. WIND GUSTS FROM 40 TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH MOST OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 24 06:52:56 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6OBquw3007187 for ; Thu, 24 Jul 2008 06:52:56 -0500 Message-Id: <200807241152.m6OBquw3007187@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 24 Jul 2008 06:52:56 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 24 Jul 2008 11:52:56 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT34 KNHC 241139 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 700 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2008 ..DOLLY PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE TEXAS COAST FROM BROWNSVILLE TO PORT ARANSAS. THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 700 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS LOCATED INLAND TEXAS NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.9 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES...80 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LAREDO. DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A CONTINUED MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES ON FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...80 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS ARE VERY LIKELY TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING. REPEATING THE 700 AM CDT POSITION...27.2 N...98.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 24 06:52:56 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6OBquw3007190 for ; Thu, 24 Jul 2008 06:52:56 -0500 Message-Id: <200807241152.m6OBquw3007190@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 24 Jul 2008 06:52:56 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 24 Jul 2008 11:52:57 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) ABNT20 KNHC 241145 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM DOLLY...CENTERED INLAND TEXAS ABOUT 50 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LAREDO. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE...IS LOCATED OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 650 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER AVILA WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 24 07:34:45 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6OCYjw3007426 for ; Thu, 24 Jul 2008 07:34:45 -0500 Message-Id: <200807241234.m6OCYjw3007426@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 24 Jul 2008 07:34:45 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 24 Jul 2008 12:34:45 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 241233 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 730 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2008 ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-241445- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY- GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM... MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN... PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE... LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON... ANDALUSIA...OPP...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE... TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY... SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA... FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY... MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW... WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE... EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT... NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE 730 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2008 NOW... A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER COASTAL AREAS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...MOSTLY ISOLATED IN COVERAGE...CAN BE EXPECTED MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR THROUGH 9 AM. OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH AND BRIEF PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 900 AM. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 24 08:13:25 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6ODDPw3007640 for ; Thu, 24 Jul 2008 08:13:25 -0500 Message-Id: <200807241313.m6ODDPw3007640@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 24 Jul 2008 08:13:26 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 24 Jul 2008 13:13:26 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS72 KTAE 241311 NOWTAE SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 911 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2008 FLZ008-012-014-015-027-028-034-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-241500- COASTAL WALTON-BAY-GULF-FRANKLIN-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-DIXIE- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...INWOOD...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY... LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...WHITE CITY...PORT ST. JOE... WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS... PERRY...CROSS CITY 911 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2008 /811 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2008/ NOW... THROUGH 10 AM CDT (11 AM EDT)...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS ACROSS ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. COASTAL AREAS AROUND CAPE SAN BLAS WILL ALSO GET STORMS. THE STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS. $$ 18-WOOL This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 24 09:18:44 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6OEIiw3007991 for ; Thu, 24 Jul 2008 09:18:44 -0500 Message-Id: <200807241418.m6OEIiw3007991@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 24 Jul 2008 09:18:44 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Short Term Forecast X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 24 Jul 2008 14:18:44 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) FPUS74 KMOB 241415 NOWMOB SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 915 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2008 ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-241815- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY- GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM... MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN... PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE... LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON... ANDALUSIA...OPP...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE... TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY... SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA... FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY... MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW... WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE... EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT... NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE 915 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2008 NOW...THROUGH NOON...SKIES REMAINING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH MARINE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATING. THE FOCUS FOR STORMS...WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...WILL BECOME FOCUSED OVER COASTAL SECTIONS ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR BETWEEN MOBILE AND DESTIN. STORMS COULD DUMP A QUICK TWO INCHES IN AN HOUR AS THEY AVERAGE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD LESS THAN 10 MPH AFTER INITIAL DEVELOPMENT. INLAND THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 35 MPH. LIGHTING IS THE MAIN THREAT THROUGH NOON! $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 24 09:40:58 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6OEeww3008123 for ; Thu, 24 Jul 2008 09:40:58 -0500 Message-Id: <200807241440.m6OEeww3008123@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 24 Jul 2008 09:40:58 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Forecast/Advisory X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 24 Jul 2008 14:40:58 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT24 KNHC 241439 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DOLLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 1500 UTC THU JUL 24 2008 AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM BROWNSVILLE TO PORT ARANSAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 99.3W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 99.3W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 98.9W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 28.0N 100.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 28.5N 103.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.5N 99.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 24 09:56:17 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6OEuHw3008266 for ; Thu, 24 Jul 2008 09:56:17 -0500 Message-Id: <200807241456.m6OEuHw3008266@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 24 Jul 2008 09:56:17 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 24 Jul 2008 14:56:17 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT34 KNHC 241440 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 1000 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2008 ..DOLLY DUMPING HEAVY RAINS AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND... AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM BROWNSVILLE TO PORT ARANSAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.3 WEST...VERY NEAR LAREDO TEXAS. DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION IN A DAY OR SO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE WEATHER STATION AT HEBBRONVILLE RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 38 MPH...62 KM/HR...WITH A PEAK GUST OF 52 MPH...84 KM/HR. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS ARE VERY LIKELY TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...27.5 N...99.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 100 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at www.alawx.com From lawrencer@oppshell.com Thu Jul 24 09:56:17 2008 Received: from lawrencer (echolink.opparc.org [12.181.10.200]) by ccbbs.oppshell.com (8.12.8/8.12.8) with SMTP id m6OEuHw3008269 for ; Thu, 24 Jul 2008 09:56:17 -0500 Message-Id: <200807241456.m6OEuHw3008269@ccbbs.oppshell.com> Date: Thu, 24 Jul 2008 09:56:17 -0500 TO: From: wx-alert@alawx.com Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion X-BeenThere: wx-alert@alawx.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 Precedence: list Reply-To: Weather Alert List List-Id: Weather Alert List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 24 Jul 2008 14:56:18 -0000 >From the South Alabama SkyNet (http://www.alawx.com) WTNT44 KNHC 241440 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 1100 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2008 RADAR AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT DOLLY STILL HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION ACCOMPANIED BY NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE BANDS. THE MOST PROMINENT CONVECTION IS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 40 KNOTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OBSERVATIONS WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 48 KNOTS EARLIER THISD MORNING. AS DOLLY MOVES FARTHER INLAND...IT IS EXPECTED TO TO WEAKEN AND SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR SO. DESPITE WEAKENING... DOLLY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINS AND SIGNIFICANT INLAND FLOODING. THE CENTER OF DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 8 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SO THIS GENERAL TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION IN A DAY OR SO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/1500Z 27.5N 99.3W 40 KT 12HR VT 25/0000Z 28.0N 100.5W 30 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 25/1200Z 28.5N 103.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR