From wx-alert at alawx.com Tue Sep 30 06:57:16 2008 From: wx-alert at alawx.com (wx-alert@alawx.com) Date: Tue Sep 30 05:58:02 2008 Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin Message-ID: <200809301057.m8UAvxn0015658@ccbbs.oppshell.com> WTNT32 KNHC 300233 TCPAT2 BULLETIN SUBTROPICAL STORM LAURA ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122008 1100 PM AST MON SEP 29 2008 ..LAURA TURNS NORTHWARD... AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM LAURA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.4 WEST OR ABOUT 585 MILES...940 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. THE STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 220 MILES...350 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...39.0 N...48.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at http://www.alawx.com From wx-alert at alawx.com Tue Sep 30 06:57:17 2008 From: wx-alert at alawx.com (wx-alert@alawx.com) Date: Tue Sep 30 05:58:02 2008 Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion Message-ID: <200809301058.m8UAvxn0015661@ccbbs.oppshell.com> WTNT42 KNHC 300234 TCDAT2 SUBTROPICAL STORM LAURA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122008 1100 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2008 OVERALL THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED A LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND THE SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE BELOW THEIR EARLIER PEAKS. INDEED...THE DEEP CONVECTION IS QUITE PALTRY AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 21Z CAUGHT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION...AND THESE DATA STILL SUPPORT 45-50 KT...SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS UNCHANGED. EVEN THOUGH THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS IS AROUND 70 N MI...SMALLER THAN FOR MANY SUBTROPICAL CYCLONES... LAURA IS STILL VERY MUCH INVOLVED WITH AN UPPER-LOW...WHICH IS A DEFINING CHARACTERISTIC OF A SUBTROPICAL STORM. I'M NOT INCLINED TO CALL THIS THING FULLY TROPICAL UNTIL IT DOES A BETTER JOB OF ERODING THE UPPER LOW. OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO THE UPPER-LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS LAURA MOVES INTO THE WESTERLIES...AND LAURA STILL COULD BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROP DRAMATICALLY ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK IN ABOUT 18 HOURS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED ONCE THAT HAPPENS...ALTHOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SUGGEST THAT LAURA COULD INTENSIFY AND EXPAND AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW. BASED ON THIS LATTER GUIDANCE...THE FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED AT 48 AND 72 HOURS. LAURA IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...360/8...BETWEEN A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AZORES AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA THAT CONTAINS THE REMNANTS OF KYLE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LAURA WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD BETWEEN THESE FEATURES AND ENTER THE WESTERLIES IN ABOUT THREE DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND A LITTLE LEFT OF AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/0300Z 39.0N 48.4W 50 KT 12HR VT 30/1200Z 40.3N 48.4W 55 KT 24HR VT 01/0000Z 42.6N 47.9W 50 KT 36HR VT 01/1200Z 45.3N 46.8W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 02/0000Z 48.5N 45.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 03/0000Z 53.5N 39.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 04/0000Z 55.0N 27.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 05/0000Z 55.0N 13.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at http://www.alawx.com From wx-alert at alawx.com Tue Sep 30 06:57:18 2008 From: wx-alert at alawx.com (wx-alert@alawx.com) Date: Tue Sep 30 05:58:03 2008 Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook Message-ID: <200809301058.m8UAw0n0015667@ccbbs.oppshell.com> ABNT20 KNHC 300551 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON SUBTROPICAL STORM LAURA...LOCATED ABOUT 585 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD OVER FLORIDA AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED HERE OR ELSEWHERE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON LAURA ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT32 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON LAURA ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at http://www.alawx.com From wx-alert at alawx.com Tue Sep 30 06:57:18 2008 From: wx-alert at alawx.com (wx-alert@alawx.com) Date: Tue Sep 30 05:58:05 2008 Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Discussion Message-ID: <200809301058.m8UAw1n0015670@ccbbs.oppshell.com> AXNT20 KNHC 301044 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON SEP 30 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ..SPECIAL FEATURES... SUBTROPICAL STORM LAURA IS CENTERED NEAR 40.3N 49.0W AT 30/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 420 NM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING N AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. LAURA IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NNE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH. LAURA IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH AND OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS LAURA MOVES INTO THE WESTERLIES...AND LAURA STILL COULD BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER LAURA WILL BE MOVING OVER STEADILY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HR. IN THE REGION...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 21N43W 26N37W TO BEYOND 32N30W ENHANCED BY THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. ..TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V CURVATURE OBSERVED IN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS INDICATED BY MIMIC TPW ANIMATION. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN THE WAVE AXIS AND 35W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W FROM 10N-20N MOVING W 5-10 KT. WELL DEFINED BROAD SWIRL IN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 15N. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ALSO BROADLY DISTRIBUTED AROUND WAVE AS INDICATED BY MIMIC TPW ANIMATION. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE FROM 17N-20N. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W/59W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE POSITION IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AS THE AREA IS UNDER DENSE HIGH CLOUDS. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. ..THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 11N12W 9N17W 11N30W 7N42W 7N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF W AFRICA WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST FROM 9N-15N. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ FROM 38W-41W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-4N E OF 3W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. ..DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE CENTRAL US AND MOST OF THE GULF W OF 84W WITH A COMPLICATED SYSTEM OVER THE E GULF CONSISTING OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS S FLORIDA NEAR 26N81W TO A 1011 MB LOW N OF THE YUCATAN NEAR 24N87W THEN S OVER THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE TO 19N93W. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW IS DEVELOPING OVER THE YUCATAN AND WILL BE MOVING N ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH. BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF DRAWING MOIST UPPER FLOW N OVER THE AREA PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF A LINE FROM N FLORIDA NEAR 30N84W TO THE YUCATAN NEAR 21N87W AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN E OF 94W. THE GULF W OF 90W IS UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR BUT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TO CREATE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND REMARKABLE CLEAR SKIES WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST FROM PANAMA CITY FLORIDA TO LA PESCA MEXICO. CARIBBEAN SEA... WEAK UPPER LOW IS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONGER UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC THAT COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER RIDGE IS BRINGING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR TO THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 76W LEAVING THE W CARIBBEAN UNDER DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS USHERED IN ON MODERATE TRADE WINDS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF A LINE FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N73W 16N76W TO CUBA NEAR 20N76W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SUBTROPICAL STORM LAURA IS LOCATED N OF THE REGION...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ENE TO 31N53W DRAWING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 22N79W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO 32N70W. THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS S FLORIDA FROM NEAR PALM BEACH INTO THE W ATLC TO 30N77W. BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE IS A 1017 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 26N60W. THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL STORM LAURA EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N FROM 35W-50W AND IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LAURA. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NE ATLC N OF 25N E OF 21W. THE TROPICS IS DOMINATED BY THE TYPICAL E/W UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED JUST W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDING W TO NEAR 50W. $$ WALLACE WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at http://www.alawx.com From wx-alert at alawx.com Tue Sep 30 07:31:53 2008 From: wx-alert at alawx.com (wx-alert@alawx.com) Date: Tue Sep 30 06:32:38 2008 Subject: [Wx-alert] Hazardous Weather Outlook Message-ID: <200809301132.m8UBWan0015791@ccbbs.oppshell.com> FLUS44 KMOB 301130 HWOMOB HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 615 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2008 ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078- 079-011200- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY- COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY- GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- 615 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2008 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA. DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS ALABAMA TO NEAR THE GULF COAST THIS EVENING...THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OUT OVER THE GULF WATERS LATE TONIGHT. THE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION REMAINS VERY DRY... ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LAYERS...AND AS A RESULT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND IN THE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW ALREADY OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. NO HAZARDOUS OR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CONTINUED RAINFREE CONDITIONS AND FALL LIKE TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS NOT ANTICIPATED. $$ This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at http://www.alawx.com From wx-alert at alawx.com Tue Sep 30 07:43:06 2008 From: wx-alert at alawx.com (wx-alert@alawx.com) Date: Tue Sep 30 06:43:51 2008 Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook Message-ID: <200809301143.m8UBhnn0015833@ccbbs.oppshell.com> ABNT20 KNHC 301131 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON SUBTROPICAL STORM LAURA...LOCATED ABOUT 485 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...WESTERN CUBA...FLORIDA...AND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED HERE OR ELSEWHERE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BERG/PASCH WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at http://www.alawx.com From wx-alert at alawx.com Tue Sep 30 10:46:15 2008 From: wx-alert at alawx.com (wx-alert@alawx.com) Date: Tue Sep 30 09:47:01 2008 Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin Message-ID: <200809301446.m8UEkwn0016496@ccbbs.oppshell.com> WTNT32 KNHC 301433 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM LAURA ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122008 1100 AM AST TUE SEP 30 2008 ..LAURA BECOMES TROPICAL...BUT NOT FOR LONG... AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LAURA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.8 WEST OR ABOUT 435 MILES...700 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. LAURA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. LAURA CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE...AND A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND LAURA COULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...41.2 N...48.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BERG/PASCH This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at http://www.alawx.com From wx-alert at alawx.com Tue Sep 30 10:46:16 2008 From: wx-alert at alawx.com (wx-alert@alawx.com) Date: Tue Sep 30 09:47:02 2008 Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion Message-ID: <200809301447.m8UEkxn0016499@ccbbs.oppshell.com> WTNT42 KNHC 301433 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM LAURA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122008 1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2008 WHILE SOMEWHAT OF A PARADOX...LAURA CAN NOW BE DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE DESPITE THE FACT THAT IT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WATERS. THE ONE ASPECT WHICH WAS HOLDING US BACK FROM DECLARING IT TROPICAL WAS THE UPPER LOW COLLOCATED WITH THE SYSTEM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS FEATURE HAS BECOME OFFSET AND STRETCHED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF LAURA...AND UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS NOW EXPANDING TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. IN ADDITION...SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS HAS CONTINUED TO CONTRACT TO ABOUT 60 NM. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE NOT ALL THAT COLD...BUT THAT IS QUITE NORMAL FOR HIGH-LATITUDE TROPICAL CYCLONES DUE TO THE LOWER TROPOPAUSE. FRANKLY...LAURA NOW LOOKS LIKE A TROPICAL STORM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT BASED ON AN 0827 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS ALTHOUGH THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS HAS BEEN SHRINKING. LAURA SHOULD BE ABLE TO HOLD THAT INTENSITY FOR ONLY ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO BEFORE MOVING OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 18C. GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS INDICATE THAT THERMAL ADVECTION AROUND THE SYSTEM BECOMES MORE PROMINENT LATER TONIGHT...AND LAURA IS EXPECTED TO BE EXTRATROPICAL IN 24 HOURS OR SO AS IT MIGRATES INTO THE COLDER AIR MASS. SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH 48 HOURS IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE COLDER OCEAN WATERS AND MARGINAL BAROCLINIC FORCING. THEREAFTER...SOME RE-STRENGTHENING AND AN EXPANSION OF THE WIND FIELD COULD OCCUR AS THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW RACES EAST WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES TOWARDS THE NORTHERN BRITISH ISLES. EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE AT 36-48 HOURS...THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE GLOBAL MODELS FOR THIS CYCLE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/1500Z 41.2N 48.8W 50 KT 12HR VT 01/0000Z 42.8N 48.4W 50 KT 24HR VT 01/1200Z 45.5N 47.4W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 02/0000Z 48.7N 45.6W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 02/1200Z 51.7N 43.6W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 03/1200Z 56.0N 35.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 04/1200Z 57.0N 19.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 05/1200Z 58.0N 3.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER BERG/PASCH WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at http://www.alawx.com From wx-alert at alawx.com Tue Sep 30 14:04:41 2008 From: wx-alert at alawx.com (wx-alert@alawx.com) Date: Tue Sep 30 13:05:27 2008 Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook Message-ID: <200809301805.m8UI5Pn0017033@ccbbs.oppshell.com> ABNT20 KNHC 301800 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM LAURA...LOCATED ABOUT 435 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC...FLORIDA...THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WESTERN CUBA...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BERG/PASCH This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at http://www.alawx.com From wx-alert at alawx.com Tue Sep 30 14:04:42 2008 From: wx-alert at alawx.com (wx-alert@alawx.com) Date: Tue Sep 30 13:05:29 2008 Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Discussion Message-ID: <200809301805.m8UI5Qn0017036@ccbbs.oppshell.com> AXNT20 KNHC 301758 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ..SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM LAURA IS CENTERED NEAR 41.2N 48.8W AT 30/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 375 NM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING N AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. LAURA CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE AND A TURN TO THE N-NE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LAURA IS QUICKLY BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERLIES...AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 42N-46N BETWEEN 42W-49W. ..TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED WITH INVERTED-V CURVATURE OBSERVED IN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD FIELD. SAHARAN DUST FOLLOWS TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS N OF 15N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 32W-35W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W FROM 11N-20N MOVING W 5-10 KT. LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXHIBITS INVERTED-V SIGNATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH MID-LEVEL ENHANCEMENT DUE TO AN UPPER TROUGH LOCATED WEST OF THE WAVE PROVIDING SWLY UPPER FLOW ALOFT. POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 42W-48W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE HAS BECOME ILL-DEFINED AS IT NEARS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND POSITION IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OR CONVECTION. ..THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 10N13W 7N20W 10N31W 9N35W 8N42W 8N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 18W-22W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 31W-38W. ..DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE EASTERN US AND MOST OF THE GULF W OF 84W WITH A PAIR OF SURFACE LOWS OVER THE SERN GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC CROSSES SRN FLORIDA NEAR 26N81W TO A 1012 MB LOW IN THE SE GULF WATERS NEAR 25N84W. THE SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES SW TO A 1012 MB LOW NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N90W AND THEN S OVER THE WRN YUCATAN AND INTO SRN MEXICO. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF DRAWING MOIST UPPER FLOW N OVER THE SE GULF PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 81W-85W. THE GULF W OF 85W IS UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR. HOWEVER...AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 90W-93W. CARIBBEAN SEA... A WEAK UPPER LOW IS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 18N80W AND REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONGER UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC THAT COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER RIDGE IS BRINGING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR TO THE ERN CARIBBEAN E OF 75W LEAVING THE WRN CARIBBEAN UNDER DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 15N-21N W OF 75W USHERED IN ON MODERATE TRADE WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN. THE ITCZ EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 10N AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... TROPICAL STORM LAURA IS LOCATED N OF THE REGION...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED NORTH OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 23N67W AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NORTH TO 32N70W DRAWING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE WRN CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC W OF 73W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N77W TO NEAR BOCA RATON FLORIDA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS E OF LINE FROM DAYTONA BEACH TO ST. PETERSBURG FLORIDA AND N OF 24N ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS. BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE IS A 1017 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 25N66W. UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE N/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS A SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N57W AND EXTENDS SW TO NEAR 29N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 55W-61W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NE ATLC N OF 25N E OF 19W. THE ERN AND CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC IS DOMINATED BY AN E/W UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDING W TO NEAR 50W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1033 MB HIGH IS LOCATED N OF THE AZORES AND EXTENDS A RIDGE SWD TO NEAR 22N. $$ HUFFMAN WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at http://www.alawx.com From wx-alert at alawx.com Tue Sep 30 16:37:21 2008 From: wx-alert at alawx.com (wx-alert@alawx.com) Date: Tue Sep 30 15:38:07 2008 Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin Message-ID: <200809302038.m8UKc6n0017488@ccbbs.oppshell.com> WTNT32 KNHC 302035 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM LAURA ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122008 500 PM AST TUE SEP 30 2008 ..LAURA EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL SOON... AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LAURA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.6 WEST OR ABOUT 375 MILES...605 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. LAURA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LAURA WILL BEGIN TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS TONIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL ON WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...42.3 N...48.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BERG/PASCH WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at http://www.alawx.com From wx-alert at alawx.com Tue Sep 30 16:37:22 2008 From: wx-alert at alawx.com (wx-alert@alawx.com) Date: Tue Sep 30 15:38:08 2008 Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion Message-ID: <200809302038.m8UKc6n0017491@ccbbs.oppshell.com> WTNT42 KNHC 302035 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM LAURA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122008 500 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2008 A 1653 UTC CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE CONFIRMS THAT LAURA STILL HAS MAXIMUM WINDS OF 50 KT. IN ADDITION...THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE STORM'S CENTRAL FEATURES HAS NOT CHANGED APPRECIABLY SINCE THIS MORNING SO THERE IS LITTLE REASON TO CHANGE THE INITIAL INTENSITY. ALTHOUGH LAURA IS CURRENTLY A TROPICAL CYCLONE...VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT SOME THERMAL ADVECTION IS BEGINNING TO OCCUR AS COLD AIR STRATUS CLOUDS WRAP AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS INDICATE THAT THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT... AND LAURA COULD BE FULLY NON-TROPICAL IN 18-24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS NOW OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 21C AND IS QUICKLY LOSING ITS TROPICAL ENERGY SOURCE...SO SOME WEAKENING IS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...BAROCLINIC FORCING WILL BECOME MORE PROMINENT AS THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES...AND SOME RE-STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR. LAURA IS NOW MOVING JUST EAST OF DUE NORTH AT 010/12. MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 5 DAYS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK SHOWS A SLIGHT WESTWARD BEND AT 36-48 HOURS DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUT AFTER THAT LAURA IS ACCELERATED EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. A 120-HOUR POSITION IS NOT GIVEN IN THIS FORECAST SINCE IT WOULD BE LOCATED EAST OF THE PRIME MERIDIAN OVER THE NORTH SEA...AND THE LOW COULD BE ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY THEN ANYWAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/2100Z 42.3N 48.6W 50 KT 12HR VT 01/0600Z 44.0N 48.0W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 01/1800Z 46.8N 46.8W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 02/0600Z 50.0N 45.1W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 02/1800Z 53.1N 42.4W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 03/1800Z 56.5N 31.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 04/1800Z 57.0N 17.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 05/1800Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER BERG/PASCH WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at http://www.alawx.com From wx-alert at alawx.com Tue Sep 30 19:55:45 2008 From: wx-alert at alawx.com (wx-alert@alawx.com) Date: Tue Sep 30 18:56:32 2008 Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Outlook Message-ID: <200809302356.m8UNuVn0018092@ccbbs.oppshell.com> ABNT20 KNHC 302344 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM LAURA...LOCATED ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER AVILA WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at http://www.alawx.com From wx-alert at alawx.com Tue Sep 30 20:11:01 2008 From: wx-alert at alawx.com (wx-alert@alawx.com) Date: Tue Sep 30 19:11:48 2008 Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Tropical Discussion Message-ID: <200810010011.m910Bln0018132@ccbbs.oppshell.com> AXNT20 KNHC 010005 CCA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ..SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM LAURA IS CENTERED NEAR 42.3N 48.6W AT 30/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 325 NM SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING N AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 NM FROM THE CENTER OF LAURA. LAURA IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AND TURN TOWARD THE NNE TONIGHT. LAURA WILL BEGIN TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS TONIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL ON WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONALLY...LAURA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 42N-44N BETWEEN 45W-50W. ..TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W/34W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS INVERTED-V CLOUD PATTERN ALONG WAVE AXIS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF WAVE AXIS N OF 12N...AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OF WAVE AXIS S OF 10N. SAHARAN DUST CONTINUES MOVING TO THE W IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE N OF 15N. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W FROM 12N-22N MOVING W 5-10 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS INVERTED-V CLOUD PATTERN ALONG WAVE AXIS...WITH SURFACE WINDS VEERING UPON WAVE PASSAGE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 43W-45W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM OF WAVE AXIS S OF 15N. SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES DEPICT WEAK COUNTERCLOCKWISE CURVATURE IN SURFACE FLOW NEAR WAVE AXIS. ..THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 11N13W 10N20W 11N31W 9N40W 9N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOVING TO THE W OVER W AFRICA FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 10W-17W...AFFECTING GAMBIA AND GUINEA-BISSAU. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 20W-24W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 41W-49W. ..DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF. STRONG AND MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT E OF THE TROF AXIS IS PROVIDING UPPER SUPPORT FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR SE AND S GULF...FROM S FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ALSO OVER CUBA. THIS ACTIVITY IS FURTHER BEING ENHANCED BY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERAL SURFACE FEATURES INCLUDING A SURFACE LOW JUST OFF THE W COAST OF FL NEAR 26N83W...ANOTHER SURFACE LOW JUST N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N89W...A SURFACE TROUGH THAT CONNECTS THESE TWO LOWS...AND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT TRAILS S FROM THE LOW NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO NEAR 17N90W. DEEP DRY AIR IN THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND SUBSIDENCE W OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS ARE LIMITING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE CENTRAL AND W GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE SW ATLANTIC NEAR 22N66W. STABLE CONDITIONS AND DRY AIR BENEATH THIS RIDGE ARE RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 69W-72W APPROACHING S HISPANIOLA. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF IS BEGINNING TO BRING MORE UPPER SW FLOW TO THE W CARIBBEAN. THIS FLOW IS DIFFLUENT OVER THE W CARIBBEAN...WHERE ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 81W-87W...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS INCLUDING HONDURAS...BELIZE...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. UPPER SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO ENHANCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CUBA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER N COLOMBIA AND N VENEZUELA NEAR THE ITCZ...AND THIS CONVECTION IS PROPAGATING TO THE N NEAR THE ADJACENT CARIBBEAN WATERS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... TROPICAL STORM LAURA IS LOCATED N OF THE REGION...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS IS BRINGING STRONG AND MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT TO THE W ATLANTIC. THIS IS PROVIDING THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW ATLANTIC FROM 25N-32N W OF 72W... INCLUDING S FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS FURTHER BEING ENHANCED BY A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N73W TO S FLORIDA NEAR 28N80W. E OF THESE FEATURES...A LARGE UPPER HIGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND IS CENTERED NEAR 23N65W. DRY AIR...SUBSIDENCE...AND STABLE CONDITIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS HIGH ARE RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...THE CORRESPONDING SURFACE HIGH HAS WEAKENED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER AND SURFACE TROUGH FURTHER TO THE W. MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS ARE STREAMING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH N OF 28N BETWEEN 60W-67W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N58W TO 29N60W AND IS NE OF THE UPPER HIGH...FURTHER ENHANCING SOME OF THE CLOUDINESS. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IS N OF 23N BETWEEN 33W-54W...WHICH SHARPENS FROM 13N-23N BETWEEN 47W-54W. THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY AN E/W UPPER RIDGE ALONG 16N EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO NEAR 48W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD OVER THE E ATLC N OF 17N FROM A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 44N25W. $$ COHEN WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at http://www.alawx.com From wx-alert at alawx.com Tue Sep 30 22:43:38 2008 From: wx-alert at alawx.com (wx-alert@alawx.com) Date: Tue Sep 30 21:44:26 2008 Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Bulletin Message-ID: <200810010244.m912iOn0018554@ccbbs.oppshell.com> WTNT32 KNHC 010233 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM LAURA ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122008 1100 PM AST TUE SEP 30 2008 ..LAURA EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL SOON... AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LAURA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 43.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.0 WEST OR ABOUT 330 MILES...530 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. LAURA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LAURA IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...43.6 N...48.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at http://www.alawx.com From wx-alert at alawx.com Tue Sep 30 22:43:39 2008 From: wx-alert at alawx.com (wx-alert@alawx.com) Date: Tue Sep 30 21:44:27 2008 Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Forecast/Advisory Message-ID: <200810010244.m912iPn0018557@ccbbs.oppshell.com> WTNT22 KNHC 010232 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122008 0300 UTC WED OCT 01 2008 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.6N 48.0W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......200NE 200SE 75SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 360SE 270SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.6N 48.0W AT 01/0300Z AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 42.9N 48.3W FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 45.5N 47.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...180NE 150SE 75SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 48.5N 45.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 52.5N 43.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 55.0N 40.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...300NE 240SE 90SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 56.5N 27.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...300NE 240SE 90SW 180NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 56.5N 13.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 43.6N 48.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at http://www.alawx.com From wx-alert at alawx.com Tue Sep 30 22:43:39 2008 From: wx-alert at alawx.com (wx-alert@alawx.com) Date: Tue Sep 30 21:44:29 2008 Subject: [Wx-alert] Atlantic Storm Discussion Message-ID: <200810010244.m912iPn0018560@ccbbs.oppshell.com> WTNT42 KNHC 010233 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM LAURA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122008 1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2008 I WAS TEMPTED TO TERMINATE ADVISORIES ON LAURA TONIGHT SINCE CONVECTION HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME MUCH LESS DISTINCT. HOWEVER...LAURA CANNOT BE CALLED A REMNANT LOW YET AND IT IS NOT EXTRATROPICAL ENOUGH TO BE CALLED ONE. BASED ON SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB AND CONTINUITY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN TO 45 KNOTS. LAURA IS MOVING OVER COLD WATERS AND IS BECOMING INVOLVED WITH COLD AIR. THIS SUGGESTS THAT LAURA SHOULD BE EXTRATROPICAL IN 12 HOUR OR LESS. ONCE EXTRATROPICAL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN INTENSITY ARE ANTICIPATED. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE MOTION OF THE LARGE HOLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER IS 015 AT 14 KNOTS. LAURA SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AHEAD OF A VERY DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. IT SHOULD THEN TURN EASTWARD ADVECTED BY THE WESTERLIES. THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/0300Z 43.6N 48.0W 45 KT 12HR VT 01/1200Z 45.5N 47.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 02/0000Z 48.5N 45.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 02/1200Z 52.5N 43.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 03/0000Z 55.0N 40.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 04/0000Z 56.5N 27.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 05/0000Z 56.5N 13.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 06/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER AVILA WWWW This weather bulletin was brought to you by South Alabama SkyNet at http://www.alawx.com